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Civil and Environmental Research
ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013

www.iiste.org

Development of Tendering Duration Models for Federal
Government Building Projects in Nigeria
Stanley Chukwudi, Ugochukwu1 and Kevin Chuks, Okolie2
1 Lecturer Department of Quantity Surveying, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka
2 Senior Lecturer Department of Building Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka
*E-Mail: sc.ugochukwu@unizik.edu.ng; kc.okolie@unizik.edu.ng
Abstract
The Study sought to fundamentally generate information on the relationship between tendering duration and
project complexity/determinants of cost and duration in order to determine via a scientific model, realistic
tendering durations of various types of federal building projects in Nigeria. To achieve this, historical data on
project cost, project duration and tendering duration were obtained for 78 federal building projects. They were
subjected to correlation and regression analysis to test for statistical significance and the relationship between
tendering duration and cost variables. Results of the regression analysis revealed that there is a significant
relationship between tendering duration and project cost, which can be seen from the strong statistical
correlation; R square value = 0.53 and the P(significant) values of 0.00 < alpha value α (0.05)adopted in the
study. Furthermore, a significant relationship between tendering duration and project duration was revealed. The
statistical correlation was however observed to be higher; with R square value = 0.80 and P(sig) values < α
(0.05). Hence, the following models were developed which proved significant for the sampled projects based on
the quadratic regression equation: First, the tendering duration – project cost model which is in the form; TD =
2.574 + 1.137E-9C – 5.245E-20C2, where TD is the tendering duration in weeks and C, project cost. Second, the
tendering duration-project duration model expressed as TD = 1.299 + 0.073D + 0.000D2, where D is the project
duration in weeks. The study recommends that the Federal Government should formulate bidding deadlines for
different categories of building projects based on complexity factors of cost and duration, via adoption of the
models proposed by the study. This will promote standards, efficiency in project planning, achievement of
fairness and transparency in the public tendering system.
Key Words: Building Projects, Development, Federal Government, Models, Nigeria, Tendering Duration.
1.0 Introduction
The building industry has developed a number of standard practices which enhance functional efficiency
(Knowles, 1997). One of these practices is the tendering process, which is a preferred method used by the
industry to enable clients engage contractors for their works, provide information to them in a fair and equitable
way, give all those suitably qualified an opportunity to submit tenders, receive tenders from them in a
confidential way, evaluate the tenders and select the best value for money option.
Selecting a contractual relationship is therefore very important as it establishes a good working relationship
between contracting parties, which leads ultimately to a successful contract (Anonymous, 2001). Thus, the
efficiency and effectiveness of the tendering process is crucial to the achievement of the desired goals and
objectives of the construction project.
Tamimi (2009) posited that prior to the submission of completed tenders and subsequent selection of the most
successful tenderer, a period of time is usually allowed for, or given to tenderers by the client or his consultants
to prepare their estimates or proposals, and carry out all necessary activities that will enable them achieve it. This
space of time is referred to as the tendering period or duration and is defined to begin with the tender
advertisement and to end with the closing or submission date for tenders.
Clients and consultants are always known to be eager to obtain information on the contractor’s proposal
regarding the price and duration of the proposed projects. Lai (1979) observed that this anxiety to obtain bid
proposals within the shortest possible time was responsible for the establishment of tender return dates by
clients.
Clients would often desire a shorter tender period out of anxiety, but the contractor’s reliable tender will need to
follow from a series of actions such as measuring the scope of the services being sought, obtain prices from
suppliers and sub-contractors, visiting the site, assessing the tender and contract conditions, assessing capacity to
undertake the work, clarifying any inconsistencies or other queries, documenting the tender bid. These actions on
the part of the contractor require considerable time to accomplish (Neighbour, 2006).
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Civil and Environmental Research
ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013

www.iiste.org

Clients often see time spent ‘waiting for tenders’ as wasted time. They often forget that compiling a tender is
more than just filling in some paper work. Paynter (2009) also asserts that past recommendations in the industry
have it that at least 6 weeks should be allowed for the process to be done properly. Common practices however
usually allow fourteen days for minor works and a period of three weeks to three months for major or complex
projects. However, these time frames are often subjective, and influenced greatly by the client, with no realistic
or generally accepted basis for setting them.
Bina (2010) argues that tendering duration allowed for tenderers should depend on the type of tender, size/scale,
complexity and value of the project. However, in the Nigerian scenario, the reverse is the case. The public
procurement act (2007), section 25(ii) stipulates:
“in the case of goods and works valued under national competitive bidding, the invitation for bids shall be
advertised on the notice board of the procuring entity, any official websites of the procuring entity, at least two
national newspapers, and in the procurement journal not less than six weeks before the dead line for submission
of the bids for the goods and works”
From the stipulations, the Act neither specifies the tendering time appropriate for various cost categories of
projects, nor how such tendering time can be determined for such projects. Thus, the basis for the six weeks
stipulated is unclear, not founded on any scientific basis which gives clients or procuring entities the liberty of
stipulating whatever periods they deem appropriate without regards to project complexities as long as it falls
within the maximum stipulated time.
2.0 Aim and Objective of the Study
The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the tendering duration currently allowed for
federal building projects and their project complexity in terms of cost and duration. In this regard, the specific
objective of the study seeks to interpolate the project complexity factors in order to develop a predictive
mathematical model for predicting tendering duration for various cost categories of federal building projects.
3.0 Scope of the Nigerian Building Construction Industry and Its Public Tendering System
The Nigerian building industry has recorded some major achievements among which are the construction of
housing estates, public buildings, industrial complexes and institutional buildings (Jambol and Yusufu, 2004).
The building industry in Nigeria is dominated by the public sector to the extent that over 55% of building
projects are sponsored by Federal, State and Local governments (Izam, 2008).
In Nigeria, everything centers on the government. The government influences most activities of every sector of
the economy. The government does this through its institutions, policies and economic/regulating tools. For
instance, is the Bureau of Public Procurement an agency which strengthens the procurement process with respect
to physical infrastructure, institutional and human capacities to lay foundations for national development
(Bureau of Public Procurement, 2008).
The Federal Government of Nigeria thus established the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) to promote
standards, transparency and accountability in the procurement process. A legal tool which it uses to realize this is
the Public Procurement Act of 2007 which serves as a standard legal framework or guide to procuring entities
for efficient, effective and successful tendering for public projects in Nigeria.
The present Government also favours a contract tendering process that is open, competitive, fair and equitable to
all bidders and which seeks to strategically focus on minimizing waste and reduce incidence of failure of public
sector projects (Ayeni,1990).
According to Omole (1999), tendering time allowed for Nigerian contractors should be adequate enough to allow
firms tendering to obtain information from their domestic and specialist sub-contractors, visit site, which will
lead to a very competitive tender. He further suggests the following durations for various types of projects.
Table 1 Recommended Tendering Duration for various types of projects in Nigeria.
Project type
Residential Buildings
Complex Office Project
Factory projects
Heavy Engineering, Civil Engineering works
Source: (Omole, 1999)

