Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes

C-MARC

Is National Rail Policy on
the Right Track?
Reflections from Canberra

Assoc. Professor Brett Hughes
Assoc
Director
Curtin - Monash Accident Research Centre, Curtin University

Institution of Engineers (Australia)
WATransport Panel
February 2010

Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au
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Overview

Transport Challenges

Rail in Transport

Personal Perspectives

Accident Issues

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The government's view of the economy
could be summed up in a few short
p
phrases:
If it moves, t it.
tax it
If it keeps moving, regulate it.
p g g
And if it stops moving, subsidize it.
- Ronald Reagan

Industry's view of the economy?
The
Th community's view of the economy?
it ' i f th ?
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Transport Challenges

 Congestion  GFC
 Fuel price
 Climate Change
 Emissions
– greenhouse gases  Accessibility & Equity
– NOx, SOx, etc  Workforce Attraction &
– particulates Retention
R t ti
 Transport Demand
 Community & Business
y
– Passenger ( (population)
l ti )
Expectations
– Freight (population and
economy)

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Optimum Passenger Transport

Density Conditions:
Distance
Density
(capacity)
Air
Speed
Very Terrain
Heavy Fast
Walk

Rail Train
Light
Rail
Bus
or Ferry

Car

Cycle

Distance
Source:
Adapted from The Transportation Experience Policy, Planning, and Deployment.
Garrison & Levinson, Oxford Uni Press, 2006
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Australian Cities
While all developed economies are challenged, in
Australia impacts are greater…

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Perth’s Transport Future?
 B 2020 for Perth it i estimated1 th t
By f P th is ti t d that
– population will increase by 13%;
– road freight transport will increase by 34%;
– traffic delays will increase by 28%;
– congestion costs will rise by 69%
to $1.2 billion per annum.
$ p

 More people die from transport emissions
than
th road crashes2
d h
Sources:
1. stimating
1.Estimating Urban Traffic and Congestion Cost Trends for Australian Cities
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Working Paper 71, Canberra 2007
2. BTRE Report WP63: Health Impacts Of Transport Emissions In Australia:
Economic Costs and Commonwealth Government Road Deaths Australia, 2008 Statistical Summary
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City Transport Performance

290%
260% Our best transport
planning and policy
gets us HERE!

190%

90% Australian City
Heavy Vehicle
Congestion Cost
g
40% Increases

1990 - 2005: 53%
2005 to 2020: 118%

Source: from BITRE WP71 data 1990 to 2020: 234%
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National Rail Freight Performance
DARWIN

Rail Share of Land
KATHERINE Freight Transport

TENNANT CREEK

90%+
ALICE SPRINGS

80%+ BRISBANE

80%+ TARCOOLA 21%
KALGOORLIE
BROKEN HILL
5%
PERTH

SYDNEY
ADELAIDE

5% MELBOURNE
7%
Source: from ARA and BITRE data
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Passenger Transport Average Growth 2000-2004

Outlook Passenger Rail: 1.6%
Private road vehicles: 2.3%

Changes in Urban Passenger Transport Average Growth 2004-2008
(increase from 2000, 2001‐2004 trend shown dotted)
Passenger Rail: 5.1%
30% Private road vehicles: 0.3%
What are the reason for
these changes?
- fuel price?
- congestion?
- population increase?
20% - inner city living?
- ‘green’ choices? Passenger Rail
Passenger Rail

Private road
Private road
vehicles
vehicles
10%
Transport planning
and policy is based
on these forecasts.

0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source:
from BITRE IS31 data
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Land Transport Emissions
Ggrams Australian Land Transport Emissions Forecast
CO2

80000 There is more freight
carried by rail,
than road.

Passenger & Freight Rail
Road Freight
Road Passenger
40000

0
1990 2000 2010 2020
Year Source: BTRE 2005

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Land Transport Emissions
% change Australian Land Transport Emissions Forecast
from 1990

Articulated trucks
150% Light Commercial Vehicles
Rigid and other trucks
Passenger
Passenger and Freight Rail

100%

50%

0%
1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

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The Future of Transport Emissions
Australian Transport Emissions Forecast
Ggrams
CO 2 Aviation
222Mt
Maritime (2050)

200000 Rail (non electric)
Motor Vehicles
2050 Total Australian Emissions Target
g
145Mt
(2050)

100000
75Mt
(2000)
If we continue what we’ve done in the past,
by 2050 transport will contribute more than
2/3 of the total Australian emissions target

Source: BTRE 2005 forecast, extrapolated
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ye ar

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Our Current Transport
 Australian transport fuel use, emissions and transport infrastructure
are amongst the highest per capita in the world
 Nearly 1500 people die on our roads and another 30,000 are injured
and
road crashes cost over $29.6 billion annually
 Traffic congestion in cities costs more than $10 billion annually
 Transport emissions are responsible annually for:
p p y
– the deaths of over 1500 people
– over 4,500 cases of asthma and other sickness (but could be 40% higher)
– cost of death and sickness by transport emissions exceeds $2.3 billion
annually
 Personal transport times and costs are increasing as a proportion of
available time and disposable income, contributing to family pressure
and other social degradation
 There has been no significant move towards more sustainable modes
of transport, until the last four years
 F l usage of passenger cars h
Fuel f have not d
t decreased
d

