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小世界流行病學建模與公共衛生政策評估 利用社會分身點概念與區域資訊 建構社會網路式流行病學電腦模擬 Small-World Epidemiological Modeling and  Public Health Policy Assessment Using the Social Mirror Identities Concept and Local Information  for Network-based Epidemic Simulations 交通大學 資訊工程所 博士學位校外口試 學生:黃崇源 指導老師:孫春在教授 2005.11.11
Outline Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, SmallWorld Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
If Avian Flu Strikes Taiwan … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],TOO SLOW!
A Suitable Epidemic Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Epidemic Problems and Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks  Complex Systems Susceptible ( S ) Incubation ( N ) Infected ( I ) Dead ( D ) Recovered ( R ) Immune ( M )
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Epidemic Simulations (cont.) Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
Population-based Epidemic Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Population-based Epidemic Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
Simple Network-based Epidemic Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Simple Network-based Epidemic Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Small-World Network Epidemic Simulations
Small-World Network Epidemic Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS  and associated with  Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Social Mirror Identity Concept
CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS  and associated with  Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
Cellular Automata with Social Mirror Identity Model Epidemiological Factors Factors of Individual Diversity Factors of Social Networks Epidemic Disease Agent Population Mirror Identity Concept Social Contact Network
Parameters of CASMIM Social Contact Network Mirror Identity Concept Agent Population Epidemic CASMIM
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Features of CASMIM Social Contact Network Mirror Identity Concept Agent Population Epidemic Andy Bob Cindy CASMIM
Simulation Framework Epidemic Disease Data from WHO, CDC, and individual national health authorities Time points of imported cases and public health policies Interaction rules; population, network, and epidemic parameters Input Initialize Output CASMIM
CASMIM Simulation System CASMIM
CASMIM Simulation System (cont.) CASMIM
CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS  and associated with  Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Social Contact Network Mirror Identity Concept Agent Population Epidemic CASMIM
Sensitivity Analysis Experiment 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A slow and logarithmic growth relationship between the total agent population and average degree of separation CASMIM
Sensitivity Analysis Experiment 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Small-World Networks CASMIM
CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS  and associated with  Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Social Contact Network Mirror Identity Concept Agent Population Epidemic CASMIM
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Local Information & Distribution Mechanisms 上面圖表顯示,在新加坡的  SARS  超級傳染事件鏈中, 個體  1 、 6 、 35 、 127 是所謂的超級傳染者。
Sensitivity Analysis of Neighborhood Type ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CASMIM CASMIM
Conclusions of Experiment 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sensitivity Analysis of Weak Individuals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CASMIM
Conclusions of Experiment 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sensitivity Analysis of Distribution Patterns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CASMIM
Conclusions of Experiment 3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analysis Conclusions of Individual Diversity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Social Contact Network Mirror Identity Concept Agent Population Epidemic
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS  and associated with  Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity Simulating SARS Assessing Public Health Policies Assessing Public Health Suites
Statistical Analyses for Simulating SARS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Singapore SARS Outbreak
Taipei SARS Outbreak (1)(2) (3) (4) (5) (1) 和平醫院事件 (2) 仁濟醫院事件 (3) 臺大醫院事件 (4) 關渡醫院事件 (5) 陽明醫院事件
Toronto SARS outbreak
Taking Body Temperature
Wearing Masks for General Public
Wearing Masks for Health Workers
Assessing Public Health Suites 3/24 實施防疫策略
Conclusion Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factor of Social Networks
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Factors of  Individual  Diversity  Epidemiological Factors Factor of Social Networks  Social Contact Network Mirror Identity Concept Agent Population Epidemic
Conclusions (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Simulating SARS Assessing Public Health Policies Constructing Public Health Suites
Q&A ,[object Object]

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Scott 校外口試

  • 1. 小世界流行病學建模與公共衛生政策評估 利用社會分身點概念與區域資訊 建構社會網路式流行病學電腦模擬 Small-World Epidemiological Modeling and Public Health Policy Assessment Using the Social Mirror Identities Concept and Local Information for Network-based Epidemic Simulations 交通大學 資訊工程所 博士學位校外口試 學生:黃崇源 指導老師:孫春在教授 2005.11.11
  • 2. Outline Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, SmallWorld Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of Individual Diversity Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
  • 3. Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of Individual Diversity Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
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  • 8. Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of Individual Diversity Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
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  • 15. Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of Individual Diversity Epidemiological Factors Factors of Social Networks
  • 16. CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS and associated with Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
  • 17.
  • 18. CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS and associated with Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
  • 19. Cellular Automata with Social Mirror Identity Model Epidemiological Factors Factors of Individual Diversity Factors of Social Networks Epidemic Disease Agent Population Mirror Identity Concept Social Contact Network
  • 20. Parameters of CASMIM Social Contact Network Mirror Identity Concept Agent Population Epidemic CASMIM
  • 21.
  • 22. Simulation Framework Epidemic Disease Data from WHO, CDC, and individual national health authorities Time points of imported cases and public health policies Interaction rules; population, network, and epidemic parameters Input Initialize Output CASMIM
  • 24. CASMIM Simulation System (cont.) CASMIM
  • 25. CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS and associated with Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
  • 26.
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  • 29. CASMIM Social Mirror Identity Concept Sensitivity Analysis of Social Contact Network Simulating SARS and associated with Public Health Policies Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Diversity
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  • 42. Taipei SARS Outbreak (1)(2) (3) (4) (5) (1) 和平醫院事件 (2) 仁濟醫院事件 (3) 臺大醫院事件 (4) 關渡醫院事件 (5) 陽明醫院事件
  • 45. Wearing Masks for General Public
  • 46. Wearing Masks for Health Workers
  • 47. Assessing Public Health Suites 3/24 實施防疫策略
  • 48. Conclusion Related Works SIR Models, Simple Networks, Small-World Networks, … CASMIM Epidemic Simulations Factors of Individual Diversity Epidemiological Factors Factor of Social Networks
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  • 51.