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SOCIAL DESIRABILITY EFFECTS
IN MARKET RESEARCH
EFFECTIVENESS
9.19.2016
MEET
THE TEAM
A BIT OF
CONTEXT
THE PREDICTIVE
VALUE OF
SOCIAL
CASE
STUDIES
CONCLUSIONS
AND NEXT
STEPS
MEET
THE TEAM
MEET THE TEAM
KELLEY STERNHAGEN
Director, Analytics W2O Group
SETH DUNCAN
Chief Analytics Officer, W2O Group
A BIT OF
CONTEXT
THE ALLURE OF DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of
the population, the
population is
represented on
social
of people in
developed markets
have active accounts
on their country’s most
popular social
platform (We Are
Social)
of Americans 65+
report using social
media on a regular
basis
Social media
provides insight into
younger audiences,
which have been
more difficult to
understand in the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of
the population, the
population is
represented on
social
of people in
developed markets
have active accounts
on their country’s most
popular social
platform (We Are
Social)
of Americans 65+
report using social
media on a regular
basis
Social media
provides insight into
younger audiences,
which have been
more difficult to
understand in the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of
the population, the
population is
represented on
social
of people in
developed markets
have active accounts
on their country’s most
popular social
platform (We Are
Social)
of Americans 65+
report using social
media on a regular
basis
Social media
provides insight into
younger audiences,
which have been
more difficult to
understand in the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of
the population, the
population is
represented on
social
of people in
developed markets
have active accounts
on their country’s most
popular social
platform (We Are
Social)
of Americans 65+
report using social
media on a regular
basis
Social media
provides insight into
younger audiences,
which have been
more difficult to
understand in the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of
the population, the
population is
represented on
social
of people in
developed markets
have active accounts
on their country’s most
popular social
platform (We Are
Social)
of Americans 65+
report using social
media on a regular
basis
Social media
provides insight into
younger audiences,
which have been
more difficult to
understand in the past
PEOPLE POST A RANGE OF POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EXPERIENCES ONLINE
SOCIAL MEASUREMENT CAN LACK ACTIONABILITY FOR MARKETERS
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE
CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE
90% LISTEN
AND LEARN
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE
CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE
90% LISTEN
AND LEARN
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE
CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE
90% LISTEN
AND LEARN
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE
CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE
90% LISTEN
AND LEARN
LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
THE PREDICTIVE
VALUE OF
SOCIAL
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
BOX OFFICE RECEIPTS
(Asur & Huberman, 2010;
Noseworthy, 2013; Panaligan
& Chen, 2013)
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
ELECTORAL OUTCOMES
(DiGrazia et. al., 2013; Maldonado
& Sierra, 2016; O’Connor et. al.,
2010; Tumasjan et. al., 2010)
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
INFLUENZA OUTBREAKS
(Ginsberg & Mohebbi, 2009)
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
ECONOMIC INDICES
(Choi & Varian, 2012)
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
Young & McCoy, 2015
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011
Young & McCoy, 2015
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011
Reifman, Klein & Murphy, 1989
Visser & Krosnick, 1998
Tesch, 1983
Young & McCoy, 2015
CASE
STUDIES
CASE STUDY #1: AGE EFFECTS IN
PREDICTIONS FOR BOX OFFICE SALES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ABOUT THE STUDY
GOALS
ABOUT THE STUDY
SAMPLE
ABOUT THE STUDY
INDEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
DEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUES
PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL AND DIGITAL METRICS ACROSS
MOVIE-GOING AGE BANDS
Digital is a better predictor of purchase behavior among those 18-44
39%
28% 28%
35%
54%
37%
55%
49%
41%
19%
13 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54
Digital Metrics
Non-Digital Metrics
PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
CASE STUDY #2: AGE EFFECTS IN
PREDICTIONS FOR AUTOMOTIVE SALES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ABOUT THE STUDY
GOALS
ABOUT THE STUDY
SAMPLE
ABOUT THE STUDY
INDEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
DEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUES
PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR HIGH PRICE AUTOMOBILES
Lower predictive value for intent to purchase among younger
audiences suggests aspirational responses
27% 24% 25%
38% 36%
10% 13% 14%
14% 15%14% 12%
13%
15% 15%
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64
Behavioral Metrics
Survey (Intent)
PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
Conversational Metrics
PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR MID-PRICED AUTOMOBILES
12%
18% 22% 19% 19%
30%
32%
30%
30% 31%
52%
45% 43% 45% 45%
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64
Survey (Intent)
PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
