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RE AMP: NGO ROLES IN FINANCING (PRIMER AND
DISCUSSION)
Matthew H. Brown, Principal
Harcourt Brown & Carey
October 16, 2011




                                             Confidential
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION




                                                        RE AMP
• Perspective and Context on Financing Efficiency
• A Primer on Financing and Capital Sources




                             Confidential           2
WHY FINANCING??




                                                       RE AMP
• EE goals are getting more aggressive in some
  places.
• Rebates and tax incentives may not be the most
  cost effective way to do the job.
   • Leveraged, private capital may be much more
     effective. IF it is designed effectively.
• The trend towards tougher lighting standards
  mean that utilities will no longer have the least
  costly option available to them to reach EE goals.
• Cost effectiveness tests are getting more
  challenging.
• Ratepayers are getting more sensitive to higher
  rates.
SOME PERSPECTIVE




                                                                     RE AMP
• Financing is Important.
   • It is a valuable marketing tool for energy efficiency.
   • It makes energy efficiency investment possible.

• While literature is difficult to find on the effect of financing
  on contractors’ ability to “close” an energy efficiency deal,
  anecdotal evidence is that the influence is strong.
   • Close rates for a typical contractor deal are about 30%-
      40%.
   • Close rates can increase by 20-30% from that number
      with attractive financing.
   • Interviews indicate that financing is one important factor
      that encourages people to make energy efficiency
      investments.

                                                                 4
SOME PERSPECTIVE




                                                       RE AMP
• Almost no one wants financing.
• But people want the stuff that financing lets them
  buy (granite countertops, furnaces, cars, homes…)
• So:
     • Financing is NOT a silver bullet
     • Financing is a means to facilitate an end.
       Make financing seamlessly easy to access.
     • Financing programs need to be tightly
       integrated into every other element of
       marketing, rebates, etc.
Financing Strengths and Weaknesses




                                                                                          RE AMP
Strengths                                     Weaknesses
Allows leverage of public or utility          Not all consumers have access to finance
ratepayer funds through credit                because of credit quality
enhancements to attract private capital
Significantly increases the amount of total Even consumers who may have good
capital available by attracting new capital credit may not want to take on new debt
sources to fund EE.
Provides for “skin in the game” from          Cost, time and labor intensive to
borrowers                                     originate, service loans
Sustainability: Extends the life of limited   Requires careful design to price risk and
government utility ratepayer funds and        figure out who bears credit risks and
may remove need for rebates in long run       other features
Can complement rebate programs




                                                                                      6
PRIMER ON FINANCING ROLES AND FUNCTIONS




                                                                    RE AMP
         Enhance                                    Security
         •Loss Reserve                              •Tax lien
         •Debt Service Reserve                      •Mortgage
         •Loan Insurance                            •Fixture lien
         •Sub Loans          Sources:
                                                    •At the meter
               Who Lends?•Federal                   •Unsecured
                  •State -•Foundations
                            energy office
                           •Utilities
                           - HFA
                  •Utility
  Lend                                      Repay
                  •Finance company
                                            •On Bill
                  •Bank
                                            •Property Tax
                  •Credit Union
                  •CDFI                     •Other Fee
                                            •3rd Party
          Capital Sources
          •Banks
          •Credit Unions
          •Foundations
          •Bonding
          •Federal
          •Treasury
          •Utilities
          •Institutional Investors
WHAT IS THE ONE DETERMINANT OF RATE, TERMS AND AVAILABILITY OF CAPITAL?




                                                                              RE AMP
• Every investor is going to decide whether to invest on the
  basis of analysis of credit.
• While other factors are important, credit is critical.




                                    Confidential                          8
MEASURING CREDIT
There are many measures of credit such as:


               Residential                           Commercial**
        FICO Score                       Investment Grade Rating
        Debt-Income Ratio                Years in Business
        Bankruptcy/Tax Lien              Paydex/D&B/Other rating
        Home Equity                      Quality of Principals’ Credit




    **Particular measure will depend on size of the business (eg.
    Small businesses almost never have a rating).




                                      Confidential                       9
NATIONAL DATA: CREDIT SCORE DISTRIBUTIONS




                                                                      RE AMP
Percentile   % of People      Score      Delinquency Rate Projected
                                             (Based on historical
                                                performance)
   2nd           2%          300-499                87%
   7th           5%          500-549                71%
   15th          8%          550-599                51%
   27th         12%          600-649                31%
  42nd          15%          650-699                15%
   60th         18%          700-749                 5%
   87th         27%          750-799                 2%
  100th         13%          800-850                 1%



                                 58% of people above 700 FICO
                                 (TransUnion). 73% of people above
                                 650 FICO.                     10
KEYSTONE HELP HISTORICAL CREDIT DATA




                                                                                   RE AMP
                  Original      Current       Wtd Avg. Cum. Charge Cum. C/O +
      Band        Balance       Balance      Debt-Income  Off        90 DPD

      <649        $826,686      $493,800        35.9       4.33%      7.15%

    650-699      $6,001,189    $4,122,119       37.4       1.51%      3.52%

    700-749      $11,762,134   $8,114,884       37.7       0.75%      1.41%

    750-799      $16,011,449   $10,004,326      34.0       0.23%      0.71%

      800+       $7,507,019    $5,238,058       30.8       0.03%      0.03%


   Grand Total   $42,108,477   $27,973,187      35.0       0.60%      1.31%



                                                                              11
MARKET SIZE BY CREDIT SCORE – BASED ON NATIONAL 61 MILLION OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLDS




                                                                                            OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLDS
                                                                                            MARKET SIZE BY CREDIT SCORE: BASED ON 61 MILLION
Cumulative # of       % of People           Score                 Delinquency Rate
Households                                                        Projected
    56 Million               15%                    650-699               15%
    44 Million               18%                    700-749               5%
    21 Million               27%                    750-799               2%
    10 Million               13%                    800-850               1%




  56 Million owner-occupied households would have a credit score good enough
  to minimally qualify for a loan (although credit score is one among many
  factors).




