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Delphi, Entropy and TOPSIS Analysis of Political, Economic and Cultural Characteristics that Affect Textile and Apparel Industry
1. WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION
Journal of Engineering Management Research
MAY 2013 VOL.1, No,3
Delphi, Entropy and TOPSIS Analysis of Political, Economic
and Cultural Characteristics that Affect Textile and
Apparel Industry.
Akyene Tetteh
School of Management Science and Engineering,
1882 Yan’an Road West, 200051 P.R. China, Donghua University,
Accepted 8 May 2013
Abstract
Textiles and apparel industry sprung up industrialization but political system, economic system
and cultural environment characteristics may affect its survival positively or negatively. This paper
uses Delphi Method for forecasting in a different fashion to analyze some characteristics of political
system, economic system and cultural environment to ascertain how they affect the textiles and
apparel industry. The Delphi method exercise in this paper consists of 3 steps and 2 questionnaires
format coupled with analysis and consensus. The paper further employed two multiple criteria
decision making methods Entropy and TOPSIS to analyze the Delphi result. It was realized that
political system dummy is economic system but not cultural environment. The textiles and apparel
industry suffers negatively/positively if government disarray/array the political system which intend
affect the economic system negatively/positively but does not affect the cultural environment. The
textiles and apparel industry can fuse their cultural practice into their company strategy for efficient
and effective productivity.
Keywords: Delphi Method, Entropy, TOPSIS, Textile and Apparel, Political, Economic and Cultural
Characteristics.
1. Introduction
Textiles and apparel industry sprung up industrialization, which can be traced back to 1733 when
John Kay made a shuttle that speed back and forth on wheels. His invention led to another invention in
which we now have heavy machines which can cut and sew apparel in some modern factories today.
Most nations derive foreign exchange from exporting textiles and apparel to other countries which
boost their GDP growth. United States imports of textiles and apparel in 2010 totaled to $93.3 billion
with China being number one exporter (Kim 2011).The textile and apparel industry growth can be
hindered/promoted by political benefits (peace, good governments laws, good education system,
effective and efficient economy, etc.), economic benefits (good land turner system, labor, good access
to capital, low inflation, good exchange rate, etc.) and cultural environment (belief system, language,
dressing, food, dance, etc.). This paper seeks to find which of these three conditions hinders/promotes
growth of textiles and apparel industry using Delphi Method. The Delphi method is essentially defined
as “a method for measuring consensus among group of experts”. The method is used to analyze the
characteristics of each condition (Political, Economic and Cultural (PEC)) in no order of priority. The
paper further employed two multiple criteria decision making methods (Entropy and TOPSIS) to
analyze the Delphi result. The paper found that, political system dummy is economic system but not
cultural environment. The textiles and apparel industry suffers negatively/positively if government
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2. WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION
disarray/array the political system which intend affect the economic system negatively/positively but
does not affect the cultural environment. The textiles and apparel industry can fuse their cultural
practice into their company strategy for efficient and effective productivity. The rest of the paper is
organized as follows; section 2 covers Delphi method, questionnaires and Delphi method steps whiles
section 3 describes the methodology. Section 4 touches on results discussion and finally section 5
conclude with conclusion and limitations.
2. Delphi Method
The Delphi method was developed at Rand Corporation by Olaf Helmer, the Delphi method is
based on expert opinion 24. This was necessary because the existing methods of forecasting were
insufficient to generate the report wanted because historical data for this subject were unavailable. In
such cases, when a reliable forecast must be issued by qualitative means, the Delphi Method is
generally preferred. The Delphi method is a structured technique used to generate forecasting in
business, technology, science, education, health and other fields. The traditional Delphi Method aims
to identify a consensus from the experts, on the research problem under consideration. Delphi Method
is essentially defined 25 as “a method for measuring consensus among group of experts”. The method
is a long-range forecasting method of aggregating the forecast of experts on multidisciplinary issues, it
is an interactive process for soliciting and collating opinions on a particular topic, through a set of
carefully designed sequential questionnaires with a summarized feedback of opinions derived from
earlier responses 26.
