Indian Bank’s 1QFY15 reported PAT declined 35% YoY to INR2.1b (31% below expectation). While NIM was largely stable QoQ at 2.4%, loan growth of 8% YoY (expectation of 15% YoY) led to 9% below estimated NII of INR10.7b; buy.

1. 26 July 2014
1QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Indian Bank
Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Sohail Halai (Sohail.Halai@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825430
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
CMP: INR156 TP: INR230 Buy26,127 7,790
Bloomberg INBK IN
Equity Shares (m) 464.8
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 72.5/1.2
52-Week Range (INR) 199/61
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -16/22/25
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E
NII 46.1 51.8 60.0
OP 29.6 33.6 38.5
NP 10.9 13.1 14.9
EPS (INR) 23.4 28.1 32.0
EPS Gr. (%) -6.0 19.8 14.0
BV/Sh. INR 266.1 287.7 312.2
P/E (x) 6.7 5.6 4.9
P/BV (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5
RoE (%) 9.1 10.1 10.7
ROA (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6
 Indian Bank’s 1QFY15 reported PAT declined 35% YoY to INR2.1b (31% below
expectation). While NIM was largely stable QoQ at 2.4%, loan growth of 8% YoY
(expectation of 15% YoY) led to 9% below estimated NII of INR10.7b. Weak fees
(23% below est) and high credit cost of 1% (expectation of 0.8%) impacted PAT.
 Slippages were elevated at INR9.4b (annualized slippage ratio of 3.5%) v/s INR8.8b
in 4QFY14. Sale of loans to ARCs of INR5.2b however helped contain GNPA
increase (+4% QoQ). GNPA and NNPA % increased to 4% and 2.5% as compared to
3.7% and 2.3% - led by denominator effect (sequential loan book declined 5%).
PCR (including technical write-off) was stable QoQ at 57.6%.
 Incremental restructuring of INR14.2b of which INR10.7b was on account of power
segment. OSRL stood at 8% of loans. Of the RL, 70% is contributed by Infra (35%
SEB, 5% AI) and 5% each is contributed by Steel and Textiles.
Valuation and view: 1Q reported earnings were significantly below estimate led by
sharp moderation in loan growth (consolidation of its balance-sheet). NIM was stable
QoQ and management remains confident of maintaining/improving it from current
levels. With strong capitalization (CET I of 10.9%), INBK is well poised to benefit from
up-turn in economic growth. INBK asset quality is highly levered to resolution of
Infrastructure related issues and improvement in Steel and textile segment. Valuations
at 0.5x PBV FY15/16 factor negatives. Maintain Buy.
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

2. 26 July 2014 2
Indian Bank
Quarterly Performance: Significantly below estimates
Y/E MARCH 1QFY15A 1QFY15E Var (%) Comments
Net Interest Income 10,720 11,728 -9
NIM and loan growth below expectation
% Change (Y-o-Y) -2 7
Other Income 2,152 2,853 -25 Fees below estimate
Net Income 12,872 14,582 -12
Operating Expenses 6,502 7,234 -10 Employee expense lower than estimate
Operating Profit 6,370 7,348 -13
% Change (Y-o-Y) -26 -14
Other Provisions 3,256 3,067 6 Credit cost remains elevated at 1%
Profit before Tax 3,114 4,281 -27
Tax Provisions 1,042 1,284 -19 Tax rate of 33% v/s expectation of 30%
Net Profit 2,072 2,997 -31
% Change (Y-o-Y) -35 -6
Source: MOSL, Company
GNPA containment helped by sale of loans to ARCs
 During the quarter slippage amounted to INR9.4b (annualized slippage ratio of
3.5%) as compared to INR8.9b in 4QFY14.
 Core upgrades and recoveries of INR1.6b and sale of loans to ARCs of INR5.2b
helped bank to contain GNPA increase (+4% QoQ).
 In percentage terms, GNPA% and NNPA% was at 4% and 2.5% as compared to
3.7% and 2.3% in FY14 – partially led by 5% sequential decline in loans
(denominator effect).
 During the quarter bank restructured loan of INR14.2b (1.2% of loans) of which
increase was led by power segment (a) discoms – INR4.9b and (2) other power
loans INR5.9b. Further, restructuring came in from segments of iron and steel
and textiles at INR1.7b and INR1.2b respectively.
 OSRL portfolio stood at INR93.1b (8% of loans) of which 35% is from SEB, 5%
from Air India, 30% from other Infra and 5% each from Iron and steel and textile
segment
NIM stable QoQ; sequential decline in loan growth impacted NII
 Global NIMs were stable QoQ at 2.4% (domestic NIMs of 2.5%), however loan
growth was significantly lower than expected at 7% YoY (expectation of 15%).
Lower growth led to 9% below estimated NII of INR10.7b.
 Loan growth came in lower on account of sharp moderation in corporate loans
(up just 6% YoY but declined 10% QoQ) and SME loans (up 8% YoY but declined
6% QoQ). Agriculture growth was strong at 7% QoQ and 18% YoY.
Other highlights
 CASA growth moderated to 8% YoY led by nearly flat CA deposits YoY and SA
deposit growth of 9% YoY. However led by shedding of bulk deposits (INR70b
this quarter), CASA ratio improved to 29.2% and 28.3% a quarter ago.
 Fee income came in significantly below estimate at INR1.7b v/s expectation of
INR2.2b and led to lower than expected other income.
 Credit cost for the quarter came in at 1% which led to higher than expected
provisions despite MTM write-back of INR1b.

