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Countdown
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INTEGRATED
MENTAL MODELS AND
PROJECT LIFE CYCLE
Dr.Tsunemi Watanabe
Kochi University of Technology, Japan
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5
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4
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3
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integrated mental models
and project life cycle
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1. ?
2.
?
3. ?
1. Failure analysis
2. Stakeholder’s
mental models
analysis
1.
2. Integrated mental models with
project life cycle perspective
1.
2.
3.
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
17%
27%
43%
8%
5%
Water resources project condition
(Department of Water Resources: DWR, 2008)
/
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>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
•
•
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• Mental models)
•
•
(Project Life
Cycle)
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?
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•
•
•
http://www.visualthinkingmagic.com/mental-model
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>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
INTEGRATED MULTI-STAKEHOLDER MENTAL
MODELS AND PROJECT LIFE CYCLE
A B C
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INTEGRATED MULTI-STAKEHOLDER MENTAL
MODELS AND PROJECT LIFE CYCLE
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>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
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>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
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SEMI-STRUCTURED
INTERVIEW)
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




 

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-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
•
•
•
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PROJECT LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT
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•
•
•
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
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•
•
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•
•
•
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
•
•
•
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
•
•
•
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1.
2.
3.
4.
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I:
•
•
II:
•
•
•
MOU
III:
•
•
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STAGES IN
DEVELOPMENT
OF BENEFICIARY
CONTRIBUTION
SCHEME
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CROSS IMPACT BALANCE (CIB) ANALYSIS FOR
PROPOSED SCHEME
 Qualitative but systematic form of systems analysis
 Based on expert judgments of interactions of system elements
 Balance algorithm to determine consistent network
configurations
 Applied as qualitative scenario technique in various fields
 Analysis via ScenarioWizardBasic
(Weimer-Jehle 2006)
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DESCRIPTORS IN CIB
A. Financial B. Public
participation
C. Local
poverty
D. Policy and
regulation
E. Corruption F. Stakeholder
relationship
G. Political
interference
H. Project
management
I. Economic
tools
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DESCRIPTORS AND STATES
A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 D1 D2 E1 E2 E3 F1 F2 F3 G1 G2 G3 H1 H2 I1 I2 I3
A.Financial
A1 Uncertaintyin budget -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 0 -2 0 1 3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3
A2 Budget line commitment 2 2 2 0 2 2 1 3 0 0 0 -2 2 3 3 1 0 1 2 1 2 3
B.Public paricipation
B1 Inform- Lowest 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -3 1 3 2 0 -2 -2 2 3 -3 -3 -3 3 -2
B2 Involve-Moderate 0 1 0 1 1 -1 1 1 0 -1 0 3 1 2 -2 -3 3 3 1 0 1
B3 Collaborate and empower-Highest 1 3 0 3 2 -2 3 3 -2 -3 -2 3 3 3 -3 -3 3 3 3 -1 3
C.Local poverty
C1 income not increase and lower than average 0 0 3 -2 -3 0 -3 -1 1 3 1 1 1 -2 2 3 -2 2 -3 3 -3
C2 Income increase but lower than average 0 0 -1 2 3 -1 2 -1 2 -1 0 1 1 -1 2 2 -1 1 0 3 1
C3 Income increase to higher than average 0 0 -3 3 3 -2 3 -1 -2 -1 -1 1 1 2 -1 -2 0 3 0 3 2
D.Policyand regulation
D1 Command and control 1 0 3 1 -2 0 0 0 -3 2 2 3 2 -3 -2 2 2 2 -2 -3 2 -3
D2 Collaborative decision making 0 0 -1 1 2 0 0 0 3 -3 -3 -3 2 3 2 -2 -2 -2 2 1 2 2
E.Corruption
E1 None 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 0 0 1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0
E2 Moderate 1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 2 -1 2 -2 0 1 -2 -2 0 0 0
E3 Strong 2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 2 -2 2 -3 1 0 -3 -3 0 0 0
F.Stakeholder relationship
F1 Conflict 0 0 2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 -2 -3 -3 2 -3
F2 Consult 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 1 2 1 1 1
F3 Collaborate and Engage 0 2 -1 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 -2 -2 2 -2 -2 2 3 2 1 2
G.Political interference
G1 None 0 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
G2 Moderate 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0
G3 Strong 2 -2 2 -1 -1 2 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 1 2 2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0
H.Project management
H1 Business as usual 0 0 0 2 -2 1 -1 0 2 -2 0 1 1 1 1 -1 -2 1 1 -1 2 -1
H2 Life cycle management -1 1 -2 0 1 -1 1 1 -2 2 1 -1 -2 -1 1 2 1 -1 -1 1 1 1
I.Economic tools
I1 Charge for use 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0
I2 National and local govenrment grants 1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 0 1 2 2 1
I3 Beneficiarycontribution and government grants 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 -1 2 1 -1 -1 -1 1 2 1 -1 -1 -1 1
G.Pol interfere H.Proj mngt I.EconomicA.Finance B.Paricipation C.Poverty D.Policy E.Corruption F.SHrelationship
