1. Economic outlook and trade perspectives
in Latin America and the Caribbean. 2012
Viña del Mar, Chile. 26 de noviembre de 2012
Ricardo J. Sánchez
Senior Economic Affairs Officer
Chief, Infrastructure Services Unit
Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division

2. Index
Regional macroeconomic
context
International context
Economic perspectives:
macroeconomy and trade

3. Regional performance in 2012:
 Inflation, employment and wages
 External sector
 Policies: Fiscal and Monetary

4. Economic activity continues to expand (3.2%), but at a
lower rate than 2011
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2012
(In percentages)
Panama 9.5
Haiti 6.0
Peru 5.9
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 5.0
Nicaragua 5.0
Costa Rica 5.0
Chile 5.0
Bolivia (Plur. St. of) 5.0
Dominican Republic 4.5
Equador 4.5
Colombia 4.5
Central America (9 countries) 4.4
Mexico 4.0
Uruguay 3.5
Guatemala 3.5
Latin America 3.2
Latin America & the Caribbean 3.2
Honduras 3.2
Cuba 3.0
South America (10 countries) 2.8
El Salvador 2.0
Argentina 2.0
Brazil 1.6
The Caribbean 1.6
Paraguay -2.0
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

5. Qué explica en menor ritmo de crecimiento?
LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY
7%
6%
5%
4%
Brazil
3% Argentina
2%
The Caribbean
Mexico
1%
Central America
0% Rest of South America
-1% Latin America & the Caribbean
-2%
-3%
2004
2005
2009
2010
2011
2012
2006
2007
2008
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

6. Consumption continues to be the main driver of
GDP growth
LATIN AMERICA: RATE OF GDP VARIATION AND THE CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH OF THE
COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND
(2005 constant dollars, in percentages, weighted averages)
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Public Consumption Private Consumption Investment Net Exports GDP
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.

7. A wide array of policies and measures
(with differences between countries) has been applied
between 2003/2008 and 2012
1. Fiscal policy
2. Monetary policy
3. Social and labour policies
4. Sectoral and trade policies
27

8. Inflation maintained its downward trend of the first
quarter of the year
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, FOOD PRICE INDEX AND CORE
INFLATION, 2009-2012
(12-month change, simple average)
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
February
February
February
February
December
December
December
August
August
August
October
October
April
October
April
March
April
March
March
April
March
May
May
May
May
June
June
June
June
January
January
January
January
November
July
November
July
July
July
November
September
September
September
2009 2010 2011 2012
CPI Core Food
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
12

9. Current account
LATIN AMERICA (19 COUNTRIES): STRUCTURE OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT, 2006-2012 a
(As a percentage of GDP)
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Goods balance Services balance Income balance Current transfers balance Current account balance
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
a Figures for 2012 correspond to projections.
19

10. Until mid-2012, at the regional level, there was a
continuous increase of employment which positively
affected consumption
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (10 COUNTRIES): EMPLOYMENT RATE AND URBAN
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, FOUR QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE, 2009 TO SECOND QUARTER 2012
(In percentages)
56.50 9.00
8.50
56.00
8.00
55.50
7.50
55.00 7.00
6.50
54.50
6.00
54.00
5.50
53.50 5.00
Employment rate (left scale) Unemployment rate (right scale)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
13

11. Financial access
INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUESa
(In millions of dollars, basis points)
30,000 800
700
25,000
600
20,000
500
15,000 400
300
10,000
200
5,000
100
0 0
Oct-07
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-08
Oct-11
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-07
Jul-08
Jan-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-07
Apr-10
Private-sector Banks Sovereign Quasi-sovereign EMBI+ Latin America (right scale)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from Latin Finance, Bonds Database, JP
Morgan and Merrill Lynch.
a Emerging Markets Bonds Index
20

12. Latin America: Varying fiscal spaces, but greater than
those of OECD countries
LATIN AMERICA AND OECD: OVERALL FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT, 2011
(As a percentage of GDP)
3.0
2.0 PER
PRY
1.0 CHL BOL
NIC
Overall fiscal balance 2011
0.0
HTI URY
-1.0 Latin America
ECU COL
-2.0
DOM MEX ARG PAN
-3.0 BRA
GTM
VEN SLV
-4.0 CRI
0.0
-5.0 HND LA
-4.0
-6.0 OECD
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 -8.0 50
Gross public debt 2011 0 20 40 60 80 100
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
22

13. International reserves
LATIN AMERICA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
(Index numbers, averages before the crisis = 100)
350.00
300.00
12,546
377,221
13,064
250.00
59,836
165,393
38,421
200.00 4,832
35,276
6,766
150.00
45,152 4,898 4,219
25,932
100.00
50.00
0.00
Post Crisis Average (Q1 2010-Q2 2012) Aug-12
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures
25 * The values represent international reserves in millions of USD for August 2012