Recommended Duration
3 -4 weeks
5 -8 weeks
4 -6 weeks
8 - 12 weeks

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Civil and Environmental Research
ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013

www.iiste.org

3.1 Overview of the Concept of Statistical Model
A statistical model is a formalization of relationships between variables in the form of mathematical equations. A
statistical model describes how one or more random variables are related to one or more other variables
(Statistical Model, n.d).
A model can also be referred to as a simplified mathematical description of a system or process. Statistical
models are used for future projections or to make forecasts by relying on objective historical or past data, which
it uses to determine a summary value (Izam, 2007). Projection models are typically used when data on several
years are available and the underlying relationships are measurable and relatively stable.
According to Markland, (1997), statistical projection models such as regression models, time series analysis are
effective for an intermediate range of one to three years. Statistical projections by use of models have also been
regarded as a critical necessity in every decision made by a manager and are crucial to the management process
of an organization. As identified earlier in this study, realistic tendering duration is an essential requirement of a
successful tender management and project success. Generally, the following models are available in curve
estimation procedure using the regression approach: Linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, power,
compound, s-curve, logistic, growth and exponential. The study seeks to develop a realistic tendering duration
model based on the regression analysis approach- considered to be one of the most powerful tools of prediction.
3.2 The Regression Based Model
Larsen (n.d) explains regression models as statistical models which describe the variation in one (or more)
variable(s) when one or more other variable(s). Regression models provide the scientist with a powerful tool,
allowing predictions about past, present, or future events to be made with information about past or present
events. The scientist employs these models either because it is less expensive in terms of time and/or money to
collect the information to make the predictions than to collect the information about the event itself, or, more
likely, because the event to be predicted will occur in some future time
Regression analysis is thus widely used for prediction and forecasting. Regression analysis is also used to
understand which among the independent variables are related to the dependent variable, and to explore the
forms of these relationships. In restricted circumstances, regression analysis can be used to infer causal
relationships between the independent and dependent variables. Typical Regression models involve the
following variables: the unknown parameters, denoted as β,The independent variables, X. The dependent
variable, Y. A regression model relates Y to a function of X and β (Statistical Model, n.d).
Once a regression model has been constructed, the goodness of fit of the model is confirmed and the statistical
significance of the estimated parameters. Commonly used checks of goodness of fit include the R-squared,
analyses of the pattern of residuals and hypothesis testing. Statistical significance can be checked by an F-test of
the overall fit. Regression model Prediction within the range of values in the dataset used for model-fitting is
known informally as interpolation.
Izam (2007) identified several virtues of the regression based models which are (i) Its simplicity of application.
48% of construction practitioners, from study findings are familiar with it (ii) minimal development cost
associated with its data gathering and storage. The variables project cost and project duration can be accurately
obtained for the projects (iii)a hypothesized relationship that exists between tendering duration and project
parameters such as cost and duration and (iv) Most building construction projects are medium range in nature
(less than three years duration)
4.0 Hypothesis
The following hypotheses were developed in order to promote the achievement of the purpose of the study.
H0: There is no significant relationship between the tendering duration and project cost for federal building
projects in Nigeria.
H1: There is a significant relationship between the tendering duration and project cost for federal building
projects in Nigeria.

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Civil and Environmental Research
ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013

www.iiste.org

H0: There is no significant relationship between the tendering duration and project duration for federal building
projects in Nigeria.
H1: There is a significant relationship between the tendering duration and project duration for federal building
projects in Nigeria.
5.0 Methodology of the Study
Data on tendering duration, project cost and project duration were sourced from historical project documents
such as contract agreements and final accounts for 78 building projects executed from 2007 to 2010, obtained
from the federal ministry of lands, housing and urban development and Federal Capital Development Authority
(FCDA).The federal tenders journal adverts for related projects were also studied. These data obtained were
analyzed afterwards using the relevant statistical methods of correlation and simple regression; thus testing the
hypotheses and promoting the achievement of the research purpose. Results obtained were represented in the
form of tables and graphs for pictorial elucidation.
6.0 Data Presentation
Table 2 shows the tendering durations, costs and project durations78 federal building projects executed between
2007 and 2010 that were sampled. These projects are of varying complexities ranging from housing, educational
to health projects.
Table 2 Costs and Durations of Sampled Projects Executed Between 2007– 2010.
S/N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Project type

Project Cost (N)

Project Duration
(Weeks)

Tendering Duration (Weeks)

Federal
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“

64,320,334.39
172,000,715.60
33,333,830.25
69,207,390.00
217,453,689.50
181,999,881.00
118,989,937.00
5,366,496.93
38,699,480.00
68,748,216.00
28,886,471.25
7,688,114.00
300,251,415.78
4,411,744,958.08
1,419,280,338.00
743,911,518.00
311,766,661.53
262,722,177.90
690,411,022.95
5,001,785,839.05
18,867,283,615.14
3,509,327,405.00
1,956,593,550.89
2,132,646,231.79
1,155,557,448.00
79,181,245.50
12,456,700.00
13,055,004.59
9,180,733,046.00
10,185,327.70

20
36
12
24
36
30
40
12
12
14
10
6
48
104
96
52
48
44
52
96
152
104
80
104
104
40
16
12
120
12

2
2
2
2
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
4
6
6
4
4
3
4
6
6
6
6
6
4
6
2
2
6
3

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ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78

“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“
“

www.iiste.org

230,415,967.00
87,340,180.91
12,509,775.30
23,355,209.00
32,545,435.00
45,578,342.50
604,415,386.26
450,250,065.00
600,014,085.50
11,578,959.81
22,952,729.01
32,003,067.60
924,701,193.16
6,412,799.26
15,013,386.61
27,010,596.90
29,971,950.75
177,185,277.85
21,600,744.90
28,390,960.90
20,908,900.00
604,488,209.96
4,960,000.00
556,545,433.50
23,163,327.73
12,825,598.52
413,508,774.33
9,530,393.57
9,622,389.45
12,571,113.00
35,256,090.72
20,091,007.00
3,936,600.00
8,748,000.00
12,150,000.00
6,739,200.00
6,998,400.00
3,664,926.81
7,290,000.00
10,223,181.72
9,204,545.16
51,501,670.50
10,564,180.96
25,391,431.72
40,525,247.23
5,284,320.00
17,209,357.15
24,302,550.75

40
24
12
16
24
24
52
48
52
12
12
12
72
6
8
12
12
40
16
24
12
52
6
52
12
8
48
12
10
10
14
10
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
12
16
24
10
12
10