                                                                                       12
RISK AND FINANCING




                                                                              RE AMP
                  Residential        Commercial      Outcome
   Low Risk       • FICO score >     • Investment
                    640/680            Grade
                  • Debt-Income      • 2+ years in
                    Ratio no           business          Financing
                    more than        • Stable            available
                    50%                business
                  • No                 environment
                    bankruptcy       • Good
                  • Home equity        management
                                     • Paydex etc
   High Risk                                         Financing may
                                                     be available, but
                                                     at high cost
   Unmeasurable                                      No financing
   Risk                                              available


                                   Confidential                          13
SOME OTHER FACTORS




                                                                                           RE AMP
• Time Horizon:
      • Banks want to be in and out of an investment in 3-5 years.
            • This time horizon mitigates their risk; trying to predict the world beyond
               that time frame is hard.
            • Unless they have some kind of security (a secured loan) that gives them
               ability to foreclose on a residential property. Business loans rarely go
               beyond 5 years.
            • Bonds may go beyond that period, but are generally for investment grade
               only.
• Regulatory Compliance
      • State and federal regulators (through law and regulation) often:
           • Place a cap on certain kinds of assets a bank or other investor can hold
               (eg. No more than x% unsecured loans)
           • Prohibit certain types of companies from holding some asset classes (eg.
               Credit Union Service Organizations cannot hold unsecured loans,
               although credit unions can).
           • Require that financial institutions place cash reserves aside to cover the
               eventuality of loss from certain types of loans.
           • Etc. etc. etc.
      • Regulations and the willingness of regulators to allow financial institutions to
          hold the kinds of financial instruments that we are discussing will often
          dictate what a financial institution can or cannot do in this field.


                                          Confidential                                14
WHICH INVESTORS WILL TAKE A LOWER RETURN FOR A GIVEN RISK IN




                                                                    RE AMP
             ORDER TO “DO THE RIGHT THING”?




Less                                                      More




                                                               15
WHAT’S AVAILABLE RIGHT NOW?
Residential                                 Commercial
Fannie Mae                                  Products available depend heavily on
              15%+ risk adjusted rate,      credit of company and size of company.
              no contractor buydown         Rated companies have access to low cost
              available. Up to 10 year      capital on their own, through traditional
              term.                         routes. Lease financing is common
                                            because many leases can stay off the
Wells Fargo/GE Money                        host company’s balance sheet.
              24% rate, risk adjusted,
              bought down by                However lease rules are changing, and
              contractor, term usu. 5       new methods of financing equipment
              years. Buy-down adds 8-       purchase will become important to
              10% to cost of project.       locate. Energy service agreements may
                                            be the wave of the future for commercial
                                            property owners. Availability is subject
                                            to accounting rules.




                                         Confidential                              16
CHARACTERIZING EE FROM A FINANCIAL INSTITUTION PERSPECTIVE
• EE is:
      • Niche and small
         • For the most part residential EE loans are tiny ($7,500)
         • And total portfolios do not grow quickly or dependably
           enough to the size that interests big investors.
      • New
         • Meaning that most investors see don’t see them as a
           distinct asset class (which I think they are at least in
           residential), but view them like any other investment.
      • Low return and high transaction cost
         • Most of us want single-digit interest rates.
         • Transaction costs = $300-$600 to originate plus
           $10/loan/month, or $600 to service. $1,200 on a
           $7,500 loan is tough.

                                 Confidential                         17
CHARACTERIZING EE FROM A FINANCIAL INSTITUTION PERSPECTIVE
• EE is:
      • Requiring thought and a good deal of work.
         • It’s not a standard, run of the mill product –
             QECBs, PowerSaver, loan loss reserves etc. Are
             tough.
• Therefore:
      • We need to work with the combination of players who
         will be able to:
         • Bring enough capital to the table
         • Be innovative and willing to think through details
         • Spend the time to understand the risks
      • And we need regulations that allow for:
         • Use of credit enhancements with ratepayer funds
         • Ability to consider on bill structures (but not
             requiring them).
                                                             18
CREDIT UNIONS
                                                 Moderate to High regulatory
                                                 compliance burden

                                                 Generally not big risk-takers
                           Includes:
Capital Sources            • Community Banks
•Banks                     • Regional Banks      Generally not big innovators –
•Credit Unions             • Money Center        slow to enter new markets and
•Foundations                   Banks             can be slow to make decisions
•Bonding                                         (esp. big banks).
•Federal
•Treasury                                        Low return requirements if credit
•Utilities                                       is well-understood. High return
•Institutional Investors                         (or unwillingness to lend) if credit
                                                 is not understood.

                                                 Community, “mission”
                                                 motivation varies, depending on
                                                 bank size and location(money
                                                 center, regional, community
                                                 banks). Often not strong.

