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Language, Identity, Politics -
the Myth of Two Ukraines
Dr Joanna Fomina
April 2014
Language, Identity, Politics -
the Myth of Two Ukraines
Dr Joanna Fomina
April 2014
4
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
This study is published within a se-
ries of policy briefs on Europe and
its neighbours in the east and
south. In this series we publish pa-
pers commissioned or produced by
the Bertelsmann Stiftung in cooper-
ation with regional partners in the
framework of our work in this field
This policy brief is the product of
the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s cooper-
ation with the Warsaw-based Insti-
tute of Public Affairs (ISP).
The narrative of two Ukraines – the
existence of two separate cultural-
political communities within one
Ukrainian state – has accompanied
the relatively short history of inde-
pendent Ukraine from the very be-
ginning. Articulated by Mykola
Ryabchuk more than twenty years
ago1 and seemingly logical and
reasonable, it has become the fa-
vourite narrative of many Ukrainian
and international commentators
and analysts. One of these
Ukraines is pro-European, shares
liberal democracy values, wants to
join the European Union, “return to
Europe” and, what is very im-
portant, speaks Ukrainian. The
symbolic centre of this Ukraine is
Lviv. The other is nostalgic about
the Soviet Union, has close rela-
tions with contemporary Russia, is
hostile towards the West and does
not share “western” values. The
language of this other Ukraine is
Russian and its “capital” is Do-
netsk. Taking on board this narra-
tive simply means equating one’s
1
M. Ryabczuk, Two Ukraines?, East European
Reporter, vol. 5, no. 4, 1992.
2
M. Ryabczuk, Ukraine: One State, Two Coun-
tries? With Comments, Institute for Human Sci-
region of residence, political views,
and preferred language.
Ryabchuk himself already repudi-
ated this simplistic account some
time ago.2 However, the tale of two
Ukraines is still very popular and of-
ten uncritically reiterated and ex-
ploited in political games. One
could watch its new version after
the eruption of protests against the
suspension of signing of the asso-
ciation agreement with the EU by
former president Yanukovych.
Many commentators presented the
battle for Maidan as a conflict be-
tween the Russian-speaking East
and Ukrainian-speaking West. Cur-
rently, the same narrative is em-
ployed by president Putin, who jus-
tifies his intervention in Ukraine by
the need to protect the “Russian-
speaking” population against the
allegedly nationalistic Ukrainian-
speaking government and its chau-
vinistic supporters.
The tale of two Ukraines equates
language, national identity, region
of residence, and political orienta-
tion of all Ukrainian citizens. The
available empirical data, presented
in the text, demonstrates that there
are indeed some correlations be-
tween the preferred language, re-
gion of residence, and political
views, the perceptions of the neigh-
bouring states as well as prefer-
ences as to the future of their coun-
try. However, the situation is far
from being as unambiguous and
ences, available at: http://www.iwm.at/read-lis-
ten-watch/transit-online/ukraine-one-state-two-
countries/, accessed on March 10, 2014
5
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
unequivocal as the narrative of two
Ukraines would suggest. Although
the political attitudes of the popula-
tions of Lviv and Donetsk differ, it
does not imply that the preferred
language determines ethnic/na-
tional identity or geopolitical
choices. The language situation is
exceptionally complex, and the
boundaries along which the linguis-
tic dividing lines run are very
blurred. What follows, the tale of
two Ukraines, even though catchy
and attractive, does not reflect the
real diversity (linguistic, ethnic, or
political) of Ukrainian society. It
cannot justify the claim for the divi-
sion or even federalisation of the
Ukrainian state. What is more, irre-
spective of the region of residence,
the majority of the population of
Ukraine is sceptical of any divi-
sions, including federalisation, of
their country and believe that
Ukraine is their only home country.
Language preference, region of
residence, and national identity
The claim about two Ukraines can
be easily invalidated by juxtaposing
declarations about national iden-
tity, mother tongue, and the lan-
guage used in everyday situations.
These indicators are very differ-
ently distributed. A considerably
larger percentage of the Ukrainian
population speaks Russian than
claims Russian identity. In other
words, a large share of people who
identify themselves as ethnic
Ukrainians are Russophones.
An analysis of the empirical data,
indeed, illustrates certain tenden-
cies: a larger share of “easterners”
speak Russian, and “westerners” –
Ukrainian. Yet, the linguistic situa-
tion is more complex. Depending
on how the question about the lan-
guage is worded we can even
sometimes get diametrically differ-
ent answers. What is more, the
majority of Ukrainians are at
least passively bilingual – even if
they do not use one of the lan-
guages in everyday situations,
they understand it perfectly well. It
is not infrequent that while having a
conversation, one person speaks
Ukrainian and the other – Russian.
Besides, especially in central
Ukraine, many people speak so-
called “surzhik”, a combination of
Russian and Ukrainian. Yet, when
asked about their reliance on
surzhik, people may deny it and
claim that they actually speak ei-
ther Russian or Ukrainian.
According to census results (2001),
68% claim that their mother tongue
is Ukrainian and 30% – Russian.
There are also considerable re-
gional differences. In Lviv Oblast,
for example, as many as 95% con-
sider Ukrainian as their native lan-
guage, whereas in Donetsk Oblast
the figure is only 24%. Notably,
72% of the residents of the capital
claim that their mother tongue is
Ukrainian and only 25% that it is
Russian.
Yet, when we ask about the lan-
guage that respondents find easier
to speak, the situation is somewhat
6
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
different, and in Kyiv it is diametri-
cally different. When we compare
the census results and opinion
polls, it turns out that a considera-
ble share of Ukrainians consider
Ukrainian their mother tongue, yet
claim it is easier for them to speak
Russian.
Graph 1. Language preferences of
Ukrainians*
*The question was: “What language is it
easier for you to communicate in?”
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 20133
What is more, when respondents
were given more options, the lin-
guistic situation looks even more
complicated. Except for the west of
Ukraine, about 10% of the Ukrain-
ian population admit speaking
surzhik, and about 20% claim that
they speak both Russian and
Ukrainian at home, depending on
the situation. It is also noteworthy
that Russian is usually the pre-
3
The opinion poll was conducted by GfK
through telephone interviews on a sample of
1,000 adult respondents in June 2013. An addi-
tional 300 interviews were conducted in West-
ern Ukraine in order to better analyse the atti-
tudes of the inhabitants of this region. The anal-
ferred language of ethnic minori-
ties. For example, Crimean Tartars
predominantly speak Russian in
everyday situations.