The Delphi methodology has it strength and weakness. Some of its strengths are: can produce
agreements when other methods may not be possible, time for reflection, improving the strength of
opinion, learning and motivating experience for participants, and participants have an equal say whiles
its weakness are: can be extremely time consuming for participants, ambiguity regarding panel size
and consensus levels required, fatigue tendency and care needed to avoid facilitator bias. This paper is
the first paper to use Delphi Method of forecasting in a different fashion to analyze the characteristics
of government, economic and cultural environment affecting textile and apparel industries.
2.1 Questionnaires
The questionnaires were coin from the characteristics of political systems, economics systems
and cultural environment that affect the textiles and apparel industry. These characteristics that affect
textiles and apparel industries were listed and analyzed one by one. The questionnaires come in three
(3) folds. The first questionnaire aimed at capturing more characteristics of PEC as per the one stated
in appendix 1. The second analyze each characteristics of PEC by grade: points 1 represent strong
disagreement whiles 7 points indicates a strong agreement (i.e. 1≡ 20% to 7≡ 95%). The entire
questionnaires are displayed in appendix 2a to 2c.
2.2 Delphi Method Application and Steps
The essence of the Delphi Method is to use the assessment of opinions and predictions made by a
number of experts; it is an interactive process used to collect and distil the judgment of experts using a
series of questionnaires in a number of stages 27. The Delphi Method comprises several steps involving
participants, who may or may not meet face to face. The Delphi research team (DRT) comprise of 7
PHD scholars, made of three males and four females: 7 where chosen in case of any dead heat. Each
classification political, economic and cultural environment was analyzed based on their characteristics
and reports were taken as per their characteristics table. The DRT grade each PEC characteristics on 1
to 7 points. The DRT took two weeks to deliberate on each classification characteristics affecting
textiles and apparel industry. After these deliberations all the analysis by each steps on PEC’s
characteristics affecting textile and apparel industry were arranged in a table form (shown in appendix
5, 6 and 7) for further analysis using entropy and TOPSIS. Delphi method steps for each PEC’s:
Step 1, (Individual Analysis): Each DRT member was giving questionnaire 1 (appendix 2) to compare
24
James A. & Mona J Fitzsimmons “Service Management Operations, Strategy and Information
Technology”, 2002.
25
Burns et al.
26
Tam et al., (2006)
27
Skulmoski et al. (2007)
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3. WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION
with those stated in the characteristics table in appendix 1. This was amide to extract more
characteristics of each PEC’s from the individual analyst. They proceeded to the second questionnaire
by awarding grade to each PEC’s and in step 1 each DRT member did independent analysis (not
meeting face to face).
Step 2 (Group Analysis): The 7 DRT members were divided into two groups (i.e. 3:4 per group).
Each group skips questionnaire 1 but all the additional characteristics raised by each individual analyst
were amalgamated into the updated PEC characteristics table shown in appendix 3. The groups
proceed with questionnaire 2 and award grades and to each updated PEC characteristics. Step 2 is far
different from step one since most of the grades were awarded by intense deliberation, debate and
consensus reaching.
Step 3 (DRT Analysis): This stage the 7 DRT members did the analysis of the each PEC
characteristics together. They also skip questionnaire 1 and deal attentively with questionnaire 2
grading the updated PEC characteristics. This step is time consuming and needs a lot of patient in
terms of deliberations and approving each grade. In concluding their task they gather all the various
steps works and formed a PEC characteristics table (appendix 5, 6 and 7) by finding the mean average
of each PEC characteristics analyzed in each step.
3. Methodology
Multiple criteria decision making method (MCDM) is a decision making analysis method which
has being developed since 1970. A decision making problem is the process of finding the best option
from all feasible alternatives. A MCDM problem can be concisely expressed in a matrix format as:
Where A1, A2, A3… Am are possible alternatives among which decision makers have to choose, C1, C2,
C3… Cn are criteria with which alternatives performance are measured, Xij is the performance value
alternatives Ai with respect to criterion Cj and wj is the weight of criterion Cj. Two MCDM related
methods are discussed below.
