Mitigação das mudanças climáticas e considerações sobre o setor elétrico - Ivan Ivanov (Universidade Tec. de Sofia)

< 1-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Prof. Dr. Ivan Ivanov,
Head of Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory
Technical University of Sofia, Bulgaria

< 2-17 >
Introduction
As background – general comparative analysis
of the impact of Europe and separate Bulgaria,
Brazil and separate Minas Gerais
CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July,
2015general
This short presentation aims
to show only a sketch of some
problems of climate change
and my understanding for a rational approach for
their mitigation, in particular for energy sector,
… 15 minutes not allow details.

< 3-17 >
The global reality
CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July,
2015general
Today’s world is a very different place for
live from the past. For instance for last
500 years the world’s population has
increased about 15 times. And it has
been industrialized without regard for
need to protect and respect nature.
And today only consumption of energy fuels
causes about 150 million tones of CO2 into
the atmosphere every day. The whole world
is affected by global warming.
It doesn’t matter where are CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, the
earth’s rotation and the uneven heating of the atmosphere by the
sun ensure that the CO2 is distributed randomly.
That’s why the target in UN climate negotiations is limiting the rise in
average global temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

< 4-17 >
Our survey for
transposition of
Directive 2001/80/EC
in Bulgaria (LCP-
TPP>50MW) shows
increased trend
after 2000 of the
energy composition.
CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Global energy consumption
and examples for Europe, Bulgaria and Brazil
Energy
consumption
in EU
Source
Number of
plants
Installed
capacity
(MW)
% Total
Hydro 633 73,678 72.1%
Gas 101 10,798 10.6%
Oil 568 4,446 4.4%
Biomass 269 3,693 3.6%
Nuclear 2 2,007 2%
Coal 7 1,415 1.4%
Wind 15 237 0.2%
Total 1,595 96,294 94.3%
Imports 5,850 5.7%
Electricity generation in Brazil, 2007
Total coal, oil and gas in Brazil are only 16 %, but in Europe – 79
%

Global energy consumption, GHG
and more for Europe…..
Primary Energy Consumption
In the basis of the definition of EU’
targets are:
 on the one hand – the needs and
energy consumption but not only
of the “big players” – Germany,
France, UK, Italy….and all 27
 on the other hand – their share
in the GHGs production - for 2010
⇒
One of the most important challenges of
the European Union now in the way to
the sustainable development is the
climate changes, and thence the goal is to
find most rationale decision of the
European "20-20-20" targets.
GHGs emissions 2010,
base year 1990 - Index (1990 = 100)

and more for Bulgaria and Brazil…..
Some indicators for comparison in energy sector
(approximately – data for different years after 2000)
No. Indicators Bulgaria Brazil times to BG
1 Territory [km2
] 110,994 8,515,767 76.7
2 Population 7,364,570 202,768,562 27.5
3 GDP /PPP (nominal) [$ per capita] 17,869 (8,037) 15,941 (11,281) 0.9 (1.4)
4 Installed capacity [MW] 12,700 121,000 9,5
5 Generation of electricity [TWh] 44 465 10.6
6 Installed nuclear capacity [MW] 1,926 1,884 0.98
7 Share of nuclear energy [%] 31.8 2.9 0.09
8 Share of renewable energy [%] 9.8 82 (77%
hydroelectric)
8.4
9 Average electricity use
[MWh per capita/year]
4.94 2.17 0.46
10 CO2-emission [Mt/year] 25.1 388 15.5
11 CO2-emission [Mt/MWh] 0.50 0.83 1.66
12 CO2-emission [t per capita/year] 3.4 1.91 0.56
Compared with Bulgaria the
installed capacity and
generation of electricity are
10 times more, but it is not
so much taking into account
the general indicators in the
table. In the same time 15.5
times CO2-emission more,
although the
hydroelectricity generation
over 80% of electricity
demands of Brazil.
Significant reason for the
specific CO2 of Brazil
compared with Bulgaria is
almost the same capacity,
but 10 times less share of
nuclear energy (data of
IAEA, 2015-04-30) with
“zero” CO2 emission.
Brazil is the world's fifth largest country, both by geographical area and by
population, the 10th largest energy consumer in the world and the largest in
South America. Its installed capacity is comparable to that of Italy and UK,
but with a much larger transmission network.