                                  Confidential                                    19
BANK-BASED PROGRAM: MASSACHUSETTS




                                                      RE AMP
• Utilities cover defaults on loans (but do not
  originate or service loans).
• Participating banks offer a 5% loan with a
  minimum FICO score of 650.
• Loan terms up to 24 months for small loans (up to
  $2,000).
• Terms go to 7 years for loans up to $15,000.
• Loan products for large residential and large C&I
  under development.
• Negotiations conducted directly with the
              Mass Bankers Association.
CREDIT UNIONS
                                                   Moderate regulatory compliance
                                                   burden

                                                   Willing to take on new projects if
                           Fast-changing           they align with mission.
Capital Sources            industry
•Banks                     (decreasing by
•Credit Unions             300 each year)          Tremendous variability, but some
•Foundations               while total             are willing to take on new
•Bonding                   lending stays           products even if they require
•Federal                   steady. A mix of        significant work.
•Treasury                  traditional, old
•Utilities                 CUs and more            Low return requirements if credit
•Institutional Investors   ambitious new           is well-understood. High return
                           ones.                   (or unwillingness to lend) if credit
                                                   is not understood.

                                                   Community motivation varies,
                                                   depending on bank size and
                                                   location(money center, regional,
                                                   community banks).

                                    Confidential                                    21
MICHIGAN SAVES: CREDIT UNIONS




                                                      MICHIGAN SAVES
• 60 million loan facility based on $3 million loan
  loss reserve .
• 7% rate to borrower.
• 10 year max loan term.
• 640 and a higher FICO score required (about 56%
  of MI population qualifies).
• Marketed through a contractor network.
• Launched Sept 2010.
   • 56% approval rate. $3.5 million in loans made
     thus far.
FOUNDATIONS
                                                 In addition to grants,
                                                 Foundations make Program
                                                 Related Investments (PRI)

                           Consist of:           PRIs need to be consistent with
Capital Sources            • Local
•Banks                                           the Foundation mission
                           • Regional and
•Credit Unions                National
•Foundations                                     PRIs are investments of capital,
•Bonding                                         and while foundations may be
•Federal                                         willing to take some additional
•Treasury                                        risk, their risk appetite is quite
•Utilities                                       limited.
•Institutional Investors
                                                 Foundations may also be willing
                                                 to put up balance sheet coverage
                                                 for some investments.

                                                 Multiple foundations are now
                                                 investigating ways to put up
                                                 Foundation capital in EE.

                                  Confidential                                    23
MACED (KENTUCKY)




                                                                     RE AMP
• MACED, a Community Development Financial Institution
  (CDFI), received a grant from the Ford Foundation.
• MACED then made loans to cooperative utilities that agreed
  to pay those loans back to MACED.
• The utilities created an on-bill financing structure for energy
  efficiency retrofits in homes.
      • Utilities install energy efficiency measures as part of
         their essential services to customers.
      • Utilities can disconnect customers for non-payment.




                               Confidential                     24
BONDS
                                                 Bond investors require the same
                                                 credit quality as any other
                                                 investor.

                           Consist of:           Certain types of bonds offer
Capital Sources            • Taxable
•Banks                                           government-subsidized interest
                           • Tax Exempt          rates – eg. Qualified Energy
•Credit Unions             • Tax Credit          Conservation Bonds.
•Foundations
•Bonding
•Federal                                         Bonds offer access to long-term
•Treasury                                        capital – generally significantly
•Utilities                                       longer term than is available
•Institutional Investors                         from a bank loan.

                                                 Bonds rarely make sense for less
                                                 than about $1,000,000, given
                                                 issuance costs.




                                  Confidential                                   25
BOND FINANCING EXAMPLE: ST. LOUIS COUNTY
• St. Louis County issued Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds
  (QECBs) in amount of $6,000,000.
• Interest rate on bonds was ____.
• St. Louis County takes credit risk on the bonds, and
  guarantees the repayment through an annual appropriation
  (not quite as strong as a blanket guarantee that isn’t subject
  to annual appropriation).
• Federal government subsidizes the bond interest rate by
  paying the County 70% of an index (or between 3% and
  3.5%).
• Volume in the first month was ____.
• We are working on establishing a similar program, but
  marrying QECBs with FHA PowerSaver, in Salt Lake County.

                               Confidential                    26
QECBS: HOW DO THEY WORK?
                                                Federal
                                              Government

                                                   70% of interest


                        30% of interest and
Issuer (State/Local     100% of principal
   Government
      Entity)                                  Investor
                      QECB principal (loan)




 EE / GHG Reduction
       Project




                                                                     27
(QECBS)
    BONDS
                 ATION
                 CONSERV
                 D ENERGY
                 QUALIFIE
                 SOURCE:
                 CAPITAL
         State         QECB Allocation             State       QECB Allocation
Alabama                            48.4    New Hampshire                    13.7
Alaska                               7.1   New Jersey                       90.1
Arizona                            67.4    New Mexico                       20.6
Arkanasas                          29.6    New York                       202.2
California                        381.3    North Carolina                   95.7
Colorado                           51.2    North Dakota                      6.7
Connecticut                        36.6    Ohio                           119.2
Delaware                             9.1   Oklahoma                         37.8
District of Columbia                 6.1   Oregon                           39.3
Florida                           190.1    Pennsylvania                   129.1
Georgia                           100.5    Rhode Island                     10.9
Hawaii                             13.4    South Carolina                   46.5
Idaho                              15.8    South Dakota                      8.3
Illinois                          133.8    Tennessee                        64.5
Indiana                            66.2    Texas                          252.4
Iowa                               31.2    Utah                             28.4
Kentucky                           44.3    Vermont                           6.4
Louisiana                          45.8    Virginia                         80.6
Maine                              13.7    West Virginia                    18.8
Maryland                           58.4    Washington                       67.9
Massachusetts                      67.4    Wisconsin                        58.4
Michigan                          103.8    Wyoming
Minnesota                          54.2
Mississippi                        30.5    American Samoa                   0.7
Missouri                           61.3    Guam                             1.8
Montana                            10.0    Northern Marianas                0.9
Nebraska                           18.5    Puerto Rico                     41.0
Nevada                             27.0    US Virgin Islands                1.1
                                                                                   28
UTILITY FUNDING




                                                                                        RE AMP
                                                 Typically will view lending and
                                                 financing as outside their
                                                 purview.