3.1 Entropy
Entropy is a concept use to measure information that is the average amount of information (Ding
and Shi, 2005). In this paper we calculate the Delphi analysis index weight by using entropy. Entropy
method of weight calculation is highly reliable, free of decision makers’ biasness and can be easily
adopted (Zou et al. 2005). If a decision matrix B shown above with m alternatives and n indicators
entropy steps of weight calculation are as follows:
In matrix B, feature weight pij is of the ith alternatives to the jth factor,
The output entropy ej of the jth factor becomes,
Variation coefficient of the jth factor gj can be defined by the following equation,
Note that the larger gj is the higher the weight should be.
Calculate the weight of entropy wj,
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4. WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION
3.2 Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution Method (TOPSIS)
Hwang and Yoon (1981) developed the techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal
solution (TOPSIS) method to rank alternative over multiple criteria. TOPSIS finds the best
alternatives by minimizing the distance to the ideal solution and maximizing the distance to the nadir
or negative-ideal solution (Jahanshahloo et al 2006). Several researchers have used TOPSIS in
evaluating several MCDM (Tetteh 2012, Kou et al. 2011, Dai and Wang 2011, Uyun and Riadi 2011,
Shahanaghi and Yazdian 2008, Chen 2000) problems. TOPSIS six steps listed below:
Calculate the normalized decision matrix A. The normalized value aij is calculated as;
Calculate the weighted normalized decision matrix,
Were wj is the weight of the ith criterion and
Calculate the ideal solution V+ and the negative ideal solution V-,
Calculate the separation measures, using the m-dimensional Euclidean distance,
Calculate the relative closeness to the ideal solution
Where
The larger Yi is, the closer the alternative is to the ideal solution.
The larger TOPSIS value, the better the alternative.
4. Results Discussion
4.1 Political System
Political system (democracy, communist, religious, etc.) in nations was not of great interest in
this research since this research was interested in the benefits political system provides for textile and
apparel industry to function effectively and efficiently. Individual analysis, group analysis and 7 DRT
members analysis were grouped together into a table format by finding their average of each political
characteristic (appendix 5) for entropy and TOPSIS analysis. Entropy analysis were used to obtained
the various weight for each analysis (ten in number) and the result were shown in appendix 5a.
TOPSIS followed entropy analysis to rank political characteristics and TOPSIS top five characteristics
are: effective economy, peace, good education system, fight against corruption and government laws
(appendix 5b). Thou TOPSIS analysis ranked peace number two top characteristics, the 7 DRT
members’ final conclusions were in every political system, what textiles and apparel industry valued
most is peace since without peace whatever production the industry creates cannot see the light of
profit.
4.2 Economic System
The same procedure used for political system were administered to economic system in terms of
how economic benefit affect textiles and apparel industry (entropy weight, appendix 6a) but an
interesting revelation cropped up: for any economic system to function effectively and efficiently it
depends on the political system of the day. The DRT realized that the political system puppet is
economic system. This revelation is proved in the TOPSIS analysis of political system characteristics
were effective economy were ranked number one. TOPSIS rank for economic characteristics are:
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5. WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION
inflation, information technology, purchasing power of money, capital and exchange rate (appendix
6b).
4.3 Cultural Environment
Under cultural environment the panel proceeded with the same analysis as per that of political
system and economic system. The DRT members realized that cultural environment cannot be
influenced by any political system or economic system. Entropy weight analysis is shown in appendix
7a and TOPSIS top five rank characteristics that affect textiles and apparel industry are; language,
attitude, food, belief system, color perception and religion (appendix 7b).
Conclusion and Limitations
This paper has utilized Delphi method of forecasting in another fashion to analyzed political
system, economic system and cultural environment that affect textile and apparel industry. After
Delphi analysis we used two MCDM entropy and TOPSIS to further analyze each PEC’s
characteristics after all the Delphi steps were arranged in a table format. From our analysis we can
conclude that in any country, political party in power controls the economic and political system. If
the government manipulates the political and economic system in any conventional/unconventional
fashion it affects textiles and apparel industry in a positive/negative way. Textiles and apparel industry
should fuse their cultural system into their organization structure since political and economic systems
cannot manipulate its effective usage in their organization system. The limitations of this paper are:
(i) small DRT member size, (ii), consensus difficulty and (iii) time frame for DRT members’
discussion on each issue were not enough.
