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Julian R - Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Global Plant Biodiversity

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Decision and Policy Analysis Program
Decision and Policy Analysis Program

Assessing impacts of climate change on global plant diversity using the GBIF database, for conservation planning objectives.

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Towards the Wallace Initiative: Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT Bioversity International
The Wallace Initiative framework: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Conservation International
The data: current and future climates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results: distribution of protected areas ,[object Object],[object Object]
Results: protected areas per AVOID region Proportion of nationally and internationally protected area Current extent of in situ conservation Some issues in highly diverse areas… Global biodiversity currently well conserved
Modeling approach ,[object Object],[object Object],Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION Potential habitat expansion NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
 
Results: Current and future predicted species richness ,[object Object],[object Object],CURRENT NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
Results: changes in species richness ,[object Object],[object Object]
Results: changes in species richness ,[object Object],[object Object],UNLIMITED MIGRATION NULL MIGRATION
Planning conservation strategies Where to adapt? Where to restore?
Planning conservation strategies Where to prioritize?
Como manejar la biodiversidad hacia el futuro? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results: changes within AVOID regions ,[object Object]
Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC ,[object Object],[object Object]
Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION (+)RPT (-)DIV (-)RPT (-)DIV (+)RPT (-)DIV (+)RPT (+)DIV (+)RPT (-)DIV (-)RPT (+)DIV
Refugia identification ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Refugia identification ,[object Object],Intense habitat degradation period Detections to 2009… but can be extrapolated to 2100 Date Number of Pixels with LUC Test area in Bolivia
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Next steps… scientific rigor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Next steps… analysis of policy implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Julian R - Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Global Plant Biodiversity

  • 1. Towards the Wallace Initiative: Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT Bioversity International
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  • 7. Results: protected areas per AVOID region Proportion of nationally and internationally protected area Current extent of in situ conservation Some issues in highly diverse areas… Global biodiversity currently well conserved
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  • 13. Planning conservation strategies Where to adapt? Where to restore?
  • 14. Planning conservation strategies Where to prioritize?
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