2. In the 1950s, the U.S. learned that anthropogenic
(man-made) emissions had driven the planet’s
temperature up 2oC in just 100 years
Dr. Frank Baxter’s 1958 report on the Bell Telephone Science Hour
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-AXBbuDxRY
Portion of audiobook of GE Research Lab’s Climate and Industrial
Activity, published in the 1950s , Schenetady, NY)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdALFnlwV_o
4. Iditarod Race Saved! Anchorage, Alaska
imports snow from the north
(“Fairbanks snow arrives in Anchorage by train.” Article by Pala Dobbyn/KTUU. Photographer:Beth Mar 2-3, 2016)
5. Sea Ice Melting Fast from Above and Below
(South Antarctic ice shelves 20% thinner than early 1990s:
wind pushing warmer water from climate change)
(E. Rignot, S. Jacobs, et al., “Ice Shelf Melting Around Antarctica” Science 10, p. 1126 (2013))
Sheldon Glacier , Antarctica, 2011
(Courtesy of British Antarctic Survey/Reuters; M. Fischetti, “Stable Antarctic Ice Is Suddenly Melting Fast: multiple glaciers,
previously frozen solid, are adding vast quantities of water to the ocean” Scientific American, May 21, 2015)
6. Hybrid offspring like Grizzly-Polar Bear
occurring with no traditional climatic barriers
1st wild polar-grizzly bear hybrid was confirmed in 2006:
Big-game hunter from Idaho
shot and killed
a “mostly white male
covered in patches of brown fur,
…long grizzly-like claws,
a humped back, and eyes
ringed by black skin.”
(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/bear-hybrid-photo.html)
Other new pairings:
-N. Atlantic-N. Pacific Minke Whale
-Spotted-Barred Owl
-Golden-/Blue-Winged Warbler
(K. Bagley, “Mix-dn” Audubon, Nov-Dec 2013)
Cannot swim as
well as pure-bred
polar bears
7. Hot Water Cooks 93% of the Great Barrier Reef
(http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bleaching-hits-93-percent-of-the-great-barrier-reef/Brian Kahn, Climate Central on April 20, 2016)
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved =0ahUKEwjPhLqWuJ7MAhXEjz4KHVic
Az4QjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wallpapersxl.com%2Fwallpaper%2F2560x1600%2Focean-reef-underwater-coral-reefs-fish-sea-water-
widescreen-free-hd-859991.html&bvm=bv.119745492,d.cWw&psig=AFQjCNF5nLHu7RhmTF8e3Sq0oeS4Qhv-Ew&ust=1461283672556928;
xl Catlin Seaview Survey http://www.globalcoralbleaching.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Coral-bleaching-7.jpg)
8. Average Changes in Temperature
(5.4 million yrs ago (mya) to Now + 100 yrs)
Pliocene Pleistocene Holocene Future
5 mya 2 mya 10K 150 0 +100
(C. Moritz and R. Agudo, “The Future of Species Under Climate Change: Resilience or Decline?”Science, Vol 341, Aug 2, 2013; 080331-
mammoth-02b.jpg Credit: Mauricio Anton)
9. Billion-Dollar Disasters on the Rise
Since 1958, very heavy precipitation has increased 71% and 37% in
the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S., respectively.
(National Climate Assessment via SmarterSafer.org, “Bracing for the Storm” Report, Apr 2015)
(Red River Flooding, May 2015, www.ktbs.com)
10. Days of Flooding, Annapolis, MD
1955-1964: 32
2005-2014: 394
Human-caused sea-level rise created about 67%
of this tidal flooding in recent years.
(Strauss, B. H., Kopp, R. E., Sweet, W. V. and Bittermann, K. Unnatural Coastal Floods: Sea Level Rise and the Human Fingerprint on
U.S. Floods since 1950. Climate Central Research Report, pp. 1-16)
Flooding risk and mold are harming real estate sales.
(http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-08-12/news/bs-md-annapolis-baltimore-flooding-study-20140811_1_compromise-street-
nuisance-flooding-flooding-events)
Wallops Island, VA
“Missions flown from the NASA base here have documented some of the
most dramatic evidence of a warming planet over the past 20 years.”
