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Attack graphs are models that offer significant cap abilities to analyse security in network systems. A n attack graph allows the representation of vulnerabi lities, exploits and conditions for each attack in a single unifying model. This paper proposes a methodology to explore the graph using a genetic algorithm (GA) . Each attack path is considered as an independent at tack scenario from the source of attack to the targ et. Many such paths form the individuals in the evoluti onary GA solution. The population-based strategy of a GA provides a natural way of exploring a large numb er of possible attack paths to find the paths that are most important. Thus unlike many other optimisation solutions a range of solutions can be presented to a user of the methodology.

Attack graph based risk assessment and optimisation approach

IJNSA Journal

The paper proposed a model for estimating the quantitative indicator of current risks of threats and cyberattacks realization on information communication systems of transport (ICST), that differs from the existing models with ability to take into account the degree of influence of each threat or cyberattack within the class on the probability of an emergency situation that arises at cyber-attacks on components

Ijciet 10 02_001

IAEME Publication

The challenging nature of insecure wireless channels and the open-access environment make the protection of vehicular ad hoc network (VANET) a particularly critical issue. Robust approaches to protect this network's security and privacy against attacks need to be improved, trying to achieve an adequate level, to secure the confidential information of drivers and passengers. Accordingly, to improve the security of VANET, it is necessary to carry out a risk assessment, in order to evaluate the risk this network is facing. This paper focuses on the security threats in VANET, particularly on the availability of this network. We propose a novel risk assessment approach to evaluate the risk of the attack against VANET availability. We adopt a tree structure called attack-tree to model the attacker's potential attack strategies. Based on this attack-tree, we can estimate the probability that a specific menace might lead against VANET and detect potential attack sequences that an attacker could launch against VANET availability. Then, we utilize the utility multi-attribute theory to measure the total risk value of the system, including the probabilities of each sequence of attack. The analysis results of the study will help decision-makers take effective precautions to prevent attack on this network’s availability.

A risk and security assessment of VANET availability using attack tree concept

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Goal and threat modelling are important activities of security requirements engineering: goals express why a system is needed, while threats motivate the need for security. Unfortunately, existing approaches mostly consider goals and threats separately, and thus neglect the mutual influence between them. In this paper, we address this deficiency by proposing an approach that extends goal modelling with threat modelling and analysis.

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To cope up the network security measures with the financial restrictions in the corporate world is still a challenge. At global scenario the tradeoff between the protection of IT infrastructure and the financial boundation for any organization using IT as valuable resource is quite essential. Every organization has different security needs and different budgets for coping with that therefore whether it has to look as single objective or as multiple objectives with fault tolerant feature is a critical issue. In the present paper an attempt has been taken to optimize and analyze the effectiveness of security hardening measures considering attack tree model as base. In short we can say that the main attention in the paper is-to rectify, to describe the notations of the attack tree model and to suggest a model which may be able to quantitatively specify the possible threats as well as cost of the security control while implementing the security hardening measures.

OPTIMIZING AND ANALYSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SECURITY HARDENING MEASURES USI...

IJNSA Journal

In this paper, a greedy algorithm is proposed, to find optimal set of countermeasures that minimizes total cost of Security Investment subject to constraint that it covers entire set of attack events. This algorithm makes use of Birnbaum’s Structural Importance Measure to find compute criticality of basic attack events in achieving the goal. It helps in prioritizing the countermeasures covering the attack events.

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Security metrics serve as a powerful tool for organizations to understand the effectiveness of protecting computer networks. However majority of these measurement techniques don’t adequately help corporations to make informed risk management decisions. In this paper we present a stochastic security framework for obtaining quantitative measures of security by taking into account the dynamic attributes associated with vulnerabilities that can change over time. Our model is novel as existing research in attack graph analysis do not consider the temporal aspects associated with the vulnerabilities, such as the availability of exploits and patches which can affect the overall network security based on how the vulnerabilities are interconnected and leveraged to compromise the system. In order to have a more realistic representation of how the security state of the network would vary over time, a nonhomogeneous model is developed which incorporates a time dependent covariate, namely the vulnerability age. The daily transition-probability matrices are estimated using Frei's Vulnerability Lifecycle model. We also leverage the trusted CVSS metric domain to analyze how the total exploitability and impact measures evolve over a time period for a given network.

A predictive framework for cyber security analytics using attack graphs

IJCNCJournal

CSIAC_V1N4_FINAL_2

Daksha Bhasker PEng (CIE), MBA CISM CISSP CCSK

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Computers & Industrial Engineering 54 (2008) 34–44 www.elsevier.com/locate/dsw A quantitative model for aviation safety risk assessment Huan-Jyh Shyur * Department of Information Management, Tamkang University, 151 Ying-Chuan Road, Tamsui, Taipei, Taiwan Received 2 August 2006; received in revised form 14 June 2007; accepted 14 June 2007 Available online 21 June 2007 Abstract The objective of this research is to develop an analytic method that uses data on both accident and safety indicators to quantify the aviation risk which are caused by human errors. A specified proportional hazard model considering the base- line hazard function as a quadratic spline function has investigated and demonstrated its applicability in aviation risk assessment. The use of the proposed model allows investigation of non-linear effects of aviation safety factors and flexible assessment of aviation risk. A subset of data gathered from the Fight Safety Management Information System (FSMIS) developed by the office of the Taiwan Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA) was applied to accomplish this study. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is a more promising approach with the potential of becoming very useful in practice and leading to further generalization of aviation risk analysis. � 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Risk assessment; Aviation safety; Human error; Proportional hazard model 1. Introduction As the worldwide air transportation traffic volume grows rapidly, safety in aviation becomes a burning problem over many countries today. Aviation accident may result in human injury or even death. It influences the reputation and the economy of the air transportation industry of a country. According to the analysis of Mineata (1997), when today’s accident rate is applied to the traffic forecast for 2015, the result would be the crashing of an airliner somewhere in the world almost every week. Braithwaite, Caves, and Faulkner (1998) stated that in order to achieve safety and reduce accident rate, we must quantify risk and balance it with appropriate safety measures. In order to ensure the public safety and maintain a safe aviation environment, developing an analytic method that moves beyond the essential identification of risk factors to assess the safety performance and discover the potential hazards of airlines is indispensable. McFadden and Towell (1999) mentioned, while appre- ciating the value of accident investigations in identifying the cause and initiating corrective actions to prevent future errors, that a fundamental shift in the emphasis to ‘‘proactive safety’’ would be necessary. To achieve 0360-8352/$ - see front matter � 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2007.06.032 * Tel.: +88 6226215656 2881. E-mail address: [email protected] mailto:[email protected] H.-J. Shyur / Computers & Industrial Engineering 54 (2008) 34–44 35 ‘‘proactive safety’’, an ...

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