3
3
3
3
2
2
6
4
6
2
2
2
6
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
4
2
6
2
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3

Source: Federal Ministry of Lands Housing and Urban Development, Federal Capital Development Authority.
7.0 Data Analysis
Data collected was analyzed using the statistical tools of correlation and regression.
When the value of one variable is related to another, they are said to be correlated. Thus correlation simply
means an inter-relationship or association (Lucey, 1999).Correlation can therefore be regarded as a form of
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ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
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statistical analysis or test used to measure the degree of relationship between two sets of data i.e. to find out the
relationship between two variables, one independent(X) and the other dependent (Y).For instance, the value of
‘X’ determines the value of ‘Y’. Although correlation is a less powerful technique than regression, the two are
closely related because correlation is a useful aid in interpreting regression.
The degree of relationship or correlation between two sets of variables is called the correlation coefficient (R). It
is an index designed to given an immediate picture of how closely two variables move together. The strength of
the relationship is measured on a scale that varies from +1 through-1The value of the correlation coefficient does
not however provide evidence of any underlying causal factors. The study adopted the Pearson Product Moment
correlation coefficient method, calculated by the formula:
R = n∑xy - ∑x∑y/√[n∑x2-(∑x)2 (n∑y2-(∑y)2]…………………………………….(1)
For the scores of the 2 variables to be highly correlated, the calculated value of R has to be ≥ critical value of R
given in the table.
Regression analysis adopted in the study is the procedure by which an algebraic equation/mathematical function
or model is formulated to estimate the value of the dependent variable given the value of the independent
variable (Naoum, 1998). A statistical tool attempts to discover the nature of the relationship by calculating an
equation that enables the value of one variable to be estimated when the value of the other is known. It is defined
as the science of estimating in functional form, the dependence of one variable upon another. It is thus used to
estimate the relationship between the dependent/response variable and the independent/explanatory variable.
For the study, the model relationship of variables found suitable of use is the quadratic regression, expressed by
the equation:
y = a + bx + bx2……………………………………………………………………(2)
The regression analysis yields the Coefficient of determination which calculates what proportion of the variation
in the actual values of ’y’ may be predicted by changes in the values of ‘x. It is the square of the correlation
coefficient, and is denoted by R2. It is a measure or proportion of the total variation (deviation) in Y (dependent
variable) explained by fitting the regression. Thus, to find out how good the line of best fit really is, R2 is
calculated. In other words, it calculates the accuracy of the regression line. Thus R2 would seem to give a more
meaningful interpretation the strength of the relation between y and x than would the correlation coefficient.
In testing for significance, the test tools for the regression experiment are the F and P (Probability) test. In the F
test, where the F value obtained or calculated is greater than F-tabulated, there is statistical significance and the
null hypothesis is rejected and vice versa. The study however adopted the P-test (probability test) which is also
used to check the ANOVA (analysis of variance) statistical significance. The P –ratio or P-value derived from
the analysis is compared with the alpha level (0.05). If the P-value is less than 0.05 level of significance, there is
a strong statistical correlation.
8.0 Results and Discussions
8.1 Tendering Duration vs. Project Cost interpolation
Table 3 shows the regression summary which was adopted in testing the first hypothesis: if a significant
relationship exists between tendering duration allowed and project cost for the sampled projects.

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Table 3 Regression analysis of Tendering Duration and Project cost.
a) Quadratic Model Summary
R

R Square

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

0.725

0.525

0.512

1.043

The independent variable is Project cost.

b) ANOVA
Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

F

Sig.

90.191
81.604
171.795

2
75
77

45.096
1.088

41.446

0.000

Regression
Residual
Total

c) Regression Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized
Coefficients
Std. Error
0.000

1.885

-5.245E-20

0.000

-1.452

2.574

0.129

Project
cost
Project
cost ** 2

0.000

Beta

1.137E-9

Sig.

19.907

B

t

(Constant)

From the result of the tabulated data analysis in the summary, it is deduced that there is a significant relationship
between tendering duration and project cost. This is because with reference to the R value (coefficient of
correlation) there is a strong positive correlation between the variables i.e. R= 0.73 or 73%. The degree of
determination R2 = 0.525 shows that 53% variation of the values in tendering duration could be explained or
accounted by variation or changes in the values of project cost.
Furthermore, the P values (Sig) = 0.00 as derived from the analysis is less than the alpha value of 0.05 (P< 0.05)
and thus shows statistical significance. This leads us to reject the null hypothesis (H0) and accept H1 thus, a
significant relationship between tendering duration and project cost. Table 4 below is the summary of the output
of the quadratic goodness of fit statistics between tendering duration and project cost.
Table 4: Tendering Duration- Project Cost. Model Summary and Parameter Estimates
Equation

Quadratic

Model summary
R
0.725

R square
0.525

F
41.446

df1
2

Parameter Estimates
df2
75
38

Sig
.000

Constant
2.574

b1
1.137E-9

b2
-5.245E-20
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The quadratic regression approach is considered worthy of use for this study. It is a process by which the
equation of a parabola of "best fit" is found for a set of data. The simplest method of fitting is the least-squares
regression. The Least Squares Regression model (function) for Quadratic Curve Fitting is very common and
gives a good approximation. It seeks to minimize the sum of the squares of the difference between the observed
values and the predicted values. It is expressed thus:
yi = a + b1xi + b2xi2…………………………………………………………………...(3)
Where: yi and xi are the dependent and independent variables respectively, a = value of constant, b1 and b2 are
the coefficients..
By substituting TD for y and C for x in equation 3, the quadratic regression model for this relationship is thus
given by:
TD = 2.574 + b1C + b2C2……………………………………………………………. (4)
Substituting for b1 and b2 from the table, which are coefficients describing how tendering duration performance
is affected or measured by cost, we have:
TD = 2.574 + 1.137E-9C – 5.245E-20C2……………………………………………...(5)
Where: TD is tendering duration for the project measured in weeks and C =Project cost
The purpose of a scatter diagram is to illustrate mathematically any relationship that may exist between the
dependent and independent variables. The graph in figure 1 is based on the plot of data on tendering duration and
project cost from the sampled projects. The regression curve depicts a quadratic function which has been defined
by equation 5.

Figure 1 Plot of Tendering Duration Allowed versus Project Cost.