(http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/waters-edge-the-crisis-of-rising-sea-levels/)
11. NYC Surge Flooding:
50% more likely than in 1950
Study by 78 researchers of twelve storm events in 2012 concluded:
anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) impacted Sandy and five others
(NOAA and British Meteorology Office, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, N. Diffenbaugh of Stanford U et al.; 9/6/2013 The
Times-Tribune “Study Links Warming to Wild Weather”)
Nuisance flooding from sea-level rise
of Atlantic/Gulf/West Coasts
Then (1950s): < 1x/yr Now: 1x/3 mos.
“While locals on the Outer Banks tussle over whether global warming* is
real, the islands …are gradually, inevitably going under.”
(M. McClelland, “Slip Sliding Away,” Audubon, Mar-Apr 2015)
*common term for anthropogenic climate change, which, confusingly, includes certain
bitter cold spells as one of its extremes in weather
12. Fires burned 2.9 million acres in the 1980s,
but 6.4 million ac. in 2010-13 alone
Firefighters are imperiled more and earlier in the year by frequent and
dangerous wildfires. Some dubbed “megafires” are virtually
unstoppable.
(D. Glick, “The Perfect Firestorm,” Audubon, Jul-Aug 2011)
Students at Montana State University in 2013 examined the science
behind the outbreak of large and intense 'mega-fires' in:
the western US, Australia, Russia, Indonesia and elsewhere.
(http://serc.carleton.edu/NZFires/megafires_course.html)
13. By the early 1990s insurance risk rating agencies
in the U.K./U.S. began to consider the factor of
climate change in predictions
(http://www.gci.org.uk/Documents/CII_Climate_Change.pdf; http://www.armr.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/07
historyins7-10-07.pdf)
12% more lightning events are associated with each 1oC of warming
(D. Romps et al., Science, Nov 14, 2014)
More frequent and severe damages of buildings, vehicles, crops and
bridges, etc. cause insurance companies to charge higher premiums to
protect themselves.
The national government must cover gaps and company liability.
14. Stinging Jellyfish, Longer Allergy Seasons
Sea nettles are moving up NJ coastal waterways with development as
climate change lowers salinity.
(“The Tide,” in magazine of Montclair State University, Fall 2013)
Rising temperatures:
-Create more smog
-Lengthen allergy seasons
-Increase heat stroke and other
extreme-weather injuries and
more deaths among those with
ischemic heart disease
(http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/777090)
“Stinging nettle in Barnegat Bay”
(bbp.ocean.edu)
15. Climate change increases competition for
water, food, grazing lands and other
resources with attendant conflicts
…per Antonio Guterres, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
(http://education.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/climate-refugee/)
“Six-Day War in 1967 arguably had its origins in a water dispute -
moves to divert the River...”
(http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-11101797)
Drought found to be exacerbating civil war in Syria
(T.L. Friedman, “Drought unleases civil war,” The New York Times, reported in the Times-Tribune, January 25, 2014)
16. The U.S. Department of Defense is trying to
control the damage of climate change and
implement sustainable practices.
Sea rise from climate change in the U.S. is threatening thousands of miles of
roads and railways and energy facilities at tremendous economic and
logistical cost. Parts of the military’s naval/air bases and training areas in
Norfolk are increasingly flooded by high tides and storms. In Alaska
thawing permafrost is damaging military facilities.
Natural disasters caused or worsened by climate-change often raise
humanitarian spending and create instabilities from refugee flows and
food/water conflicts. Poverty, political instability, violence and even
terrorism and recruitment for it can result.
(U.S. Department of Defense, “Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan”)
President Barack Obama supports preparation, but “The only way …to
prevent the worst effects … is to slow down the warming of the planet.”
17. American bumblebees pollinate 15% of U.S.
crops, including 10-40% of U.S. strawberries
WHY is the
population of
American
bumblebees
dropping?
Their southern
range is shrinking
with no growth in
their northern
range.
Wind, honey-, bumble- and other bees, moths, and bats pollinate plants.
As variety in an area’s pollinators decreases, so do the seeds/fruits produced.
--Dr. L. Packer, York University
Pollinators are essential for 13 crops, highly significant for 30, moderately for
27, slightly for 21.
(Proceedings of the Royal Society, 2007, https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2015/08/12/pollinator-myth-bees-responsible-one-third-global-food-
heightening-crisis-like-7/)
18. Habitat=Home
(Varied Thrush, Field Guide, www.audubon.org)
But what if you come home only to find that your food was last available 17 days
before?