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
CONSISTENCY SCENARIO
Scenario No. 1 Current Scheme
A.Financial: A1 Uncertainty in budget
B.Public participation: B1 Inform- Lowest
C.Local poverty: C1 income not increase and lower than average
D.Policy and regulation: D1 Command and control
E.Corruption: E3 Strong
F.Stakeholder relationship: F1 Conflict
G.Political interference: G3 Strong
H.Project management: H1 Business as usual
I.Economic tools: I2 National and local government grants
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
CONSISTENCY SCENARIO
Scenario No. 2 Beneficiary Contribution
A.Financial: A2 Budget line commitment
B.Public participation: B3 Collaborate and empower-Highest
C.Local poverty: C2 Income increase but lower than average
D.Policy and regulation: D2 Collaborative decision making
E.Corruption: E1 None
F.Stakeholder relationship: F3 Collaborate and Engage
G.Political interference: G1 None
H.Project management: H2 Life cycle management
I. Economic tools: I3 Beneficiary contribution and government grants
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
ありがとうございます
E-MAIL: P.URAIWONG@GMAIL.COM
>> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
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การวิเคราะห์โครงการแหล่งน้ำขนาดเล็กโดยวิธี integrated mental model and project life cycle approach

  • 1. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 5 Filmstrip Countdown
  • 2. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> INTEGRATED MENTAL MODELS AND PROJECT LIFE CYCLE Dr.Tsunemi Watanabe Kochi University of Technology, Japan
  • 3. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 5
  • 4. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 4
  • 5. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 3
  • 6. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 7. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 8. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> integrated mental models and project life cycle
  • 9. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 1. ? 2. ? 3. ? 1. Failure analysis 2. Stakeholder’s mental models analysis 1. 2. Integrated mental models with project life cycle perspective 1. 2. 3.
  • 10. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 17% 27% 43% 8% 5% Water resources project condition (Department of Water Resources: DWR, 2008) /
  • 11. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 12. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • •
  • 13. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • Mental models) • • (Project Life Cycle)
  • 14. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> ?
  • 15. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • • • http://www.visualthinkingmagic.com/mental-model
  • 16. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 17. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> INTEGRATED MULTI-STAKEHOLDER MENTAL MODELS AND PROJECT LIFE CYCLE A B C
  • 18. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> INTEGRATED MULTI-STAKEHOLDER MENTAL MODELS AND PROJECT LIFE CYCLE
  • 19. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 20. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 21. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 22. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 23. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW)
  • 24. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 25. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 26. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 27. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>        
  • 28. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 29. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> - - - - - - - - - - -
  • 30. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 31. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • • •
  • 32. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> PROJECT LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT
  • 33. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • • •
  • 34. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 
  • 35. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • •
  • 36. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • • •
  • 37. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • • •
  • 38. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  • 39. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> • • •
  • 40. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> 1. 2. 3. 4.
  • 41. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> I: • • II: • • • MOU III: • •
  • 42. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> STAGES IN DEVELOPMENT OF BENEFICIARY CONTRIBUTION SCHEME
  • 43. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> CROSS IMPACT BALANCE (CIB) ANALYSIS FOR PROPOSED SCHEME  Qualitative but systematic form of systems analysis  Based on expert judgments of interactions of system elements  Balance algorithm to determine consistent network configurations  Applied as qualitative scenario technique in various fields  Analysis via ScenarioWizardBasic (Weimer-Jehle 2006)
  • 44. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> DESCRIPTORS IN CIB A. Financial B. Public participation C. Local poverty D. Policy and regulation E. Corruption F. Stakeholder relationship G. Political interference H. Project management I. Economic tools