3. 26 July 2014 3
Indian Bank
Valuation and view
 1Q reported earnings were significantly below estimate led by sharp moderation
in loan growth (consolidation of its balance-sheet). NIM was stable QoQ and
management remains confident of maintaining/improving it from current levels
with expectation of growth improvement.
 INBK asset quality is highly levered to resolution of Infrastructure related issues
and improvement in Steel and textile segment. Almost 80% of restructured
loans and 40% GNPAs are linked to these segments. Thus while gross stress
loans are 13.23% (GNPA 4%+ RL 9.2%), ~70% is contributed by Infra, textiles and
Iron and steel. Adjusting for these gross stress loans are 4.2% of loan book.
 With strong capitalization, bank is well poised to benefit from up-turn in
economic growth as loan growth will resume and asset quality will show
improvement. Valuations of 0.5x PBV FY15/16 factor negatives, Maintain Buy.
One year forward P/BV
Source: MOSL, Company
One year forward P/E
Source: MOSL, Company
DuPont Analysis: Return ratios to show gradual improvement
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
NII 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
Fee income 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Core Income 3.9 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7
Operating Expenses 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
Cost to Core Income Ratio 61.5 68.4 59.4 56.9 50.4 46.2 40.3 41.9 51.9 56.3 55.0 55.3 54.9
- Employee Costs 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9
- Other Expenses 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Core Operating Profit 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Non Core Income 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Operating Profit 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5
Provisions 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Loan-loss-provisions 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
Other provisions 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.3 (0.0) (0.1) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
PBT 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Tax 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
ROAA 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Leverage (x) 28.2 26.1 20.4 16.3 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.4 17.1 18.2
ROAE 30.6 26.0 28.4 24.9 24.0 24.9 23.0 19.9 15.7 10.3 9.1 10.1 10.7
Source: MOSL, Company

4. 26 July 2014 4
Indian Bank
Story in charts
Loan growth significantly below estimates
825
864
880
912
939
957
1,000
1,072
1,092
1,107
1,122
1,244
1,177
21
23
19 20
14
11
14
18 16 16
12
16
8
1QFY12
1HFY12
9MFY12
FY12
1QFY13
1HFY13
9MFY13
FY13
1QFY14
1HFY14
9MFY14
FY14
1QFY15
Loans (INR b) YoY Gr. (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
Deposit growth moderates as well
1,104
1,162
1,190
1,208
1,270
1,312
1,351
1,420
1,496
1,527
1,576
1,623
1,553
21
19 18
14 15
13 14
18 18 16 17
14
4
1QFY12
1HFY12
9MFY12
FY12
1QFY13
1HFY13
9MFY13
FY13
1QFY14
1HFY14
9MFY14
FY14
1QFY15
Deposits (INR b) YoY Gr. (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
CASA (calculated) improves QoQ (%)
30.5
29.8
30.2
30.5
29.3
29.0
28.3
27.6
26.9
26.8
26.7
27.2
1QFY12
1HFY12
9MFY12
FY12
1QFY13
1HFY13
9MFY13
FY13
1QFY14
1HFY14
9MFY14
1QFY15
Source: MOSL, Company
Margin stable QoQ but below expectation (%)
3.4
3.8
3.6
3.2
3.3
3.1 3.1
2.9 2.9
2.6 2.7
2.5 2.4
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Source: MOSL, Company
Slippages remain elevated...
1.7
3.8 2.9 10.4 2.3 7.3 14.2 13.1 6.4 7.7 5.3 8.9 9.4
1.0
2.2
1.6
5.5
1.1
3.4
6.5
5.8
2.8
3.2
2.2
3.4 3.5
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Slippages (INR b) Slippage Ratio(%)
Source: MOSL, Company
... but loan sale to ARCs help contain GNPA
1.0
1.2
1.4
2.0
1.7
2.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.8
3.4
3.7
4.0
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.3
1.0
1.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.548 43 42
35
38 36 33 33 33 33 35
39 40
1QFY12
1HFY12
9MFY12
FY12
1QFY13
1HFY13
9MFY13
FY13
1QFY14
1HFY14
9MFY14
FY14
1QFY15
GNPA (%) NNPA (%) PCR (%)
Source: MOSL, Company