8.2 Tendering Duration vs. Project Duration Interpolation

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Based on the hierarchy of hypothesized determinants, project duration is also a technical parameter used to
determine tendering duration. Table 5 below is the summary output of the regression analysis showing the
quadratic goodness of fit statistics between tendering duration and project duration.
Table 5 Regression analysis of Tendering Duration and Project Duration.
a) Quadratic Model Summary
R
0.893

R Square
0.798

Adjusted R Square
0.793

Std. Error of the Estimate
0.680

The independent variable is Project duration (weeks)

b) ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of Squares
137.133
34.662
171.795

df
2
75
77

Mean Square
68.566
0.462

F
148.359

Sig.
0.000

c) Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
B
0.073
0.000
1.299

Project duration
Project duration
** 2
(Constant)

Std. Error
0.008
0

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
1.564
-0.737

t

9.411
-4.437

0.000
0.000

8.506

0.153

Sig.

0.000

The results of the analysis in table 5, shows an R value of 0.893 or 89%, which indicates a very strong positive
relationship between tendering duration allowed and project duration . Also, the degree of determination R2 =
0.798 indicates that 80% of variation in tendering duration is influenced by variation in project duration. The Pvalue (Sig) = 0.00 is less than the alpha value of 0.05, which shows a statistical significance that leads us to
reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Thus, a significant relationship between
tendering duration allowed for contractors and the project duration.
Comparing the R values of both statistical analysis, tendering duration -project cost = 0.73, while tendering
duration-project duration= 0.89, it can be observed that though project cost factor is a significant, project
duration is a more significant factor in determining tendering duration as its contribution is obviously higher.
This observation may be due to the fact that construction costs in Nigeria which has been discovered to be
among the highest in the world has several extraneous factors going into its computations and influencing final
project costs.
Table 6: Tendering Duration- Project Duration Model Summary and Parameter Estimates
Equation
Quadratic

Model Summary
R
0.893

R
square
0.798

Parameter Estimates

F

df1

df2

Sig.

Constant

b1

b2

148.359

2

75

.000

1.299

.073

.000

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Table 6 reveals an admittedly large increase in R2 from Model 1(Tendering duration-project cost) to Model
2(Tendering duration -project duration), which indicates that the latter model fits the data somewhat better than
the former. Project duration is thus a stronger factor in determining tendering duration than project cost and thus
more reliable.
By substituting TD for y and D for x in equation 3, the quadratic regression model for this relationship is thus
given by:
TD = 1.299 + b1D + b2D2…………………………………………………… (6)
Substituting for b1 and b2 from the table, which are coefficients describing how tendering duration performance
is affected or measured by project duration, it gives:
TD = 1.299+ 0.073D + 0.00D2……………………………………………… (7)
Where: TD is tendering duration for the project measured in weeks and D, Project duration in weeks.
Figure 2 shows the plot of data on tendering duration and project duration from the sampled projects. The
regression curve depicts a quadratic function which has been defined by equation 7.

Figure 2 Plot of Tendering Duration versus Project Duration.
9.0 Conclusion and Recommendations
A critical study of the Nigerian Public Procurement Act revealed that there appears to be no common guideline
for determining duration for preparation and submission of tenders for contractors executing federal government
building projects in Nigeria. Section 25(ii) of the Act merely stipulated a minimum period of six weeks for this
activity. The implication of this stipulation is that, provided the benchmark of six weeks is not violated, any
length of time for tender submissions can be fixed irrespective of project complexity, scope or category. This
ugly scenario can be obviated by the application of more scientific criteria for example the tendering durationproject duration model (which was found to be a stronger relationship than the tendering duration-project cost
model) derived from the study. Several additional samples can be included in the experiment that could yield a
national model. Other project complexity factors such as floor area, volume, height/number of floors can be used
to derive complimentary models of tendering duration for public projects.
From the foregoing, it is recommended that public clients should formulate the various categories of building
projects based on complexity factors of cost and duration, thus adopting the models proposed by the study in
order to achieve standards, efficiency in project planning and transparency in the tendering system.

41
Civil and Environmental Research
ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013

www.iiste.org

References
Anonymous. (n.d).Tendering in construction: An introduction. Retrieved from

http://www.slideshare.net

Aqua group. (2006). Pre-contract practice for Architects and Quantity surveyors. Hert: Granada publishing
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Ayeni, O.J. (1990).Principles of tendering and estimating (2nd ed.).Lagos: Builders magazine limited.
Bina,

A.
(2010).Pre-bidding
planning:
http://www.construction2u.blogspot.com

The

construction

manager.

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from

Bureau of Public Procurement. (2008). “Procurement Procedure Manual for Public Procurement in Nigeria.
Retrieved November 2, 2011, from http://www.nigeriafirst.org/docs/bpp/Procurement_Manual.pdf

Izam, Y. D. (2007). Problems and prospects of project duration forecasting in the Nigerian building industry.
PhD Thesis, Department of Building, University of Jos.

Izam, Y.D. (2008).Duration estimation accuracy among construction firms in Nigeria: A comparative study of
foreign and local firms. Journal of environmental sciences, 1(2): 49 – 50.

Jambol, D.D. & Yusufu, M. I. (2004). An appraisal of the National construction policy goals on major
stakeholders in the construction industry. Nigerian Journal of Construction Technology and Management
5(1): 63-75.
Knowles, R.I. (1997).Tendering for public construction and related consultancy services. Victoria: Office
building and infrastructure development. Retrieved from http://www.building commission.com.au

of

Lai, P.F.(1979).Advocating a change in the present system of tender submission. The Quantity surveyor, 111(3):
431 – 432.
Larsen,P.V.(n.d).RegressionModels.Retrievedfromhttp://www.psychstat.missouristate.edu/introbo
ok/sbk16.htmRegression
Lucey, T. (1996).Quantitative Techniques (6th ed.). London: Continuum.
Markland, R.E. (1997). Topics in management science. Newyork: Willey.
Naoum, S.G. (1998). Dissertation research and writing for construction students. Oxford: ButterworthsHeinemann.
Neighbour, K. (2006). A guide to construction projects: Best practices for the procurement and delivery of
projects (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://aca.org.au
Omole, A.O. (1999).Framework for a code of procedure for open and competitive tendering. In N.I.Q.S (Eds.),
Open and competitive tendering in the procurement of public and private sector projects(pp 20 –
36),Lagos: Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors.
Paynter. (2009). Is 24hours long enough to tender? Retrieved from http://www.forumbuilding.co.uk/forums

Public Procurement Act. (2007). Official gazette of the Federal republic of Nigeria. Lagos: Federal Government
publications.

42
Civil and Environmental Research
ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013

www.iiste.org

Statistical
Models.(2013).
In
Wikipedia,
fromhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model

the

free

encyclopedia.