Graph 2. Language used in everyday
conversations at home
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
The research results demonstrate
that the preferred language is not
equivalent to ethnic identity, which
is particularly clear in the case of
the population in the east and south
of Ukraine. The juxtaposition of the
poll results regarding language and
ethnic identity demonstrates that a
considerable share of people who
prefer to use Russian in everyday
life consider themselves Ukrainian.
In the east, 72% claim to be Ukrain-
ian, yet only 6% claim that it is eas-
ier for them to speak Ukrainian.
ysis of the results was published as a report en-
titled “Poland – Ukraine, Poles – Ukrainians. A
Look Across the Border”, Joanna Fomina, Jo-
anna Konieczna-Sałamatin, Jacek Kucharczyk,
Łukasz Wenerski, IPA, Warsaw, 2013, available
at: http://www.isp.org.pl/publikacje,25,638.html
7
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
The situation in the south of the
country looks similar.
Graph 3. Declared nationality – regional
differences
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
Notwithstanding any linguistic, po-
litical, or cultural differences, the
vast majority of Ukrainians con-
sider Ukraine their motherland.
Even in the south of the country,
88% believe that Ukraine is their
home country. This conviction is
even more popular among resi-
dents of the allegedly pro-Russian
east – 93% share this belief, in
comparison to the traditionally pat-
riotic west and centre (99%).
Graph 4. Do you consider Ukraine your
motherland?
Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re-
sults, 2013
What is more, a dominating major-
ity of Ukrainians demonstrate patri-
otic feelings for Ukraine. Only 18%
in the south and 15% in the east do
not consider themselves patriots of
Ukraine.
Graph 5. Do you consider yourself a
patriot of Ukraine?
Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re-
sults, 2013
In other words, even people who
prefer speaking Russian and/or live
in the east or south of the country
still predominantly consider
Ukraine their motherland and have
patriotic feelings for their country.
8
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
There are some correlations be-
tween language preferences and
region of residence on the one
hand, and national identity and pat-
riotism on the other, yet the results
by no means justify the “two
Ukraines” theory .
Language and values and atti-
tudes towards democracy
According to the two Ukraines nar-
rative, the Ukrainian-speaking pop-
ulation of Ukraine shares demo-
cratic values, and supports reforms
strengthening civic freedoms and
political rights, whereas the Rus-
sian-speakers are nostalgic about
the Soviet Union and do not mind
strong and centralised (authoritar-
ian) rule. Does such a division exist
in real life? We can check this on
the basis of the results of the sixth
edition of the World Value Survey –
an opinion poll conducted in
Ukraine in 2011 and 2012, i.e. dur-
ing the presidency of Viktor Yanu-
kovych.
The respondents were asked to as-
sess on the scale of 0 to 10 the im-
portance of living in a democratic
state. They were also asked about
the level of satisfaction about the
performance of democracy in their
own country. The results demon-
strate that there are no significant
differences between Russian- and
Ukrainian-speakers regarding de-
mocracy. The majority of Ukraini-
ans attached considerable im-
portance to living in a democrati-
cally governed state and were very
critical of the situation regarding
democracy in their own country, ir-
respective of whether they were
Russophones or Ukrophones.
Graph 6. Opinions on democracy as a
principle and as practice*
*The respondents were asked to assess
the importance of living in a democratic
state as well as satisfaction with the per-
formance of democracy in their own state
on a scale of 0 to 10.
Source: World Values Survey:
http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/
The respondents were also asked
about their support for democratic
and authoritarian forms of govern-
ment. The juxtaposition of the re-
sults demonstrates the internal di-
lemma of Ukrainians who on one
hand want to live in a democrati-
cally governed state, yet on the
other – long for a single strong
leader who will put their country in
order. Yet, the difficulty in choosing
either a democratic or an authori-
tarian form of governance was
faced by both Russian and Ukrain-
ian speakers alike. Needless to
say, it results from dissatisfaction
with the successive government
9
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
brought to power as a result of
(more or less) free elections.
Graph 7. Support for democratic and
authoritarian forms of governance
Source: World Values Survey:
http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/
The views of the Russian- and
Ukrainian-speaking population of
Ukraine do not differ considerably
regarding their trust towards the
authorities. People who prefer to
speak Russian in everyday life only
trusted the government under for-
mer president Yanukovych slightly
more often – the difference with
their Ukrainian-speaking fellow citi-
zens was just eight percentage
points. Slightly fewer people ex-
pressed trust in the parliament, with
the difference between the two
groups being just three percentage
points.
Graph 8. Confidence in parliament and
government
Source: World Values Survey:
http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/
The claim that Viktor Yanukovych
and the Party of Regions, although
disliked by the Ukrainian-speaking
population, enjoyed widespread
support and trust from Russian-
speakers is easily refuted on the
basis of these results. These re-
sults also demonstrate that we
should not jump to conclusions that
there are considerable differences
in political attitudes between peo-
ple according to linguistic dividing
lines.
Language and region of resi-
dence and geopolitical choices
of Ukrainians
So-called “multi-vector” orientation
in terms of geopolitics – assigning
relatively the same significance to
relations with the EU and Russia –
has been characteristic for both
Ukrainian politics and the attitudes
of Ukrainian society for the whole
period of independence. It has al-
ways been difficult for Ukrainians to
make a decided choice between
the west and the east. The reasons
for this state of affairs include the
geographical position, history, as-
sessments of (unfinished) systemic
10
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
transformation after regaining inde-
pendence, and the impact of the
mass media.
The already cited IPA opinion poll
(2013) demonstrates that the ma-
jority of Ukrainians would like to
see their country intensively coop-
erating with both the EU and Rus-
sia. The dominant group, 42% of
respondents, believed that intensi-
fication of relations both with the
EU and Russia was in the interest
of their state. However, among
those who were able to make an
unequivocal choice between the
two geopolitical options, the sup-
porters of the EU prevailed.
Twenty-seven per cent believed
that closer relations with the EU
were in the interest of Ukraine,
whereas the unequivocally Rus-
sian option was chosen by only
17%.
Graph 9. Opinions on closer
cooperation with European Union
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
Graph 10. Opinions on closer
cooperation with Russia
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
The majority of Ukrainians, irre-
spective of the language they
speak, believed that closer ties with
both the EU and Russia were im-
portant for the economic develop-
ment of Ukraine. The majority of
Russian-speakers and Ukrainian-
speakers also believed that inte-
gration with the EU is in the interest
of Ukraine. What is significant,
however, is that not only did the
majority of Russian-speakers be-
lieve that also closer ties with Rus-
sia were in the interest of Ukraine,
but also almost half of the Ukrain-
ian-speakers.
