The document discusses Darwin's theory of natural selection and survival of the fittest in nature and how it can be applied to business. It argues that in a changing environment, the most fit companies are those that: 1) Have foreseeing capacity to understand trends and future impacts. 2) Have flexible structures and reserve resources to make required changes. 3) Can shape their own future environment through new technologies and persuasive future narratives. The key to survival and success is foreseeing capacity, flexibility and resilience to change, and ability to shape one's own future. Monitoring imaginary future scenarios or "wild cards" can help businesses prepare for potential impacts. Creating positive wild card narratives can also influence stakeholders.

1. Stories for Survival and Succes in
Nature and in Business
Victor van Rij
(University of Amsterdam)
Special for T-Mobile
8 January 2015
Quotes please with reference to the author, honor values more
than money
Contact : vvanrij@live.nl

2. Darwin always stressed the ruthless struggle for survival
in Nature , which many times was used to explain the
competitive nature of enterprises
“Evolution is a
matter of
natural
selection
(survival) of the
fittest”
1869

3. Of course the fittest survive
But what does fit mean?
• The strongest , the fastest, the poisonous, the invisible, the
collective, the flying, swimming, jumping? Great numbers , mass?
• The best senses to observe the environment continuously and fast
response systems (to escape or to catch a prey,)?
• The capacity to think , how to react the best way (instinct and
intelligence)
• The capacity to think forward (anticipate) to develop survival
strategy (and even to create coalitions)
But on the long run
• The capacity to adapt quick enough if the environment changes

4. ?
Although found on the internet, Darwin never reached this conclusion
but in 1963 Leon C. Megginson contributed this wisdom to Darwin

5. Most responsive to change
• The ones that foresee (in)evitable change (timely
earlier than others)
• The ones that have “flexible structures”” and
“knowledge about the change” as well as reserve
“energy and material*” to be able to change
themselves in an appropriate adaptive way if
environmental changes requires this
• The ones that can shape their environment
(forgotten by Megginson and Darwin)

6. Applied to companies this means
In a (fast) changing environment the most fit companies are the ones
that:
• build up Foreseeing capacity: to monitor and understand not only
trends, competitors behaviour, regulation and so on, but also all
other information about the future, that may impact the company
and its (core) business (opportunities) in a positive or negative way.
• reserve enough energy, capital intellectual resources for new
response
• can shape their own environment – by introduction of new
technologies and services etc But also by envisioning persuasive
(game changing) future narratives which accompany the use of
these new technologies and services

7. Essentials for survival and succes
• Foreseeing capacity, but what to foresee and
how to use it ?
• Flexible structure , reserve materials (staff
financial means) for required changes of the
business and organisation - Resilience
• Shaping your own future environment but
how?

8. What to foresee?
IMPACT RICH ISSUES
• Trends etc but only if they can impact …..our
business , values and objectives coming from
STEEP domains
• Wild cards: Potential future (Sudden) Changes
that impact directly or indirectly … our core
values/objectives /business in a tremendous
way, also in dimensions of STEEP

9. The principles of Environmental Scanning
Mc Donalds Success

10. FUTURE
PRESENT
Horizon scanning
Applies the principles of Environmental
Scanning taking into account
But with focus on future perspectives

11. The principles of Horizonscanning
ISSUES
S
T
E
E
P
V

12. How to use Horizonscan
1.CORE
OBJECTIVES
Present Grand
Challenges
2. Seeds for change
coming from STEEP
domains
3.Combine 4. Analyse - Story
5. Integration
What Strategy?
Participative Processes with 200
respondents from Science,
Enterprises , Policy , Arts etc
Desk work

13. Definition wild cards
• Game Changer - a (sudden) event or series (cascade)
of events with a small probability which by its large
disruptive impact causes us to see the world through
different eyes (shaking and shaping – earthquakes of
the mental landscape)
• Surprising – which we did not foresee or did not want
to foresee
• Often erratic in themselves - unpredictable in their
(r)evolution
• Positive and/or negative impact ( but subjective)
• May take place on all levels (personal, local, world
wide)

14. Related topics
• Wild Cards , Out of the Blue (Petersen)
• Black Swans ((Nassim Nicholas Taleb) - unavoidable
elements of the future written in the stars
• Tipping points (Gladwell) – the mass or the new idea
gets suddenly the overhand after a long non visible
increase – think about the bath tube flooding after
the tap as not closed
• Break throughs – new inventions that opens new
doorways
• Revolutions, crisis, transitions, transformations etc
• Accident with a clear coincidence character (+ and -)

15. Types of wild cards (past/present)
1. Wild Cards that really ocurred
2. Imaginary Wild cards:
- Narratives of wild cards that did not occur but
which already through their description had
impact
- New Narratives of wild cards claiming huge
impact
5/17/2018 15

16. Purpose of Imaginary Wild Cards
• Persuading (to buy or to follow)- sell card
• To create a Selffulfilling positive prophecy -
wish card
• To create a self denying negative prophecy –
warning card