Tamimi, A. (2009). Tendering tips and traps. Retrieved from http://www.newsweavwe.ie/altamimi/e

43

Retrieved
This academic article was published by The International Institute for Science,
Technology and Education (IISTE). The IISTE is a pioneer in the Open Access
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More information about the publisher can be found in the IISTE’s homepage:
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Development of tendering duration models for federal government building projects in nigeria

  • 1. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org Development of Tendering Duration Models for Federal Government Building Projects in Nigeria Stanley Chukwudi, Ugochukwu1 and Kevin Chuks, Okolie2 1 Lecturer Department of Quantity Surveying, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka 2 Senior Lecturer Department of Building Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka *E-Mail: sc.ugochukwu@unizik.edu.ng; kc.okolie@unizik.edu.ng Abstract The Study sought to fundamentally generate information on the relationship between tendering duration and project complexity/determinants of cost and duration in order to determine via a scientific model, realistic tendering durations of various types of federal building projects in Nigeria. To achieve this, historical data on project cost, project duration and tendering duration were obtained for 78 federal building projects. They were subjected to correlation and regression analysis to test for statistical significance and the relationship between tendering duration and cost variables. Results of the regression analysis revealed that there is a significant relationship between tendering duration and project cost, which can be seen from the strong statistical correlation; R square value = 0.53 and the P(significant) values of 0.00 < alpha value α (0.05)adopted in the study. Furthermore, a significant relationship between tendering duration and project duration was revealed. The statistical correlation was however observed to be higher; with R square value = 0.80 and P(sig) values < α (0.05). Hence, the following models were developed which proved significant for the sampled projects based on the quadratic regression equation: First, the tendering duration – project cost model which is in the form; TD = 2.574 + 1.137E-9C – 5.245E-20C2, where TD is the tendering duration in weeks and C, project cost. Second, the tendering duration-project duration model expressed as TD = 1.299 + 0.073D + 0.000D2, where D is the project duration in weeks. The study recommends that the Federal Government should formulate bidding deadlines for different categories of building projects based on complexity factors of cost and duration, via adoption of the models proposed by the study. This will promote standards, efficiency in project planning, achievement of fairness and transparency in the public tendering system. Key Words: Building Projects, Development, Federal Government, Models, Nigeria, Tendering Duration. 1.0 Introduction The building industry has developed a number of standard practices which enhance functional efficiency (Knowles, 1997). One of these practices is the tendering process, which is a preferred method used by the industry to enable clients engage contractors for their works, provide information to them in a fair and equitable way, give all those suitably qualified an opportunity to submit tenders, receive tenders from them in a confidential way, evaluate the tenders and select the best value for money option. Selecting a contractual relationship is therefore very important as it establishes a good working relationship between contracting parties, which leads ultimately to a successful contract (Anonymous, 2001). Thus, the efficiency and effectiveness of the tendering process is crucial to the achievement of the desired goals and objectives of the construction project. Tamimi (2009) posited that prior to the submission of completed tenders and subsequent selection of the most successful tenderer, a period of time is usually allowed for, or given to tenderers by the client or his consultants to prepare their estimates or proposals, and carry out all necessary activities that will enable them achieve it. This space of time is referred to as the tendering period or duration and is defined to begin with the tender advertisement and to end with the closing or submission date for tenders. Clients and consultants are always known to be eager to obtain information on the contractor’s proposal regarding the price and duration of the proposed projects. Lai (1979) observed that this anxiety to obtain bid proposals within the shortest possible time was responsible for the establishment of tender return dates by clients. Clients would often desire a shorter tender period out of anxiety, but the contractor’s reliable tender will need to follow from a series of actions such as measuring the scope of the services being sought, obtain prices from suppliers and sub-contractors, visiting the site, assessing the tender and contract conditions, assessing capacity to undertake the work, clarifying any inconsistencies or other queries, documenting the tender bid. These actions on the part of the contractor require considerable time to accomplish (Neighbour, 2006). 32
  • 2. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org Clients often see time spent ‘waiting for tenders’ as wasted time. They often forget that compiling a tender is more than just filling in some paper work. Paynter (2009) also asserts that past recommendations in the industry have it that at least 6 weeks should be allowed for the process to be done properly. Common practices however usually allow fourteen days for minor works and a period of three weeks to three months for major or complex projects. However, these time frames are often subjective, and influenced greatly by the client, with no realistic or generally accepted basis for setting them. Bina (2010) argues that tendering duration allowed for tenderers should depend on the type of tender, size/scale, complexity and value of the project. However, in the Nigerian scenario, the reverse is the case. The public procurement act (2007), section 25(ii) stipulates: “in the case of goods and works valued under national competitive bidding, the invitation for bids shall be advertised on the notice board of the procuring entity, any official websites of the procuring entity, at least two national newspapers, and in the procurement journal not less than six weeks before the dead line for submission of the bids for the goods and works” From the stipulations, the Act neither specifies the tendering time appropriate for various cost categories of projects, nor how such tendering time can be determined for such projects. Thus, the basis for the six weeks stipulated is unclear, not founded on any scientific basis which gives clients or procuring entities the liberty of stipulating whatever periods they deem appropriate without regards to project complexities as long as it falls within the maximum stipulated time. 2.0 Aim and Objective of the Study The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the tendering duration currently allowed for federal building projects and their project complexity in terms of cost and duration. In this regard, the specific objective of the study seeks to interpolate the project complexity factors in order to develop a predictive mathematical model for predicting tendering duration for various cost categories of federal building projects. 3.0 Scope of the Nigerian Building Construction Industry and Its Public Tendering System The Nigerian building industry has recorded some major achievements among which are the construction of housing estates, public buildings, industrial complexes and institutional buildings (Jambol and Yusufu, 2004). The building industry in Nigeria is dominated by the public sector to the extent that over 55% of building projects are sponsored by Federal, State and Local governments (Izam, 2008). In Nigeria, everything centers on the government. The government influences most activities of every sector of the economy. The government does this through its institutions, policies and economic/regulating tools. For instance, is the Bureau of Public Procurement an agency which strengthens the procurement process with respect to physical infrastructure, institutional and human capacities to lay foundations for national development (Bureau of Public Procurement, 2008). The Federal Government of Nigeria thus established the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) to promote standards, transparency and accountability in the procurement process. A legal tool which it uses to realize this is the Public Procurement Act of 2007 which serves as a standard legal framework or guide to procuring entities for efficient, effective and successful tendering for public projects in Nigeria. The present Government also favours a contract tendering process that is open, competitive, fair and equitable to all bidders and which seeks to strategically focus on minimizing waste and reduce incidence of failure of public sector projects (Ayeni,1990). According to Omole (1999), tendering time allowed for Nigerian contractors should be adequate enough to allow firms tendering to obtain information from their domestic and specialist sub-contractors, visit site, which will lead to a very competitive tender. He further suggests the following durations for various types of projects. Table 1 Recommended Tendering Duration for various types of projects in Nigeria. Project type Residential Buildings Complex Office Project Factory projects Heavy Engineering, Civil Engineering works Source: (Omole, 1999) Recommended Duration 3 -4 weeks 5 -8 weeks 4 -6 weeks 8 - 12 weeks 33