Thus, the “multi-vector” option was
the most popular choice among the
majority of Ukrainians, irrespective
of the language they speak. Yet,
when people were asked to make a
choice between integration with
Russia and integration with the EU,
regional differences emerged. Pre-
dictably the west and the centre
tended to choose the European
vector of integration, and the east –
the Russian one. What is signifi-
cant, however, is that the residents
of the south were divided in their
opinions regarding geopolitical
choices of their country – 45%
11
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
wanted their country to join the EU,
and 41% – to join the Customs Un-
ion of Russia, Kazakhstan, and
Belarus.
Graph 11. Supporters of the Eastern
and Western vectors of Ukraine's
integration – according to the two
Ukraines claim
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
Graph 12. Supporters of the Eastern
and Western vectors of Ukraine's
integration – according to linguistic
differences
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
Map 1. Supporters of the Western and Eastern direction of integration – regional
differences
73% supporters of the accession of Ukraine to the European Union
41% supporters of the accession of Ukraine to the customs union with Russia, Belarus
and Kazakhstan
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
supporters of the ac-
cession of Ukraine to
the European Union
rs of the accession of
Ukraine
supporters of the
accession of
Ukraine to the cus-
toms union with
Russia, Belarus
and Kazakhstan
12
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
An interesting tendency can be ob-
served regarding the differences
between the south-east and the
centre-west. The latter is much
more supportive of integration with
the EU (66%) than the south-east
is of integration with Russia (49%),
whereas, irrespective of the pre-
ferred language, a larger share of
Ukrainians preferred integration
with the EU – 45% among Russo-
phones and 62% among Ukro-
phones – than with Russia (40%
and 16%, respectively).
Language and the perception of
Poland
Poland is often perceived by both
other EU member-states and its
eastern neighbours as a country
that strongly supports the pro-west-
ern and pro-European orientation
of Ukraine. At the same time, in
Russian propaganda, Poland is of-
ten presented as a country that is
trying to forcefully make Ukraine
join the EU. According to the two
Ukraines claim, thus, we could ex-
pect that the perception of Poland
would be different depending on
the language preferred and the re-
gion of residence of the respond-
ents.
IPA research results demonstrate
that Poland enjoys a very positive
perception across Ukrainian soci-
ety. Neither preferred language nor
region of residence were of signifi-
cance regarding the perception of
how the Polish state functions.
Both the population in the east and
the west believed that the Polish
government takes good care of its
citizens and that Poles can fully en-
joy their rights and civil liberties.
Taking into account that Poland is
an EU member state most fre-
quently visited by Ukrainians, to a
certain extent these results can be
extrapolated to the whole of the
EU.
Graph 13. Opinions on the situation in
Poland – regional differences
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
Graph 14. Opinions on the situation in
Poland – differences according to
language preference
Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
13
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
Region of residence and views
on federalisation and separa-
tism
The narrative about two Ukraines is
often employed to justify the pro-
posals for the political division of
Ukraine, either federalisation or a
split into two separate political enti-
ties, or uniting parts of Ukraine with
another state (Russia). However,
public opinion is predominantly
hostile to any such changes, both
in the west and in the east. More
than half of the population in all the
regions – with 53% in the east be-
ing the lowest score – are critical of
the idea of the federalisation of
Ukraine. This goes against the
grain of popular perceptions about
the widespread desire of eastern
Ukrainians to see their region as
part of a federation rather than the
unitary state of Ukraine. What is in-
teresting, about 20% (with some re-
gional differences) find it hard to
answer a question on the federali-
sation of Ukraine. These citizens
are easy to persuade either one
way or the other. In addition, many
may simply want greater decentral-
isation of the state, and not federal-
isation.
Graph 15. Support for the idea of
Ukraine as a federal state
Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re-
sults, 2013
The idea of splitting Ukraine into
two states enjoys even less sup-
port. More than 70% of Ukrainians
in all regions do not support sepa-
rating parts of Ukraine by creating
a state covering the south-east re-
gions. The greatest difference is
between the east and the west,
which is only nine percentage
points.
Graph 16. Support for the idea of
creating two independent states (the
south-eastern oblasts vs. the western
and central oblasts)
14
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re-
sults, 2013
Separatist tendencies are not pop-
ular in Ukraine, irrespective of the
region of residence. Only 5% in the
east and 13% in the south would
like their oblast to create an inde-
pendent state, separate from
Ukraine.
Graph 17. Support for separating one’s
native oblast and creating an
independent state
Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re-
sults, 2013
Joining Russia is almost equally
unpopular. The vast majority of
Ukrainians, irrespective of how
close to Russia they live, does not
want their oblast to join Russia –
more than 70% in all regions. For-
saking Ukraine for the sake of Rus-
sia is popular among not more than
14% of the residents of the south-
east. These results are especially
significant in the face of the
pseudo-referendum, engineered
by the Russian authorities in Cri-
mea.
Graph 18. Support for the idea of
separating the south-eastern regions of
Ukraine and forcing them to unite with
Russia?
Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re-
sults, 2013
Finally, despite the fact that the re-
search shows that regional differ-
ences between the east and the
west are not that significant and do
not justify the claim about two
Ukraines, this narrative has be-
come relatively popular also within
Ukrainian society itself, especially
in the east and south. One third of
Ukrainians living in the east and
south believe that the differences
between the two parts of Ukraine
are so significant that they may re-
sult in the division of Ukraine in the
15
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
future. This conviction is consider-
ably less popular in the centre and
especially in the west – this opinion
is shared by 16% and 10%, respec-
tively. It appears that the impact of
the Russian media is key here to
understanding these regional dif-
ferences. The Russian media have
been promoting the idea of the “na-
tionalistic” west that is so different
from the east of Ukraine. As a re-
sult, the belief in some insurmount-
able differences between the east-
erners and westerners is twice as
popular in the east as it is in the
west of Ukraine. Yet, it is significant
that despite such propaganda, the
majority of Ukrainians, including
the east and south, deny that a two-
state solution is possible.
Graph 19. Belief that the split of
Ukraine is possible due to
irreconcilable differences between
regions*
* The question was: “Do you believe in the
existence of deep political contradictions,
language and cultural barriers, and eco-
nomic disparity between the citizens of the
western and eastern regions of Ukraine
that in future may result in the separation
of these regions and/or the creation of
separate independent states on Ukraine’s
territory, or make those regions unite with
other states?”
Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re-
sults, 2013
Crimea – poles apart?