5. 26 July 2014 5
Indian Bank
Quarterly Snapshot
FY13 FY14 FY15 Variation (%)
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q QoQ YoY
Profit and Loss
Net Interest Income 11,532 11,203 11,434 11,090 10,968 10,937 10,907 10,777 10,720 -1 -2
Other Income 2,227 3,645 2,402 4,589 5,297 2,769 2,426 3,241 2,152 -34 -59
Treasury 223 300 340 1,267 3,144 114 150 405 360 -11 -89
Recovery 341 532 390 718 213 294 500 493 92 -81 -57
Others (Ex non-core) 1,663 2,813 1,672 2,604 1,940 2,361 1,776 2,344 1,700 -27 -12
Total Income 13,759 14,848 13,837 15,678 16,265 13,706 13,332 14,018 12,872 -8 -21
Operating Expenses 5,356 5,764 6,355 10,033 7,672 6,649 7,010 6,984 6,502 -7 -15
Employee 3,691 3,793 4,446 7,808 5,761 4,231 4,863 4,412 4,230 -4 -27
Others 1,665 1,971 1,909 2,224 1,911 2,418 2,146 2,572 2,272 -12 19
Operating Profits 8,402 9,084 7,481 5,646 8,593 7,056 6,323 7,034 6,370 -9 -26
Provisions 1,457 2,022 4,116 4,758 3,681 2,250 2,379 5,939 3,256 -45 -12
PBT 6,945 7,063 3,365 888 4,912 4,807 3,943 1,095 3,114 184 -37
Taxes 2,328 2,096 59 -2,032 1,738 1,749 1,298 -1,618 1,042 -164 -40
PAT 4,617 4,967 3,306 2,919 3,174 3,058 2,645 2,713 2,072 -24 -35
Asset Quality
GNPA 15,539 19,798 31,801 35,655 37,228 41,793 38,348 45,622 47,229 4 27
NNPA 9,631 12,601 21,419 23,843 24,857 28,039 24,836 27,636 28,568 3 15
GNPA (%) 1.7 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.7 4.0 34 60
NNPA (%) 1.0 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.5 20 15
PCR (Calculated, %) 38 36 33 33 33 33 35 39 40 9 628
PCR (Reported, %) 75 71 61 60 61 59 58 58 58 -21 -369
Ratios (%)
Fees to Total Income 12.1 18.9 12.1 16.6 11.9 17.2 13.3 16.7 13.2
Cost to Core Income 40.6 41.1 48.5 73.3 59.4 50.0 55.3 53.2 52.4
Tax Rate 33.5 29.7 1.8 -228.9 35.4 36.4 32.9 -147.8 33.5
CASA (calculated) 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.8 26.7 27.2 27.9
Loan/Deposit 73.9 73.0 74.0 75.5 73.0 72.5 71.2 76.6 75.7
Margins (%) - Reported
Yield on loans 11.3 11.1 11.1 10.6 10.5 10.4 N.A. 10.2 10.1 -8 -36
Cost of Deposits 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 N.A. 7.1 7.1 0 4
Margins 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 -3 -44
Balance Sheet (INR b)
Gross Loans 939 957 1,000 1,072 1,092 1,107 1,122 1,244 1,177 -5 8
Deposits 1,270 1,312 1,351 1,420 1,496 1,527 1,576 1,623 1,553 -4 4
CASA Deposits 372 380 383 391 402 409 421 441 433 -2 8
Loan Break Up
Agriculture 142 151 159 170 172 175 178 190 203 7 18
Corporate & Comm Banking 498 495 509 549 553 554 554 646 584 -10 6
Overseas loans 55 55 61 60 66 0 74 75 69 -8 4
Source: MOSL, Company

6. 26 July 2014 6
Indian Bank
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL Consensus Variation
Forecast Forecast (%)
FY15 23.4 31.3 -25.1
FY16 28.1 37.2 -24.5
Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-14 Mar-14 Jun-13
Promoter 81.5 81.5 80.0
DII 6.5 6.1 6.0
FII 6.9 6.5 8.3
Others 5.1 5.9 5.7
Notes: FII includes depository receipts
Stock performance (1-year)
s