This happened to the broad-tailed hummingbird returning at the usual
time in the spring to the Rocky Mountains.
Increasingly, the blooming of the flowers that hummingbirds rely on for
nectar is out of sync with their return.
(Audubon, 2014)
Warmer winters and persistent drought in central British Columbia, the
breeding ground of varied thrushes and red-naped sapsuckers, have led
to an explosion of mountain pine beetles. ”57% of its pine stands may be
gone by 2021.”
(Audubon, Sep-Oct 2014)
20. Earth is expected to lose
75% of wild animal species by Year 2200:
Climate Change is a factor
in onset of the ”6th Mass Extinction”
Today’s extinction rate far exceeds the five previous extinctions’ rates.
Those species lost in the past 100 yrs would have lived 800-10,000 more yrs.
(G. Ceballos, P.R. Ehrlich, A.D. Barnosky, A. Garcia, R.M Pringle and T.M. Palmer, “Accelerated modern human–induced species losses:
Entering the sixth mass extinction” Science Advances 1: 5 Jun 19 2015)
41% of amphibian and 26% of mammalian species are not expected to
survive by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
The IUCN appeals for rapid mobilization to protect habitat
and end over-exploitation and fast climate change.
(https://news.stanford.edu/2015/06/19/mass-extinction-ehrlich-06191)
21. The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC):
Market-oriented policies allow efficient energy production “at lower costs
with fewer … disruptions and lower environmental impacts... Onerous
regulations …drive up energy costs, …goods [soon] more expensive…,
disproportionately affecting those with low and fixed incomes.”(www.alec.org)
As ALEC points out, Americans do take energy and products for granted.
Although most of humanity has not yet demanded typical American
comforts, people’s energy needs and wants are rising globally.
Americans assume other quality-of-life expectations as well:
tuna sandwiches, flounder-fillet dinners, vacations at quality parks,
relatively stable weather for landscaping, gardening and farming, etc.
We may have grown up near woodlands with box turtles and scarlet
tanagers and crayfish in the creek.
Even the abundance and diversity of moths plastered to the windshield
after a night drive affirmed biological richness in our world.
22. “The free market should be the principal determinant
of which …technologies reach the marketplace.”
(www.alec.org)
This is an achievable goal if secondary costs (such as the use and release of
GHGs) are included in pricing.
When prices do not reflect true costs,
market-based solutions are impaired or even fail.
Today’s challenge: to create a low-emissions and high carbon-storage world
ALEC counsels “simple and straightforward regulation” as the last resort.
(www.alec.org)
Note: Until the recent die-off, Great Barrier Reef generated $4.45 billion/year
in tourism revenue and supported about 70,000 jobs. –per Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.
The ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies predicts that the economic and
environmental loss from this extensive bleaching will be felt for decades.
23. 2012’s drought in Spain-Portugal
and extreme rainfall in Australia and New Zealand
definitely caused by global warming
Global warming drove the magnitude of these events
and likely (but not conclusively) caused them:
U.S. drought
East Kenya and Somalia drought
North China flooding
(NOAA and British Meteorology Office, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, N. Diffenbaugh of Stanford U et
al.; 9/6/2013 The Times-Tribune “Study Links Warming to Wild Weather”)
24. Vibrio vulnificus, a bacterium that causes serious illness and
“flesh-eating” situations in some with low immunity, is
increasing in FL/Gulf coastal and estuarine waters with
warmer temperature and lower salinity.
Florida’s DOH urges: "Water and wounds don’t mix.”
Infection also happens by eating contaminated undercooked shellfish.
Nearly twice as likely to occur per 1oC rise, it was first detected in Germany
in 1994 “after an unusually warm summer.”
Vibrio bacteria are expanding to Israeli, U.S. Pacific NW
and other temperate waters.
Climate change is also fostering disease
in agricultural and other land use systems.
(http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/232038-overview;
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/features/gone-viral/os-florida-vibrio-vulnificus-dangers-20150612-post.html;
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n1/full/nclimate1628.html?message-global=remove)
(S. Altizer, R.S. Ostfeld, P.T.J Johnson, S. Kutz, C.D. Harvell, “Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework”
Science 341, Aug 2, 2013; Figure 1, C. Baker-Austin et al., Nat. Clim. Change 3 73 (2013)
25. Desertification is conquering agricultural land
and habitats all over the world:
swallowtails, monarchs, sulfurs, painted ladies, fritillaries and
common blue butterflies now hard to find in areas of the
Western U.S. High Desert
(Susan J. Tweit, plant ecologist, 2009)
Musings on Maps. Daniel Brownstein, Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley’s Center for Science, Technology, Medicine and Society,MARCH 25, 2013 ·
3:01 PM. Blog at WordPress.com
26. Photosynthesis:
increases up to 68oF,
stays steady to 95, declines to 104
ceases at 106oF
(Research of M. Wali et al. at Ohio State U., L.R. Brown, Full Planet, Empty Plates: the new geopolitics of food
scarcity, Earth Policy Institute, WW Norton & Company, 2012, 144 pp.; leaf-299931__180.jpg)
“Caught between changing weather patterns and increasing food prices,
more than 900 million people go hungry every day…”
(Oxfam America donation solicitation letter, May 4, 2012)
27. “Changing weather…already
threatening the world’s harvests”
(OXFAMCloseup/Spring 2014)
(www.womenshealthmag.com/avocado)
California, 2016: the state traditionally produces almost half of our vegetables,
fruits and nuts but is still enduring its worst drought in 100 years.
Columbia, 2008: 90% of its snowcaps gone and temperatures 10oF warmer,
Javier Mestres began to see smaller, weaker berries on his coffee plants.
(http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/74602Jan 28, 2008)
Predicted by 2050:
Columbia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania coffee bean production largely ended.
California, France and Italy all too hot for grapes.
(Vineyard shift to China, England and Canada has already begun.)
(Science News, Feb 8, 2014)
28. Bumblebees are dying in parts of North America and
Europe as a result of rapid climate change
(J. Kerr et al., Science 349:6244, July 10, 2015, pp 177-180; A. Neuhauser, “Buzzkill: Global Warming Is Wiping Out the Bees” U.S. News &
World Rpt, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/07/09/study-global-warming-is-wiping-out-bumblebees; Scripps Inst.)
Unlike butterflies, which evolved with migration to/from the tropics,
bumblebees developed in cool to temperate zones.
However, temperatures in No. America and Europe have increased by
~2.5oC (4.5oF) since the Industrial Revolution.
Bumblebees are not flying north but are dying in extreme heat.
The loss in their southern range is as great as 6 miles/yr.
(A recent independent survey also found major shrinkage in range.)
They fly up mountains as possible but these do not always provide food
for the bees.
Also impeding successful adaptation: they do not reproduce quickly.
-- U. of Ottawa’s Dr. J. Kerr and P. Galpern of U. of Calgary
29. South-central Alaska snow pack
important for salmon health
--Sue Mauger, Science Dir., Cook Inletkeeper, 2009
Higher air temperatures > Less snow > Shorter melt period
Less runoff to streams > Higher stream temperatures
Also: Higher air temperatures
> Higher stream temperatures
Both > Increased predation and disease
(22215663-salmo-salar-atlantic-salmon-on-the-white-background.jpg)
Salinity levels are critical for oyster health: Flooding
from Hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011 lower salinity in Delaware Bay,
which caused the highest oyster death in 59 years.
(Dr. E. Powell of Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Research Laboratory in Estuary News 22:2 Winter 2012)
31. In 1958 Charles Keeling began to measure CO2
far from the mainland: Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Within a few years, he was confronted with steadily higher yearly averages
but could not find any natural cause. The “Keeling Curve” is the product of
this careful measuring and graphing for now almost 60 years at this same
location.
(https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/category/keeling-curve-history/)
By 1975 that CO2 was rising was well-known among environmental scientists
but there was no conceivable fix for it. Meantime, other environmental
challenges urgently required time, attention and funding. The issue would
have to be addressed “later.”
--Henry deH. Alexander, P.E., May 5, 2016
Ice cores and tree rings confirm the temperature patterns.
(B. Stutz, “Climate Science 101” onearth, Fall 2005)
In 1988 NASA climatologist James Hansen “surprising” message to Congress:
the warming trend is not natural but rather is “caused by a buildup of CO2
and other artificial gases in the atmosphere.” Degree of certainty? 99%
(http://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html?pagewanted=all)
32. Pre-industrial atmospheric CO2: ~284 ppm,
2015’s yearly average: 397 ppm
(Observatory only provides CO2;
total GHG concentration is higher)
(Source: Mauna Loa Observatory, https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/)
By 2005 with Mauna Loa data showed CO2 levels “higher than at any
time in the past 400,000 years” and growing, the U.N.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began to say that
global temperatures could possibly “rise by as much as 10.8oF from
their 1990 levels.”