Once we have seen that the differ-
ences between the populations of
the east and the west of Ukraine
are not that considerable, the ques-
tion arises whether Crimea is poles
apart from the rest of Ukraine. It is
often emphasised that Crimea only
joined Ukraine in the 1950s and
has never become really Ukrainian
in spirit. Crimea is also the native
land of the Crimean Tartars, who
make up 16% of the peninsula’s
population, according to the 2001
census.
The Crimean population, compris-
ing a considerable group of ethnic
Russians who settled there during
the communist times as well as
families of the Black Sea Fleet
members, is indeed much more fa-
vourably oriented towards Russia
than towards the EU. According to
the results of an opinion poll, con-
ducted in Crimea in May 2013, sim-
ilarly to the east of the country, 53%
of the Crimean population would
rather see Ukraine join the union
with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Bel-
arus than the EU (supported by
17%), if they had to make a single
choice. It is also noteworthy that
one third of the population did not
support any of the two options.
16
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
Graph 20. Support for joining the
European Union and the Customs
Union with Russia*
* The questions was: “If Ukraine was able
to enter only one international economic
union, which entity should it be?”
Source: International Republican Institute,
2013
Yet, as the results of the poll
demonstrate, the population of Cri-
mea neither felt that Russian
speakers were in a disadvantaged
situation, nor the majority wanted
Crimea to change its country alle-
giance. The official motivation be-
hind Russia’s military intervention
and the following annexation of Cri-
mea was the protection of its Rus-
sian-speaking population, allegedly
suffering discrimination under
Ukrainian rule. However, an opin-
ion poll, conducted in Crimea in
May 2013, demonstrates that only
six per cent of the population
claims that the status of the Rus-
sian language was one of the three
issues most important to them per-
sonally.
What is more, the majority of the
Crimean population supported the
status quo – autonomy within
Ukraine. Twelve per cent wanted to
have Crimean Tatar autonomy –
the percentage is close to the share
of Crimean Tatars in the population
of the peninsula, whereas annexa-
tion by Russia was supported by
less than one-fourth of the popula-
tion.
Graph 21. Opinions on the status of
Crimea (in %)
Source: International Republican Institute,
2013
An even more recent opinion poll
shows that although a rather con-
siderable share of the Crimean
population would like to see
Ukraine and Russia join into one
state, it is not the majority of the
population. According to the results
of the poll conducted in February
2014, several weeks before the ref-
erendum, only 41% believed that
Russia and Ukraine should unite
into one state.
17
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
It is likely that Russian media prop-
aganda has convinced more peo-
ple of the threats following the
change of central government in
Ukraine, and thus the support for
separating Crimea from Ukraine
and joining Russia has increased.
Yet, it is hard to believe that Crime-
ans have changed their minds en
masse within such a short period of
time – according to the results of
the Crimean referendum presented
by the Russian side, more than
90% voted for joining Russia.
The analysis of the turnout dynam-
ics during the referendum, the re-
sults of earlier opinion polls, the
fact that Russian citizens were al-
lowed to take part in the referen-
dum, the boycott of the referendum
by Crimean Tartars (12-16% of the
population) and the turnout in some
places exceeded 100%, all point to
the fact that the results of the refer-
endum have been considerably
manipulated. What is more, there
was no space for balanced infor-
mation campaign showing pros and
cons of joining Russia. The referen-
dum was prepared within three
weeks during a considerable politi-
cal crisis in the country with the
presence of Russian troops in the
peninsula. A referendum under the
barrel of a Kalashnikov can hardly
be called free and fair.
All in all, the public opinion poll re-
sults show that Crimea is not signif-
icantly different from the rest of
Ukraine and even the territorially
modified version of the two
Ukraines’ claim is not justified.
What is more, support for economic
integration with the Russian-led
customs union is not tantamount to
separatist tendencies and the de-
sire to become part of Russia.
Conclusions
It goes without saying that Ukrain-
ian society is diverse in terms of
language and culture as well as at-
titudes and opinions regarding the
future of their state. However, all
explanations based on the divi-
sions according to language prefer-
ences are considerable simplifica-
tions and do not reflect the real sit-
uation, but rather impose precon-
ceived notions, which are largely
unfair to Ukrainians and dangerous
in terms of the future of the Ukrain-
ian state. Ukrainians may not agree
on many issues, yet, Ukrainian so-
ciety does not consist of two mono-
liths or two internally coherent cul-
tural-political communities. There-
fore, the widely-used category of
“Russian speakers” is largely irrel-
evant as an explanation of socio-
political divisions within Ukrainian
society.
To sum up:
 Both ethnic Russians and
Ukrainians often choose to
speak Russian. Many Ukrain-
ian patriots with strongly pro-
western views may speak Rus-
sian at home and in everyday
situations.
 Both Russian- and Ukrainian-
speakers were strongly critical
of the former president Viktor
18
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
Yanukovych and the govern-
ment of the Party of Regions.
 The majority of Ukrainians be-
lieve that close cooperation
with both the European Union
and Russia is in the interest of
their state. Yet, when they
need to make a single geopo-
litical choice, the majority pre-
fer the European vector of inte-
gration, irrespective of the lan-
guage they speak.
 Whereas, when people are
forced to make a single choice
between European integration
and the Russia-led customs
union, regional differences re-
surface. The population in the
west and centre prefer the EU
and the east prefers the Rus-
sian model of integration. Pub-
lic opinion in the south is di-
vided.
 Irrespective of the region of
residence or the preferred lan-
guage, the majority of Ukraini-
ans would like to live in a dem-
ocratic state.
 After several of years of Viktor
Yanukovych’s rule, the major-
ity of Ukrainians, irrespective
of their preferred language,
were critical of his presidency
and the government of the
Party of Regions.
 A decisive majority of Ukraini-
ans also have a very positive
perception of the situation in
Poland. Irrespective of the pre-
ferred language or region of
residence, Ukrainians believe
that the Polish state takes
good care of its citizens and
Poles enjoy their rights and
civil liberties.
 The majority of Ukrainians, ir-
respective of the language
they speak or the region they
live in, do not share separatist
sentiments. They do not sup-
port either the idea of creating
two states or separating their
region or oblast from Ukraine
and making it independent or
joining Russia.
 Support for close economic co-
operation with Russia is not
tantamount to the desire to join
the Russian state in any region
of Ukraine.
 Even in Crimea, less than one
quarter of the whole population
would like to see their region
join Russia. The majority sup-
ported the status quo – Crimea
being part of Ukraine and hav-
ing an autonomous status.
