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Planetary and societal risks
1. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin dotEarth, New York Times Sybil Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Deborah Rogers International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change Gisbert Glaser Senior Policy Advisor International Council for Science
2. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship Professor Sybil Seitzinger Executive Director International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
3. Antarctic ice core Modern humans appear in Africa Carbon dioxide Methane Carbon dioxide Temperature Methane Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008. Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
4. Antarctic ice core Beyond natural boundaries Methane Carbon dioxide Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008. Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
5. Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004 Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling Source: GRIP icecore data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
6. IGBP Climate-change index Global carbon dioxide Arctic sea-ice minimum Global surface temperature Global sea level
9. Population US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
10. Total real GDP Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
11. Foreign direct investment World Bank (2002) data and statistics IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
12. Damming of rivers World Commission on Dams (2000) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
13. Water use Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
14. Fertiliser consumption International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
15. Urban population The State of the World’s Cities (2001) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
16. Paper consumption Pulp and paper international (1993) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
17. Motor vehicles Global environmental outlook (2000) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
18. Telephones Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
19. International tourism World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
20. Shrimp farm production IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
21. Domesticated land IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
23. Atmospheric CO2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
24. Atmospheric N2O concentration Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
25. Atmospheric CH4 concentration Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
26. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
27. Ozone depletion IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
28. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
38. Ozone Depletion Climate Change Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Nitrogen Ocean Acidification Phosphorus Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global FreshwaterUse Land System Change Chemical Pollution Rockström et al. 2009
39. 2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum “The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”
43. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship Professor Sybil Seitzinger Executive Director International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme www.igbp.net Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se
Notas del editor
To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
This great acceleration really started in the 50s
To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the Great Acceleration in the human enterprise.The hockeystick pattern applies all key indicators that form the basis for human well being and environmental health.
Nitrous oxide makes up an extremely small amount of the atmosphere - it is less than one-thousandth as abundant as carbon dioxide. However, it is 200 to 300 times more effective in trapping heat than carbon dioxide.Nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere by plants and converted into forms such as ammonia, which can then be used by the plants. This is called nitrogen fixation. At the same time, micro-organisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere - denitrification - and this process produces nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide also enters the atmosphere from the ocean.Nitrous oxide has one of the longest atmosphere lifetimes of the greenhouse gases, lasting for up to 150 years.Burning fossil fuels and wood is one source of the increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide, however the main contributor is believed to be the widespread use of nitrogen-base fertilisers. Sewage treatment plants may also be a major source of this gas.Since the Industrial Revolution, the level of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased by 16%.
