Forecasting of Damage Length of Maritime Structures Caused by Typhoons Based on Improved CP Method

The coastal embankment system has been gradually built during the last 40 years. The embankments were originally designed to increase agricultural production by preventing salt water intrusion not to protect against cyclonic storms. The alignment of the embankments did not consider the changing conditions in bathymetry of the sea and thalweg migration of the rivers and therefore many embankments are located under tidal water level and have severe toe and slope erosion problems during the monsoon season. The crest level and embankment cross sections have not optimized the protection of hinterland and the embankment itself and therefore the embankments typically only provide protection for the cyclones with 5-12 year return periods and the designed crest level of the sea facing coastal polder equal to the sum of normal maximum recorded water stage plus 1.50m. In this study to estimate the design crest level and side slope for sea facing embankment have been established based on maximum storm surge level, wave run-up for cyclonic wave, freeboard allowing 5 l/m/s overtopping ,potential climate change impact and land subsidence. Statistical analysis of surge level and wave run-up is carried out using Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) in MIKE Zero.

Tecnología Empresariales

International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos, Switzerland May 30 – June 3, 2010 Ryusuke Hashimura Department of EcoDesign, Sojo University, Japan Forecasting of Damage Length of Maritime Structures Caused by Typhoons Based on Improved CP METHOD

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object]

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object]

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD Fig.1 The 4 coastal regions locate in the Kumamoto Prefecture In Kumamoto Prefecture, the coasts face open and closed seas. The open sea is East China Sea. The closed seas are Ariake and Yatsushhiro seas.

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD Fig.1 The 4 coastal regions locate in the Kumamoto Prefecture In this paper, we divided the coastline into 4 coastal regions . Each coast has different topographical characteristics.

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD Fig. 3 Surrounded area including Kyushu Island All typhoons had passed through an area delineated by a latitude of 30 ° and 35°N and a longitude of 127˚ and 132°E in the past 25 years from 1980 to 2004. The number of typhoons passing through the delineated area is 74 .

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],Fig. 2 13 courses of typhoons

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fig. 2 13 courses of typhoons

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],The total length of damage induced by a coming typhoon for a coast can be estimated as follows:

IDRC 2010, Forecasting of Damage Length of MS by Improved CP METHOD ,[object Object],(3) Then the maximum sensitivity value of central pressure is determined from the path and the coast based on this table 2.

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