 The overwhelming majority of
Ukrainians, irrespective of lan-
guage or region of residence,
consider themselves patriots of
Ukraine and see Ukraine as
their motherland.
Dr. Joanna Fomina is a sociologist
in the European Studies Unit of
the Polish Academy of Sciences
and IPA associate expert.
19
Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Address | Contact
Bertelsmann Stiftung
Carl-Bertelsmann-Straße 256
33311 Gütersloh
Phone +49 5241 81-0
Fax +49 5241 81-81999
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Gabriele Schöler
Senior Project Manager
Program The Future of Europe
gabriele.schoeler@bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Phone +49 (0)5241 81 81 205
Instytut Spraw Publicznych (ISP)
ul. Szpitalna 5 / 22
PL - 00-031 Warszawa
Phone (+48 22) 5564260
Fax (+48 22) 5564262
www.isp.org.pl
Dr Agnieszka Łada
Head of the European Programme
Senior Analyst
Agnieska.lada@isp.org.pl
Phone (+48 22) 5564288

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The myth of two Ukraines

  • 1. Language, Identity, Politics - the Myth of Two Ukraines Dr Joanna Fomina April 2014
  • 2.
  • 3. Language, Identity, Politics - the Myth of Two Ukraines Dr Joanna Fomina April 2014
  • 4. 4 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief This study is published within a se- ries of policy briefs on Europe and its neighbours in the east and south. In this series we publish pa- pers commissioned or produced by the Bertelsmann Stiftung in cooper- ation with regional partners in the framework of our work in this field This policy brief is the product of the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s cooper- ation with the Warsaw-based Insti- tute of Public Affairs (ISP). The narrative of two Ukraines – the existence of two separate cultural- political communities within one Ukrainian state – has accompanied the relatively short history of inde- pendent Ukraine from the very be- ginning. Articulated by Mykola Ryabchuk more than twenty years ago1 and seemingly logical and reasonable, it has become the fa- vourite narrative of many Ukrainian and international commentators and analysts. One of these Ukraines is pro-European, shares liberal democracy values, wants to join the European Union, “return to Europe” and, what is very im- portant, speaks Ukrainian. The symbolic centre of this Ukraine is Lviv. The other is nostalgic about the Soviet Union, has close rela- tions with contemporary Russia, is hostile towards the West and does not share “western” values. The language of this other Ukraine is Russian and its “capital” is Do- netsk. Taking on board this narra- tive simply means equating one’s 1 M. Ryabczuk, Two Ukraines?, East European Reporter, vol. 5, no. 4, 1992. 2 M. Ryabczuk, Ukraine: One State, Two Coun- tries? With Comments, Institute for Human Sci- region of residence, political views, and preferred language. Ryabchuk himself already repudi- ated this simplistic account some time ago.2 However, the tale of two Ukraines is still very popular and of- ten uncritically reiterated and ex- ploited in political games. One could watch its new version after the eruption of protests against the suspension of signing of the asso- ciation agreement with the EU by former president Yanukovych. Many commentators presented the battle for Maidan as a conflict be- tween the Russian-speaking East and Ukrainian-speaking West. Cur- rently, the same narrative is em- ployed by president Putin, who jus- tifies his intervention in Ukraine by the need to protect the “Russian- speaking” population against the allegedly nationalistic Ukrainian- speaking government and its chau- vinistic supporters. The tale of two Ukraines equates language, national identity, region of residence, and political orienta- tion of all Ukrainian citizens. The available empirical data, presented in the text, demonstrates that there are indeed some correlations be- tween the preferred language, re- gion of residence, and political views, the perceptions of the neigh- bouring states as well as prefer- ences as to the future of their coun- try. However, the situation is far from being as unambiguous and ences, available at: http://www.iwm.at/read-lis- ten-watch/transit-online/ukraine-one-state-two- countries/, accessed on March 10, 2014
  • 5. 5 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief unequivocal as the narrative of two Ukraines would suggest. Although the political attitudes of the popula- tions of Lviv and Donetsk differ, it does not imply that the preferred language determines ethnic/na- tional identity or geopolitical choices. The language situation is exceptionally complex, and the boundaries along which the linguis- tic dividing lines run are very blurred. What follows, the tale of two Ukraines, even though catchy and attractive, does not reflect the real diversity (linguistic, ethnic, or political) of Ukrainian society. It cannot justify the claim for the divi- sion or even federalisation of the Ukrainian state. What is more, irre- spective of the region of residence, the majority of the population of Ukraine is sceptical of any divi- sions, including federalisation, of their country and believe that Ukraine is their only home country. Language preference, region of residence, and national identity The claim about two Ukraines can be easily invalidated by juxtaposing declarations about national iden- tity, mother tongue, and the lan- guage used in everyday situations. These indicators are very differ- ently distributed. A considerably larger percentage of the Ukrainian population speaks Russian than claims Russian identity. In other words, a large share of people who identify themselves as ethnic Ukrainians are Russophones. An analysis of the empirical data, indeed, illustrates certain tenden- cies: a larger share of “easterners” speak Russian, and “westerners” – Ukrainian. Yet, the linguistic situa- tion is more complex. Depending on how the question about the lan- guage is worded we can even sometimes get diametrically differ- ent answers. What is more, the majority of Ukrainians are at least passively bilingual – even if they do not use one of the lan- guages in everyday situations, they understand it perfectly well. It is not infrequent that while having a conversation, one person speaks Ukrainian and the other – Russian. Besides, especially in central Ukraine, many people speak so- called “surzhik”, a combination of Russian and Ukrainian. Yet, when asked about their reliance on surzhik, people may deny it and claim that they actually speak ei- ther Russian or Ukrainian. According to census results (2001), 68% claim that their mother tongue is Ukrainian and 30% – Russian. There are also considerable re- gional differences. In Lviv Oblast, for example, as many as 95% con- sider Ukrainian as their native lan- guage, whereas in Donetsk Oblast the figure is only 24%. Notably, 72% of the residents of the capital claim that their mother tongue is Ukrainian and only 25% that it is Russian. Yet, when we ask about the lan- guage that respondents find easier to speak, the situation is somewhat
  • 6. 6 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief different, and in Kyiv it is diametri- cally different. When we compare the census results and opinion polls, it turns out that a considera- ble share of Ukrainians consider Ukrainian their mother tongue, yet claim it is easier for them to speak Russian. Graph 1. Language preferences of Ukrainians* *The question was: “What language is it easier for you to communicate in?” Source: IPA opinion poll results, 20133 What is more, when respondents were given more options, the lin- guistic situation looks even more complicated. Except for the west of Ukraine, about 10% of the Ukrain- ian population admit speaking surzhik, and about 20% claim that they speak both Russian and Ukrainian at home, depending on the situation. It is also noteworthy that Russian is usually the pre- 3 The opinion poll was conducted by GfK through telephone interviews on a sample of 1,000 adult respondents in June 2013. An addi- tional 300 interviews were conducted in West- ern Ukraine in order to better analyse the atti- tudes of the inhabitants of this region. The anal- ferred language of ethnic minori- ties. For example, Crimean Tartars predominantly speak Russian in everyday situations. Graph 2. Language used in everyday conversations at home Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 The research results demonstrate that the preferred language is not equivalent to ethnic identity, which is particularly clear in the case of the population in the east and south of Ukraine. The juxtaposition of the poll results regarding language and ethnic identity demonstrates that a considerable share of people who prefer to use Russian in everyday life consider themselves Ukrainian. In the east, 72% claim to be Ukrain- ian, yet only 6% claim that it is eas- ier for them to speak Ukrainian. ysis of the results was published as a report en- titled “Poland – Ukraine, Poles – Ukrainians. A Look Across the Border”, Joanna Fomina, Jo- anna Konieczna-Sałamatin, Jacek Kucharczyk, Łukasz Wenerski, IPA, Warsaw, 2013, available at: http://www.isp.org.pl/publikacje,25,638.html