7. 26 July 2014 7
Indian Bank
Financials and valuations
Income Statements (INR Billion)
Y/E March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Interest Income 152.5 169.0 182.6 211.1
Interest Expense 108.9 122.9 130.7 151.1
Net Interest Income 43.6 46.1 51.8 60.0
Change (%) -3.7 5.7 12.5 15.7
Non Interest Income 13.7 12.8 14.9 16.6
Net Income 57.3 58.9 66.7 76.6
Change (%) -1.4 2.7 13.3 14.7
Operating Expenses 28.3 18.6 20.6 23.2
Pre Provision Profits 29.0 40.3 46.2 53.4
Change (%) -5.3 39.0 14.5 15.6
Provisions (excl tax) 14.2 13.4 14.1 16.3
PBT 14.8 26.9 32.1 37.1
Tax 3.2 5.4 6.4 7.3
Tax Rate (%) 21.5 19.9 20.0 19.8
Profits for Equity SH 11.3 10.9 13.1 14.9
Change (%) -26.7 -3.8 19.8 14.0
Equity Dividend (Incl tax) 2.3 2.2 2.6 3.0
Core PPP* 22.0 23.9 26.8 31.3
Change (%) -13.6 8.6 12.1 16.8
Balance Sheet (INR Billion)
Y/E March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Equity Share Capital 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
Reserves & Surplus 134.1 141.3 150.1 160.3
Net Worth 138.7 145.9 154.7 165.0
Deposits 1,622.7 1,768.8 2,034.1 2,400.3
Change (%) 14.3 9.0 15.0 18.0
of which CASA Dep 440.6 503.1 574.6 656.5
Change (%) 12.4 14.2 14.2 14.2
Borrowings 49.6 58.4 62.3 66.4
Other Liabilities & Prov. 62.2 74.9 91.1 111.0
Total Liabilities 1,873.3 2,048.0 2,342.2 2,742.6
Current Assets 104.9 100.5 119.2 140.4
Investments 469.1 516.0 577.9 664.6
Change (%) 12.2 10.0 12.0 15.0
Loans 1,222.1 1,344.3 1,545.9 1,824.2
Change (%) 15.7 10.0 15.0 18.0
Fixed Assets 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.7
Other Assets 47.8 57.4 68.9 82.7
Total Assets 1,873.3 2,048.0 2,342.2 2,742.6
Asset Quality (INR Billion)
Y/E March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
GNPA 45.6 54.5 58.8 61.1
NNPA 27.6 29.9 30.2 28.8
GNPA Ratio 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.3
NNPA Ratio 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.6
PCR (Excl Tech. write off) 39.4 45.0 48.6 52.8
PCR (Incl Tech. Write off) 57.8 61.0 64.4 68.5
Ratios
Y/E March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Spreads Analysis (%)
Avg. Yield-Earning Assets 9.5 9.4 9.0 9.0
Avg. Yield on loans 10.0 10.0 9.6 9.6
Avg. Yield on Investments 8.4 8.0 7.6 7.5
Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liab. 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.6
Avg. Cost of Deposits 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.6
Interest Spread 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4
Net Interest Margin 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE 10.3 9.1 10.1 10.7
RoA 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Int. Expense/Int.Income 71.4 72.7 71.6 71.6
Fee Income/Net Income 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.1
Non Int. Inc./Net Income 23.9 21.8 22.3 21.6
Efficiency Ratios (%)
Cost/Income* 52.9 51.8 51.8 51.7
Empl. Cost/Op. Exps. 68.0 63.5 62.0 60.9
Busi. per Empl. (Rs m) 136.9 145.8 156.2 174.0
NP per Empl. (Rs lac) 6.0 5.3 6.1 6.6
Asset-Liabilty Profile (%)
Loans/Deposit Ratio 75.3 76.0 76.0 76.0
CASA Ratio 27.2 28.4 28.3 27.4
Investment/Deposit Ratio 28.9 29.2 28.4 27.7
G-Sec/Investment Ratio 81.2 82.3 84.5 86.7
CAR 12.6 12.3 11.1 9.9
Tier 1 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.2
Valuation
Y/E March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Book Value (INR) 248.2 266.1 287.7 312.2
Change (%) 2.2 7.2 8.1 8.5
Price-BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Adjusted BV (INR) 206.5 221.1 242.2 268.8
Price-ABV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
EPS (Rs) 24.9 23.4 28.1 32.0
Change (%) -32.2 -6.0 19.8 14.0
Price-Earnings (x) 6.3 6.7 5.5 4.9
Dividend Per Share (INR) 4.7 4.7 5.6 6.4
Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.0 3.6 4.1

8. 26 July 2014 8
Indian Bank
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