and more for Minas Gerais …..
As one actual publication in this field could be referred here: Xavier et al.: Energy
scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil: an integrated modeling exercise
using System Dynamics, Energy, Sustainability and Society 2013 3:17.
The Brazilian and Minas Gerais
state energy mix are
representatively.
The developed two scenarios: BAU
(business-as-usual), with no changes
in the energy profile of the state and
RIC (reduction of carbon intensity)
as a key goal
/with the same rates of economic growth and
energy demand but with stimulation of energy
efficiency policies and use of renewable energy/
shown the installed capacity in
Minas Gerais until 2030, but ⇒

taking into account very big
biomass potential of Brazil it
seems not enough presented in
the RIC, although the biomass
is underlined reported in the
Memorandum item according
to UNFCCC Guidelines.
On other hand for
comparison the attention
in Europe:
the 20% RES target for
2020 established in the
Directive 2009/28/EC on
the promotion of
renewable energy.
Share of RES in energy consumption’2010/ base the use 6% of RES in the EU (1996)

< 9-17 >
the RIC seems should be more ambitious than about
6 % difference in 2020.
Again as comparison with Europe: a reduction GHGs
emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels, as target for 2020
and
GHG emissions in
Minas Gerais in
the BAU and RIC
scenarios,
That’s why could be applied ⇒

Rational approach for GHG’ reduction
and climate changes’ mitigation,
as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais …..
Action-1
Application of Environmental Impact Assessment
(EIA) and Integrated Pollution Prevention and
Control (IPPC) procedures and urgently zoning and
planning for “cap & trade” principle for emissions.
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) could be applied on Brazil or Minas
Gerais’ level or more differentiated in each of zone (area or municipality) - there
is a "cap", or limit on the total amount of GHGs that can be and it allows they can
sell to or buy from one another as needed.
The effect of EU-ETS: For year the CO2 emissions dropped by
3% to 7.5 tones per capita.

Action-2
Application of SWOT analysis as technique of the strategic
management, but not ordinary and Extended SWOT analysis
for the identification of the influences of every plant.

Action-3
Application of new CCS
(Carbon Capture and Storage – technologies)
For Brazil’s respectively Minas Gerais especially in
the coal energy sector could be listed:
• Pre-combustion technology - IGCC (Integrated
Gasification Combined Cycle)
• Oxyfuel Combustion
• Post-combustion Technology - CFBC (Circulating
Fluidized Bed Combustion)
• End of pipe technology.

Action-4
for operational safety of the
plants and protection of the
employees, public and
environment from the
harmful industrial effects.
Application of ALARA Principle
(As Low As Reasonably
Achievable)

Action-5
To be defined and prosecuted Brazil’s targets,
as model for instance similar of the European
"20-20-20" targets to be met by 2020, namely:
 A reduction GHGs emissions of at least
20% below 1990 levels
 20% of Brazil energy consumption
(outside hydro energy) to come from
other renewable resources
 20% reduction in primary energy use
compared with projected levels, to be achieved
by improving energy efficiency.

Action-6
At last but not least place:
Preparing of proposals and
implementation of joint
projects with European
partners in H2020, programs
of the Brazil government, etc.
For Bulgarian partner you can rely on
the Technical University of Sofia
(Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory)
and/or
IVECOL-CONSULT Ltd.

In conclusion
These actions presented to your attention could be
considered and accepted from authorities, municipalities
and companies in Brazil, in particular in Minas Gerais,
as reasonable recommendations and to be taken relevant
measures and activities for possible input for the
Global
Warming
Mitigation
and achieve of local safe and eco-friendly sustainable development.

< 17-17 >
Thank you
for the attention
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Ivan Ivanov
Head of SE&EL - Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory
Technical University of Sofia, Electrical Power Department
1000 Sofia, 8 “Kl. Ohridski” Blvd., Block 12,
BULGARIA
and
CEO of IVECOL-CONSULT Ltd.
1618 Sofia, P. O. Box 273
Tel. /Fax (+359 2) 488-1069 , 965-2043
E-mails: i.vi@abv.bg and ivec@tu-sofia.bg
?

Mitigação das mudanças climáticas e considerações sobre o setor elétrico - Ivan Ivanov (Universidade Tec. de Sofia)

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