  • 3. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org 3.1 Overview of the Concept of Statistical Model A statistical model is a formalization of relationships between variables in the form of mathematical equations. A statistical model describes how one or more random variables are related to one or more other variables (Statistical Model, n.d). A model can also be referred to as a simplified mathematical description of a system or process. Statistical models are used for future projections or to make forecasts by relying on objective historical or past data, which it uses to determine a summary value (Izam, 2007). Projection models are typically used when data on several years are available and the underlying relationships are measurable and relatively stable. According to Markland, (1997), statistical projection models such as regression models, time series analysis are effective for an intermediate range of one to three years. Statistical projections by use of models have also been regarded as a critical necessity in every decision made by a manager and are crucial to the management process of an organization. As identified earlier in this study, realistic tendering duration is an essential requirement of a successful tender management and project success. Generally, the following models are available in curve estimation procedure using the regression approach: Linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, power, compound, s-curve, logistic, growth and exponential. The study seeks to develop a realistic tendering duration model based on the regression analysis approach- considered to be one of the most powerful tools of prediction. 3.2 The Regression Based Model Larsen (n.d) explains regression models as statistical models which describe the variation in one (or more) variable(s) when one or more other variable(s). Regression models provide the scientist with a powerful tool, allowing predictions about past, present, or future events to be made with information about past or present events. The scientist employs these models either because it is less expensive in terms of time and/or money to collect the information to make the predictions than to collect the information about the event itself, or, more likely, because the event to be predicted will occur in some future time Regression analysis is thus widely used for prediction and forecasting. Regression analysis is also used to understand which among the independent variables are related to the dependent variable, and to explore the forms of these relationships. In restricted circumstances, regression analysis can be used to infer causal relationships between the independent and dependent variables. Typical Regression models involve the following variables: the unknown parameters, denoted as β,The independent variables, X. The dependent variable, Y. A regression model relates Y to a function of X and β (Statistical Model, n.d). Once a regression model has been constructed, the goodness of fit of the model is confirmed and the statistical significance of the estimated parameters. Commonly used checks of goodness of fit include the R-squared, analyses of the pattern of residuals and hypothesis testing. Statistical significance can be checked by an F-test of the overall fit. Regression model Prediction within the range of values in the dataset used for model-fitting is known informally as interpolation. Izam (2007) identified several virtues of the regression based models which are (i) Its simplicity of application. 48% of construction practitioners, from study findings are familiar with it (ii) minimal development cost associated with its data gathering and storage. The variables project cost and project duration can be accurately obtained for the projects (iii)a hypothesized relationship that exists between tendering duration and project parameters such as cost and duration and (iv) Most building construction projects are medium range in nature (less than three years duration) 4.0 Hypothesis The following hypotheses were developed in order to promote the achievement of the purpose of the study. H0: There is no significant relationship between the tendering duration and project cost for federal building projects in Nigeria. H1: There is a significant relationship between the tendering duration and project cost for federal building projects in Nigeria. 34
  • 4. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org H0: There is no significant relationship between the tendering duration and project duration for federal building projects in Nigeria. H1: There is a significant relationship between the tendering duration and project duration for federal building projects in Nigeria. 5.0 Methodology of the Study Data on tendering duration, project cost and project duration were sourced from historical project documents such as contract agreements and final accounts for 78 building projects executed from 2007 to 2010, obtained from the federal ministry of lands, housing and urban development and Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA).The federal tenders journal adverts for related projects were also studied. These data obtained were analyzed afterwards using the relevant statistical methods of correlation and simple regression; thus testing the hypotheses and promoting the achievement of the research purpose. Results obtained were represented in the form of tables and graphs for pictorial elucidation. 6.0 Data Presentation Table 2 shows the tendering durations, costs and project durations78 federal building projects executed between 2007 and 2010 that were sampled. These projects are of varying complexities ranging from housing, educational to health projects. Table 2 Costs and Durations of Sampled Projects Executed Between 2007– 2010. S/N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Project type Project Cost (N) Project Duration (Weeks) Tendering Duration (Weeks) Federal “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ 64,320,334.39 172,000,715.60 33,333,830.25 69,207,390.00 217,453,689.50 181,999,881.00 118,989,937.00 5,366,496.93 38,699,480.00 68,748,216.00 28,886,471.25 7,688,114.00 300,251,415.78 4,411,744,958.08 1,419,280,338.00 743,911,518.00 311,766,661.53 262,722,177.90 690,411,022.95 5,001,785,839.05 18,867,283,615.14 3,509,327,405.00 1,956,593,550.89 2,132,646,231.79 1,155,557,448.00 79,181,245.50 12,456,700.00 13,055,004.59 9,180,733,046.00 10,185,327.70 20 36 12 24 36 30 40 12 12 14 10 6 48 104 96 52 48 44 52 96 152 104 80 104 104 40 16 12 120 12 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 6 4 4 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 4 6 2 2 6 3 35
  • 5. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ www.iiste.org 230,415,967.00 87,340,180.91 12,509,775.30 23,355,209.00 32,545,435.00 45,578,342.50 604,415,386.26 450,250,065.00 600,014,085.50 11,578,959.81 22,952,729.01 32,003,067.60 924,701,193.16 6,412,799.26 15,013,386.61 27,010,596.90 29,971,950.75 177,185,277.85 21,600,744.90 28,390,960.90 20,908,900.00 604,488,209.96 4,960,000.00 556,545,433.50 23,163,327.73 12,825,598.52 413,508,774.33 9,530,393.57 9,622,389.45 12,571,113.00 35,256,090.72 20,091,007.00 3,936,600.00 8,748,000.00 12,150,000.00 6,739,200.00 6,998,400.00 3,664,926.81 7,290,000.00 10,223,181.72 9,204,545.16 51,501,670.50 10,564,180.96 25,391,431.72 40,525,247.23 5,284,320.00 17,209,357.15 24,302,550.75 40 24 12 16 24 24 52 48 52 12 12 12 72 6 8 12 12 40 16 24 12 52 6 52 12 8 48 12 10 10 14 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 24 12 16 24 10 12 10 3 3 3 3 2 2 6 4 6 2 2 2 6 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 Source: Federal Ministry of Lands Housing and Urban Development, Federal Capital Development Authority. 7.0 Data Analysis Data collected was analyzed using the statistical tools of correlation and regression. When the value of one variable is related to another, they are said to be correlated. Thus correlation simply means an inter-relationship or association (Lucey, 1999).Correlation can therefore be regarded as a form of 36
