Fisheries and aquaculture in the developing world: A research agenda for the next decade
1. Fisheries and aquaculture in
the developing world: a
research agenda for the next
decade.
World Seafood Congress, 2015, Grimsby, UK
Stephen J. Hall
2. Objectives
About WorldFish
About the World’s Fish Food System.
How much fish do we produce today?
How much fish do we expect to produce in future?
How much fish do we need to produce in future?
Implications from a developing country perspective
Three Challenges
A research agenda to meet those challenges
Reflections on the skills we need
4. • Founded in 1975
• 272 Research staff
• 439 Staff globally
• 160 Research projects
• 7 Country offices
• $US 41m income
5. Fish Matter
• 20% of animal protein
intake for 3 billion people.
• An important part of a
healthy diet.
• Nutrients essential to
cognitive and physical
development, especially in
children
The most important of the major categories of animal-source foods.
7. Source: FAO 2014; note: volumes include fish for human consumption as well as fish for other uses such as
fishmeal, etc.
Total
Wild
Catch
94 m T
59%
Total
AQ:
62 m T
41%
World Fish Production
2011
Marine |CAGR: -0.5%
Inland |CAGR: 2.3%
Freshwater |CAGR: 6.6%
Marine |CAGR: 4.3%
Brackish |CAGR: 8.8%
9. The outcome of a conversation with global business leaders, governments,
philanthropic foundations and NGO stakeholders in Bellagio (2013).
Source: Fishing for a Future Bellagio Workshop Synthesis Report www.fishingfuture.org/……
Desirable
‘Eden’
Future
5 global scenarios for future of fish food
system in 2030
10. How much are we likely to produce by 2030?*
75
61
2015
109
61
2030
*Average of FAO and World Bank Projections. Units: Million Metric Tons
CAGR
2.5%
0%
136 170Total
11. How much fish should we produce in 2030?
Demand Need
12. Two Approaches
1. 2030 Projection based on nutritional need
How much fish for an adequate contribution to a
nutritious balanced diet for everyone?
2. 2030 Projection based on trends in
consumption (FAO Method)
How much fish to satisfy the world’s appetite?
Not a substitute for detailed econometric analysis that models the
interactions between supply and demand
Estimating Future Fish Requirements
15. Projecting from consumption trends
Source: FAOStat, World Bank Data
In general, countries with higher per
capita GDP require more fish 1. Estimate relationship
between per capita GDP
and per capita fish
consumption for each
country from historical
data.
2. Project this relationship
forward using estimated
per capita GDP and
population to predict fish
requirement in 2030.
Method 2
16. Estimated Fish Requirements in 2030*
238
228
Demand
Need
2030
232
Requirement
*Estimate of fish for direct human consumption. Units: Million Metric Tons
17. 2030 Requirement versus Expectation
0.00
50.00
100.00
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250.00
World China East3Asia3&3
Pacific3(excl3
China)
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
Latin3America3
&3The3
Caribbean
Middle3East3&3
North3Africa
North
Chart3Title
50
0
100
150
25
250
200
China East3Asia3&3
Pacific
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
LAC MENA North3America South3Asia SubBSaharan3
Africa
Chart3Title
Series1 Series2
3
3
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
Latin3America3
&3The3
Caribbean
Middle3East3&3
North3Africa
North3America South3Asia SubFSaharan3
Africa
Chart3Title
Series1 Series2
0.00
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World China East3Asia3&3
Pacific
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
LAC MENA North3America South3Asia SubBSaharan3
Africa
Chart3Title
Series1 Series2
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
World China East3Asia3&3
Pacific
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
LAC MENA North3America Sou
Series1 Series225
50
25
25
75
FishSupplyRequirementMillionMetricTons)
62.4 7.6
4.9
7.1
7.5
4.9 3.4
14.6
12.5
4.9Business As Usual Eden Requirement Supply – Requirement Gap
• We will be 62
million metric
tons short
unless we do
something
18. Aquaculture Growth is Vital
0
50
100
150
200
250
BAU
2030
Eden
2030
FishSupplyRequirementMillionMetricTons)
170
232
15
8
39
Waste & Loss
Reduction
Improved
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Gap • Aquaculture will need
to produce 39 million
more tons than the 109
currently projected.
• This will require a shift
from an expected 2.5%
CAGR to 4.7%
But we cannot ignore fisheries and we need to reduce
waste and loss!
22. The Distribution Challenge
How do we ensure that the fish is affordable and available for
all and that the economic and nutritional benefits from the
sector are equitably shared?
23. Interlinked Challenges
1
2
3
4
Technologies for sustainable
intensification of aquaculture
Improving aquatic
agricultural livelihoods.