17. PAST PRESENT FUTURE
REALITY
3.A.a
WORLD WAR 1 (1914)
WORLD WAR 2 (1939)
PENICILINE (1928)
DISCOVERY DNA (1953)
INTERNET (1974)
CUBA CRISIS (1963)
BHOPAL(1984)
GLASNOST-BERLIN WALL (1989)
9-11 (2001)
SUBPRIME FINANCIAL CRISIS (2008)
ICE LAND VOLCANO (2010)
GULF OF MEXICO (2010)
FUKUSHIMA DAICHI (2011)
3.B.a , b en c
MAJOR EARTH QUAKE or VOLCANO?
VISLOZE-OCEANEN?
ABRUPT IMPACT CLIMATE CHANGE (2014)?
COLD NUCLEAR FUSION (1989)?
HYBRID FISSION-FUSION?
DESERTEC(2009)?
REGREENING THE WORLD?
KURZWEILS SINGULARITY (?)
NEW NUCLEAIR CONFLICT (2010)?
3.C.a, b en c ??????
CAMPO FPHLEGERI OUTBURST
OCEANS FILLED WITH FISH
NEW WORKI LIFE BALANCE
COLD NUCLEAR FUSION REALITY
WORLDWIDE REGREENING POLICY
IMAGINARY
3.A.b
VERELENDUNG (1867)
JEWS WILL CONQUER EUROPE (1936)
SILENT SPRING (1962)
LIMITS OF GROWTH (1972)
NUCLEAIRE WINTER (1957)
I HAD A DREAM (1968)
GLOBAL WARMING (1988)
“6 DEGREES (Lynas) (2011)
THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW (2004)
3.A.c
LIFE ELIXER
FREE ENERGY
3.B.a, b en c
FREE ENERGY ?
SUDDEN INCREASE MIGRATION PRESSURE?
EU RACISM XENOFOBISM RISING?
EU AGISM RISING?
MUSLIMS WILL CONQUER EUROPE (2005)
EU NEW FASCISM RISING?
SNEAKING BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF RF?
SUDDEN INCREASE MIGRATION PRESSURE?
MAGIC BULLET KANKER?
EFFECT VAN HYDROGEN IN ATMOSPHERE?
SUDDEN CLIMATE CHANGE?
SUDDEN INCREASE MIGRATION PRESSURE?
HYBRID FISSION-FUSION?
REGREENING THE WORLD?
KURZWEILS SINGULARITY?
NUCLEAIR WAR?
AGEISM?
VREEMDELINGENHAAT
SNEAKING BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF RF?
MAGIC BULLET KANKER
EFFECTS OF HYDROGEN IN ATMOSPHERE

18. STRENGTH IMAGINARY WILD CARDS
IMAGINARY WILD CARDS are STRONG NARRATIVES ON WILD CARDS THAT MAY OCCUR OR
THAT BY THEIR COMMUNICATION ARE INFLUENCING PRESENT DAY DECISIONS WITH GREAT
IMPACT
THE STRENGTH IS DEPENDENT ON THE IMPACT THEY MAY HAVE which CONNECTS TO
• The claimed Impact by intiators
• plausibility of the storyline (towards the people it influences) including fomal evidence
basis
• Shape and content (use of language - audiovisual aspects – evoking emotions –referring
to the ineterest of targeted groups – fear hopes)
• The messenger , his followers , opponents and adversaries (Authrority, Charism, use of
Persuasive Psychology methods)
• Timing (of the communication , actuality and in respect of competitive narratives that
may distract the attention of the audience)
• The receptivity of the target group (Economic situation, boredom, frustration, etc)
• Interaction and competition with other narratives and real time events
• The fact that they really may occur

19. THREE WISE THINGS TO DO
for business with wild cards
• Learn from the past wild cards (imaginative and
real occurred ones) and how they effected your
core business
• Monitor the present strong imaginary wild cards
that maybe impacting directly or indirectly your
core business - discuss these for awarenes or
policy measures (+ and -)
• Create Positive imaginary wild cards that are
persuasive for you stakeholders and clients

20. 20
MONITORING THE STRONG
NARRATIVES
Search with the rights keyword strings: Non participative /
written and audiovisuals (all digital ) sources
• Systematische internet scanning (google, bing etc) with
relevant search strings
• Text mining etc
Search paticipative: ask discuss with (internal and external)
stakeholders & experts
• Survey/interviews/essays
• Geïnitieerde Wiki, Blogs/linked In /and others like Facebook
• Geinitieerde Twitter
• Workhops etc
Monitor further discussions on Strong narratives that are
identified, prioritise and discuss the most important ones in
Strategy meetings

21. CREATE STRONG NARRATIVES
• Organise creative workshops , with stakeholders/
experts/ strangers to create strong wild card
narratives that may become positive self-fulfilling
changes for your core business
• Use already existing wild cards narratives (from
the monitor) to evoke your own and to see how
they may interact
• Do not forget that changing core business is also
a wild card

22. The internet of things is still mostly a
wishing card

23. Making use of the wild card by
realizing the narrative
The internet of things – a beautiful consumers dream
– but who is going to make this true?
(T- Mobile of course , with the necessary
visualisation)
T - mobile connects everyone and everything
In the BTC market this will be mainly focused on
household and automotive – so more intranet of
things

24. See also :

25. Be aware : there may be wild cards
that may undermine your core
business

26. Gsm Base station report
Gezondheidsraad (2000)
Early warning example GSM and
health
(search behaviour on google)