ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's Fan
•Descargar como PPTX, PDF•
2 recomendaciones•890 vistas
This document describes Harman's Fan, a method for developing multiple narrative scenarios about alternative futures. It involves identifying possible future states, organizing them from sooner to later, and connecting sequences of states to create narratives. The document provides examples of Harman's Fan applied to the futures of universities and Hong Kong. It also describes the FutureScapers method for crowdsourcing changes, impacts, and interconnections to generate rich data for developing alternative futures narratives.
Recomendados
Recomendados
Más contenido relacionado
Similar a ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's Fan
Similar a ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's Fan (20)
Más de Wendy Schultz
Más de Wendy Schultz (20)
Último
Último (16)
ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's Fan
- 1. Crowdsourcing Harman’s Fan A distributed, asynchronous method for identifying multiple narrative paths to alternative futures Dr Wendy L Schultz 10 December 2018
- 2. SCENARIO BUILDING Narratives Causal Layered Analysis Scenario Archetypes Organisational Story-telling Axes Deductive Scenarios: Uncertainties as Logics, Change-Theory-Driven Tables Scenario Parameter Matrix FAR Futures Table Morphological Analysis Manoa Scenarios Systems-based Scenarios Harman Fan Connectors
- 5. HARMAN FAN, 1 In An Incomplete Guide to the Future (Norton Publishers, 1979), Willis Harman describes an inventive approach to extrapolating forward into the future: creating a fan of potential mini-scenarios - 'future states of the system' - dispersing out from the current state of play. Multiple narratives can be created by choosing different paths across potential future states as stepping stones into alternative futures.
- 6. HARMAN FAN, 2 THREE STEPS: 1. IDENTIFY 22 different future possible states of the system, expressed as short, vivid titles or headlines (see Wack on simplicity). May be brainstormed in a workshop, or result of expert research. 2. ORGANIZE these future states in a fan model based on assumptions whether any given state may occur sooner or later in the chronology than the others. 3. CONNECT possible sequences through time of different states. The evolution from one state into the next becomes a future scenario; multiple sequences may be specified, creating multiple alternative futures.
- 7. Sooner Later SoonerLater Business Satellite Continuous Education Exchange Bookless Access without exam No University Multi-cultural Experience Degrees Student led Corporate Owned Split Teaching/Research Multi mode No calendar No Bowl All have access Mentor Star Prof Intel Inside Special Interest Group Holodeck Grasshopper other This Harman Fan contains possible future states of universities. They have been organized in chronological order from sooner to later in the evolution process. By clicking on each of the states, a description can be obtained. HARMAN FAN, 3 FUTURES OF THE UNIVERSITY NOW
- 8. HARMAN FAN, 4 Sooner LaterSoonerLater Satellite Bookless All have access No calendar Scenario: The tailor-made on-line university This scenario assumes that we move from our current university towards more distant learning – a ‘satellite university’ that slowly replaces all hardcopy learning. Working with digital media makes it easier to let students study at their own pace, leading to a ‘no-calendar’ university. Since universities will become widely accessible with marginal extra costs and higher marginal outputs per dollar invested, the government will finally provide access to all prospective students with repayable grants, which will be deducted from their income over the professional life of the graduates. NOW
- 9. HARMAN FAN, 5 FUTURES OF HONG KONG NOW 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 99% ARE VEGAN RISING GLOBAL TEMPERATURE LEADS TO LIMIT ON USE OF A/C 100% RECYCLE – NO TRASH WATER RATIONS RISE OF SMALLER VIRTUAL STATES X-VICTORIA HARBOR IS A NARROW CREEK POPULATION HUGE + INCREASING ALL BUILDINGS SELF-SUFFICIENT IN SOLAR POWER 3 OFFICIAL LANGUAGES COMPULSORY ID IMPLANTS ELECTRIC VEHICLES ONLY END OF SAR; OPEN BORDER WITH CHINA INDOOR PARKS PEDESTRIAN-ONLY ZONES CASH-FREE SOCIETY FEMALE- DOMINATED SOCIETY EXPAND LAND – ARTIFICAL ISLANDS NO MORE FREEDOM OF SPEECH FOOD + WATER WARS DIVIDE POPULATION OVER 1 MN RESIDENTS LIVING UNDERGROUND NO ENGLISH STREETNAMES DIGITAL CURFEWS – WALKING & TEXTING IS BANNED
- 10. HARMAN FAN, 6 • Best used after some review of emerging changes • Helps people digest / process the changes they’ve been presented • ‘Mini-scenarios' format challenging in way that spurs creativity • ‘Mini-scenarios' let people express specific impacts on issue • Encourages discussing assumptions and biases • Emphasises alternativity expanding over time and importance of not rejecting the ridiculous too soon • Multiple time horizons accommodate different rates of maturity of key trends and emerging changes • ‘Hopscotch' storyline design choices generate multiple narratives of emergence PLUS scope to design the intervention to prevent the unwanted/dystopian futures
- 11. FUTURESCAPER, 1 Dozens (or thousands) of participants articulate the changes that they think are most important, and their likely causes and effects. CHANGE, IMPACTS – INTERCONNECTIONS
- 12. FUTURESCAPER, 2
- 13. FUTURESCAPER, 3 • Short, fast, accessible ‘plain language’ interface for crowdsourcing change data • Simple questions build futures wheels + interconnections • Common words link to create emergent patterns and narrative cascades
- 14. FUTURESCAPER, 4
- 16. FUTURESCAPER, 6 SSHRC EMERGING GLOBAL CHALLENGES PRIORITISED
- 17. FUTURESCAPER, 7
- 18. FUTURESCAPER, 8
- 19. FUTURESCAPER, 9
- 20. NEXT STEPS • Ability to crowdsource Harman’s Fan serendipitous • Making use of the possibility: • Fastest / cheapest: Crowdsource the impact cascades, let the research team write up variant narratives • Faster / workshop boost: Crowdsource the impact cascades prior to a workshop, let participants explore variant narratives and express them • Fast / design + experiential futures: Crowdsource the impact cascades, design artifacts for each node, let participants create the future by walking into it.