Developing nutrition
sensitive fish value chains
Sustaining fish production
systems
The
Sustainability
Challenge
The
Distribution
Challenge
The
Production
Challenge
1
2
4
3
1
2
3
4
1
2 3
4
24. Technologies for sustainable intensification
of aquaculture
Polyculture with small
indigenous species.
• Finding technology and
financing combinations that
accelerate pro-poor
aquaculture development
• Sustaining rates of genetic
improvement of fish suited
to poor farmers
• Improving the nutritional
value of farmed fish?
• Developing sustainable feed
alternatives
Research Challenges
25. Sustaining fish production systems
Linking ecological and
economic scenario models
• Understanding the social
and ecological implications
for alternative trajectories for
aquaculture growth?
• Identifying how modified
river flows affect inland
fisheries and aquaculture?
• Identifying fisheries
governance approaches that
distribute benefits more
equitably?
Research Challenges
26. Nutrition sensitive value chains
• Shape products and prices
to increase the availability,
affordability and
accessibility
• Reducing losses and
waste and improve food
safety
• Reversing inequities in
household distribution of
fish to benefit children and
pregnant women
Research Challenges Intra-household consumption
27. Enhancing Aquatic Agricultural Systems?
Technology Options
• Identifying technology
combinations work best
• Harnessing the agro-
diversity to provide better
livelihood options people in
AAS
• Finding the best ways to
engage with communities to
achieve development
outcomes?
• Scaling succsesses
Research Challenges
28. The skills we need
The
Sustainability
Challenge
The
Distribution
Challenge
The
Production
Challenge
1
2
4
3
1
2
3
4
1
2 3
4
BiologyEcology
Economics Anthropology
www.cgiar.org CRP Second Call Pre-proposals (FISH http://bit.ly/1MWMjdQ)
29. System Leadership
“We face a host of
systemic challenges
beyond the reach of
existing institutions and
their hierarchical
authority structures.
… At no time in history
have we needed system
leaders more.”
Senge et al, 2014
Asked to present from a developing country perspective
My take on that comes from my work at WorldFish, which I should explain a little about.
Starting point of course is that fish matter – not something I need to convince this audience about.
But what is not so well appreciated in the developed world, is just how critical they are for food security in the developing world.
And we’re all familiar of course with the global production picture with a pretty flat trajectory for wild capture fisheries and a burgeoning aquaculture sector.
In that context its’ worth thinking about the future of the world’s fish food system.
Think about this from a need perspective and especially within the context of women.
Cash crop (carp) is unaffected, and the additional crop of SIS contributes to increased consumption of the small nutrition-rich fish species by members of the household.
Addition of silver carp - total yield increases from approximately 4,025 kg per ha per year to 6,039 kg per ha year (Kadir et al. 2006). Further, it was found that 2,800 ± 800 kg perha per season of SIS fish can be cultured in polyculture systems.,of which 47% is consumed by the farming household (Roos et al. 2007).
In an integrated polyculture-SIS system, the gross income was estimated at US$1,692 per ha, compared to the control treatment (i.e., where no SIS were added), which generated an estimated US$1,384 per ha (Kadir et al. 2006).
This technology is suitable for farmers with small landholdings; the mean farm size of project farmers was 0.8 ± 0.5 ha (Jahan et al. 2008).
Fishmeal use in indonesia by 2020 exceed capture supply.
Linking econometric models of supply and demand with LCA and other assessments.
Andrew Thorne Lyman – recent work in Bangladesh: One third of mothers withheld fish from the diets of young children, while others in the household consumed it.
Gender inequity, time to prepare food for infants, concerns about texture or safety, cultural beliefs. New products, fish chutneys.
AAS are are food production systemsin which the productivity of freshwater or coastal ecosystems contributes significantly to total household nutrition, food security, and income in developing countries (CGIAR 2012).
Based on our calculation approximately 485 million people depend on AAS in the 52 countries included in the analysis. Perhaps more representative of the importance of AAS are the percentages which indicate that 14% (in sub-Sahara Africa) and 19% (in East Asia and the Pacific) of the rural population in these regions depend on AAS. in Sub-Sahara Africa where 57% of the AAS-dependent population (equivalent to 47 million people) is estimated to be poor while in East Asia and the Pacific less than 6% of the AAS population is estimated to be MPI poor (representing 19 million people). In absolute terms, the largest number of poor dependent on AAS (approximately 70 million people) is found in South Asia.
Finally, in the 20 cases reviewed, there was a lack of robust data on changes in productivity, the distribution of benefits among individuals within communities, and environmental outcomes from interventions. To reach goals of reduced poverty and improved livelihoods in aquatic agricultural systems, it is necessary to understand how and in which contexts productivity interventions lead to development outcomes. Therefore, improvements in monitoring and evaluation systems are necessary.