Economic Outlook Burin Adulwattana
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Global COVID-19 update with only 2.3% of people in low-income countries receiving at least one vaccine dose. New Zealand abandoned its zero-COVID strategy amid a persistent Delta outbreak. Theme parks in Japan were busy on a sunny Saturday as restrictions eased. The UK faced a fuel crisis with shortages at gas stations due to a lack of truck drivers. Evergrande's debt crisis in China caused its dollar bonds to drop in value. Over half of China's provinces limited electricity use due to a power shortage caused by stopping Australian coal imports and manufacturing contracting again in September.
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Economic Outlook Burin Adulwattana
- 1. 1 Economic Outlook Burin Adulwattana Chief Economist 1
- 2. 2 ประเด็นที่ 5: COVID-19 Update
- 3. 3 Global Only 2.3% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose Source: Our World in Data, MOH Singapore, กระทรวงการอุดมศึกษา วิทยาศาสตร์ วิจัยและนวัตกรรม (อว.)
- 4. 4 New Zealand Source: reuters New Zealand abandoned its long-standing strategy of eliminating coronavirus amid a persistent Delta outbreak.
- 5. 5 Japan Source: Nikkei Theme parks and shopping districts were bustling on a sunny Saturday morning
- 6. 6 ประเด็นที่ 4: UK fuel crisis
- 7. 7 UK fuel crisis Source: Bloomberg
- 8. 8 UK fuel crisis Source: Bloomberg
- 9. 9 ประเด็นที่ 3: China Evergrande
- 10. 10 Betting on Default Evergrande’s crisis has dragged down its dollar bonds Source: Bloomberg
- 11. 11
- 12. 12 ประเด็นที่ 2: China’s power crunch
- 13. 13 Power Shortage More than half of China’s mainland provinces are limiting electricity use Source: Bloomberg
- 14. 14 NO MORE COAL FROM AUSTRALIA China has stopped importing coal from Australia on political spat Source: Bloomberg
- 15. 15 Manufacturing Back in Contraction While services rebound in September Source: Bloomberg
- 16. 16 ประเด็นที่ 1: Payout for US College Athletes
- 17. 17
- 18. 18
- 19. 19
- 20. 20
- 21. 21 Thank You
- 22. 22 Discrepancy China’s power usage outpaces coal production in past years Source: Bloomberg
- 23. 23 China Shock Spike in factory prices in China putting pressure on consumer prices elsewhere Source: Bloomberg
Notas del editor
- 45.6% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. 6.31 billion doses have been administered globally, and 26.19 million are now administered each day. Only 2.3% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.
- New Zealand drops COVID-19 elimination strategy under pressure from Delta | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealand-extends-auckland-lockdown-eases-some-curbs-2021-10-04/ New Zealand on Monday abandoned its long-standing strategy of eliminating coronavirus amid a persistent Delta outbreak and will instead look to live with the virus and control its spread as its vaccination rate rises. "With this outbreak and Delta the return to zero is incredibly difficult," Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told a news conference in a major policy shift. "This is a change in approach we were always going to make over time. Our Delta outbreak has accelerated this transition. Vaccines will support it," she said. Ardern said a lockdown affecting 1.7 million people in the biggest city Auckland will be scaled back in phases, with some freedoms introduced from Wednesday. The change of direction came as the country recorded 29 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, taking the total number in the current outbreak to 1,357. Most cases are in Auckland, which has been in lockdown for nearly 50 days. Amid mounting pressure, Ardern has said her strategy was never to have zero cases, but to aggressively stamp out the virus. She said strict lockdowns will end once 90% of the eligible population is vaccinated. About two million New Zealanders have so far been fully vaccinated, or about 48% of the eligible population. People in Auckland will be able to leave their homes to connect with loved ones outdoors from Wednesday, with a limit of 10 people, as well as go to beaches and parks.