  • 7. 7 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief The situation in the south of the country looks similar. Graph 3. Declared nationality – regional differences Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 Notwithstanding any linguistic, po- litical, or cultural differences, the vast majority of Ukrainians con- sider Ukraine their motherland. Even in the south of the country, 88% believe that Ukraine is their home country. This conviction is even more popular among resi- dents of the allegedly pro-Russian east – 93% share this belief, in comparison to the traditionally pat- riotic west and centre (99%). Graph 4. Do you consider Ukraine your motherland? Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re- sults, 2013 What is more, a dominating major- ity of Ukrainians demonstrate patri- otic feelings for Ukraine. Only 18% in the south and 15% in the east do not consider themselves patriots of Ukraine. Graph 5. Do you consider yourself a patriot of Ukraine? Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re- sults, 2013 In other words, even people who prefer speaking Russian and/or live in the east or south of the country still predominantly consider Ukraine their motherland and have patriotic feelings for their country.
  • 8. 8 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief There are some correlations be- tween language preferences and region of residence on the one hand, and national identity and pat- riotism on the other, yet the results by no means justify the “two Ukraines” theory . Language and values and atti- tudes towards democracy According to the two Ukraines nar- rative, the Ukrainian-speaking pop- ulation of Ukraine shares demo- cratic values, and supports reforms strengthening civic freedoms and political rights, whereas the Rus- sian-speakers are nostalgic about the Soviet Union and do not mind strong and centralised (authoritar- ian) rule. Does such a division exist in real life? We can check this on the basis of the results of the sixth edition of the World Value Survey – an opinion poll conducted in Ukraine in 2011 and 2012, i.e. dur- ing the presidency of Viktor Yanu- kovych. The respondents were asked to as- sess on the scale of 0 to 10 the im- portance of living in a democratic state. They were also asked about the level of satisfaction about the performance of democracy in their own country. The results demon- strate that there are no significant differences between Russian- and Ukrainian-speakers regarding de- mocracy. The majority of Ukraini- ans attached considerable im- portance to living in a democrati- cally governed state and were very critical of the situation regarding democracy in their own country, ir- respective of whether they were Russophones or Ukrophones. Graph 6. Opinions on democracy as a principle and as practice* *The respondents were asked to assess the importance of living in a democratic state as well as satisfaction with the per- formance of democracy in their own state on a scale of 0 to 10. Source: World Values Survey: http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/ The respondents were also asked about their support for democratic and authoritarian forms of govern- ment. The juxtaposition of the re- sults demonstrates the internal di- lemma of Ukrainians who on one hand want to live in a democrati- cally governed state, yet on the other – long for a single strong leader who will put their country in order. Yet, the difficulty in choosing either a democratic or an authori- tarian form of governance was faced by both Russian and Ukrain- ian speakers alike. Needless to say, it results from dissatisfaction with the successive government
  • 9. 9 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief brought to power as a result of (more or less) free elections. Graph 7. Support for democratic and authoritarian forms of governance Source: World Values Survey: http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/ The views of the Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking population of Ukraine do not differ considerably regarding their trust towards the authorities. People who prefer to speak Russian in everyday life only trusted the government under for- mer president Yanukovych slightly more often – the difference with their Ukrainian-speaking fellow citi- zens was just eight percentage points. Slightly fewer people ex- pressed trust in the parliament, with the difference between the two groups being just three percentage points. Graph 8. Confidence in parliament and government Source: World Values Survey: http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/ The claim that Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, although disliked by the Ukrainian-speaking population, enjoyed widespread support and trust from Russian- speakers is easily refuted on the basis of these results. These re- sults also demonstrate that we should not jump to conclusions that there are considerable differences in political attitudes between peo- ple according to linguistic dividing lines. Language and region of resi- dence and geopolitical choices of Ukrainians So-called “multi-vector” orientation in terms of geopolitics – assigning relatively the same significance to relations with the EU and Russia – has been characteristic for both Ukrainian politics and the attitudes of Ukrainian society for the whole period of independence. It has al- ways been difficult for Ukrainians to make a decided choice between the west and the east. The reasons for this state of affairs include the geographical position, history, as- sessments of (unfinished) systemic
  • 10. 10 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief transformation after regaining inde- pendence, and the impact of the mass media. The already cited IPA opinion poll (2013) demonstrates that the ma- jority of Ukrainians would like to see their country intensively coop- erating with both the EU and Rus- sia. The dominant group, 42% of respondents, believed that intensi- fication of relations both with the EU and Russia was in the interest of their state. However, among those who were able to make an unequivocal choice between the two geopolitical options, the sup- porters of the EU prevailed. Twenty-seven per cent believed that closer relations with the EU were in the interest of Ukraine, whereas the unequivocally Rus- sian option was chosen by only 17%. Graph 9. Opinions on closer cooperation with European Union Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 Graph 10. Opinions on closer cooperation with Russia Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 The majority of Ukrainians, irre- spective of the language they speak, believed that closer ties with both the EU and Russia were im- portant for the economic develop- ment of Ukraine. The majority of Russian-speakers and Ukrainian- speakers also believed that inte- gration with the EU is in the interest of Ukraine. What is significant, however, is that not only did the majority of Russian-speakers be- lieve that also closer ties with Rus- sia were in the interest of Ukraine, but also almost half of the Ukrain- ian-speakers. Thus, the “multi-vector” option was the most popular choice among the majority of Ukrainians, irrespective of the language they speak. Yet, when people were asked to make a choice between integration with Russia and integration with the EU, regional differences emerged. Pre- dictably the west and the centre tended to choose the European vector of integration, and the east – the Russian one. What is signifi- cant, however, is that the residents of the south were divided in their opinions regarding geopolitical choices of their country – 45%
