Presenting the paper by P. Läderach, T. Oberthür, O. Ovalle and A. Eitzinger on “Impacts of global climate change in Mesoamerican coffee systems” within the first of two sub sessions of the Coffee Agronomy – Sustainability and Agroecology block.

1. Climate change impact in Mesoamerican coffee systems P Läderach, O Ovalle, A Eitzinger, M Baca Presented by T Oberthür The 23rd International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Bali, Indonesia, October 2010

4. Framework Perceptions “The climate has become inpredictable it rains less and very irregularly, my yield has decreased and I have more pest and disease problems.” Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, January, 2010

5. Framework Perceptions

7. El Salvador (GMCR)

8. Guatemala (GMCR)

11. Methodology Overall Approach Output Process Inputs Statistical Downscaling of Climate Information Future Climates at Local scale Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling Yield and Quality Impacts Production and Quality Data EXPOSURE Vulnerability Analyses Socio Economic Information ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Alternative Livelihood Strategies SENSITIVITY

13. Transport of products

14. Quality of accommodation

15. Access to formal and informal education

16. Level of knowledge of farming system management.

17. Health and feeding

18. Organization

20. Variability of production

21. Price variability

22. Variability in annual revenue and income diversification

23. Access to markets

24. Access to alternative technology

25. Access and availability of water

26. Contamination

27. Conservation

28. Soil conditions and fertilitySee presentation A130 by Celi et al.

29. Results Preliminary Findings Exposure

30. Results Average change in coffee suitability by 2050

31. Results Average climate change in coffee areas in Nicaragua

32. Results Change in coffee suitability by 2050 in Nicaragua

33. Results Altitudinal shift of production areas in Nicaragua

34. Results Predicted production impact in Nicaragua

35. Results Predicted economic impact in Nicaragua

36. Results Suitability and area change for other crops in Nicaragua Suitability change of most important crops versus suitability-loosing area (%). Nicaragua suitability change for 30 crops versus proportion of current suitable area that will likely lose suitability, bubble size is total annual production (%). Grey circles are staple food crops and white circles area non staple food crops.

37. Results Preliminary Findings Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity

38. Results General livelihood impacts in Nicaragua Highly variable yields Dependency on coffee Postharvest management Pest and disease issues Migration

39. Results Specific vulnerability profiles of farmers in Nicaragua

40. Results Specific vulnerability profiles of farmers in Nicaragua Madriz is characterized by low exposure(coffee will still grow in 2050), high sensitivity(bad roads, high variability in yield) and low adaptive capacity(poor organizational structure, few benefits provided by the organization and high contamination of natural resources). The emphasis of their adaptation strategy is on the conservation of natural resources, capacity building, diversification and awareness of governments

41. Results Specific vulnerability profiles of farmers in Nicaragua Matagalpa is characterized by high exposure (coffee suitability decreases drastically) high sensitivity (high variability in yields) and low adaptive capacity (poor access to credit, poor knowledge on pest and disease management and low diversification). The adaptation strategy focuses on diversification, capacity building, strengthening of the organizations and on the enforcement of environmental laws and development policies for the coffee sector.

42. Los colores muestran: Precipitación promedio anual Cruz Alejandro Gomez La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 Matagalpa, Nicaragua Factores ambientales: Precipitación promedio anual: 1.900mm

43. Los colores muestran: Cambio de la Adaptabilidad (%) para el año 2050 Cruz Alejandro Gomez La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 Matagalpa, Nicaragua Factores ambientales: Cambio Adaptabilidad año 2050: -37%

44. Los colores muestran: Cambio de la Adaptabilidad (%) para el año 2050 Cruz Alejandro Gomez La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 Matagalpa, Nicaragua Factores ambientales: Cambio Adaptabilidad año 2050: -37% Cultivos alternativos (Adaptabilidad): Cacao 70% Frijol 56% Papa 34%

45. Conclusions Consensus of diverse GCM and downscaled future climates implies that threat is real, for coffee more than for other crops Variability in vulnerability requires a robust process to site specifically determine impacts Adaptation needs a portfolio of options building on existing risk management strategies Upgarding portfolio is likely to include: product (i.e. higher quality, symbolic quality), process (i.e. new genetic materials), channel (supplying different market segments), and increasingly intersectorial (e.g. strategies based on different crops or ecosystem services) Complexity requires innovative partnerships between private and public sector

46. Climate change impact in Mesoamerican coffee systems P Läderach, T Oberthür, O Ovalle, A Eitzinger, M Baca The 23rd International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Bali, Indonesia, October 2010 Thank you! Peter Läderach (CIAT) p.laderach@cgiar.org Thomas Oberthür toberthur@ipni.net