Uimp Peter Szovics

Future skill needs in Europe

Presented by

Peter Szovics
Cedefop
8-9 September 2008 1 UIMP, Santander


Overview
• Introduction:
– Cedefop and Skillsnet
– Policy background
– Skill needs
– Rationale and objectives of forecasts
• Methodology: the framework and modules
• Results: Europe’s changing skill needs
– Sectoral prospects
– Occupations
– Replacement needs
– Implications for qualifications
• Summary and conclusions



Cedefop’s role and objective
(a) carrying out thorough applied research and comparative
analyses of VET issues, trends and challenges;

(b) providing an expert and independent European
perspective, developing and encouraging European
approaches, principles and tools to improve VET and
achieve common aims;

(c) being a unique forum bringing together diverse VET
interests of policy-makers, social partners, researchers and
practitioners to encourage mutual learning and debate
proposals for policy and research;

(d) raising awareness and understanding of how VET is
evolving, its role in lifelong learning and its contribution to
other policies.


Cedefop’s medium term priorities
2009-2011
‘European VET policies, trends in skills and
learning, VET’s impact and visibility’
(a) informing European VET policies;
(b) interpreting European trends in and
challenges for skills, competences and learning;
(c) assessing VET’s benefits;
(d) raising the profile of VET.



Cedefop’s activities
Observation
WWW
Cedefop web site,
ETV, virtual
Study visits
communities,
Infodoc
Analysis
Publications Conferences-
European Journal “Agora”,
of VET Seminars,
Research and Expert panels,
policy reports
Sharing
expertise Supporting
Cedefop info
Sector flashes clusters

Networks
Statistics and Refernet, TTNet ,
indicators Evidence based policy Skillsnet,
making CEDRA ,ERO



C
VET
E Refernet
Financing

D EknowVET

E
F Research
reporting
Social
partners

O Statistics and
Indicators
CEDRA
ERO

P’s
Policy
Skillsnet
reporting Analysis
A
C
T EQF/ECVET

I Guidenance Familiarization

V
I
T TT net CQAN

I
E Enhanced

S
Research and cooperation in
Policy Analysis VET and LLL



Some facts and figures, 2008
Human resources
 128 staff
 6 national experts;
 38% male 62% female.
Budget
 around 17.6 m. Euros
Source: WP 2008



Cedefop’s Skillsnet
• International network on early
identification of skill needs
• Platform for dialogue and information
exchange
• On-going projects
Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet



Sectoral workshops
• Trends and skill needs in the tourism sector
2004
• Identification of skill needs in nanotechnologies
2005
• Trends and skill needs in innovative agri-food
and forestry-wood chains 2006
• Future skill needs in the health care sector 2008
• Future skill needs for the green economy 2008



Employer’s surveys
• explore possibilities of employers surveys as
an analytical tool which may help to reveal
qualitative changes in the demand for skills,
competences and qualifications;
• identify existing employers surveys in the EU
Member States and at EU level;
• look for feasible ways to achieve a
comprehensive and comparable analysis of
skill requirements at company level



Skill needs forecasts
Future skill needs in Europe. Focus on 2020
(2008)
Future skill needs in Europe. Medium-term
forecast: key findings (2008)
Medium-term forecast of skills supply in
Europe: (2008)
Towards European skill needs forecasting
(2007)



Policy background
• Council resolution New Skills for New Jobs
2007/C 290/01
• Integrated Guidelines for Growth and Jobs
2008-2010 Council resolution COM (2007) 803
• June 2008 The council (EPSCO) invited the
Commission to report with its first assessment of
the future skills requirements in Europe up to
2020
• Anticipating and matching labour market needs:
New Skills for New Jobs


Terminology
What does the term ‘skill’ stand for?
Market failures for skills
Skill shortages - two dimension
- quantitative and qualitative
Skill gap - qualitative mismatch, transitory nature
Skill shortages (UK NSTF)
EXTERNAL RECRUITMENT PROBLEMS
– Hard to Fill Vacancies (HtFVs)
– Skill Shortage Vacancies (SSVs)
INTERNAL PROBLEMS
– Skill Gaps



Main challenges of labour
markets

• Demographic change
• Technological progress
• Globalisation
• Educational upgrading



What forecasts…
can provide?
– systematic analysis of the implications of continuation
of past trends and patterns of behaviour
– alternative scenarios based on alternative assumptions
– basis for intelligent and informed debate and further
research
cannot provide?
– precise predictions that can be used for detailed
manpower planning (not a crystal ball)
– qualitative information on skills and competences



Key forecasting approaches
• Quantitative, model based projections
• Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies
• Surveys of employers or other groups
• Focus groups/round tables and other
Delphi style methods, including setting up
observatories



European skills forecasting
Cedefop's Skillsnet pro-active approach
– comparable information Europe-wide
– feasible & cost-effective
First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs)
Second stage: supply side (available skills –
people) and identification of possible imbalances
Next stages: further improvement of methods and
data bases; additional research; joint European
approach


Medium-term forecast
of occupational skill needs
Objectives:
• consistent pan-European skills projections
using comparable data
• new methodological framework
• systematic dialogue and discussion
BUT data issues and concerns


Team effort

+ INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY EXPERTS (Skillsnet)



Modular approach to skill needs forecasting
Overview of the Framework

Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios
Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation
Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification
Module 4: Replacement demand



Modular approach  the Framework
Multi-sectoral
macroeconomic
model

Stock and expansion Stock and expansion
demand by demand by
occupation qualification

Replacement demand
by
occupation/qualification

Job openings by Job openings by
occupation qualification



Modelling sectoral employment
• Sectoral employment a function of:
– gross output; labour costs; average hours worked;
energy prices and technical progress (mostly defined
by country and sector)
• Specification:
– short-term dynamics and move towards long-term
equilibrium
• Modelled independently for each country:
• Key employment elasticities (27 country
average)


