2. Content Some background on climate change and what it means for agriculture Focus on crop wild relatives: threats and opportunities The CGIAR-ESSP lead Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security global program of research Concluding remarks
4. Global Climate Models (GCMs) 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future Run using different emissions scenarios
13. Impacts of climate change to food security Lobell et al. looked at impacts of climate change on food security Cassava clearly highlighted as suffering least among many staples Particular opportunities as an alternative crop for southern Africa
18. Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
19. Grassy stunt virus in rice Resistance from Oryzanivaragenes (Barclay 2004) Potato late blight Resistance from Solanumdemissun and S. stoloniferum National potato council (2003)
31. Summary Impacts 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct Most species losing over 50% of their range size Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct
32. Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
35. Concentration of the natural distributiononthearea of mostintensivecattle-raising and cropproductionactivity in Brazil has notbeen a seriousproblem, in thepast, forpreservation of local wild species of Arachis, buttheadvance of themodern, mechanizedagriculture, in thelastfewdecades, and speciallythe use of herbicideshaveimposedseverepressureon wild populations. Thisisalso true for Eastern Bolivia, wheremanyspecies of sectionArachisoccur. Adapted from Nature, v.466, p.554-556, 2010 Slide provided by Jose Valls, CENARGEN
38. Why Gap Analysis? Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool
39. To know what you don’t have, you first need to know what you do have
48. Wild Vigna collecting priorities Spatial analysis on current conserved materials *Gaps* in current collections Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species
61. Improved Environmental Benefits Improved Livelihoods Improved Food Security Trade-offs and synergies Climate Variability and Change Current agricultural, NRM & food systems 1. Adaptation for confronting climate risk 2. Adaptation for progressive climate change 3. Mitigation for reducing GHG emissions, enhancing carbon-storage and reducing poverty 4. Diagnosis and vulnerability assessment for making strategic choices Adapted agricultural, NRM & food systems
62. Major research questions to be addressed: What priority genepools for climate change adaptation are threatened, and how can they be conserved to ensure their continuing availability? How do cultural practices exploit this diversity and how can farmers’ knowledge be used to help identify landraces and crop varieties suited for specific climatic conditions? How can access to crop diversity local farmers be facilitated through enhanced seed systems or other mechanisms? How does on farm crop diversity in production systems contribute to maintaining productivity in the face of progressive climate change and increased variability in climate?
63. Conclusions Major challenges from climate change: can agriculture stand up to a 2 degree warmer world? Plant genetic resources threatened by climate change, but also a key element of the solution Crop wild relative use on the increase, but poorly conserved ex situ and under threat in situ Need for a major collecting effort to fill gaps, and explore novel genetic approaches to further stimulate their use