2nd OECD-AMRO Asian Regional Roundtable

1. Three strategic breakthroughs to
escape the middle-income trap
Nguyen, Hoang Ha
Development Strategy Institute
Vietnam

2. Content
• Vietnam’s Economic Condition
• Three strategic breakthroughs
• New Challenges

3. I. Vietnam’s Condition (1)
• Vietnam has just joined the middle-income group with GDP
per capita (2012) about USD 1,700.
• Continuing accelerating industrialization, modernization, and
rapid and sustainable development; targeting to become an
industrialized country.
• Economic growth has slowed down since global crisis.
• Questions about the growth economic model and the
necessity of structural reform.
• Switching the focus from robust growth to stabilzing
economy in 2011-2015 period.
• Proposing three strategic breakthroughs to 2020

4. M/GDP (%)
gM (%)
4.7 4.8
gGDP (%) 5.3
5.0
GCF/GDP (%)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1985
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Manufacturing/GDP (%) growth rate of Manufacturing (%)
growth rate of GDP (%) Gross Capital Formation/GDP (%)
I. Vietnam’s Condition (2)

5. ACHIEVEMENTS CHALLENGES2012 & 2013
1 digit inflation Long spell of slow growth
Robust in export
Economic growth
less than Indonesia
and Philippines
since 1994
More diversification in
export goods
Decreasing in Investment
to GDP Ratio

6. Still attracting to foreign
investors, 2nd in ASEAN
Surplus in Current
Accounts
After 2 years,
tncreasing in
Reserves:
12 weeks of
imports
Bankcruptcies
Low Growth in Retail Sector
Imports from
the domestic
sector
contracted by
7%

7. II. Three strategic breakthroughs
1. Improve the socialist oriented market economy
institution, focusing on creation of an environment
for equal competition, and administrative reforms;
2. Develop rapidly human resources, notably high
quality human resources, focusing on comprehensive
renovation of the national education;
3. Develop a synchronous infrastructure system
incorporating modern facilities, focusing on the
transportation network and major urban
infrastructures (total 9 critical infrastructures)

8. Institutions
• Exercise properly State functions, handle judiciously
State-market relationship;
• Improve the State apparatus, and make vigorous
progress in administrative reform;
• Push up the struggle against corruption and
wastefulness.
• Enhance the Party’s leadership and promote the
people’s right as the master in State apparatus
building

9. Human Resources
• Improve human resource quality, renovate
comprehensively and develop rapidly education and
training: (i) market-oriented policy; (ii) a top
national policy
• Develop science and technology as really a key
driving force for rapid and sustainable development;
• By 2020, 96.2 million of people with more 63
million in working ages=> Aging population after
2020

10. Infrastructure
• Focus on reviewing and finalizing country-wide and region-
specific infrastructure development master plans, especially
in relation to transport, hydropower and irrigation, ensuring
economical utilization of resources, socio-economic
efficiency, and environmental protection.
• Develop synchronously and modernize gradually irrigation
systems, with importance attached to building and
consolidating the networks of sea dykes, river dykes,
pumping stations, and salinity control and flash flood
discharge facilities
• Priorities for 9 critical infrastructues

11. No.1

12. New Challenges to Overcome
• Restructuring three nodes: public investments,
commercial banking system, and SOEs.
• Government Structure (Silo system) &
Devolution.
• Legislation System.
• Iron Political Will to eliminate “interest groups”.

13. THANK YOU FOR
YOUR ATTENTION!