  • 45. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> DESCRIPTORS AND STATES A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 D1 D2 E1 E2 E3 F1 F2 F3 G1 G2 G3 H1 H2 I1 I2 I3 A.Financial A1 Uncertaintyin budget -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 0 -2 0 1 3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 A2 Budget line commitment 2 2 2 0 2 2 1 3 0 0 0 -2 2 3 3 1 0 1 2 1 2 3 B.Public paricipation B1 Inform- Lowest 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -3 1 3 2 0 -2 -2 2 3 -3 -3 -3 3 -2 B2 Involve-Moderate 0 1 0 1 1 -1 1 1 0 -1 0 3 1 2 -2 -3 3 3 1 0 1 B3 Collaborate and empower-Highest 1 3 0 3 2 -2 3 3 -2 -3 -2 3 3 3 -3 -3 3 3 3 -1 3 C.Local poverty C1 income not increase and lower than average 0 0 3 -2 -3 0 -3 -1 1 3 1 1 1 -2 2 3 -2 2 -3 3 -3 C2 Income increase but lower than average 0 0 -1 2 3 -1 2 -1 2 -1 0 1 1 -1 2 2 -1 1 0 3 1 C3 Income increase to higher than average 0 0 -3 3 3 -2 3 -1 -2 -1 -1 1 1 2 -1 -2 0 3 0 3 2 D.Policyand regulation D1 Command and control 1 0 3 1 -2 0 0 0 -3 2 2 3 2 -3 -2 2 2 2 -2 -3 2 -3 D2 Collaborative decision making 0 0 -1 1 2 0 0 0 3 -3 -3 -3 2 3 2 -2 -2 -2 2 1 2 2 E.Corruption E1 None 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 0 0 1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 E2 Moderate 1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 2 -1 2 -2 0 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 E3 Strong 2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 2 -2 2 -3 1 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 F.Stakeholder relationship F1 Conflict 0 0 2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 -2 -3 -3 2 -3 F2 Consult 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 1 2 1 1 1 F3 Collaborate and Engage 0 2 -1 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 -2 -2 2 -2 -2 2 3 2 1 2 G.Political interference G1 None 0 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 G2 Moderate 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 G3 Strong 2 -2 2 -1 -1 2 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 1 2 2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 H.Project management H1 Business as usual 0 0 0 2 -2 1 -1 0 2 -2 0 1 1 1 1 -1 -2 1 1 -1 2 -1 H2 Life cycle management -1 1 -2 0 1 -1 1 1 -2 2 1 -1 -2 -1 1 2 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 I.Economic tools I1 Charge for use 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 I2 National and local govenrment grants 1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 0 1 2 2 1 I3 Beneficiarycontribution and government grants 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 -1 2 1 -1 -1 -1 1 2 1 -1 -1 -1 1 G.Pol interfere H.Proj mngt I.EconomicA.Finance B.Paricipation C.Poverty D.Policy E.Corruption F.SHrelationship
  • 46. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> CONSISTENCY SCENARIO Scenario No. 1 Current Scheme A.Financial: A1 Uncertainty in budget B.Public participation: B1 Inform- Lowest C.Local poverty: C1 income not increase and lower than average D.Policy and regulation: D1 Command and control E.Corruption: E3 Strong F.Stakeholder relationship: F1 Conflict G.Political interference: G3 Strong H.Project management: H1 Business as usual I.Economic tools: I2 National and local government grants
  • 47. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> CONSISTENCY SCENARIO Scenario No. 2 Beneficiary Contribution A.Financial: A2 Budget line commitment B.Public participation: B3 Collaborate and empower-Highest C.Local poverty: C2 Income increase but lower than average D.Policy and regulation: D2 Collaborative decision making E.Corruption: E1 None F.Stakeholder relationship: F3 Collaborate and Engage G.Political interference: G1 None H.Project management: H2 Life cycle management I. Economic tools: I3 Beneficiary contribution and government grants
  • 48. >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >> ありがとうございます E-MAIL: P.URAIWONG@GMAIL.COM
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Notas del editor

  1. กระบวนการภายในสมองที่สร้างการอ้างอิงอย่างง่ายเพื่อตีความข้อมูลที่สมองรับรู้และแปรรูปเป็นรูปแบบของความรู้ที่ใช้งานง่าย เพื่อใช้เป็นพื้นฐานสำหรับการสร้างเหตุผล การตัดสินใจและการตอบสนอง ทั้งนี้เมนทัลโมเดลถูกสร้างขึ้นจากประสบการณ์ชีวิต การรับรู้และความเข้าใจโลกของแต่ละบุคคล
  2. In an attempt to solve the malfunction project problems, beneficiary contribution system is introduced.This approach is a combination of stakeholder management, responsibility sharing and technical matters. The basic principles of beneficiary contribution approach in this research are:
  3. Process flow in the proposed beneficiary contribution scheme is presenting. This proposed scheme may facilitate responsibility sharing and sense of ownership to related stakeholder and encourage multi-stakeholder management scheme to the government official which could eliminate malfunction of small-scaled water resources project in Thailand
  4. The purpose of this exercise is to examine the consistency of assumptions about the proposed beneficiary contribution approach as well as constructing consistent images of the network behavior.Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis is a systematic form of qualitative system analysis to generate consistence scenarios using a balance algorithm.A typical application of CIB is to analyze scenarios and determine consistent configuration of impact networks using a pair-interaction system approach based on the concept of mathematical systems theory
  5. Identify a list of the most relevant system factors (“descriptors”). The descriptors for this scenario analysis were extracted from relevant concepts emerged from multi-stakeholder mental models analysis. As a result from multi-stakeholder mental models associated with malfunction project analysis, the eight descriptors have been identified.Define a set of variants (qualitative alternative) which characterize the possible state of the descriptors.Asses the interactions of the impact of state x of descriptor X on the state y of descriptor Y based on appropriate investigation.Determine consistent scenarios. Consistent scenarios are determined via the influence balance of the impact network. The consistent scenarios are reported in “scenario report” generated by the ScenarioWizard software.
  6. Two scenarios were proved to be consistent meaning that scenarios that do not contain contradictions between both perspectives.Scenario 1 is current scheme and scenario 2 is beneficiary contribution scheme with specific conditions of descriptors.