DevOps Days Tel Aviv 2013: The DevOps field guide to cognitive biases - Lindsay Holmwood
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As devops practitioners we focus on improving the culture of collaboration so that others play nicely with us & we play nicely with others - but what if the biggest thing holding us back from change is our own brains? Cognitive biases can deeply affect our behaviours towards others by herding us towards mental shortcuts that are optimised for timeliness over accuracy, at the expense of rationalising irrational behaviour. You are probably pushing these biases onto other people every day but don't even know it. Does that idea make you feel unconfortable? You are probably experiencing the Semmelweis reflex kicking your confirmation bias right now. Knowing is half the battle. This talk will delve into some of the well-known and less well-known biases that may be affecting your ability to work with your peers, and your team's ability to work constructively with other teams. Attendees will leave the talk with an overview of biases they run into every day, how to hack their brains to use these biases to their advantage, and some tips on how to mitigate the effects of the limitations baked into their wetware. We have met the enemy and he is us. Speaker: Lindsay Holmwood Lindsay Holmwood is a engineering manager living in the Australian Blue Mountains. He is the creator of Visage & cucumber-nagios, and organises the Sydney DevOps Meetup. He runs a distributed infracoders team at Bulletproof Networks, that builds hassle free tools, and was responsible for ensuring 100% uptime for the 2010 + 2011 + 2012 Movember campaigns. In his spare time, Lindsay organises the monthly Sydney DevOps Meetups. He also won third place at the 1996 Sydney Royal Easter Show LEGO building competition.
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DevOps Days Tel Aviv 2013: The DevOps field guide to cognitive biases - Lindsay Holmwood
- 1. Devops field guide to understanding cognitive biases
- 10. Your current iPhone is slower http://www.flickr.com/photos/brenderous/3671106784/
- 11. Time to upgrade!
- 12. Why?
- 13. Apple has made my device slower!
- 17. See correlations where they are none
- 18. Your device has always been that slow
- 19. Clustering illusion is a Cognitive bias
- 26. Heuristic?
- 27. Pattern matching Heuristics are simple, efficient rules often used by people to form judgements and make decisions. Involve focusing on specific information, and ignoring others. http://www.flickr.com/photos/buttim/1297081125/sizes/o
- 40. Seek information that reinforces position
- 42. Interpret ambiguous information in your favour!
- 44. Who is clueless enough to think Colbert is a conservative? • Why do conservatives like Stephen Colbert? • Ohio study finds conservatives believe Colbert dislikes liberalism • http://althouse.blogspot.com.au/2006/05/who-is-clueless-enough-to-think.html http://www.alternet.org/story/137918/why_do_conservatives_like_stephen_colbert http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/ohio-study-finds-conservatives-believe
- 46. Debugging code
- 47. My code is perfect!
- 48. I know the problem is in this other library
- 49. I just can't find it!
- 51. The bug was in my code
- 54. Take opposing viewpoints In studies of stock markets, investors made more profit when the resisted bias. To combat the effects, investors can adopt a contrary viewpoint "for the sake of argument". Krueger, David; Mann, John David (2009), The Secret Language of Money: How to Make Smarter Financial Decisions and Live a Richer Life, McGraw Hill Professional, pp. 112–113,ISBN 978-0-07-162339-1, OCLC 277205993
- 55. Is your conclusion negative? It could be biased. Cognitive therapy is a type of psychotherapy developed in the 1960's that has become a popular approach to combating cognitive biases. As new data tends to reinforce existing opinions, cognitive therapy teaches people to interpret new data impartially.
- 57. Good collaboration? Free pass on infractions When people are given feedback that conflicts with their self image, they regard it as unreliable and are less likely to act on it.
- 58. Confirmation reinforces, You ignore other sources
- 62. • • • • Provisioning: We're being hurt badly by VMware provs! Software: We'll automate that now!
- 63. 2 weeks later
- 64. Provisioning: We're being hurt badly by load balancer provs! • • • • Software: We'll automate that now!
- 65. 1 week later
- 66. • • • • Provisioning: We're being hurt badly by VMware provs! Software: We'll automate that now!
- 67. 4 weeks later
- 68. • • • • Provisioning: We're being hurt badly by EC2 provs! Software: We'll automate that now!
- 69. 18 months
- 72. Working on the thing closest to us that hurts us most.
- 73. But it's not the biggest problem overall!
- 74. Would you work like this?