                           Consist of:           Generally not big risk-takers, but
Capital Sources            • IOUs
•Banks                                           IOUs will respond to a regulatory
                           • Public Power        mandate, esp. with cost
•Credit Unions             • Cooperative         recovery. Coops and Munis can
•Foundations
                                                 often be greater risk-takers.
•Bonding
•Federal
•Treasury                                        Public power and coops often
•Utilities                                       very high on the “mission-based”
•Institutional Investors                         scale. IOUs vary.
                                                 Mission: Depends on utility type
                                                 and need but generally view EE
                                                 as secondary and financing as a
                                                 bother.




                                  Confidential                                     29
MIDWEST ENERGY




                                                RE AMP
• Tariff-based; obligation passes with meter.
   • 3% for most loans.
   • 15 years for residential.
   • 10 years for commercial.
   • Capital source: utility, ARRA.
   • Disconnection for failure to pay.
   • Financing charges cannot exceed 90% of
     average annual energy savings.
   • About 500 projects completed worth $2.5
     million.
   • 0 defaults as far as known.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS




                                                                                        RE AMP
                                                 Risk Averse

                                                 Regulated: Cannot typically
                                                 invest in non-rated securities (eg.
                           Consist of:           unrated loan portfolios)
Capital Sources            • Pension Funds
•Banks                     • Insurance
•Credit Unions                Companies          Typically require large
•Foundations               • Other Large         investments before even thinking
•Bonding                      Investors          about investing.
•Federal
•Treasury                                        Residential appetite: Unless
•Utilities                                       secured and bundled in large
•Institutional Investors                         quantities, almost 0.

                                                 Commercial appetite: For
                                                 large, rated deals: signifiant.




                                  Confidential                                     31
BANK/UTILITY: ILLINOIS




                                                                RE AMP
• Legislation required utilities to develop efficiency
  financing programs -- $2.5 million each utility for a
  statewide total of $12.5 million.
• Utility ratepayers would cover 100% of defaults.
• A 3rd party entity conducts all loan origination and
  servicing. Capital source is still uncertain. Loan terms
  TBD. Contract awarded but not public.
• Program size is limited to $12.5 million statewide.

•   Banks’ perspective:
      • Small, at $12.5 million
      • Looked only at credit of the utilities.
      • If they had had to look at individual credit, would
        not have done the program.
      • A program similar to this could be of interest to
        institutional investors – although it is too small to
        be of great interest.
FUNDS FLOW: SMALL LOANS <$20,000




                                                                                    CREDIT UNIONS
             Capital-      Non-CU and
Funding
            Providing     Subordinated
Pool
          Credit Unions     Investors

                                                                         HB&C


                          Green Energy
                             CUSO


                           Origination                                     Loss
                          and Servicing                                   Reserve
                                         Full Loan
                                         Origination/Servicing




                                                            Approved
                                                           Contractors
                            Property
                            Owners
CAPITAL SOURCE: COMMERCIAL BANKS
-      Bank that provides general business banking services – transactional, savings,
       mortgages
-      Generally do not provide energy efficiency-specific products, but do finance
       mortgages and underwrite loans
-      Generally focused on short-term lending

    Major Firms          Risk Tolerance         Involvement in the EE   Opportunities
                                                sector


    Bank of America,     Relatively low         •   Financing ESCo      •   Secondary market
    Wells Fargo, U.S.                               contracts for           development would
    Bank, Capital One,                              MUSH clients            encourage
    Comerica                                    •   EE mortgages            involvement
                                                •   SBA loans           •   Standardizing and
                                                                            pooling loans




                                                                                                34
CAPITAL SOURCE: INVESTMENT BANKS
-      Bank that enables corporations and/or governmental institutions to raise capital via
       stock or bond sales. Also manages sales and trading of securities, and generally house
       an asset management group.
-      Investment banks are the intermediaries for bond financing (including QECBs)
-      Have historically eschewed EE because deal size was too small, security was weak and
       loans were non-standard


    Major Firms              Risk Tolerance            Involvement in    Opportunities
                                                       the EE sector

    Goldman Sachs, JP        Depends on group          - Early loan      -   Secondary market
    Morgan, Morgan           within the bank, can be   pooling efforts       development would
    Stanley, UBS, Merrill    low to high                                     encourage involvement
    Lynch, Citi, Deutsche                                                -   Partnerships with
    Bank, Barclays, Credit                                                   financing companies (e.g.
    Suisse, plus regional                                                    Ygrene Energy Fund +
    firms                                                                    Barclays, Hannon
                                                                             Armstrong and Metris)