- Active cases: 22,724 Severe: 696 Daily new cases: 1,246 Japan slowly opens economy after ending state of emergency - Nikkei Asia https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-slowly-opens-economy-after-ending-state-of-emergency Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga decided to lift the restrictions on Friday, as the number of new infections has declined and more people are vaccinated against COVID-19. Tokyo reported 200 new cases on Friday, down from a peak of more than 5,500 in August. Japanese businesses are cautiously opening up on the first weekend since the government lifted the COVID-19 state of emergency across the country. Theme parks and shopping districts were bustling on a sunny Saturday morning, Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea, both of which on Friday raised the limit on visitors from 5,000 people a day to 10,000. The parks said they will also begin selling alcoholic beverages at restaurants again. But they are still operating on short hours, from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m., "for the time being,“ Tickets to both parks are sold out through early November, according to the company's website. Universal Studios Japan in Osaka has also decided to gradually raise the daily limit on visitors from 5,000 people to 10,000 people. It will also start selling alcohol at some restaurants The easing of restrictions has brought out travelers as well. People with suitcases in tow were seen boarding trains at Tokyo Station on Saturday (During the state of emergency the government asked people to refrain from traveling between prefectures.) Restaurants and izakaya pubs, some of which were closed during the state of emergency because they could not serve alcohol, are preparing to reopen. The number of reservations made at some 5,300 restaurants nationwide on Sept. 30 was 68,000, 30% higher than on Sept. 27, according to TableCheck, an online reservation service. The government will continue asking restaurants and other dining establishments to close by 8 p.m. for about another month, but those that have taken sufficient infection prevention measures can stay open until 9 p.m. Municipalities will decide whether restaurants can serve alcohol. In Tokyo, establishments will be allowed to serve alcohol until 8pm after receiving certification for their anti-COVID measures.
- Power Crunch Chinese factories in 21 provinces have been hit by power cuts in recent weeks, largely driven by a spike in coal prices that made it unprofitable for power plants to sell electricity at fixed-prices. The impact was in the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which declined to 49.6 from 50.1 in August, below the 50 median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Beijing has scrambled to solve the problem by allowing power companies to raise prices and trying to funnel more coal to the sector. Those efforts could get production going again in many factories, but that relief might not come for weeks. Beyond that, Beijing is signaling that it wants highly energy-intensive producers, like steel and chemical factories, to reduce output for the rest of the year, as it tries to meet environmental targets. China’s aim to reduce energy intensity, or how much power is needed to drive output, by around 3% in 2021 could drag down full-year growth by 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points, according to Ming Ming, head of fixed income research at Citic Securities Co.
- Why doesn’t China import more coal? The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic planning agency, said on Sept. 29 that the country, traditionally a major buyer in the world market, will increase coal imports “moderately.” But supplies have been tight, due to the global energy crunch, and prices have climbed to record levels. China stopped buying the highly energy-efficient Newcastle grade from Australia last year amid a political dispute. That tension isn’t likely to ease as U.S. President Joe Biden seeks to rally allies, including Australia, to counter Beijing’s influence across the Indo-Pacific region. Rising purchases from Indonesia helped make up for the missing Australian coal this year, but energy demand in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy also soared, and increases from other sources are in doubt. Mongolia, China’s resource-rich neighbor, sold less coal this year partly due to China’s strict border controls to prevent the spread of Covid-19.