  • 6. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org statistical analysis or test used to measure the degree of relationship between two sets of data i.e. to find out the relationship between two variables, one independent(X) and the other dependent (Y).For instance, the value of ‘X’ determines the value of ‘Y’. Although correlation is a less powerful technique than regression, the two are closely related because correlation is a useful aid in interpreting regression. The degree of relationship or correlation between two sets of variables is called the correlation coefficient (R). It is an index designed to given an immediate picture of how closely two variables move together. The strength of the relationship is measured on a scale that varies from +1 through-1The value of the correlation coefficient does not however provide evidence of any underlying causal factors. The study adopted the Pearson Product Moment correlation coefficient method, calculated by the formula: R = n∑xy - ∑x∑y/√[n∑x2-(∑x)2 (n∑y2-(∑y)2]…………………………………….(1) For the scores of the 2 variables to be highly correlated, the calculated value of R has to be ≥ critical value of R given in the table. Regression analysis adopted in the study is the procedure by which an algebraic equation/mathematical function or model is formulated to estimate the value of the dependent variable given the value of the independent variable (Naoum, 1998). A statistical tool attempts to discover the nature of the relationship by calculating an equation that enables the value of one variable to be estimated when the value of the other is known. It is defined as the science of estimating in functional form, the dependence of one variable upon another. It is thus used to estimate the relationship between the dependent/response variable and the independent/explanatory variable. For the study, the model relationship of variables found suitable of use is the quadratic regression, expressed by the equation: y = a + bx + bx2……………………………………………………………………(2) The regression analysis yields the Coefficient of determination which calculates what proportion of the variation in the actual values of ’y’ may be predicted by changes in the values of ‘x. It is the square of the correlation coefficient, and is denoted by R2. It is a measure or proportion of the total variation (deviation) in Y (dependent variable) explained by fitting the regression. Thus, to find out how good the line of best fit really is, R2 is calculated. In other words, it calculates the accuracy of the regression line. Thus R2 would seem to give a more meaningful interpretation the strength of the relation between y and x than would the correlation coefficient. In testing for significance, the test tools for the regression experiment are the F and P (Probability) test. In the F test, where the F value obtained or calculated is greater than F-tabulated, there is statistical significance and the null hypothesis is rejected and vice versa. The study however adopted the P-test (probability test) which is also used to check the ANOVA (analysis of variance) statistical significance. The P –ratio or P-value derived from the analysis is compared with the alpha level (0.05). If the P-value is less than 0.05 level of significance, there is a strong statistical correlation. 8.0 Results and Discussions 8.1 Tendering Duration vs. Project Cost interpolation Table 3 shows the regression summary which was adopted in testing the first hypothesis: if a significant relationship exists between tendering duration allowed and project cost for the sampled projects. 37
  • 7. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org Table 3 Regression analysis of Tendering Duration and Project cost. a) Quadratic Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 0.725 0.525 0.512 1.043 The independent variable is Project cost. b) ANOVA Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 90.191 81.604 171.795 2 75 77 45.096 1.088 41.446 0.000 Regression Residual Total c) Regression Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients Std. Error 0.000 1.885 -5.245E-20 0.000 -1.452 2.574 0.129 Project cost Project cost ** 2 0.000 Beta 1.137E-9 Sig. 19.907 B t (Constant) From the result of the tabulated data analysis in the summary, it is deduced that there is a significant relationship between tendering duration and project cost. This is because with reference to the R value (coefficient of correlation) there is a strong positive correlation between the variables i.e. R= 0.73 or 73%. The degree of determination R2 = 0.525 shows that 53% variation of the values in tendering duration could be explained or accounted by variation or changes in the values of project cost. Furthermore, the P values (Sig) = 0.00 as derived from the analysis is less than the alpha value of 0.05 (P< 0.05) and thus shows statistical significance. This leads us to reject the null hypothesis (H0) and accept H1 thus, a significant relationship between tendering duration and project cost. Table 4 below is the summary of the output of the quadratic goodness of fit statistics between tendering duration and project cost. Table 4: Tendering Duration- Project Cost. Model Summary and Parameter Estimates Equation Quadratic Model summary R 0.725 R square 0.525 F 41.446 df1 2 Parameter Estimates df2 75 38 Sig .000 Constant 2.574 b1 1.137E-9 b2 -5.245E-20
  • 8. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org The quadratic regression approach is considered worthy of use for this study. It is a process by which the equation of a parabola of "best fit" is found for a set of data. The simplest method of fitting is the least-squares regression. The Least Squares Regression model (function) for Quadratic Curve Fitting is very common and gives a good approximation. It seeks to minimize the sum of the squares of the difference between the observed values and the predicted values. It is expressed thus: yi = a + b1xi + b2xi2…………………………………………………………………...(3) Where: yi and xi are the dependent and independent variables respectively, a = value of constant, b1 and b2 are the coefficients.. By substituting TD for y and C for x in equation 3, the quadratic regression model for this relationship is thus given by: TD = 2.574 + b1C + b2C2……………………………………………………………. (4) Substituting for b1 and b2 from the table, which are coefficients describing how tendering duration performance is affected or measured by cost, we have: TD = 2.574 + 1.137E-9C – 5.245E-20C2……………………………………………...(5) Where: TD is tendering duration for the project measured in weeks and C =Project cost The purpose of a scatter diagram is to illustrate mathematically any relationship that may exist between the dependent and independent variables. The graph in figure 1 is based on the plot of data on tendering duration and project cost from the sampled projects. The regression curve depicts a quadratic function which has been defined by equation 5. Figure 1 Plot of Tendering Duration Allowed versus Project Cost. 8.2 Tendering Duration vs. Project Duration Interpolation 39