Projected Sectoral change by country,
2006-2015: continued transition to a
knowledge based, service economy
Change in Employment by Country, 2006-2015

EUR EU
BE CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL NO AT PL PT CH SI SK FI SE GB (27) (25)
Primary &
utilities

Manufacturing

Construction
Distribution &
transport
Business &
other services
Non-marketed
services
% increases 2006-2015
> 20
10 to 20
0 to 10
-10 to 0
< -10



Alternative possible futures:
exploring different scenarios
Scenario Economic growth Social Technological Globalization Demography
and welfare and change and mobility
competitiveness government

A: Baseline Base No change Medium Base Base (ageing
population)

B: Higher Lower taxes Higher Higher Higher
Optimistic and benefits working age
population

C: Lower Higher taxes Lower Lower Higher life
Pessimistic and benefits expectancy,
even higher
dependency


Future trends at a pan-European
level (EU-25+)
• by sector (up to 41 industries)
• by occupation (up to 27 occupations)
• by qualification (3 broad levels)
• plus replacement demands

EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland



Millions

Past 60 Distribution and transport

and 50
Non-marketed

likely
services
Business & other
services
40

future 30
Manufacturing

trends
by 20
Construction

sector 10
Primary sector & utilities

(EU-25+) 0
1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Forecast



100% 4.2 Primary sector
7.8 5.6
Past and 22.4
and utilities

likely 80% 26.7
23.8
Manufacturing +
construction
future Services +
60%
sectoral distribution and
transport
structure 40%

(EU-25+) 70.6 73.4
65.5

20%

0%
1996 2006 2015


17.9
All industries
13.3

Past and Primary sector -3.1

and utilities
likely
-2.3

-2.9 1996-2006

future
Manufacturing
-0.5
2006-2015

sectoral
1.4
Construction
0.4

change Distribution
and transport 3.5
5.9

(EU-25+) Business and 11.6

other services 8.9

Non-marketed 5.1

services 3.2

-5 0 5 10 15 20
million jobs

100%

Past and 80%
34.9 37.8 40.6

likely High-skilled non-
manual occupations
future 60%

occupational 26.0
25.1
24.1 Low-skilled non-
manual occupations
structure 40%

(EU-25+) 29.9 25.6 22.9
Skilled manual
occupations
20%

8.6 10.9 11.8 Elementary
0% occupations
1996 2006 2015

Legislators, senior 3
officials and managers 2.7

3
Professionals
3.8

Technicians and 6

Past and associate professionals

Clerks
-1
4.7

likely -1.3 1996-2006
2006-2015
Service workers and shop 4

future
and market sales workers 2.5

Skilled agricultural -2
and fishery workers -1.7

occupational Craft and related
trades workers
-2
-1.4

change Plant and machine
operators and assemblers
0
0.5

(EU-25+) Elementary occupations
3.5
6

18
All occupations
13.3

-5 0 5 10 15 20
million jobs

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Legislators, senior officials and managers

Professionals

Technicians and associate professionals

Replacement Clerks

Service workers, shop/market sales workers

demand Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

(EU-25+)
Expansion
demand

Craft and related trades workers Replacement
demand

Plant and machine operators and assemblers Total
requirements

Elementary occupations



Million jobs
250

Past and
200
likely High qualification
future 150

qualification
trends 100 Medium qualification

(EU-25+) 50

Low qualification
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015


13
High qualification

Past 12.4

and Medium qualification
13

likely 9.5

future Low qualification
-8 1996-2006
2006-2015
qualification -8.6

change All qualifications
18

(EU-25+) 13.3

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
million jobs


100%

20.9
25.3 29.3
Past and 80% High qualification

likely
future 60%
46.2
48.6 Medium qualification

qualification 40%
49.9

structure
(EU-25+) 20%
32.9
Low qualification
26.2
20.8

0%
1996 2006 2015



Qualification requirements increase in
all occupations – also in elementary jobs
Net change 2006 - 2015

8.3
High-skilled non-manual 3.3
occupations -0.4

2.4
Low-skilled non-manual
1.1
occupations -2.3
High qualification

0.8 Medium qualification
Skilled manual
-4.8 1.5
occupations Low qualification

0.9
Elementary occupations 3.6
-1.0

-5 0 million jobs
5 10


Key similarities and differences
across countries
• Many common trends:
– sectors, occupations, replacement needs,
qualifications
• Some differences:
– stage of economic development, different
industrial & occupational structures
► process of convergence


Key results: summary
• Further sectoral shifts towards services
• Growing demand for highly and medium
skilled workers, losses for low skilled
• Losses offset by replacement needs
• Increasing qualification requirements
across all jobs but at the same time
growing demand for elementary
occupations


Implications for policies
Adaptation of workforce and their skills to
new requirements and structural change
 retraining, active LM measures, up-skilling,…
Prevention of skill mismatch  reducing drop-
outs, guidance and counselling, social policies,
migration, recognition of non&in-formal learning
►INVOLVEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS
AND SOCIAL PARTNERS



Achievements to date
• consistent and comprehensive projections
for EU-25+
• valuable insights for policy makers and
others
• sound foundation for further development
► ongoing process: need to improve data
and methods



Future priorities
Continuing dialogue: with country experts
and stakeholders
Overcome data problems: policy support
needed to refine data
Further refinement: the models/framework
Complementary research: forecast of skills
supply and more detailed analysis of skill
needs at enterprise and sectoral level


Contact details for further
information:
Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet

Manfred Tessaring, Alena Zukersteinova,
Dunkel Torsten, Peter Szovics
Skillsnet-team@cedefop.europa.eu


Uimp Peter Szovics

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