- 75. Hindsight bias
- 76. "knew it all along" effect
- 77. memory distortion you alter your memories to fit a narrative in your head of how you perceived things
- 78. Asiana pilot "couldn't see runway before crash" • Pilots in Asiana crash relied on automatic equipment for airspeed • Asiana says crash pilot was in training • Inexperienced pilots may be cause of Asiana jet crash • Asiana pilots "stayed silent until two seconds before crash" • Fears pilots' manual flying skills eroding after Asiana crash • • http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2013/07/10/12/43/asiana-pilot-couldn-t-see-runwaybefore-crash http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/17940112/asiana-flight-crew-saw-troubleat-500-feet-u-s-safety-board-says/ http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/crash-pilots-wanted-to-abort-landing-asboeing-777-approached-airport-too-low-investigators/story-e6frg6so-1226675762698 http://www.theguardian.com.au/story/1628513/inexperienced-pilots-may-be-cause-ofasiana-jet-crash/?cs=5 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/asiana-airline-pilots-stayed-silentuntil-two-seconds-before-crash-at-san-francisco-airport-8698477.html http://www.news.com.au/world-news/fears-pilots-manual-flying-skills-eroding-afterasiana-airlines-crash-in-san-francisco/story-fndir2ev-1226676769126
- 79. Judgement
- 80. "You were capable of preventing a bad outcome"
- 83. "I don't want that thing that woke me last night to wake me again"
- 84. "I'm going to make that problem go away."
- 85. But...
- 86. How often does that alert fire?
- 87. What percentage of all alerts is that?
- 88. Are there other alerts that are more frequent?
- 89. What makes this alert the most important to fix?
- 93. Make decisions based on that data http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
- 94. Act on data, not feelings Scientific method works great for experimentation, but things fall down once you publish your evidence: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publication_bias
- 95. Explain in terms of foresight http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias#Judicial_system
- 101. ???
- 102. "I don't know what you're complaining about"
- 103. "It's just a bunch of typing" http://www.flickr.com/photos/jjackowski/3812946635/
- 105. The less you know about a topic, the better you think you are at it
- 106. The less you know about a topic, the poorer your ability to recognise skill in others
- 107. The more you know about a topic, the worse you think you are at it
- 108. Why?
- 109. • More skill • More practice • More experience • See complexity + nuance
- 110. "Curse of knowledge"
- 111. • Less skill • Less practice • Less experience • No peer feedback
- 112. "Poor performers don't learn from feedback suggesting a need to improve"
- 113. Examples
- 114. "I can write code better than any of our developers"
- 115. "I can scale our systems way better than our sysadmins"
- 116. "I can lead people way better than my boss"
- 117. NO. YOU CAN'T.
- 118. You are not a unique snowflake
- 120. Minimal training Improved self-assessment DevOps in a nutshell grossly incompetent subjects improved their ability to self-assess own skills level after minimal training regardless of an actual improvement in that skill
- 121. Make engineers managers this is a large hammer to wield, but it can be effective
- 122. Non-technical manager? Lean on your engineers!
- 123. Ethnic diversity most of the studies of dunning-kruger have been in western cultures preliminary research suggests there may be an opposite effect in east-asian cultures
- 124. The incompetent gloat, The capable choke
- 126. Confirmation bias
- 127. Hindsight bias
- 130. How vulnerable to these biases are you? Quick show of hands - given everything you've just heard about these biases, how vulnerable to them do you think you are?
- 131. • "I'm aware of my biases" • "These don't affect me" • "I am better than average"
- 133. Bias blind spot
- 136. Why?
- 137. Self-esteem
- 138. Control
- 140. Confirmation reinforces, You ignore other sources
- 142. The incompetent gloat, The capable choke
- 145. • Fluent, Fast, Smooth • Higher value
- 146. This is a test
- 147. 1.Read the statement once 2.Count the letter F
- 148. FINAL FOLIOS SEEM TO RESULT FROM YEARS OF DUTIFUL STUDY OF TEXTS ALONG WITH YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE.
- 149. How many did you see? The answer is 8
- 151. FINAL FOLIOS SEEM TO RESULT FROM YEARS OF DUTIFUL STUDY OF TEXTS ALONG WITH YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE.
- 152. Brain expects pattern to continue
- 154. Counter this behaviour http://www.wrayherbert.com/blog/memory-learning-and-the-fluency-heuristic
- 156. Use checklists
- 157. Induce randomness
- 159. Rhyme your mantras
- 164. How many passes?
- 165. What's on the gorilla's chest?
- 166. Did you see the curtains change colour?
- 167. Or one of the players leave?
- 169. It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. • It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. • • Mark Twain
- 170. Creating "good culture" is a distraction.
- 171. Culture is made from people
- 175. Improve ourselves.
- 176. Culture will flow.
- 177. Thank you! ♥ the talk? Let @auxesis know!
- 178. • Further reading • You Are Not So Smart - David McRaney Sway: The irresistible pull of irrational behavior - Ori Brafman • • Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman • Checklist Manifesto - Atul Gawande The field guide to understanding human error - Sidney Dekker • http://www.amazon.com/You-Are-Not-So-Smart/dp/1592407366/ http://www.amazon.com/Sway-Irresistible-Pull-Irrational-Behavior/dp/0385530609/ http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ http://www.amazon.com/The-Checklist-Manifesto-Things-Right/dp/0312430000/ http://www.amazon.com/Field-Guide-Understanding-Human-Error/dp/0754648265/