  • 11. 11 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief wanted their country to join the EU, and 41% – to join the Customs Un- ion of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. Graph 11. Supporters of the Eastern and Western vectors of Ukraine's integration – according to the two Ukraines claim Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 Graph 12. Supporters of the Eastern and Western vectors of Ukraine's integration – according to linguistic differences Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 Map 1. Supporters of the Western and Eastern direction of integration – regional differences 73% supporters of the accession of Ukraine to the European Union 41% supporters of the accession of Ukraine to the customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 supporters of the ac- cession of Ukraine to the European Union rs of the accession of Ukraine supporters of the accession of Ukraine to the cus- toms union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan
  • 12. 12 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief An interesting tendency can be ob- served regarding the differences between the south-east and the centre-west. The latter is much more supportive of integration with the EU (66%) than the south-east is of integration with Russia (49%), whereas, irrespective of the pre- ferred language, a larger share of Ukrainians preferred integration with the EU – 45% among Russo- phones and 62% among Ukro- phones – than with Russia (40% and 16%, respectively). Language and the perception of Poland Poland is often perceived by both other EU member-states and its eastern neighbours as a country that strongly supports the pro-west- ern and pro-European orientation of Ukraine. At the same time, in Russian propaganda, Poland is of- ten presented as a country that is trying to forcefully make Ukraine join the EU. According to the two Ukraines claim, thus, we could ex- pect that the perception of Poland would be different depending on the language preferred and the re- gion of residence of the respond- ents. IPA research results demonstrate that Poland enjoys a very positive perception across Ukrainian soci- ety. Neither preferred language nor region of residence were of signifi- cance regarding the perception of how the Polish state functions. Both the population in the east and the west believed that the Polish government takes good care of its citizens and that Poles can fully en- joy their rights and civil liberties. Taking into account that Poland is an EU member state most fre- quently visited by Ukrainians, to a certain extent these results can be extrapolated to the whole of the EU. Graph 13. Opinions on the situation in Poland – regional differences Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013 Graph 14. Opinions on the situation in Poland – differences according to language preference Source: IPA opinion poll results, 2013
  • 13. 13 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief Region of residence and views on federalisation and separa- tism The narrative about two Ukraines is often employed to justify the pro- posals for the political division of Ukraine, either federalisation or a split into two separate political enti- ties, or uniting parts of Ukraine with another state (Russia). However, public opinion is predominantly hostile to any such changes, both in the west and in the east. More than half of the population in all the regions – with 53% in the east be- ing the lowest score – are critical of the idea of the federalisation of Ukraine. This goes against the grain of popular perceptions about the widespread desire of eastern Ukrainians to see their region as part of a federation rather than the unitary state of Ukraine. What is in- teresting, about 20% (with some re- gional differences) find it hard to answer a question on the federali- sation of Ukraine. These citizens are easy to persuade either one way or the other. In addition, many may simply want greater decentral- isation of the state, and not federal- isation. Graph 15. Support for the idea of Ukraine as a federal state Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re- sults, 2013 The idea of splitting Ukraine into two states enjoys even less sup- port. More than 70% of Ukrainians in all regions do not support sepa- rating parts of Ukraine by creating a state covering the south-east re- gions. The greatest difference is between the east and the west, which is only nine percentage points. Graph 16. Support for the idea of creating two independent states (the south-eastern oblasts vs. the western and central oblasts)
  • 14. 14 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re- sults, 2013 Separatist tendencies are not pop- ular in Ukraine, irrespective of the region of residence. Only 5% in the east and 13% in the south would like their oblast to create an inde- pendent state, separate from Ukraine. Graph 17. Support for separating one’s native oblast and creating an independent state Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re- sults, 2013 Joining Russia is almost equally unpopular. The vast majority of Ukrainians, irrespective of how close to Russia they live, does not want their oblast to join Russia – more than 70% in all regions. For- saking Ukraine for the sake of Rus- sia is popular among not more than 14% of the residents of the south- east. These results are especially significant in the face of the pseudo-referendum, engineered by the Russian authorities in Cri- mea. Graph 18. Support for the idea of separating the south-eastern regions of Ukraine and forcing them to unite with Russia? Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re- sults, 2013 Finally, despite the fact that the re- search shows that regional differ- ences between the east and the west are not that significant and do not justify the claim about two Ukraines, this narrative has be- come relatively popular also within Ukrainian society itself, especially in the east and south. One third of Ukrainians living in the east and south believe that the differences between the two parts of Ukraine are so significant that they may re- sult in the division of Ukraine in the
  • 15. 15 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief future. This conviction is consider- ably less popular in the centre and especially in the west – this opinion is shared by 16% and 10%, respec- tively. It appears that the impact of the Russian media is key here to understanding these regional dif- ferences. The Russian media have been promoting the idea of the “na- tionalistic” west that is so different from the east of Ukraine. As a re- sult, the belief in some insurmount- able differences between the east- erners and westerners is twice as popular in the east as it is in the west of Ukraine. Yet, it is significant that despite such propaganda, the majority of Ukrainians, including the east and south, deny that a two- state solution is possible. Graph 19. Belief that the split of Ukraine is possible due to irreconcilable differences between regions* * The question was: “Do you believe in the existence of deep political contradictions, language and cultural barriers, and eco- nomic disparity between the citizens of the western and eastern regions of Ukraine that in future may result in the separation of these regions and/or the creation of separate independent states on Ukraine’s territory, or make those regions unite with other states?” Source: Razumkov Centre, opinion poll re- sults, 2013 Crimea – poles apart? Once we have seen that the differ- ences between the populations of the east and the west of Ukraine are not that considerable, the ques- tion arises whether Crimea is poles apart from the rest of Ukraine. It is often emphasised that Crimea only joined Ukraine in the 1950s and has never become really Ukrainian in spirit. Crimea is also the native land of the Crimean Tartars, who make up 16% of the peninsula’s population, according to the 2001 census. The Crimean population, compris- ing a considerable group of ethnic Russians who settled there during the communist times as well as families of the Black Sea Fleet members, is indeed much more fa- vourably oriented towards Russia than towards the EU. According to the results of an opinion poll, con- ducted in Crimea in May 2013, sim- ilarly to the east of the country, 53% of the Crimean population would rather see Ukraine join the union with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Bel- arus than the EU (supported by 17%), if they had to make a single choice. It is also noteworthy that one third of the population did not support any of the two options.