                                                                                                         35
CAPITAL SOURCE: BONDS
•   Project cost greater than $800,000
•   Expected useful life of assets being financed is greater than 5 years
•   District has enough cash flow (i.e. net revenues) to pay debt service
•   Other lower cost sources of financing are not available




                                                                            36
(QECBS)
               BONDS
                             ATION
                             CONSERV
                             D ENERGY
                             QUALIFIE
                             SOURCE:
                             CAPITAL
National bond volume cap for QECBs: $3.2 billion
Annual cash subsidy: 70% of interest costs
Structure: Originally a tax credit bond, QECBs were converted to cash subsidy bonds in March 2010.
    This means a larger investor pool and lower rates on QECBs.
Qualified purposes: Reducing energy in publicly-owned buildings by at least 20%; green community
   programs (including loans and grants to implement such programs); rural renewable energy; any
   qualified renewable energy facility; research on cellulosic ethanol, carbon sequestration, fuel
   efficiency, car batteries or building efficiency; mass transit facilities, demonstration projects, public
   education campaigns for energy efficiency.
Eligible issuers: Cities, political subdivisions and conduit issuers
Use of available project proceeds: 100% used for capital expenditures for qualified conservation
    purposes
Allocation of volume cap: Allocated among states in proportion to the population, then allocated by
    population to cities and counties of more than 100,000.
Private activity bonds: Up to 30% of each state or large local government allocation may be issued as
    private activity bonds, , where proceeds of the QECBs are loaned to non-governmental entities and
    used for energy conservation improvements on privately owned property. Private activity bonds
    may only be issued to finance capital expenditures.
Issuance date: No expiration, proceeds must be spent within three years of issuance
IRS notice on QECBs guidance: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-09-29.pdf

                                                                                                               37

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Re amp october 2011 1

  • 1. RE AMP: NGO ROLES IN FINANCING (PRIMER AND DISCUSSION) Matthew H. Brown, Principal Harcourt Brown & Carey October 16, 2011 Confidential
  • 2. OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION RE AMP • Perspective and Context on Financing Efficiency • A Primer on Financing and Capital Sources Confidential 2
  • 3. WHY FINANCING?? RE AMP • EE goals are getting more aggressive in some places. • Rebates and tax incentives may not be the most cost effective way to do the job. • Leveraged, private capital may be much more effective. IF it is designed effectively. • The trend towards tougher lighting standards mean that utilities will no longer have the least costly option available to them to reach EE goals. • Cost effectiveness tests are getting more challenging. • Ratepayers are getting more sensitive to higher rates.
  • 4. SOME PERSPECTIVE RE AMP • Financing is Important. • It is a valuable marketing tool for energy efficiency. • It makes energy efficiency investment possible. • While literature is difficult to find on the effect of financing on contractors’ ability to “close” an energy efficiency deal, anecdotal evidence is that the influence is strong. • Close rates for a typical contractor deal are about 30%- 40%. • Close rates can increase by 20-30% from that number with attractive financing. • Interviews indicate that financing is one important factor that encourages people to make energy efficiency investments. 4
  • 5. SOME PERSPECTIVE RE AMP • Almost no one wants financing. • But people want the stuff that financing lets them buy (granite countertops, furnaces, cars, homes…) • So: • Financing is NOT a silver bullet • Financing is a means to facilitate an end. Make financing seamlessly easy to access. • Financing programs need to be tightly integrated into every other element of marketing, rebates, etc.
  • 6. Financing Strengths and Weaknesses RE AMP Strengths Weaknesses Allows leverage of public or utility Not all consumers have access to finance ratepayer funds through credit because of credit quality enhancements to attract private capital Significantly increases the amount of total Even consumers who may have good capital available by attracting new capital credit may not want to take on new debt sources to fund EE. Provides for “skin in the game” from Cost, time and labor intensive to borrowers originate, service loans Sustainability: Extends the life of limited Requires careful design to price risk and government utility ratepayer funds and figure out who bears credit risks and may remove need for rebates in long run other features Can complement rebate programs 6
  • 7. PRIMER ON FINANCING ROLES AND FUNCTIONS RE AMP Enhance Security •Loss Reserve •Tax lien •Debt Service Reserve •Mortgage •Loan Insurance •Fixture lien •Sub Loans Sources: •At the meter Who Lends?•Federal •Unsecured •State -•Foundations energy office •Utilities - HFA •Utility Lend Repay •Finance company •On Bill •Bank •Property Tax •Credit Union •CDFI •Other Fee •3rd Party Capital Sources •Banks •Credit Unions •Foundations •Bonding •Federal •Treasury •Utilities •Institutional Investors
  • 8. WHAT IS THE ONE DETERMINANT OF RATE, TERMS AND AVAILABILITY OF CAPITAL? RE AMP • Every investor is going to decide whether to invest on the basis of analysis of credit. • While other factors are important, credit is critical. Confidential 8
  • 9. MEASURING CREDIT There are many measures of credit such as: Residential Commercial** FICO Score Investment Grade Rating Debt-Income Ratio Years in Business Bankruptcy/Tax Lien Paydex/D&B/Other rating Home Equity Quality of Principals’ Credit **Particular measure will depend on size of the business (eg. Small businesses almost never have a rating). Confidential 9
  • 10. NATIONAL DATA: CREDIT SCORE DISTRIBUTIONS RE AMP Percentile % of People Score Delinquency Rate Projected (Based on historical performance) 2nd 2% 300-499 87% 7th 5% 500-549 71% 15th 8% 550-599 51% 27th 12% 600-649 31% 42nd 15% 650-699 15% 60th 18% 700-749 5% 87th 27% 750-799 2% 100th 13% 800-850 1% 58% of people above 700 FICO (TransUnion). 73% of people above 650 FICO. 10
  • 11. KEYSTONE HELP HISTORICAL CREDIT DATA RE AMP Original Current Wtd Avg. Cum. Charge Cum. C/O + Band Balance Balance Debt-Income Off 90 DPD <649 $826,686 $493,800 35.9 4.33% 7.15% 650-699 $6,001,189 $4,122,119 37.4 1.51% 3.52% 700-749 $11,762,134 $8,114,884 37.7 0.75% 1.41% 750-799 $16,011,449 $10,004,326 34.0 0.23% 0.71% 800+ $7,507,019 $5,238,058 30.8 0.03% 0.03% Grand Total $42,108,477 $27,973,187 35.0 0.60% 1.31% 11
  • 12. MARKET SIZE BY CREDIT SCORE – BASED ON NATIONAL 61 MILLION OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLDS OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLDS MARKET SIZE BY CREDIT SCORE: BASED ON 61 MILLION Cumulative # of % of People Score Delinquency Rate Households Projected 56 Million 15% 650-699 15% 44 Million 18% 700-749 5% 21 Million 27% 750-799 2% 10 Million 13% 800-850 1% 56 Million owner-occupied households would have a credit score good enough to minimally qualify for a loan (although credit score is one among many factors). 12
  • 13. RISK AND FINANCING RE AMP Residential Commercial Outcome Low Risk • FICO score > • Investment 640/680 Grade • Debt-Income • 2+ years in Ratio no business Financing more than • Stable available 50% business • No environment bankruptcy • Good • Home equity management • Paydex etc High Risk Financing may be available, but at high cost Unmeasurable No financing Risk available Confidential 13
  • 14. SOME OTHER FACTORS RE AMP • Time Horizon: • Banks want to be in and out of an investment in 3-5 years. • This time horizon mitigates their risk; trying to predict the world beyond that time frame is hard. • Unless they have some kind of security (a secured loan) that gives them ability to foreclose on a residential property. Business loans rarely go beyond 5 years. • Bonds may go beyond that period, but are generally for investment grade only. • Regulatory Compliance • State and federal regulators (through law and regulation) often: • Place a cap on certain kinds of assets a bank or other investor can hold (eg. No more than x% unsecured loans) • Prohibit certain types of companies from holding some asset classes (eg. Credit Union Service Organizations cannot hold unsecured loans, although credit unions can). • Require that financial institutions place cash reserves aside to cover the eventuality of loss from certain types of loans. • Etc. etc. etc. • Regulations and the willingness of regulators to allow financial institutions to hold the kinds of financial instruments that we are discussing will often dictate what a financial institution can or cannot do in this field. Confidential 14
  • 15. WHICH INVESTORS WILL TAKE A LOWER RETURN FOR A GIVEN RISK IN RE AMP ORDER TO “DO THE RIGHT THING”? Less More 15
  • 16. WHAT’S AVAILABLE RIGHT NOW? Residential Commercial Fannie Mae Products available depend heavily on 15%+ risk adjusted rate, credit of company and size of company. no contractor buydown Rated companies have access to low cost available. Up to 10 year capital on their own, through traditional term. routes. Lease financing is common because many leases can stay off the Wells Fargo/GE Money host company’s balance sheet. 24% rate, risk adjusted, bought down by However lease rules are changing, and contractor, term usu. 5 new methods of financing equipment years. Buy-down adds 8- purchase will become important to 10% to cost of project. locate. Energy service agreements may be the wave of the future for commercial property owners. Availability is subject to accounting rules. Confidential 16
  • 17. CHARACTERIZING EE FROM A FINANCIAL INSTITUTION PERSPECTIVE • EE is: • Niche and small • For the most part residential EE loans are tiny ($7,500) • And total portfolios do not grow quickly or dependably enough to the size that interests big investors. • New • Meaning that most investors see don’t see them as a distinct asset class (which I think they are at least in residential), but view them like any other investment. • Low return and high transaction cost • Most of us want single-digit interest rates. • Transaction costs = $300-$600 to originate plus $10/loan/month, or $600 to service. $1,200 on a $7,500 loan is tough. Confidential 17
  • 18. CHARACTERIZING EE FROM A FINANCIAL INSTITUTION PERSPECTIVE • EE is: • Requiring thought and a good deal of work. • It’s not a standard, run of the mill product – QECBs, PowerSaver, loan loss reserves etc. Are tough. • Therefore: • We need to work with the combination of players who will be able to: • Bring enough capital to the table • Be innovative and willing to think through details • Spend the time to understand the risks • And we need regulations that allow for: • Use of credit enhancements with ratepayer funds • Ability to consider on bill structures (but not requiring them). 18
  • 19. CREDIT UNIONS Moderate to High regulatory compliance burden Generally not big risk-takers Includes: Capital Sources • Community Banks •Banks • Regional Banks Generally not big innovators – •Credit Unions • Money Center slow to enter new markets and •Foundations Banks can be slow to make decisions •Bonding (esp. big banks). •Federal •Treasury Low return requirements if credit •Utilities is well-understood. High return •Institutional Investors (or unwillingness to lend) if credit is not understood. Community, “mission” motivation varies, depending on bank size and location(money center, regional, community banks). Often not strong. Confidential 19
  • 20. BANK-BASED PROGRAM: MASSACHUSETTS RE AMP • Utilities cover defaults on loans (but do not originate or service loans). • Participating banks offer a 5% loan with a minimum FICO score of 650. • Loan terms up to 24 months for small loans (up to $2,000). • Terms go to 7 years for loans up to $15,000. • Loan products for large residential and large C&I under development. • Negotiations conducted directly with the Mass Bankers Association.
  • 21. CREDIT UNIONS Moderate regulatory compliance burden Willing to take on new projects if Fast-changing they align with mission. Capital Sources industry •Banks (decreasing by •Credit Unions 300 each year) Tremendous variability, but some •Foundations while total are willing to take on new •Bonding lending stays products even if they require •Federal steady. A mix of significant work. •Treasury traditional, old •Utilities CUs and more Low return requirements if credit •Institutional Investors ambitious new is well-understood. High return ones. (or unwillingness to lend) if credit is not understood. Community motivation varies, depending on bank size and location(money center, regional, community banks). Confidential 21
  • 22. MICHIGAN SAVES: CREDIT UNIONS MICHIGAN SAVES • 60 million loan facility based on $3 million loan loss reserve . • 7% rate to borrower. • 10 year max loan term. • 640 and a higher FICO score required (about 56% of MI population qualifies). • Marketed through a contractor network. • Launched Sept 2010. • 56% approval rate. $3.5 million in loans made thus far.
  • 23. FOUNDATIONS In addition to grants, Foundations make Program Related Investments (PRI) Consist of: PRIs need to be consistent with Capital Sources • Local •Banks the Foundation mission • Regional and •Credit Unions National •Foundations PRIs are investments of capital, •Bonding and while foundations may be •Federal willing to take some additional •Treasury risk, their risk appetite is quite •Utilities limited. •Institutional Investors Foundations may also be willing to put up balance sheet coverage for some investments. Multiple foundations are now investigating ways to put up Foundation capital in EE. Confidential 23
  • 24. MACED (KENTUCKY) RE AMP • MACED, a Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI), received a grant from the Ford Foundation. • MACED then made loans to cooperative utilities that agreed to pay those loans back to MACED. • The utilities created an on-bill financing structure for energy efficiency retrofits in homes. • Utilities install energy efficiency measures as part of their essential services to customers. • Utilities can disconnect customers for non-payment. Confidential 24
  • 25. BONDS Bond investors require the same credit quality as any other investor. Consist of: Certain types of bonds offer Capital Sources • Taxable •Banks government-subsidized interest • Tax Exempt rates – eg. Qualified Energy •Credit Unions • Tax Credit Conservation Bonds. •Foundations •Bonding •Federal Bonds offer access to long-term •Treasury capital – generally significantly •Utilities longer term than is available •Institutional Investors from a bank loan. Bonds rarely make sense for less than about $1,000,000, given issuance costs. Confidential 25
  • 26. BOND FINANCING EXAMPLE: ST. LOUIS COUNTY • St. Louis County issued Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds (QECBs) in amount of $6,000,000. • Interest rate on bonds was ____. • St. Louis County takes credit risk on the bonds, and guarantees the repayment through an annual appropriation (not quite as strong as a blanket guarantee that isn’t subject to annual appropriation). • Federal government subsidizes the bond interest rate by paying the County 70% of an index (or between 3% and 3.5%). • Volume in the first month was ____. • We are working on establishing a similar program, but marrying QECBs with FHA PowerSaver, in Salt Lake County. Confidential 26
  • 27. QECBS: HOW DO THEY WORK? Federal Government 70% of interest 30% of interest and Issuer (State/Local 100% of principal Government Entity) Investor QECB principal (loan) EE / GHG Reduction Project 27