  • 9. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org Based on the hierarchy of hypothesized determinants, project duration is also a technical parameter used to determine tendering duration. Table 5 below is the summary output of the regression analysis showing the quadratic goodness of fit statistics between tendering duration and project duration. Table 5 Regression analysis of Tendering Duration and Project Duration. a) Quadratic Model Summary R 0.893 R Square 0.798 Adjusted R Square 0.793 Std. Error of the Estimate 0.680 The independent variable is Project duration (weeks) b) ANOVA Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares 137.133 34.662 171.795 df 2 75 77 Mean Square 68.566 0.462 F 148.359 Sig. 0.000 c) Coefficients Unstandardized Coefficients B 0.073 0.000 1.299 Project duration Project duration ** 2 (Constant) Std. Error 0.008 0 Standardized Coefficients Beta 1.564 -0.737 t 9.411 -4.437 0.000 0.000 8.506 0.153 Sig. 0.000 The results of the analysis in table 5, shows an R value of 0.893 or 89%, which indicates a very strong positive relationship between tendering duration allowed and project duration . Also, the degree of determination R2 = 0.798 indicates that 80% of variation in tendering duration is influenced by variation in project duration. The Pvalue (Sig) = 0.00 is less than the alpha value of 0.05, which shows a statistical significance that leads us to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Thus, a significant relationship between tendering duration allowed for contractors and the project duration. Comparing the R values of both statistical analysis, tendering duration -project cost = 0.73, while tendering duration-project duration= 0.89, it can be observed that though project cost factor is a significant, project duration is a more significant factor in determining tendering duration as its contribution is obviously higher. This observation may be due to the fact that construction costs in Nigeria which has been discovered to be among the highest in the world has several extraneous factors going into its computations and influencing final project costs. Table 6: Tendering Duration- Project Duration Model Summary and Parameter Estimates Equation Quadratic Model Summary R 0.893 R square 0.798 Parameter Estimates F df1 df2 Sig. Constant b1 b2 148.359 2 75 .000 1.299 .073 .000 40
  • 10. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org Table 6 reveals an admittedly large increase in R2 from Model 1(Tendering duration-project cost) to Model 2(Tendering duration -project duration), which indicates that the latter model fits the data somewhat better than the former. Project duration is thus a stronger factor in determining tendering duration than project cost and thus more reliable. By substituting TD for y and D for x in equation 3, the quadratic regression model for this relationship is thus given by: TD = 1.299 + b1D + b2D2…………………………………………………… (6) Substituting for b1 and b2 from the table, which are coefficients describing how tendering duration performance is affected or measured by project duration, it gives: TD = 1.299+ 0.073D + 0.00D2……………………………………………… (7) Where: TD is tendering duration for the project measured in weeks and D, Project duration in weeks. Figure 2 shows the plot of data on tendering duration and project duration from the sampled projects. The regression curve depicts a quadratic function which has been defined by equation 7. Figure 2 Plot of Tendering Duration versus Project Duration. 9.0 Conclusion and Recommendations A critical study of the Nigerian Public Procurement Act revealed that there appears to be no common guideline for determining duration for preparation and submission of tenders for contractors executing federal government building projects in Nigeria. Section 25(ii) of the Act merely stipulated a minimum period of six weeks for this activity. The implication of this stipulation is that, provided the benchmark of six weeks is not violated, any length of time for tender submissions can be fixed irrespective of project complexity, scope or category. This ugly scenario can be obviated by the application of more scientific criteria for example the tendering durationproject duration model (which was found to be a stronger relationship than the tendering duration-project cost model) derived from the study. Several additional samples can be included in the experiment that could yield a national model. Other project complexity factors such as floor area, volume, height/number of floors can be used to derive complimentary models of tendering duration for public projects. From the foregoing, it is recommended that public clients should formulate the various categories of building projects based on complexity factors of cost and duration, thus adopting the models proposed by the study in order to achieve standards, efficiency in project planning and transparency in the tendering system. 41
  • 11. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org References Anonymous. (n.d).Tendering in construction: An introduction. Retrieved from http://www.slideshare.net Aqua group. (2006). Pre-contract practice for Architects and Quantity surveyors. Hert: Granada publishing limited. Ayeni, O.J. (1990).Principles of tendering and estimating (2nd ed.).Lagos: Builders magazine limited. Bina, A. (2010).Pre-bidding planning: http://www.construction2u.blogspot.com The construction manager. Retrieved from Bureau of Public Procurement. (2008). “Procurement Procedure Manual for Public Procurement in Nigeria. Retrieved November 2, 2011, from http://www.nigeriafirst.org/docs/bpp/Procurement_Manual.pdf Izam, Y. D. (2007). Problems and prospects of project duration forecasting in the Nigerian building industry. PhD Thesis, Department of Building, University of Jos. Izam, Y.D. (2008).Duration estimation accuracy among construction firms in Nigeria: A comparative study of foreign and local firms. Journal of environmental sciences, 1(2): 49 – 50. Jambol, D.D. & Yusufu, M. I. (2004). An appraisal of the National construction policy goals on major stakeholders in the construction industry. Nigerian Journal of Construction Technology and Management 5(1): 63-75. Knowles, R.I. (1997).Tendering for public construction and related consultancy services. Victoria: Office building and infrastructure development. Retrieved from http://www.building commission.com.au of Lai, P.F.(1979).Advocating a change in the present system of tender submission. The Quantity surveyor, 111(3): 431 – 432. Larsen,P.V.(n.d).RegressionModels.Retrievedfromhttp://www.psychstat.missouristate.edu/introbo ok/sbk16.htmRegression Lucey, T. (1996).Quantitative Techniques (6th ed.). London: Continuum. Markland, R.E. (1997). Topics in management science. Newyork: Willey. Naoum, S.G. (1998). Dissertation research and writing for construction students. Oxford: ButterworthsHeinemann. Neighbour, K. (2006). A guide to construction projects: Best practices for the procurement and delivery of projects (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://aca.org.au Omole, A.O. (1999).Framework for a code of procedure for open and competitive tendering. In N.I.Q.S (Eds.), Open and competitive tendering in the procurement of public and private sector projects(pp 20 – 36),Lagos: Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors. Paynter. (2009). Is 24hours long enough to tender? Retrieved from http://www.forumbuilding.co.uk/forums Public Procurement Act. (2007). Official gazette of the Federal republic of Nigeria. Lagos: Federal Government publications. 42
  • 12. Civil and Environmental Research ISSN 2224-5790 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0514 (Online) Vol.3, No.12, 2013 www.iiste.org Statistical Models.(2013). In Wikipedia, fromhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model the free encyclopedia. Tamimi, A. (2009). Tendering tips and traps. Retrieved from http://www.newsweavwe.ie/altamimi/e 43 Retrieved
  • 13. This academic article was published by The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE). The IISTE is a pioneer in the Open Access Publishing service based in the U.S. and Europe. The aim of the institute is Accelerating Global Knowledge Sharing. More information about the publisher can be found in the IISTE’s homepage: http://www.iiste.org CALL FOR JOURNAL PAPERS The IISTE is currently hosting more than 30 peer-reviewed academic journals and collaborating with academic institutions around the world. There’s no deadline for submission. Prospective authors of IISTE journals can find the submission instruction on the following page: http://www.iiste.org/journals/ The IISTE editorial team promises to the review and publish all the qualified submissions in a fast manner. All the journals articles are available online to the readers all over the world without financial, legal, or technical barriers other than those inseparable from gaining access to the internet itself. Printed version of the journals is also available upon request of readers and authors. MORE RESOURCES Book publication information: http://www.iiste.org/book/ Recent conferences: http://www.iiste.org/conference/ IISTE Knowledge Sharing Partners EBSCO, Index Copernicus, Ulrich's Periodicals Directory, JournalTOCS, PKP Open Archives Harvester, Bielefeld Academic Search Engine, Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek EZB, Open J-Gate, OCLC WorldCat, Universe Digtial Library , NewJour, Google Scholar