Digital and social signals far exceed prediction values for self-reported intent
Behavioral Metrics
Conversational Metrics
PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR LOW-PRICED AUTOMOBILES
Results suggest those with more financial flexibility could be exhibiting
self-monitoring around intent to make fiscally responsible choice
37% 31% 26% 26% 26%
51% 65% 71% 71% 70%
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64
Digital & Social Metrics
Survey (Intent)
PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
CONCLUSIONS
AND NEXT
STEPS
SITUATIONS WHERE SELF-
MONITORING IS LIKELY
BRANDS THAT FALL INTO
LOWER PRICE TIERS
SITUATIONS WHERE DIGITAL AND SOCIAL CAN ADD ADDITIONAL
PREDICTIVE VALUE
Return to Table of Contents
THANK YOU

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Social Desirability Effects in Market Research Effectiveness

  • 1. Return to Table of Contents SOCIAL DESIRABILITY EFFECTS IN MARKET RESEARCH EFFECTIVENESS 9.19.2016
  • 2. MEET THE TEAM A BIT OF CONTEXT THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL CASE STUDIES CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS
  • 4. MEET THE TEAM KELLEY STERNHAGEN Director, Analytics W2O Group SETH DUNCAN Chief Analytics Officer, W2O Group
  • 6. THE ALLURE OF DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA
  • 7. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  • 8. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  • 9. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  • 10. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  • 11. ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA While social is not representative of the population, the population is represented on social of people in developed markets have active accounts on their country’s most popular social platform (We Are Social) of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis Social media provides insight into younger audiences, which have been more difficult to understand in the past
  • 12. PEOPLE POST A RANGE OF POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EXPERIENCES ONLINE
  • 13. SOCIAL MEASUREMENT CAN LACK ACTIONABILITY FOR MARKETERS
  • 14. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  • 15. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  • 16. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  • 17. ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE 1% CREATE CONTENT 9% SHARE AND REPACKAGE 90% LISTEN AND LEARN
  • 18. LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
  • 19. LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
  • 20. LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
  • 22. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
  • 23. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… BOX OFFICE RECEIPTS (Asur & Huberman, 2010; Noseworthy, 2013; Panaligan & Chen, 2013)
  • 24. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… ELECTORAL OUTCOMES (DiGrazia et. al., 2013; Maldonado & Sierra, 2016; O’Connor et. al., 2010; Tumasjan et. al., 2010)
  • 25. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… INFLUENZA OUTBREAKS (Ginsberg & Mohebbi, 2009)
  • 26. SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF… ECONOMIC INDICES (Choi & Varian, 2012)
  • 27. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
  • 28. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES Young & McCoy, 2015
  • 29. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011 Young & McCoy, 2015
  • 30. SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011 Reifman, Klein & Murphy, 1989 Visser & Krosnick, 1998 Tesch, 1983 Young & McCoy, 2015
  • 32. CASE STUDY #1: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR BOX OFFICE SALES
  • 39. PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL AND DIGITAL METRICS ACROSS MOVIE-GOING AGE BANDS Digital is a better predictor of purchase behavior among those 18-44 39% 28% 28% 35% 54% 37% 55% 49% 41% 19% 13 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 Digital Metrics Non-Digital Metrics PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
  • 40. CASE STUDY #2: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR AUTOMOTIVE SALES
  • 47. PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR HIGH PRICE AUTOMOBILES Lower predictive value for intent to purchase among younger audiences suggests aspirational responses 27% 24% 25% 38% 36% 10% 13% 14% 14% 15%14% 12% 13% 15% 15% 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 Behavioral Metrics Survey (Intent) PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION Conversational Metrics
  • 48. PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR MID-PRICED AUTOMOBILES 12% 18% 22% 19% 19% 30% 32% 30% 30% 31% 52% 45% 43% 45% 45% 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 Survey (Intent) PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION Digital and social signals far exceed prediction values for self-reported intent Behavioral Metrics Conversational Metrics
  • 49. PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR LOW-PRICED AUTOMOBILES Results suggest those with more financial flexibility could be exhibiting self-monitoring around intent to make fiscally responsible choice 37% 31% 26% 26% 26% 51% 65% 71% 71% 70% 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 Digital & Social Metrics Survey (Intent) PREDICTIVE(R2)CONTRIBUTION
  • 51. SITUATIONS WHERE SELF- MONITORING IS LIKELY BRANDS THAT FALL INTO LOWER PRICE TIERS SITUATIONS WHERE DIGITAL AND SOCIAL CAN ADD ADDITIONAL PREDICTIVE VALUE
  • 52. Return to Table of Contents THANK YOU