References
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Uyun, S., Riadi, I. (2011), A Fuzzy Topsis Multiple-Attribute Decision Making for Scholarship Selection,
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Acknowledgement
I wish to thank the entire PhD colleagues for participating in this analysis. My regards also goes to two
anonymous reviewers for their constructive and helpful comments.
Appendix
Appendix 1, Characteristics of PEC Affecting Textile and Apparel Industry
Political System
Economic System
Cultural Environment
Peace
Land
Belief System
Government Laws
Labor
Language
Basic needs Provision (Water, Capital
Attitudes
Electricity, fuel and other)
Good Education System
Inflation
Religion
Effective Economy
Exchange Rate
Food
High Efficiency and Promptly Entrepreneurship
Music
Effective Reaction to Emergency
Situations
Fight Against Corruption
Roads, Railways, Aviation
Dance
Right to Vote
Ports and Harbor
Ornaments
Right of Association
Information, Technology
Appendix 2a: Questionnaires to capture more PEC’s Characteristics
Questions
1. Do you agree that all the characteristics listed in appendix 1 affect PEC’s?
2. If No, list other characteristics that affect PEC.
Appendix 2b: PEC’s Characteristics Affecting Textile and Apparel Industry
Questions
1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2
Yes
GRADES
3
4
5
No
6
7
How do you value peace in a Nations?
How do you value peace in textile and apparel production?
How does peace in a Nation affect textile and apparel industry?
How does peace affect the profit of textile and apparel industry?
How does peace propel the Textile and apparel industry?
Note: 1. Strong Disagreement; 2. Disagreement; 3. Disagree Somewhere; 4. Uncertain; 5. Agree Somewhere; 6. Agree;
and 7. Strong Agreement
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7. WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION
Appendix 3: Updated PEC’s Characteristics Affecting Textile and Apparel Industry
Political System
Economic System
Cultural Environment
Peace
Land
Belief System
Government Laws
Labor
Language
Basic needs Provision (Water, Capital
Attitudes
Electricity, fuel and other)
Good Education System
Inflation
Religion
Effective Economy
Exchange Rate
Food
High Efficiency and Promptly Entrepreneurship
Music
Effective Reaction to Emergency
Situations
Fight Against Corruption
Roads, Railways, Aviation
Dance
Right to Vote
Ports and Harbor
Ornaments
Right of Association
Information, Technology
Color Perception
Tax system
Interest rate
Factory Incentives
Import / Export duties
Purchasing Power of Money
Appendix 4:
Delphi Method Steps
Delphi Research Team (7 PHD Scholars)
Expert 1
Expert 2
Expert 3
FIRST
ROUND
FIRST
ROUND
FIRST
ROUND
Expert 4
FIRST
ROUND
Expert 5
Expert 6
Expert 7
FIRST
ROUND
FIRST
FIRST
ANSWERS FIRST ROUND QUSTIONS
SECOND
ROUND
SECOND
ROUND
SECOND
ROUND
SECOND
ROUND
SECOND
ROUND
SECOND
ROUND
SECOND
ROUND
ANSWERS SECOND ROUND QUSTIONS
THIRD
ROUND
THIRD
ROUND
THIRD
ROUND
THIRD
ROUND
THIRD
ROUND
ANSWERS THIRD ROUND QUSTIONS
76
THIRD
ROUND
THIRD
ROUND
8. WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION
Appendix 5: Political Characteristics Table.
