Agile Estimation and Release Planning Guide
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This document provides an introduction to agile estimation and release planning. It discusses estimating the effort for each product backlog item, prioritizing items, using iterations to determine average team velocity, creating a candidate schedule based on velocity, and continuously monitoring and adapting the plan based on real progress. The key messages are that plans will change and embracing change is important, estimating includes uncertainty, and the goal is to deliver working software frequently.
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Agile Estimation and Release Planning Guide
- 1. An Introduction to Agile Estimation and Release Planning Phillip Calçado pcalcado@thoughtworks.com © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 2. Agile Estimation 1 - Product Backlog ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 3. 2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks How long is this going to take? -1 day? -1 week? -Forever? © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 4. 2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks Is #1 likely to take longer than #2 ? ThoughtWorks © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 5. How much longer? = ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 ? #2 #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks ? ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 #1 #1 ? © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 6. How much longer? = ☑ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 ? #2 #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks #1 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks #1 #1 #1 #1 ? © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 7. Let’s create a unit =2 ThoughtWorks #1 © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 8. Let’s create a unit =2 ThoughtWorks #1 then =6 ThoughtWorks #2 © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 9. 2 - Estimate Each Item ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 10. 2 - Estimate Each Item •Stories will change •Everyone estimates •Points aren’t a unit of time •Being consistent is more important than being accurate •Estimates must include uncertainty © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 11. 3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 12. 3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2$$$ 6 $ 4$$$ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 $ 4 $ 6 $$ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 $ 4 $$ 4 $$ © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 13. 3 - Prioritise ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2$$$ 6 $$ 4 $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4$$$ 4 $$ 6 $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4 $$ 2 $ 2 $ © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 14. 3 - Prioritise •It is important to help the client prioritise •But the client has the final word •Technical dependencies are relevant •Priorities will change over time © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 15. 4 - Assess Velocity Points = Effort Duration = ? © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 16. Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 2 4 2 2 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 2 4 4 4 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 4 4 4 6 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 2 6 2 2 6 8 10 14 14 14 18 © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 17. Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 8 10 14 14 14 18 Velocity © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 18. 4 - Assess Velocity What’s our average Velocity likely to be? © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 19. 4 - Assess Velocity •Planned Velocity is useful only until we have real data - just an educated guess •“Yesterday’s weather” is more important than average •Iterations must create production-quality increments •Velocity is specific for a team © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 20. 5 - Candidate Schedule Say planned Velocity is 6 © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 21. 5 - Candidate Schedule Say planned Velocity is 6 Backlog is 34 points total © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 22. 5 - Candidate Schedule 34 / 6 = 6 Iterations © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 23. 5 - Candidate Schedule Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 2 6 2 2 6 4 $$$ $$ $ $ $ $ ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks ThoughtWorks 4 4 4 $$$ $$ $$ © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 24. 5 - Candidate Schedule •Ramp-up time usually has a huge impact •Pay attention to cost/scope/ time constraints •Aim at delivering early and often © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 25. 6 - Monitor and Adapt Plans are not that important. Planning is. © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 26. 6 - Monitor and Adapt Real World Example Original Plan Actual Total Scope 60 45 Points 30 15 0 Start 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 27. 6 - Monitor and Adapt •You can’t embrace change and have a plan written in stone •Re-estimate whenever necessary •Don’t try and force real life to look like your plan - It’s the other way around © ThoughtWorks 2008
- 28. Concluding •This is just a framework - there are multiple variants •The customer is a partner during estimation and planning •Don’t try to change the world, change your plan © ThoughtWorks 2008