1.
Next Speaker:
Michael
aagaard (dk)
Confirmation Bias
Next Speaker:

2.
Your Brain is Lying to You!
Become a Better Marketer by
Overcoming Confirmation Bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

3.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

4.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

5.
#CH2018

6.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

7.
INFORMATION
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

8.
CONFIRMATION
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

9.
CONFIRMATION bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

10.
Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

11.
Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

12.
Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

13.
What the human being is best at
doing, is interpreting all new
information so that their prior
conclusions remain intact.
- Warren Buffet
“
”
#CH2018

14.
What the human being is best at
doing, is interpreting all new
information so that their prior
conclusions remain intact.
- Warren Buffet
“
”
#CH2018

15.
limits our capacity
for objective analysis
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

16.
Serious threat to any discipline
that seeks to uncover the truth
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

17.
2 Confirmation
Bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

18.
how to overcome
confirmation bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

19.
torturing data
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

20.
If you torture the data long enough,
it will confess to anything.
- Ronald Coase -
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

21.
93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

22.
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

23.
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets
Correlates With
93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

24.
People Who Died By Falling Down the Stairs
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
95%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

25.
Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water.
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
90%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

26.
Per Capita Consumption of Swiss Cheese
Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water
Correlates With
40%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

27.
CORRELATION
DOES NOT EQUAL
CAUSATION
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

28.
Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

29.
Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

30.
Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

31.
Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

32.
Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

33.
Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

34.
Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
Only 2.43% of traffic…
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

35.
Step 1: Read the research.
Step 2: Get new insight.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

36.
THE
CONFIRMATION
BIAS CYCLE
X
X
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

37.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

38.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

39.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

40.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

41.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

42.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

43.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.
1. Read the research.
Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

44.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

45.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

46.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

47.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

48.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

49.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

50.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.
1. Read the research.
Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

51.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

52.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

53.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
https://abtestguide.com/

54.
can you torture
qualitative data?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

55.
wouldn’t you agree that
this is a useful feature?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

56.
can you tell us why
you love our product?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

57.
using
marketer’s logic
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

58.
myside bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

59.
@CONTENTVERVE

60.
@CONTENTVERVE

61.
@CONTENTVERVE

62.
@CONTENTVERVE

63.
@CONTENTVERVE

64.
@CONTENTVERVE

65.
@CONTENTVERVE

66.
@CONTENTVERVE

67.
@CONTENTVERVE

68.
@CONTENTVERVE

69.
@CONTENTVERVE

70.
@CONTENTVERVE

71.
What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy?

72.
What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy?
88% 80%

73.
which university landing page is most credible?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

74.
which university landing page is most credible?
36% 64%
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

75.
I’M RIGHT
&
YOU’RE WRONG
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

76.
I’M SMART
&
YOU’RE STUPID
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

77.
how to overcome
confirmation bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

78.
step 1
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

79.
you could be wrong
accept the fact that
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

80.
The road to wisdom? — Well,
it's plain and simple to express:
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

81.
Err
and err
and err again
but less
and less
and less.
Piet Hein
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

82.
step 2
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

83.
Seek out a
different perspective
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

84.
customer success
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

85.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

86.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

87.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

88.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

89.
nope…
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

90.
will i be billed during the trial?
Can i cancel during my trial?
can i change plans?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

91.
will i be billed during the trial?
Can i cancel during my trial?
can i change plans?
nope! you will only be billed after your 30-day trial if you choose not
to cancel. we’ll send an e-mail reminder near the end of the trial.
certainly! you can cancel at any time, just go to your account
dashboard and click “manage account”.
of course! you can change plans or switch between monthly/annual
billing via your account dashboard.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

92.
#CH2018

93.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

94.
A: Bullets based on marketer’s logic
B: Bullets based on customer insight
11% increase in sign ups
✓ 2 full business cycles
✓ 867 account signups
✓ 95% significance level
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

95.
challenge
your beliefs
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

96.
step 3
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

97.
break
the confirmation
Bias cycle
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

98.
1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

99.
the power of habit - charles duhigg
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

100.
ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

101.
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

102.
CUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

103.
ROUTINE
CUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

104.
ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

105.
ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

106.
ROUTINE
REWARDCUE
Reenforcement
of the habit
The action triggered
by the cue
The trigger that
sets off the habit
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

107.
FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

108.
FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

109.
FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

110.
FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

111.
FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
1
2
3
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

112.
FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
GREEN TEA
the habit loop
1
2
3
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

113.
REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

114.
REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

115.
REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

116.
ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

117.
ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

118.
ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

119.
I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

120.
I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

121.
I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

122.
accept the fact that you could be wrong
er, and er and er again - but less and less and less
seek out a different perspective & challenge your beliefs
break the confirmation bias cycle
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

123.
i suffer from confirmation bias -
no one can convince me otherwise…
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

124.
thank you!!!
Feel free to reach out
aagaardviking@gmail.com
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018