PhD 1
PhD 2
PhD 3
PhD 4
PhD 5
PhD 6
PhD 7
Group 1
Group 2
DRT
Good Education System
-0.20046
-0.19512
-0.21436
-0.20523
-0.21296
-0.21894
-0.21203
-0.24702
-0.20430
-0.20627
Government Laws
-0.22291
-0.24203
-0.20398
-0.20755
-0.20763
-0.21778
-0.22437
-0.21358
-0.21968
-0.21301
Effective Economy
-0.22319
-0.22115
-0.21646
-0.23061
-0.21239
-0.21217
-0.20399
-0.23117
-0.20220
-0.20836
Peace
-0.22449
-0.23139
-0.19641
-0.21059
-0.20787
-0.20744
-0.21371
-0.23431
-0.20940
-0.22046
Factory Incentive
-0.19788
-0.22854
-0.19922
-0.20882
-0.20245
-0.20957
-0.21912
-0.22361
-0.21943
-0.21094
High Efficiency and Prompt Action
-0.22344
-0.21133
-0.22473
-0.22868
-0.22230
-0.22464
-0.21912
-0.20903
-0.22460
-0.22071
Fight Against Corruption
-0.22838
-0.21359
-0.23394
-0.20755
-0.20613
-0.20982
-0.24218
-0.20903
-0.23260
-0.23089
Right to Vote
-0.22037
-0.21359
-0.22691
-0.23166
-0.23042
-0.22987
-0.21374
-0.20602
-0.22204
-0.21579
Right of Association
-0.21000
-0.21861
-0.21898
-0.22327
-0.23071
-0.20772
-0.21943
-0.20602
-0.21461
-0.22071
Tax System
-0.21755
-0.21109
-0.22124
-0.22091
-0.23016
-0.22727
-0.21646
-0.20602
-0.22460
-0.22834
Basic Needs Provision
-0.22627
-0.20672
-0.23672
-0.22014
-0.23120
-0.23038
-0.21097
-0.20602
-0.22204
-0.22071
Ej
0.99877
0.99803
0.99794
0.99880
0.99846
0.99904
0.99884
0.99748
0.99900
0.99928
dj
0.00123
0.00197
0.00206
0.00120
0.00154
0.00096
0.00116
0.00252
0.00100
0.00072
wj
0.08577
0.13713
0.14343
0.08366
0.10699
0.06687
0.08075
0.17564
0.06967
0.05010
Appendix 5a: Political Characteristics data after Normalization, Entropy value and variation coefficient.
PhD 1
PhD 2
PhD 3
PhD 4
PhD 5
PhD 6
PhD 7
Group 1
Group 2
DRT
Good Education System
4.46421
4.32995
4.86180
4.28347
4.57403
4.61405
4.49267
5.55087
4.27491
4.22012
Government Laws
5.34167
6.26880
4.47276
4.36483
4.38284
4.57214
4.95073
4.29202
4.83334
4.45475
Effective Economy
5.35322
5.34167
4.94317
5.23184
4.55322
4.37339
4.21066
4.92326
4.20210
4.29202
Peace
5.40789
5.78208
4.20210
4.47276
4.39140
4.21066
4.55322
5.04254
4.45475
4.72451
Factory Incentive
4.36996
5.65711
4.30148
4.40941
4.20210
4.28347
4.75198
4.64404
4.82388
4.38194
High Efficiency and Prompt Action
5.36367
4.94317
5.27375
5.15446
4.92326
4.82388
4.75198
4.13876
5.02263
4.73396
Fight Against Corruption
5.57287
5.03309
5.66070
4.36483
4.32995
4.29202
5.67225
4.13876
5.34167
5.12201
Right to Vote
5.23661
5.03309
5.36367
5.27375
5.24229
5.02263
4.55412
4.03938
4.92326
4.55412
Right of Association
4.82388
5.23661
5.04254
4.94317
5.25384
4.22012
4.76333
4.03938
4.64404
4.73396
Tax System
5.12201
4.93371
5.13246
4.85325
5.23184
4.92326
4.65350
4.03938
5.02263
5.02263
Basic Needs Provision
5.48295
4.76333
5.78208
4.82388
5.27375
5.04254
4.45475
4.03938
4.92326
4.73396
Appendix 5b: Political Characteristics separation measure Si+, Si- , relative closeness Yi and ranking
Si+
SiYi
Ranking
Good Education System
0.02119
0.01909
0.92002
3
Government Laws
0.02092
0.01731
0.84469
5
Effective Economy
0.01684
0.01643
0.99182
1
Peace
0.01880
0.01759
0.95329
2
Factory Incentive
0.02134
0.01334
0.63851
9
High Efficiency and Prompt Action
0.02103
0.01451
0.70434
8
Fight Against Corruption
0.02123
0.01782
0.85724
4
Right to Vote
0.02171
0.01592
0.74925
7
Right of Association
0.02215
0.01364
0.62956
11
Tax System
0.02242
0.01390
0.63393
10
Basic Needs Provision
0.02263
0.01777
0.80331
6
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