14. B
The variability of nominal exchange rates has
increased
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATE OF CHANGE OF THE NOMINAL EXCHANGE
RATE, DECEMBER 2011 TO AUGUST 2012
Colombia -7.5%
Chile -7.2%
Mexico -4.4%
Peru -2.6%
Costa Rica -2.5%
Bolivia (Plur. St. of) -0.7%
Paraguay -0.3%
Trinidad & Tobago -0.3%
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 0.0%
Panama 0.0%
DEPRECIATION
El Salvador 0.0%
Equador APPRECIATION 0.0%
Dominica 0.0%
Guatemala 0.3%
Honduras 0.4%
Dominican Rep. 1.4%
Nicaragua 2.9%
Jamaica 3.1%
Haiti 4.2%
Argentina 6.6%
Uruguay 7.0%
Brazil 10.2%
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
26 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures

15. EXPECTATIONS: Moderate recovery in some
countries and a slight deceleration in others in 2013
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2013
(In percentages)
Haiti 7.5
Panama 7.0
Peru 5.5
Paraguay 5.0
Nicaragua 5.0
Chile 4.8
Dominican Republic 4.5
Equador 4.5
Colombia 4.5
Bolivia (Plur. St. of) 4.5
Latin America & the Caribbean 4.0
Uruguay 4.0
Mexico 4.0
Costa Rica 4.0
Brazil 4.0
Guatemala 3.5
Argentina 3.5
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 3.0
Honduras 3.0
Cuba 3.0
The Caribbean 2.2
El Salvador 2.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
9 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

16. EXPECTATIONS: for 2013 a moderate recovery of
growth, mainly due to an upturn in Brazil
LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2% Brasil Argentina El Caribe
México Centroamérica Resto de América del Sur
-3% América Latina y el Caribe
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
7

17. Conclusions
• A slight deceleration in 2012 and a modest
recovery in 2013
• The (varied) country outlook will depend on the
external situation and on the capacity to respond
28

18. Index
Regional macroeconomic
context
International context
Economic perspectives:
macroeconomy and trade

19. Global production and trade began to slow down
starting in the second half of 2011
WORLD AND MAIN REGIONS: PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS, 2010-2012
A. Industrial output by volume B. Exports by volume
(Annual growth in percentage) (Annual growth in percentage)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of CPB Netherlands Bueau of Policy Analysis.
32

20. The euro zone (except Germany) is in recession,
partly as a result of deep fiscal adjustments
A. Germany and euro zone excluding Germany: B. Euro zone excluding Germany:
quarterly growth public debt and fiscal deficit
(Percentages of GDP) (Percentages of GDP)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Eurostat and IMF.
34

21. Performance in the euro zone has been
uneven among the countries
SELECTED EURO ZONE COUNTRIES: CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP RISK PREMIUMS
(basic points)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Bloomberg.
35

22. Recovery in the United States
UNITED STATES: CUMULATIVE GROWTH IN THE FOUR YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS
(Index: crisis year=1)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators.
37

23. The complex fiscal situation in the United States
is constraining growth
UNITED STATES: QUARTERLY CHANGE IN GDP, 1990-2013
(Quarterly rates of variation in percentages)
2. Spending cuts and tax hikes postponed
- Deficit narrows to 6.5% of GDP.
- Unemployment around 8%.
- Economy grows 1.7% in 2013.
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of the United
States Bureau of Economic Analysis and estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (2012).
40

24. The crisis has shifted the US’ export patterns: Asia and
Latin America have become the main destination markets
UNITED STATES: STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS BY DESTINATION, 2001 AND 2011
(Percentages of the total)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of the United States Department of Commerce.
41

25. The main challenge for China is to shift its source
of growth from investment to consumption
A. Gross fixed capital formation as B. Private consumption as a percentage of GDP
a percentage of GDP (Percentages)
(Percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators.
43

26. Compared with previous recoveries, patterns are
markedly different in the North and the South
RECOVERIES AFTER THE CRISIS OF 2009 COMPARED WITH 1982 AND 1991
A. Constant GDP in 2005 dollars and purchasing power parity
(Index: crisis year=100)
(a) Advanced economies (b) Developing economies
B. Goods and services export volumes
(Index: crisis year=100)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Eurostat and
International Monetary Fund.
42

27. Index
Regional macroeconomic
context
International context
Economic perspectives:
macroeconomy and trade

28. In the next 5 years, Asia will provide almost half of global
growth; LAC will contribute more than Western Europe
CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL GROWTH BY REGION, 2012-2017
(Percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012.
44

29. Global export growth begins to slow. Global exports are going to
grow more slowly in the post-crisis (?) period than they did pre-
crisis
WORLD TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
(Annual rates of variation and average pre- and post-crisis)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Trade Organization.
a The figure for 2013 corresponds to estimates by IMF, World Economic Outlook, June 2012 update.
33

30. For 2012, ECLAC projects export volumes growth of
5.1% and import growth of 3.7%
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AND SUBREGIONS: PROJECTED VARIATION
IN GOODS TRADE VALUE BY PRICE AND VOLUME, 2012
(Percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information for January-July 2012 for
Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, and January-June 2012 for the other countries in the region.
For 2013: 6.2% export volumes growth of 5% imports

31. In conclusion

32. Ricardo J. Sánchez
Thank
You! Chief
Infrastructure Services Unit
Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division
United Nations ECLAC
+56 2 210-2131
Ricardo.Sanchez@ECLAC.org
http://www.eclac.org/transporte
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