(B. Stutz, “Climate Science 101” onearth, Fall 2005)
34. Methane is a more powerful GHG
than is CO2
(29x more long- and 84x more near-term)
Potential Positive Feedback Loop in Arctic:
“Now, a few weeks into summer,
the [top] skin had cracked open,
exposing…dinosaur dung,
mastodon manure…trapped
in the frozen ground
for thousands of years.
I smelled…hydrogen sulfide…
what I couldn’t smell:
the methane and carbon dioxide
rising from the melting permafrost …adding to the layer of gases that
cause global warming.” (Kristan Hutchison, Alaska, 2009)
http://themudreport.blogspot.com/2013/07/climate-models-neglect-methane.html; Methane molecule
www.gcsescience.com
35. Earth has been warming quickly just since the 1850s.
Numerous studies have concluded that emitting
GHG by burning fossil fuels has been the main cause.
Since 1970 in the Northeast U.S.,
the temperature has increased an average of 2oF.
The increase during winter has averaged 4oF.
Maple/beech/birch forests are retreating northward.
(Northeast Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Union of Concerned Scientists, www.ucsusa.org/global_warming)
By 2005 more than 1500 studies worldwide confirmed that “frogs mate, birds
nest, and trees bud more than a week earlier than they did 50 years ago.”
(T. Wheeler and J. von Braun, “Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security” Science, Vol 341, Aug 2, 2013)
Warming that allows a longer growing season or less shoveling is
sometimes welcomed but not other accompanying changes.
36. Due to our recent emissions,
Earth’s temperature will rise another 1oF by 2050.
(T. Wheeler and J. von Braun, “Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security” Science 341, Aug 2, 2013)
Photo: Courtesy NASA/GSFC/Reto Stöckli, Nazmi El Saleous, and Marit Jentoft-Nilsen / Via commons.wikimedia.org
37. In 1872-1876, the HMS Challenger’s crew of 200
sailed the world's oceans
& took readings with pressure-protected thermometers
at a few depths in each of 300 locations.
Comparison with modern data shows a 1.1oF
increase at the surface, which fits with modern data
for the last 100 yrs.
90% of Earth’ excess heat is stored in the oceans.
Sea levels rise
from both melting ice
and the characteristic of water to expand as it warms.
(Oceans Started Warming 135 Years Ago, Study Suggests by Joseph Castro, Live Science Contributor, April 02, 2012; D. Roemmich et al.,
Nature Climate Change, Apr 1, 2012)
38. The Warming of the Ocean (1900-Today)
The ocean is also becoming more acidic with
carbonic acid, as it absorbs ever more CO2.
39. 1880-2015: the Warmest Recent of these 135 Years
(1=warmest)
1) 2015 2) 2014 3) 2010
4) 2013 5) 2005 6) 1998/2009 (tie)
8) 2012 9) 2003/2006/2007 12) 2002
13) 2004/2011 15) 2001/2008
(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201513)
Climate Change + fiercely strong El Niño broke many heat records in 2015.
(World Meteorological Organization’s annual State of the Climate Report, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/2015-is-
officially-the-hottest-year-on-record/)
Climate change might even make occasional extreme cold more likely.
Jan. 2014’s significant weakening of the polar vortex’s powerful winds,
which “can top 100 mph,” spilled extremely bitter Arctic air southward.
(http://science.time.com/2014/01/06/climate-change-driving-cold-weather/)
40. Summer heat waves in the Northeastern U.S.
now happen 4x more often than in the 1800s
Link to GHG is proven for:
Extreme summer heat waves in NE and N Central U.S.
Australia and New Zealand’s extreme rainfall
Severity Link to GHG in terms of Severity is proven;
occurrence itself is not proven but likely for:
Europe’s summer extremes
Netherlands’ cold
SW Japan’s heavy rain
(Thomas Karl, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Director cites the evidence of the Bulletin of
the Am Meteorological Society’ study of 12 of 2012’s events as “compelling…that human-caused change
was a factor contributing to the extreme events;”Sept. 6, 2013 The Times-Tribune “Study Links
Warming to Wild Weather” ‘human influence has changed the risk” NOAA and British Meteorology
Office (T of 78 researchers, incl. Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University))
41. “Climategate”
In 2010 staff of Senator James Inhofe (OK) focused attention on leaked
emails from a group of climate scientists purportedly demonstrating debate
on global warming among scientists in climatology and the other related
disciplines.
4 independent international reviews collectively “exonerated the scientists
in question, leaving their major research findings intact.” The consensus of
the scientific community is that “global warming is happening and is
human-induced.”
FOUND TRUE: the absence of info explaining methodologies behind a 1999 World
Meteorological Organization figure, not the methodologies themselves.
FOUND TRUE: The [English University of East Anglia’s] Climate Research Unit
(CRU) should collaborate more with statisticians, but not an attempt to “subvert
the peer review” and “no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice”
FOUND TRUE: Both CRU and the University of East Anglia (UAE) failed to
“display the proper degree of openness” but not that CRU barred access to “or
tampered with land station temperature data”
http://www.wri.org/blog/2010/07/summarizing-investigations-climate-science
42. A tool is available for you to click on a map and
display sea rise from 0-6 feet above current high tides
(developed by NOAA, along with the U.S. Geological Survey, Delaware
Coastal Management Program and other partners)
Mapped variables include: inundation at high tide, flood frequency,
socioeconomic vulnerability, and impacts on marshes.
Select the level of rise that you want to view via a slider bar.
To view projected sea-level rise in the U.S. and its Territory coasts
(except Alaska and Louisiana)
(http://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr)
and, for the Great Lakes, lake-level rise
(http://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/llv)
You can also download data and access web map services supporting the viewer
at http://coast.noaa.gov/slrdata/
43. The amount of GHG emitted in 1995 fell 10% by 2014!
Fewer warming gases entered the atmosphere
due to the global 2007-2009 economic recession, and
energy efficiency, less coal/oil & more natural gas use
(Feng, K. et al. Drivers of the US CO2 emissions 1997–2013. Nat. Commun. 6:7714 (2015).; The New York Times, April 22, 2014)
Residential energy consumption by 2013 dropped to 2001 levels. Although
the number of electronic devices multiplied, market-driven technological
improvements, coupled with governmental policy requiring greater
efficiency, were effective in curtailing energy use.
(U.S. Energy Adm. Report, in Editorial of The Times-Tribune, Jan 8, 2014)
44. U.S. Companies plan for worsening climate
Tom Carnac, president of CDP in No. America: re. future climate risks
“experiencing those risks now… Regulation can help …allowing more
companies to benefit from mitigating the risks, while speeding up the shift to
a profitable low carbon economy.”
(http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/208784-report-us-companies-preparing-for-climate-change, by Laura Barron-Lopez -
06/10/14 10:37 AM EDT)
In October 2015, 81 companies signed the American Business Act on Climate
Pledge, including:
AT&T: By 2020 pledging to “reduce our direct [GHG] by 20% as compared
to …2008; reduce our electricity consumption [overall] on our network by
60% as compared to …2013.
The Hershey Company: To “deploy further actions to reduce … [GHG] by
50% by 2025, compared to …2009, trace all palm oil purchases to mill level by
2015, to plantation level by 2016, ensuring deforestation-free and grown
…sustainably; expand [use] of electric vehicles … and continue to purchase
carbon credits to offset unavoidable emissions in …fleet of vehicles…”
45. West Chester University of Pennsylvania
by 2025
Aiming for a Carbon-Neutral Campus
As promised by the University President in the 2010 Climate Commitment
WCUPA Focus Areas:
-Transportation (Campus Buses)
-HVAC
Compressed Natural Gas
Coal Furnace decommissioning
Geothermal System
-Cafeteria Food
-Campus Trees and Shrubs
46. Damage to Ocean Habitats
Record-warm water driven by El Niño and climate change ”cooked
the life out of corals...”causing “a massive blow to biodiversity” at the
Great Barrier Reef, a World Heritage Site, and other reefs.
2015’s coral bleaching event was the longest of three such events ever
recorded globally. “Hot ocean temperatures fueled by El Niño and
climate change have caused reefs to suffer across every ocean basin.”
--ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
47. A bipartisan group of 21 Florida Coast
mayors urged TV networks to address
climate change in recent debates
“We, the 21 undersigned mayors … are concerned about sea level rise and
climate change and the severe impacts it is having on our
communities…equally concerned that so little attention has been paid to these
issues in the presidential debates. It would be unconscionable for these issues
of …the people of Florida to not be addressed”
Southeast Florida is especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. Four
counties set up the SE Florida Regional Climate Change Compact in 2010
to coordinate their response and pool funds to deal with it.
(http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/03/08/21-florida-mayors-urge-networks-to-address-clim/209083Blog ››› March 8, 2016 12:50 PM EST
››› DENISE ROBBINS; Letter to CNN, The Washington Post, Univision and other media hosting the Democratic and Republican debates
March 9/10, 2016 in Miami. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-idUSMTZSAPEC34J7GI77”)
49. Global Leaders Address Climate Change, Fall 2015
FRENCH PRES. HOLLANDE:
“… statements of intent are not enough. We are at breaking point…I can’t
separate the fight with terrorism from the fight against global warming.”
BRITAIN’s PRINCE CHARLES:
“Humanity faces many threats but none is greater than climate change…
we are becoming the architects of our own destruction.”
PALAU’S PRES. REMENGESAU:
“We must also scale up pre-2020 climate action.”
HONDURAS PRES. HERNANDEZ:
“For Honduras, climate change is a matter of life and death.”
50. In 1988 we had 5 billion people on Earth.
As of May 5, 2016, the world has about 7,300,000,000 people.
8-billion population is predicted for 2025, 8.8 bn for 2035, 9.5 bn for 2045
(www.livepopulation.com/)
“environmental challenges will …grow as the developing world begins
using greater quantities of energy...” (www.alec.org)
51. The U.N. IPCC assumes peak of 9 billion by 2050 and
U of Washington study finds “70% chance that the
number …will rise continuously to 11 billion in 2100”
(http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/18/world-population-new-study-11bn-2100; world-population-increase-010.jpg
Photograph: James Marshall/Corbis)
“Population [is] barely mentioned in UN-led sustainable development goals”
(S. Ross of Population Matters, a NP supported by naturalist Sir David Attenborough)
52. Our current warming is like the biggest
changes over “the past 65 million years but
…orders of magnitude more rapid.”
A cooling period that started 52 mya took 18 million years.
(N.S. Diffenbaugh and C.B. Field, “Changes in Ecologically Critical Terrestrial Climate Conditions” Science 341, Aug 2,
2013)
The HCO (Holocene Climate Optimum) was fast!
It began 11,000 years ago in NW North America and
rapidly – over 2,000 years – warmed the region. During
this time, the HCO significantly reduced the number of
giant trees. It then proceeded, again “rapidly”, to turn
much of the American heartland to desert. Finally,
by 5,000 years ago, it blanketed Northeastern No. America.
(per Todd Dawson UC Berkeley, co-director of the redwood-climate research project (E. Humes, Sierra, Mar/Apr
2011), (http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/global warming.htm, Dec 5, 2015) (D.S. Kaufman, T.A. Ager, et al. (2004).
"Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0-180 W)". Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (5–6): 529–560)
53. By 2100, New Jersey Hide Tide will be a minimum of
3’ higher with 6’ plausible, plus occasional footage
from storm surges.
Most U.S. coastal areas should expect flooding for
>=30 days/year by 2050
(Dr. B. Strauss, sea-rise specialist & W. Sweet, NOAA oceanographer, Ctr for Oceanographic Products and Services, told NJ Advance
Media re. 2014 NOAA report, http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/rising_seas_could_force_837k_nj_resident_from_thei.html)
http://grist.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/noaa-katrina-new-orleans_h528.jpg
54. We could reach the conservative limit of a 2°C rise in
global temperature not by 2100 but by 2050.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/why-the-paris-talks-wont-prevent-2-degrees-of-global-warming/
By 2050, the ocean will flood the homes of 20 million people in Bangladesh.
(http://education.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/climate-refugee/)
Given recent melting, the research team with Dr. Hansen has made a
startling prediction “with near certainty”: the ocean will rise 10‘ by 2100.
Currently living on the land that could be inundated are:
-those of the 1,200,000 who returned to New Orleans after Katrina
->700,000 residents of New York City
-33% of Florida’s population
(A.J. Reed et al, “Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era” Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Sept 28, 2015;
J. Hansen, M. Sato et al., “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern
observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous”Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16:6, Mar. 22, 2016, pp 3761—3812;
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/)
The December 2015 temperature report by the Japanese Meteorological
Society further points to the urgent need to curtail GHG emissions to the
absolute best of our ability.
(http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/dec_wld.html)
55. Flooding Predictions for NYC show a maximum of
6.25-foot seas level rise, the assumed high estimate
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiD3fr-
y57MAhVFlB4KHZT-AukQjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Finsideclimatenews.org%2Fnews%2F18022015%2F6-more-feet-sea-
level-rise-possible-century-nyc-climate-panel-warns&bvm=bv.119745492,d.cWw&psig=AFQjCNE-nYcCkxBsSNwuiOR-
VKFT7nDL6w&ust=1461288930630946
57. Approximately half of all Americans are under 35
“and have never experienced a year of ‘average’
temperatures.”
(Union of Concerned Scientists, Earthwise, Vol 15:2, Spring 2013)
Higher temperatures have extended “the pollen season in parts of the U.S.
…by 2 wks, or more, since the 1990s.” Higher CO2 has also led to higher
pollen production in plants like ragweed.
Temperatures in the 90s create more ground-level ozone for that
customary late-day peak. Inhaling this ozone does not only damage the
leaves of many plants; it harms our lungs. Triggering asthma attacks and
episodes of difficult breathing for those with chronic lung diseases,
ground-level ozone is “a potent air pollutant.”
(http://www.chgeharvard.org/topic/climate-change-and-health-children#sthash.GUI0yLQu.dpuf)
Whereas pediatricians regularly dealt mostly with infections before,
now asthma and premature births are among the top issues.
(Dr. Catherine Karr, U of Wahington Dept of Pediatrics, Co-op America Quarterly, Spr 2008)
58. Best speeds on highway to emit fewest air pollutants
overall: 50-60 mph
(Summarizing tests by the government, Consumer Energy Center and others; check results for make/model of vehicle)
Pennsylvania Turnpike’s new speed limit for most of
its length: just raised from 65 to 70 mph (no kidding)
(17 Mar 2016 The Times-Tribune ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Burning 1 gallon of gasoline emits almost 25 lbs of
greenhouse gases
(including emissions from point of origin)
(Union of Concerned Scientists, Earthwise, Vol 15:2, Spring 2015)
(Image http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/x/cartoon-car-2197595.jpg)
59. Eastern Pennsylvania
(Union of Concerned Scientists, “Climate Change Impacts and Solutions for Pennsylvania: how today’s actions shape the
state’s future” 2008)
Feels like northern Virginia by 2050
(Conditions right for spread of kudzu vine.)
Feels like northern South Carolina by 2100
(Concord grapes still able to grow 3 of 5 yrs)
In the lower-emissions scenario.
Feels like northern South Carolina by 2050
(Lower yield and quality of PA sweet corn
(pollen cannot travel on dried silk))
Feels like southern Georgia by 2100
(Damaging ozone concentrations + 25%)
In the higher-emissions scenario.
60. Audubon’s North America
Climate Change Models
(Audubon, Sep-Oct 2014)
(Photo by Garth McElroy/Vireo from audubon.org)
Inputs: Decades of Christmas Bird Count and North American Breeding
Bird Survey data; 17 climate variables on temperature, precipitation,
seasonal changes
Outputs: Ranges where future conditions likely to support each of 588
species’ historic needs
RESULTS:
314 are “at risk” and by 2080 have left > 50% of current range.
Of these 314, 126 are “climate-endangered” and by 2050 have left.
Some will adapt, others will have nowhere to go.
“The Brown Pelican and Common Loon face increased risk of extinction.”
61. “Sustainability”, “Sustainable development”, etc.
Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.
U.N. World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future aka Brundtland Report, 1987
For renewable resources:
rate of harvest does not exceed that of regeneration
For pollution:
rates of waste generation do not exceed assimilative capacity of the
environment
For nonrenewable resources:
depletion is matched by comparable development of renewable substitutes
for that resource
Paraphrase of Herman Daly’s 1990 list (one of the early pioneers of ecological sustainability)
The possibility that humans and other life will flourish on Earth forever.
--John R. Ehrenfeld and Andrew J. Hoffman, A Frank Conversation about Sustainability, 2013