  • 28. (QECBS) BONDS ATION CONSERV D ENERGY QUALIFIE SOURCE: CAPITAL State QECB Allocation State QECB Allocation Alabama 48.4 New Hampshire 13.7 Alaska 7.1 New Jersey 90.1 Arizona 67.4 New Mexico 20.6 Arkanasas 29.6 New York 202.2 California 381.3 North Carolina 95.7 Colorado 51.2 North Dakota 6.7 Connecticut 36.6 Ohio 119.2 Delaware 9.1 Oklahoma 37.8 District of Columbia 6.1 Oregon 39.3 Florida 190.1 Pennsylvania 129.1 Georgia 100.5 Rhode Island 10.9 Hawaii 13.4 South Carolina 46.5 Idaho 15.8 South Dakota 8.3 Illinois 133.8 Tennessee 64.5 Indiana 66.2 Texas 252.4 Iowa 31.2 Utah 28.4 Kentucky 44.3 Vermont 6.4 Louisiana 45.8 Virginia 80.6 Maine 13.7 West Virginia 18.8 Maryland 58.4 Washington 67.9 Massachusetts 67.4 Wisconsin 58.4 Michigan 103.8 Wyoming Minnesota 54.2 Mississippi 30.5 American Samoa 0.7 Missouri 61.3 Guam 1.8 Montana 10.0 Northern Marianas 0.9 Nebraska 18.5 Puerto Rico 41.0 Nevada 27.0 US Virgin Islands 1.1 28
  • 29. UTILITY FUNDING RE AMP Typically will view lending and financing as outside their purview. Consist of: Generally not big risk-takers, but Capital Sources • IOUs •Banks IOUs will respond to a regulatory • Public Power mandate, esp. with cost •Credit Unions • Cooperative recovery. Coops and Munis can •Foundations often be greater risk-takers. •Bonding •Federal •Treasury Public power and coops often •Utilities very high on the “mission-based” •Institutional Investors scale. IOUs vary. Mission: Depends on utility type and need but generally view EE as secondary and financing as a bother. Confidential 29
  • 30. MIDWEST ENERGY RE AMP • Tariff-based; obligation passes with meter. • 3% for most loans. • 15 years for residential. • 10 years for commercial. • Capital source: utility, ARRA. • Disconnection for failure to pay. • Financing charges cannot exceed 90% of average annual energy savings. • About 500 projects completed worth $2.5 million. • 0 defaults as far as known.
  • 31. INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS RE AMP Risk Averse Regulated: Cannot typically invest in non-rated securities (eg. Consist of: unrated loan portfolios) Capital Sources • Pension Funds •Banks • Insurance •Credit Unions Companies Typically require large •Foundations • Other Large investments before even thinking •Bonding Investors about investing. •Federal •Treasury Residential appetite: Unless •Utilities secured and bundled in large •Institutional Investors quantities, almost 0. Commercial appetite: For large, rated deals: signifiant. Confidential 31
  • 32. BANK/UTILITY: ILLINOIS RE AMP • Legislation required utilities to develop efficiency financing programs -- $2.5 million each utility for a statewide total of $12.5 million. • Utility ratepayers would cover 100% of defaults. • A 3rd party entity conducts all loan origination and servicing. Capital source is still uncertain. Loan terms TBD. Contract awarded but not public. • Program size is limited to $12.5 million statewide. • Banks’ perspective: • Small, at $12.5 million • Looked only at credit of the utilities. • If they had had to look at individual credit, would not have done the program. • A program similar to this could be of interest to institutional investors – although it is too small to be of great interest.
  • 33. FUNDS FLOW: SMALL LOANS <$20,000 CREDIT UNIONS Capital- Non-CU and Funding Providing Subordinated Pool Credit Unions Investors HB&C Green Energy CUSO Origination Loss and Servicing Reserve Full Loan Origination/Servicing Approved Contractors Property Owners
  • 34. CAPITAL SOURCE: COMMERCIAL BANKS - Bank that provides general business banking services – transactional, savings, mortgages - Generally do not provide energy efficiency-specific products, but do finance mortgages and underwrite loans - Generally focused on short-term lending Major Firms Risk Tolerance Involvement in the EE Opportunities sector Bank of America, Relatively low • Financing ESCo • Secondary market Wells Fargo, U.S. contracts for development would Bank, Capital One, MUSH clients encourage Comerica • EE mortgages involvement • SBA loans • Standardizing and pooling loans 34
  • 35. CAPITAL SOURCE: INVESTMENT BANKS - Bank that enables corporations and/or governmental institutions to raise capital via stock or bond sales. Also manages sales and trading of securities, and generally house an asset management group. - Investment banks are the intermediaries for bond financing (including QECBs) - Have historically eschewed EE because deal size was too small, security was weak and loans were non-standard Major Firms Risk Tolerance Involvement in Opportunities the EE sector Goldman Sachs, JP Depends on group - Early loan - Secondary market Morgan, Morgan within the bank, can be pooling efforts development would Stanley, UBS, Merrill low to high encourage involvement Lynch, Citi, Deutsche - Partnerships with Bank, Barclays, Credit financing companies (e.g. Suisse, plus regional Ygrene Energy Fund + firms Barclays, Hannon Armstrong and Metris) 35
  • 36. CAPITAL SOURCE: BONDS • Project cost greater than $800,000 • Expected useful life of assets being financed is greater than 5 years • District has enough cash flow (i.e. net revenues) to pay debt service • Other lower cost sources of financing are not available 36
  • 37. (QECBS) BONDS ATION CONSERV D ENERGY QUALIFIE SOURCE: CAPITAL National bond volume cap for QECBs: $3.2 billion Annual cash subsidy: 70% of interest costs Structure: Originally a tax credit bond, QECBs were converted to cash subsidy bonds in March 2010. This means a larger investor pool and lower rates on QECBs. Qualified purposes: Reducing energy in publicly-owned buildings by at least 20%; green community programs (including loans and grants to implement such programs); rural renewable energy; any qualified renewable energy facility; research on cellulosic ethanol, carbon sequestration, fuel efficiency, car batteries or building efficiency; mass transit facilities, demonstration projects, public education campaigns for energy efficiency. Eligible issuers: Cities, political subdivisions and conduit issuers Use of available project proceeds: 100% used for capital expenditures for qualified conservation purposes Allocation of volume cap: Allocated among states in proportion to the population, then allocated by population to cities and counties of more than 100,000. Private activity bonds: Up to 30% of each state or large local government allocation may be issued as private activity bonds, , where proceeds of the QECBs are loaned to non-governmental entities and used for energy conservation improvements on privately owned property. Private activity bonds may only be issued to finance capital expenditures. Issuance date: No expiration, proceeds must be spent within three years of issuance IRS notice on QECBs guidance: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-09-29.pdf 37

Notas del editor

  1. Source: TransUnion, accessed January, 13, 2011https://www.transunioncs.com/TCSWeb/samples/ficoScoreSample.do;jsessionid=pLPXNvpPTnG5YM2SpQG2zn8crQ22zwgYVkVBygnGdFsBb2VXK10M!370984622
  2. Same trend prevails as seen in national data: below 700, charge offs start to get fairly significant.
  3. 58% above 700 = 44 million73% above 650 = 56 million Based on 76.5 million households