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Oil and Price Vulnerability
2001 2006

Source: Vulnerability Assessment for Mortgage, Petrol & Inflation Risks & Expenditure,
Dodson & Sipe, Griffith Uni, 2008
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City Area Affects T
Cit A Aff t Transport U
t Use
100
Transport
Energy
80

60

40

20

0
0 200 400 600 800 Ar e a 1000 City Area
Source: Cities, Area and Transport Energy.
B Hughes et al, 26th ATRF, October 2003

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 City Area is a major determinant of
transport
 transport energy
 car use
 transport emissions

 In principle, if population increases within
urban boundaries no extra travel occurs
boundaries,
 Australians are in love with their cars,
,
but they are more in love with their own land

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Our Transport Future?

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Our Transport Future
 By 2050 transport emissions will comprise more than 66% of
Australia’s entire greenhouse gas emissions target
 Transport congestion costs are increasing at a faster rate than
traffic is increasing
 heavy vehicle transport congestion costs will increase by an
additional 100%
 traffic congestion in cities will cost $20-30 billion annually by 2020
 Road trauma will deteriorate
 road deaths are not decreasing
 serious injuries caused by road crashes is rising
 deaths caused by articulated vehicles is increasing,
 serious injuries caused by articulated vehicles is not decreasing
 Other factors such as health effects, transport costs and travel
time are certain to increase

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Rail Deterioration
R il D t i ti
Track
Locomotive Age Cumulative
Rolling Stock Number Total
Diesel
- locomotives, wagons 100%
Electric

Signalling 500 Average
Age
80%

Average
Aus > 30
Information Age
USA 8
Years
60%

Years
- data, methods, 250 40%

analysis, research
l i h 20%

Organisational Capacity 0
less than 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30 more
0%

- government & railways 5 years years years years years years than 30
years

- staff skill & numbers

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Rail’s Energy and Environmental
Advantage
g

Freight Transport Energy Efficiency

Passenger Transport Energy Intensity

Source:
Final Garnaut Report, 2008

Source: ARA Industry Report 2007
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Rail Benefits
 Passenger and freight rail provides a numerous benefits to the Australian community,
business and the environment including:
– supporting regional communities
– reducing community health effects
– minimising environmental consequences
– reducing the road toll by reducing crashes
– limiting local government road maintenance
– limiting road investment demands on Treasuries
– improving international competitiveness for agriculture
– reducing road infrastructure costs for state government road authorities
– maintaining robust transport systems to suit a variety of futures, including reduced oil
availability.
 A efficient, effective, safe t
An ffi i t ff ti f transport system i required t meet A t li ' short and
t t is i d to t Australia's h t d
long term needs
 Compared with historical practice, passenger and freight rail must take a much larger
proportion of land transport in Australia
 To do so requires many and diverse industry and government activities at
substantially higher levels than have occurred previously
 However, rail transport is not for its own sake and must be justified against
, p j g
alternatives

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Benefits from Rail Investment

 Annual 3.8 to 6.2 Mt CO2-e emissions reductions
 11% lower transport emissions by 2030
 Total benefits
$27.4 41.7b
$27 4 to 41 7b
(NPV 2010 -2020)

Source: Transforming Rail: A Key Element in Australia’s Low Pollution Future
CRC for Rail Innovation 2009
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There is nothing a Government hates more
than to be well-informed;
well informed;
for it makes the process of arriving at
decisions much more complicated and
difficult.
Keynes

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Climate Change Management
Climate
Change Mitigation

Activity Impact on Systems Responses

Government Networks Government policy
Business Operations Business practice
Community Demand User behaviour

Adaptation

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Climate Change Management
Climate
Change

Activity Impact on Systems Responses

Government Networks Government policy
Business Operations Business practice
Community Demand User behaviour

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Transport and the Carbon Economy

 Travel / Transport less
 Burn less carbon
 more efficient transport & modes
 more efficient vehicles
 more efficient energy sources

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Market Issues of an Emissions
Trading Scheme
g
 Market principles
 Market failures
 Poor information
 Natural monopoly
E t
Externalities
liti
 Social objectives (eg income distribution or service
quality)
So, other strong policies are needed to complement the Emissions
Trading Scheme
CRC f R il I
for Rail Innovation, 2009
ti

Emissions trading on its own does not work;
it needs other actions
Allan Jones - CEO, London Climate Change Agency
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Transport Emissions Market
Distortions
 Car driver's costs will not change, but rail public transport costs will increase
 Road freight charges will not change, but rail freight costs will increase
 ETS charges are not market linked to public transport
- pricing (fares) which may be constrained by political choices and economic regulation
- infrastructure charges and provision (ie users pay for infrastructure but don't have
choices about where improvements are made)
 Car owners costs are discounted by tax rebates or payments by others (business)
 The general community has responded to the market by purchasing small cars, while
government (and business to a lesser extent) has not. In other words governments are not
responding to the market.
 Businesses will transfer their increased costs to consumers who have no influence over
business costs ("Take it or leave it"). So business does not always have much incentive to
reduce emissions costs. Governments have even less management incentive
 Commercial drivers are often distant from the usage costs. So a truck or LCV driver can
drive in a very fuel inefficient manner and receive no penalty so there is no incentive to
change
 Car and truck ET charges are rebated, but freight and passenger railways pay full costs
 Road freight pricing is flawed
 Road pricing not market linked to infrastructure supply

