developed highly reliable predictive and prescriptive tool. It can be applied to gamification.

1. DISRUPTIVE METHODS
FOR
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
WWW.CEMSENGEZER.COM
BLACK BOX ANALYTICS

2. AGENDA
 Mission description
 Proven cases with the method

3. MISSION DESCRIPTION
 proven prediction solutions for competitve advantages:
 national, international leagues
 for better decisions: alerting unseen risks/opportunities with known methods
 prescriptive solutions:
 recipes for better results with unconventional methodologies
 revision to current business models
 view support to working models

4. FOCUS:
reliable prediction
reliable recipes
reliable optimization
UNIQUE SOLUTIONS TO BUSINESS

5. NATIONAL TEAM CASE
best time for brands to invest: low volatility uptrend in long term
bargain investment: high ROI

6. ARSENAL CASE (EUL, ECL)
still “under 100”: warning for
coming risks&opportunities with
different natures than past
“under 100” region (2012) => lower
performance, for next years (see
falling red curve)

7. ARSENAL CASE (EPL)
falling “under 100” alerting high
risk : need of different recipes to
recover in long term
“underestimated” EPL teams have
“-1 value” => better succes in next
years

8. TEST WITH PAST RESULTS
(Seasonal Prediction : %78)
 Similar results for lower leagues
EPL
final ranking 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Ars enal 5 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4
Bournemouth 9 16
Brighton&HA
Burnley 16 19 18
C. Palace 14 15 10 11
Chels ea 1 10 1 3 3 6 2 1 3 2 2 1
Everton 7 11 11 5 6 7 7 8 5 5 7 11
Hudders field T.
Leices ter City 12 1 4
Liverpool 4 8 6 2 7 8 6 7 2 4 3 3
M. City 3 4 2 1 2 1 3 5 10 9 14 15
M. United 6 5 4 7 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2
New Cas tle U. 18 15 10 16 5 12 18 12 13 7
Southampton 8 6 7 8 14
Stoke City 13 9 9 9 13 14 13 11 12
Swans ea 15 12 8 12 9 11
Tottenham 2 3 5 6 5 4 5 4 8 11 5 5
Watford 17 13
WBA 10 14 13 17 8 10 11
WHU 11 7 12 13 10
Seasonal prediction average: 78%

9. SPORTIVE ASSETS (TEAM/PLAYER):
TREND PREDICTION -PAST TEST
RESULTS-
Predicted matchs # >5,15< >15,40< >40,70< 70+
Trend reliability (main trend) %60 %70 %75 %85
League (trend) %50 %70 %70 %85
Non League(trend) %50 %70 %70 %85
weekday(trend) %50 %65 %70 %85
weekend (trend) %50 %65 %70 %85
# of wins (trend) %50 %60 %65 %70
# of non wins(trend) %55 %60 %65 %70
# of goal scored(trend) %55 %60 %65 %70
# of goal conceded (trend) %55 %60 %60 %70
goal margin(trend) %55 %55 %65 %70
PREDICITON SUCCESS RATIO: AVERAGE FOR WHOLE LEAGUES

10. Personal
 Web site: www.cemsengezer.com
 New method-model support for competitive advantage
 : www.sportsmedicineturkey.com/en/about-us/our-consultants
 Instructor on “Sports Math” for new method development
 : http://sem.medipol.edu.tr/Egitim/Icerik/104
 Financial markets commentator:
 www.paraborsa.net