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NORTHFIELD Using a Structural Model for Enterprise Risk April 12th 2011 Presented by Nick Wade Director, Asia Marketing Northfield Information Services Inc. nick@northinfo.com +81(0)3 5403-4655 +61(0)2 9238-4284
Talking Points for Today ,[object Object]
CRO/Board/Trustees/Investment Committee need high-level risk across the firm
Client needs vary - Who is the asset owner?
Returns for illiquid assets e.g. direct property contain “appraisal smoothing” effects and do not reflect underlying risk i.e. it’s not a real price.
Risk Models typically used for fund management are not consistent across asset classes and markets, and usually ignore “difficult” asset classes like property, infrastructure, private equity.
We need to provide an integrated platform that can provide different levels of detail to different audiences, and include the “difficult” asset classes,[object Object]
E.g. what will happen if oil prices go up? Does my portfolio reflect my belief that Toyota will perform twice as well as BHP?
Bad: Typically single-asset class models; delivered in stand-alone softwareEnterprise Risk  ,[object Object]
Good: typically an integrated platform
Bad:one dimensional, return-based; problematic for Illiquid instruments
Solution: Find an integrated Platform that can do bothOffer a customizable reporting tool on top of a set of smart components that can deliver both “VaR” and also multi-factor risk decomposition consistently and comparably across asset classes and markets satisfying both fund management and enterprise risk requirements
Why VaR and return-based models may not be enough ,[object Object],Horizon: that the “enterprise” runs a risk of not surviving past the weekend e.g. 10 day VaR Returns-based: that the “enterprise” only invests in liquidly exchange traded instruments, and that therefore the observed returns tell you all you need to know about risk ,[object Object]
difficult assets can be “proxied” with equity securitiesCredit Ratings, Accounting data are reliable
Why do we have this split? ,[object Object],Risk management is about maintaining solvency in the event the value of the assets declines i.e. Survival Some measures of drawdown risk such as parametric VaR, are just the standard deviation times a scaling factor.   This is what the RiskMetrics system was created for at JP Morgan. ,[object Object],Risk is about how the variability of return from period to period reduces compounding of returns over time.  The geometric mean return of a portfolio is equal to the arithmetic mean of the returns minus one half the variance of the returns Investor wealth depends on the compounding of returns over time, so the variance of the returns (not the standard deviation) is the predominant issue in controlling investor risk.  As such, the most relevant measure of risk to decompose is the variance, not the tracking error or VaR.

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Nick Wade Using A Structural Model For Enterprise Risk, Dst Conference 2011 04 12

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