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Emissions Adaptation and Transport
Governments have a major role to play in lowering
the economic costs of adjustment to higher oil
prices, an emissions price and population
growth, through planning for more compact
urban forms and rail and public transport.
p p

Mode shift may account for a quarter of emissions
y q
reductions in urban passenger transport,
lowering the cost of transition and delivering
multiple benefits to the community.
(Professor Ross Garnaut, Final Report Sept 2008)
Garnaut Report,

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Government Objectives

 A national rail freight network
development of our rail networks so that
p
more freight can be moved by rail
 Transforming our cities
increasing public transport capacity in our
cities and making better use of existing
transport infrastructure
(Infrastructure Australia, May 2009)

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Where is A t li T
Wh i Australian Transport
t
Going?
g
 Performance
Criteria
C it i
 Capacity /
utilisation
tili ti
 Speed
 Safety

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Policy Tool Selection

Engineers
Economists
Regulators

Desirable? Necessary?
Valuable? Sufficient?
Integrated, complementary or conflicting?
Are there better alternatives?
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Believing as I do, …
that market forces deliver
the lowest cost and most effective solution
g ,
to economic challenges,...

So what about:
 Government infrastructure fundingg
 regulation
 subsidies
 information, education and marketing
 research,
research training and innovation
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A New Planning Paradigm
Current Perspective New Planning Paradigm
• microanalysis • strategic
• short term • holistic
• narrow focused • long term
How do we
• detailed / How do we • broad
improve provide
fragmented what we’ve •i t
integrated
t d what we
• historical got? • multifaceted need?
• quantitative • future oriented
• separate mode view
t d i • qualitative & quantitative
• infrastructure solutions • customer view
• commodity view • logistics chain analysis
g y
• incremental & evolutionary • quantum change &
• environmental & social revolutionary
benefits largely ignored
g y g • environmental & social
benefits described
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“the mystery of Government is not how it
works,
works but how to make it stop”.
stop

P.J. O’Rourke

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Government Weaknesses
p
Leadership
 No major policy improvements since truck charging and rail
commercialisation in 1990’s

Policy, Strategy and Pl
P li St t d Planning
i
 Commonwealth Major Cities Unit
 WA grain rail reform

Co-operation
 eg State - Commonwealth State v State
Commonwealth,

Research
Capability
 Skills, knowledge and experience
 D t and i f
Data d information
ti
 Number of people
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Rail Industry Weaknesses
Leadership
 eg continuous reorganisation
Policy Strategy and Planning
Policy,
 eg typical 4 year business outlook
Capability
 eg transport economists
Research
Co operation
Co-operation
 eg national working rules

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Economic Opportunities

Further investment
Incentives & taxation reform
Reducing regulatory burden
Legislation

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Transport Economics Research for
Treasury
 FBT reform
 eliminate perverse incentives to drive further
 Charge for cars for congestion
 Reform truck charges
 Improve accuracy (eg road use damage relationship)
 Include congestion
 Eliminate undercharging of heavily used
vehicles
 Include unpriced externalities
Source: A Conceptual Framework for the Reform of Taxes Related to Roads and Transport,
Clarke and Prentice, Prepared for the Treasury, Canberra, June 2009
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Canberra’s View of WA
A cash cow
Doesn’t understand
Much greater challenges on East Coast
 Economic
(eg fiscal limitations)
 Transport pressures
(demand, performance, consequences, asset age, etc)
 Geographic challenges
(topography, close towns, sandstone, etc)
 Political
(sensitivity and size)
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Personal Perspectives

WA is doing very well
 economically
 transport policy, planning & practice
Don’t believe all the advocacy
 (where's the money?)
( y )
Hyperactive policy
 Engineers Make it Happen

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Transport Safety Future?

Upward Pressures Downward Influences
 transport demand
p  vehicle safety
y
 vehicle power  infrastructure quality
 driver attitudes  safety awareness
y
 treatment costs

Uncertainties
 diminishing returns
g
 congestion
 enforcement

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Transport Safety Policy
'Externality' assessment
'E t lit ' t
Historical analysis
Incident investigations
No recent reform
Micro-policy perspective,
Mi li ti
not mainstream policy
Exceptions
 WA 'Towards Zero'
Towards Zero
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Multi-disciplined

Strong analytical base

Independent

Multimodal

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Curtin-
Curtin-Monash Accident Research Centre

School f P bli H lth
S h l of Public Health,
Curtin University of Technology
GPO Box U1987, PERTH 6845, Western Australia
Ph: (08) 9266 9591 email: Brett.Hughes@curtin.edu.au
See www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au for more information

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Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes

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Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes