Presentation to World Futures Studies Federation June2013
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Presentation by Gill Ringland on "Here Be Dragons" Connecting a changing world to strategic decisions
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Presentation to World Futures Studies Federation June2013
- 1. 10/25/13 1
- 3. Perceived impact US BN $ 1000 100 Perceived likelihood in next 10 years 10/25/13 3
- 4. Gigajoules per capita 400 USA 300 200 Europe, Japan, Korea 100 China, India 0 0 10/25/13 10 20 GDP per capita 30 40 4
- 5. The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already Carbon dioxide Change in land use Species extinction rate 0 Freshwater use Nitrogen cycle Sustainable limit Ocean acidification Phosphorus cycle Stratospheric ozone depletion 10/25/13 ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 5
- 6. Traditional hierarchy Efficiency Asset allocation Ad hoc activities, lobbying etc Effective at renewal ? Present and future operating environment 10/25/13 ©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow 6
- 7. Knows the answer doesn’t know the answer Individual 10/25/13 Organisation knows the answer doesn’t know the answer 7
- 9. Line manager, Engineer Corporate manager Early indicators Decisions, Timelines Portfolio management Options Decisions 10/25/13 Strategist Scenarios Ideas & systems Planning Alternate worlds Future thinker “843” trends interconnected 9
- 10. 10/25/13 10
- 11. Traditional hierarchy Efficiency, hedgehogs Asset allocation Planning and ensuring renewal machinery works Effective at renewal, foxes Present and future operating environment ©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
- 12. • EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking Activities) set up to – aggregate existing forward looking studies and data – and involve public and private stakeholders to improve the evidence base of future (R&I) policies • Advisory Board to DG RTD, set up in September 2011 • Adopted a strategy cycle from TEKES in Finland as the basis for aligning to DG RTD cycle 10/25/13 ©2009 Ringland 12
- 13. Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > Strategy (III) > Action (IV)
- 14. • Strategic process: – Strategic Intelligence – cast wide – Stronger systematic sense-making using SI data – role of experts and individuals – Sense making strong link to Selecting priorities – Political dynamics & Member States important in Selecting Priorities • “Hub” – NODE (close to decision-makers) to give access and be an anchor for effectiveness; – also to act as an INTERFACE to translate issues and engage at the right time – NETWORK to provide a broad range of outside sources, antennas across EU and beyond; increasingly involves semiautomated scanning
- 15. iK RAHS ANZ HSN Meta RAHS Risk Assessment & Horizon Scanning AJASN Aus Joint Agencies scanning Network AJASN SS ANZ HSN Meta Aus & NZ Horizon Scanning Network Metafore/ SemaDyson iK iKNow SS Sigma Scan
- 16. • Need for sponsor – what question are we trying to answer? – – – – – – Exploring different visions Analysing trends Analysing drivers Creating different scenarios Building the strategy options Selection of priorities • Links from Strategic Intelligence and to Selecting Priorities 10/25/13 16
- 17. How to integrate the process into real life? Example – preparing H2030 Activity Process management 2012 2013 2014 2015 St art 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mid-term evaluation of H2020 Phase I Involves European Parliament and Commission. Strategic intelligence Phase II Sense-making Phase III Selecting priorities Phase IV Implementation Involves input from knowledge stakeholders and MS Involves MS and Commission. Involves Council. Involves MS and Commission. The process is NOT linear but cyclic with constant feedback (Ref. Slide No 3). 10/25/13 17
- 18. If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please ask – esami@samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our training courses (with the Horizon Scanning Centre of the Foresight Unit) see www.samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our Blowing the Cobwebs off our Mind events, please ask, cobwebs@samiconsulting.co.uk. Questions and comments?? 18
Notas del editor
- {"11":"What is needed is a more balanced organisation, in which the mechanisms for adapting to change – connecting the operating environment into processes to update the assets.\nFuturists are likely to be Foxes\nPart of renewal of organisation\nMay be consultant or staff\nNeed to work across the organisation\nNeed to understand how to work with Hedgehogs\nSad tale at Defra\nSad tale of intelligent toothpaste\nSo what does this imply for the role of futurists?\nIs it gun for hire?\nMcKinsey?\nGuru?\nCourt jester?\n","6":"To explore this issue we have developed a double cone model of an organisation.\nThe upper cone is the existing organisation, concerned with efficiency, risk and performance. This balances on the ball bearing, the asset allocation processes that set the priorities for the organisation – strategic planning, project initiation, budgeting. This is a stable configuration if the environment is benign and growth steady, the cone can balance on the ball bearing.\nIn a turbulent world we need to be sure that there is a solid base, a solid lower cone, supporting the ball bearing – the project initiation and asset allocation processes – and hence the upper cone.\nHowever, connecting the ball bearing to the present and future environment are the activities that leaders feel they are worst at – new product development, technology strategy, innovation culture, employee involvement, shared vision. \nWhat these activities can degenerate into is a set of ad hoc activities, lobbying by Divisional Directors, etc.\nHow can this lower cone become a place that leaders are confident and organisations effective - how to be effective at the activities needed for renewal? \n","7":"Four types of professional\nGun for hire – knows his bit & does as he is told\n“McKinsey” – brought in when the organisation knows what the problem is but needs the comfort of “McKinsey said”\nGurus tell organisations the answer – often the same answer whatever the question\nCourt jester when neither the organisation nor the consultant know the answer\n","8":"Chair of TCBE Futures Council 1994-9\nonly orgs belong to TCBE – CEOs. FD’s, Marketing etc\nFC set up 30 orgs sent reps\nBy 1999 only 5 left – 12 to line jobs, 12 to become futures consultants\nDifficulty of maintaining credibility through outside recognition while being effective internally\nAll professionals have this problem\nBut extreme for futurists – why?\nThinking styles\n","14":"Foresight, Insight, Strategy, Action \nAka Strategic Intelligence; Sense-Making; Selecting Priorities; Implementation\n","9":"Organisations spend 99% of their time on implementation. For that they need competent line managers. Many very good line managers are focused people, who understand what they have to do and get on and do it. Their thinking patterns are often sequential and they can find discussions of alternatives disturbing. Timescale can be a problem too – I remember going to talk to a line manager about scenarios for 2020 and he asked if that was 20 after 8 that evening or tomorrow\nThis picture suggests that people in different roles have different needs (and wants) for information about future possibilities.\nFuturists like ideas\nScenario people work with mental models\nStrategists think flow diagrams\nCorporate managers need to hit their targets\nLine managers want to know what budget, when who do they have?\nSad tale of Defra\nSad tale of intelligent toothpaste\n","10":"How can line managers communicate with futurists?\nIsaiah Berlin applied a saying from Archilocus “The Fox knows many things, but the Hedgehog knows one big thing” to management.\nEverybody has a bit of both, but most futurists are more Fox than Hedgehog.\n"}