Notas del editor
- .
- Bishop, Hines, Collins – over 23 different scenario or futures image creation methods, with more being invented daily – this presents a rough grouping of methods by their various process design ‘shapes’ – narratives, connectivity-focussed, tabular, and deductive/axes-based. Scenarios are often discussed as instruments for improving strategic perspectives – indeed, that seems to be an overarching focus of ‘scenario planning’ – but they are also excellent vehicles to enhance innovation and product research – as our systems-based scenarios for Pepsico and the Industrial Research Institute demonstrated, and also to enhance other futures and foresight activities – eg, as precursors to visioning, or as exploratory in assessing the relative costs and benefits of impacts of changes identified in horizon scanning.
- The various information sources that we use don't always provide a clear message about where we are and where we are heading. Indeed, it is naïve to think that the truth can reside in a single source of data or a particular model. To an extent, this reflects the usual noise in the various types of information, as well as uncertainty about the strength of different economic relationships. Combining information from a variety of sources, and models, typically results in more robust conclusions than relying exclusively on a single source. For several years we have presented confidence intervals for GDP growth and inflation forecasts in the Statement (Graph 2).[9] These summarise the extent of uncertainty based on previous forecast errors. Since February of last year, we have also published an unemployment rate forecast and confidence intervals around that. In addition to confidence intervals, the forecasting process leads us to think about the risks associated with specific economic developments and to quantify those where possible. Each quarter, we discuss a range of scenarios that explore how the economy might respond under conditions that vary from the central case. For example, what if commodity prices, the exchange rate or overseas economic conditions evolve differently to the paths embedded in our central forecasts? These exercises help us to identify events that could have a meaningful effect on the economy and to which policymakers may need to respond. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/sp-ag-2016-04-06.html
- The discovery of chaotic dynamics implies that deterministic systems may not be predictable in any meaningful sense. The best-known source of unpredictability is sensitivity to initial conditions (popularly known as the butterfly effect), in which small errors or disturbances grow exponentially. However, there are many other sources of uncertainty in nonlinear dynamics. We provide an informal overview of some of these, with an emphasis on the underlying geometry in phase space. The main topics are the butterfly effect, uncertainty in initial conditions in non-chaotic systems, such as coin tossing, heteroclinic connections leading to apparently random switching between states, topological complexity of basin boundaries, bifurcations (popularly known as tipping points) and collisions of chaotic attractors. We briefly discuss possible ways to detect, exploit or mitigate these effects. The paper is intended for non-specialists. Sensitivity to initial conditions generates uncertainty about the trajectory of the system within a known attractor, given a point on that trajectory. A further level of uncertainty arises when there are several attractors. Now a basic question is: for given initial conditions, which attractor does the system converge towards? The associated geometry focuses on basins of attraction. The basin of an attractor is the set of initial conditions in phase space whose trajectories converge to that attractor. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2011.0113
- best used after some inventory / review / sharing / discussion of trends and emerging changes helps people digest / process the various trends / changes they've discussed compressed 'mini-scenarios' format challenging in way that spurs creativity ‘mini-scenarios' let people express specific focussed impacts on discrete components of issue AND encourages discussion about where their individual perspectives come from or what influences them emphasises alternativity expanding over time / widening field of uncertainty - and the importance of not dismissing the ridiculous too soon (female dominated society and food and water wars were laughed at initially, then we talked birth rates, CRISPR, matriarchy in Asian culture, tiger mothers etc. – and got to one potentially influencing the other as a kind of Mad Max Asian diaspora drawing on essentialist feminism and Earth Mother cues) multiple time horizons accommodate different rates of maturity of key trends and emerging changes – this one has been a good example of how hard it is to go out 50 years compared to 20 or 30, so it was critical to look at rate of change globally as well as HK culturally i.e. reflecting on 97 and hundreds of years of colonialism, also cycles of change, ruling empires/dynasties in history etc. once we’d done that it got so much easier to see the possibilities in 50 years, especially for kids just under 5 and yet to be born 'hopscotch' storyline design choices generates multiple narratives of emergence – and adds to creativity plus scope to design the intervention to prevent the unwanted/dystopian futures