  • 16. 16 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief Graph 20. Support for joining the European Union and the Customs Union with Russia* * The questions was: “If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, which entity should it be?” Source: International Republican Institute, 2013 Yet, as the results of the poll demonstrate, the population of Cri- mea neither felt that Russian speakers were in a disadvantaged situation, nor the majority wanted Crimea to change its country alle- giance. The official motivation be- hind Russia’s military intervention and the following annexation of Cri- mea was the protection of its Rus- sian-speaking population, allegedly suffering discrimination under Ukrainian rule. However, an opin- ion poll, conducted in Crimea in May 2013, demonstrates that only six per cent of the population claims that the status of the Rus- sian language was one of the three issues most important to them per- sonally. What is more, the majority of the Crimean population supported the status quo – autonomy within Ukraine. Twelve per cent wanted to have Crimean Tatar autonomy – the percentage is close to the share of Crimean Tatars in the population of the peninsula, whereas annexa- tion by Russia was supported by less than one-fourth of the popula- tion. Graph 21. Opinions on the status of Crimea (in %) Source: International Republican Institute, 2013 An even more recent opinion poll shows that although a rather con- siderable share of the Crimean population would like to see Ukraine and Russia join into one state, it is not the majority of the population. According to the results of the poll conducted in February 2014, several weeks before the ref- erendum, only 41% believed that Russia and Ukraine should unite into one state.
  • 17. 17 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief It is likely that Russian media prop- aganda has convinced more peo- ple of the threats following the change of central government in Ukraine, and thus the support for separating Crimea from Ukraine and joining Russia has increased. Yet, it is hard to believe that Crime- ans have changed their minds en masse within such a short period of time – according to the results of the Crimean referendum presented by the Russian side, more than 90% voted for joining Russia. The analysis of the turnout dynam- ics during the referendum, the re- sults of earlier opinion polls, the fact that Russian citizens were al- lowed to take part in the referen- dum, the boycott of the referendum by Crimean Tartars (12-16% of the population) and the turnout in some places exceeded 100%, all point to the fact that the results of the refer- endum have been considerably manipulated. What is more, there was no space for balanced infor- mation campaign showing pros and cons of joining Russia. The referen- dum was prepared within three weeks during a considerable politi- cal crisis in the country with the presence of Russian troops in the peninsula. A referendum under the barrel of a Kalashnikov can hardly be called free and fair. All in all, the public opinion poll re- sults show that Crimea is not signif- icantly different from the rest of Ukraine and even the territorially modified version of the two Ukraines’ claim is not justified. What is more, support for economic integration with the Russian-led customs union is not tantamount to separatist tendencies and the de- sire to become part of Russia. Conclusions It goes without saying that Ukrain- ian society is diverse in terms of language and culture as well as at- titudes and opinions regarding the future of their state. However, all explanations based on the divi- sions according to language prefer- ences are considerable simplifica- tions and do not reflect the real sit- uation, but rather impose precon- ceived notions, which are largely unfair to Ukrainians and dangerous in terms of the future of the Ukrain- ian state. Ukrainians may not agree on many issues, yet, Ukrainian so- ciety does not consist of two mono- liths or two internally coherent cul- tural-political communities. There- fore, the widely-used category of “Russian speakers” is largely irrel- evant as an explanation of socio- political divisions within Ukrainian society. To sum up:  Both ethnic Russians and Ukrainians often choose to speak Russian. Many Ukrain- ian patriots with strongly pro- western views may speak Rus- sian at home and in everyday situations.  Both Russian- and Ukrainian- speakers were strongly critical of the former president Viktor
  • 18. 18 Language,Identity,Politics-theMythofTwoUkrainesPolicyBrief Yanukovych and the govern- ment of the Party of Regions.  The majority of Ukrainians be- lieve that close cooperation with both the European Union and Russia is in the interest of their state. Yet, when they need to make a single geopo- litical choice, the majority pre- fer the European vector of inte- gration, irrespective of the lan- guage they speak.  Whereas, when people are forced to make a single choice between European integration and the Russia-led customs union, regional differences re- surface. The population in the west and centre prefer the EU and the east prefers the Rus- sian model of integration. Pub- lic opinion in the south is di- vided.  Irrespective of the region of residence or the preferred lan- guage, the majority of Ukraini- ans would like to live in a dem- ocratic state.  After several of years of Viktor Yanukovych’s rule, the major- ity of Ukrainians, irrespective of their preferred language, were critical of his presidency and the government of the Party of Regions.  A decisive majority of Ukraini- ans also have a very positive perception of the situation in Poland. Irrespective of the pre- ferred language or region of residence, Ukrainians believe that the Polish state takes good care of its citizens and Poles enjoy their rights and civil liberties.  The majority of Ukrainians, ir- respective of the language they speak or the region they live in, do not share separatist sentiments. They do not sup- port either the idea of creating two states or separating their region or oblast from Ukraine and making it independent or joining Russia.  Support for close economic co- operation with Russia is not tantamount to the desire to join the Russian state in any region of Ukraine.  Even in Crimea, less than one quarter of the whole population would like to see their region join Russia. The majority sup- ported the status quo – Crimea being part of Ukraine and hav- ing an autonomous status.  The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, irrespective of lan- guage or region of residence, consider themselves patriots of Ukraine and see Ukraine as their motherland. Dr. Joanna Fomina is a sociologist in the European Studies Unit of the Polish Academy of Sciences and IPA associate expert.
  • 20. www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de Address | Contact Bertelsmann Stiftung Carl-Bertelsmann-Straße 256 33311 Gütersloh Phone +49 5241 81-0 Fax +49 5241 81-81999 www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de Gabriele Schöler Senior Project Manager Program The Future of Europe gabriele.schoeler@bertelsmann-stiftung.de Phone +49 (0)5241 81 81 205 Instytut Spraw Publicznych (ISP) ul. Szpitalna 5 / 22 PL - 00-031 Warszawa Phone (+48 22) 5564260 Fax (+48 22) 5564262 www.isp.org.pl Dr Agnieszka Łada Head of the European Programme Senior Analyst Agnieska.lada@isp.org.pl Phone (+48 22) 5564288