- Manufacturing PMI drops below 50 as energy crunch hits output Activity in China’s vast factory sector contracted in September for the first time since the pandemic began, the latest sign of deceleration in the world’s second-largest economy. The drop in the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index below the 50-mark, which signals a decline in output, shows the damage a widespread electricity crunch is having on growth. Alongside tough measures to rein in the property market, the latest developments have led economists to pare back full-year growth predictions below 8% and warn that Beijing could be willing to tolerate a sharper slowdown as it tries to reform its economic model. When the government set its growth target at “above 6%” in March, economists saw it as modest against their own predictions of 8%-plus. Many are now rethinking their views, with major banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Nomura Holdings Ltd. downgrading their forecasts in recent weeks to as low as 7.7%. รัฐบาลจีนกำลังพิจารณาปรับขึ้นค่าไฟฟ้าสำหรับกลุ่มโรงงานอุตสาหกรรม เพื่อแก้ปัญหาขาดแคลนพลังงานในประเทศ การพิจารณาปรับค่าไฟฟ้าของจีนในครั้งนี้เป็นผลมาจากปัญหาขาดแคลนพลังงานอย่างรุนแรงใน 20 มณฑล ซึ่งมีขนาดเศรษฐกิจรวมกันคิดเป็นมากกว่า 66% ของ GDP ประเทศ ส่งผลกระทบเป็นลูกโซ่ให้โรงงานหลายแห่งที่เป็นซัพพลายเออร์ให้บริษัทยักษ์ใหญ่อย่าง Apple, Tesla และ Toyota ต้องหยุดเดินสายการผลิตชั่วคราว โดยสาเหตุหลักของการขาดแคลนเกิดจากราคาถ่านหินที่เพิ่มขึ้นอย่างรวดเร็วในตลาดโลก ทำให้โรงไฟฟ้าที่ใช้ถ่านหินเป็นเชื้อเพลิงลดกำลังการผลิตเพื่อลดการขาดทุน เนื่องจากราคาขายไฟฟ้าของโรงไฟฟ้าในจีนถูกกำหนดเพดานไว้โดยรัฐบาล โดยสาเหตุหลักของการขาดแคลนเกิดจากราคาถ่านหินที่เพิ่มขึ้นอย่างรวดเร็วในตลาดโลก ทำให้โรงไฟฟ้าที่ใช้ถ่านหินเป็นเชื้อเพลิงลดกำลังการผลิตเพื่อลดการขาดทุน เนื่องจากราคาขายไฟฟ้าของโรงไฟฟ้าในจีนถูกกำหนดเพดานไว้โดยรัฐบาล นอกจากการปรับขึ้นค่าไฟเพื่อแก้ปัญหาแล้ว ทางการจีนยังออกมาระบุว่า จะเร่งนำเข้านำถ่านหิน เพื่อให้เป็นสต๊อกให้กับโรงไฟฟ้าในช่วงฤดูหนาวที่จะมาถึง เพื่อป้องกันการขาดแคลนไฟฟ้าในช่วงดังกล่าวที่ความต้องการใช้พลังงานจะเพิ่มสูงขึ้น ข่าวการพิจารณาปรับขึ้นค่าไฟของทางการส่งผลให้ราคาหุ้นกลุ่มโรงไฟฟ้าจีนปรับตัวดีขึ้น โดยราคาหุ้น Huadian Power International Corp ปรับเพิ่มขึ้นถึง 5% หลังจากที่ตกลงไป 1.7% ในช่วงก่อนหน้านี้ ขณะที่ราคาหุ้นของ Datang International Power Generation ปรับตัวดีขึ้น 3.5%
- Why can’t China meet its power demand? Mainly because it’s short of coal. Coal-based producers account for more than 70% of the country’s electricity generation, but Xi’s push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and go “carbon neutral” by 2060 has capped the growth of coal mining. Demand for power from Chinese factories soared as orders from overseas mounted, but utilities were unable to buy enough fuel after prices surged. (Factory activity contracted in September for the first time since the start of the Covid pandemic.) China’s coal production grew by 6% in the first eight months this year, but the power output from coal-fired generators surged 14% in the same period, leading to a decline in inventories. Certain northern areas also need to reserve enough coal for the upcoming winter heating season, which is worsening the current shortage. Why didn’t government officials ask coal mines to dig more? Actually they have, but it’s not that quick or easy. Any new or reopened mines also have to meet tighter environmental standards under Xi’s green push. Penalties for violations of workplace safety rules rose from fines to possible jail time in March following a spate of tragic accidents, making mining companies even more reluctant to boost production. Complicating things further is that, since China set goals to lower coal’s share of overall energy production, some financial institutions have stopped funding the business.
- What would higher electricity prices mean for the economy? - Millions of producers that relied on cheap and stable power supplies for decades wouldn’t be happy. In the short term, it might further push up factory gate inflation, which reflects the changes in prices producers charge to wholesalers. That index hit a 13-year high in August, mainly driven by higher commodity prices. The government has sought to keep such inflation pressures from dampening the economic recovery, with so far limited effect.