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COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 1
Comparison and Analysis of the Evolution of Economic
Thought During the Great Depression and Great Recession
Johnny Wright
Southern New Hampshire University
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 2
Abstract
This paper compares and analyzes the key differences between the Great Depression and
Great Recession, including the major players, role of economic thought, and economic policies
that prolonged the duration of both disasters. It is organized into three main categories: the
economic thought process that was evidenced from the major players and reactions during each
event, the role of the models used to make decisions on economic policy and their limitations,
and how business decisions were impacted due to the perceived nature of the situations. As well,
in studying the responses of other countries during these devastating times, an area for future
study is included that looks into how policy can be maximized to achieve its results and leave
little need for additional intervention. Due to the scale of both situations and a seemingly
ambiguous response due to the presence of externalities, a solution is needed that minimizes the
costs of those externalities and maximizes the benefit of the intervention.
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 3
Comparison and Analysis of the Evolution of Economic
Thought During the Great Depression and Great Recession
The 20th
century and the beginning part of the 21st
century are times that have truly
changed the United States of America, both physically and mentally, in many different sectors.
These changes can influence long-term and short-term outcomes, ultimately making them
socially costly or beneficial in retrospect. Determining what benefits are needed is crucial in
situations where the central authority must do more than simply enforce: they must lead. One of
the major ways it has to lead concerns the well-being of its citizens during times of distress and
the use of economic policy. The Great Depression and Great Recession are distressing times that
challenged the central authority's central way of leading by its Keynesian policies. Using this
thinking, both the government and Federal Reserve took actions to invoke economic activity. In
terms of physics, both entities tried to impact a slowing object by exerting enough force on it. In
order to understand the economic state of the country that resulted from both eras, it is necessary
to study the role of the major inputs of both disasters and examine the cost/benefit analysis of
each against the other. This paper examines key economic indicators during both times, as well
as the fallout from both events, using appropriate qualitative and quantitative analysis.
Event Time lines and Characteristics
The Great Depression
The Great Depression (1929-39) was a period marked as one of the largest economic
downturns, not only for the United States of America, but for the entire world economy. It is
often characterized by the large amounts of layoffs, migration, and morale decline. During that
time, real output in America fell almost 30%. The severity of the situation the macroeconomic
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 4
role and perspective of federal government in its role of maximizing employment: policies
changed from facilitation to provision with the assistance perspective changed to that of
dependence. A few of the events that cause this change are the following:
1. The stock market crash of 1929. This event signaled the loss of aggregate household
wealth in American and globally. The loss of wealth indicates downward pressure on
output since those people no longer have any way to contribute economic activity like
they use to.
2. The migration westward in search of opportunity. Following the stock market crash, there
was a period of migration west. The state population grew about 25% during the years of
the depression (Spector, 2012).
3. Two new world leaders: Franklin Roosevelt and Adolf Hitler. Roosevelt's presidency is
marked by the popularity and passage of New Deal Programs, aimed at strengthening
employment through reducing production to raise price levels (Smiley, 2008), achieved
by government expenditures. Similarly, the same year, Hitler used government
expenditures for public work creations, essentially using debt to foster employment of its
citizens and increase production (Weber, 2011).
4. The decrease in GDP in America and abandonment of the gold standard left Latin
American countries on the verge of default on their debts. Those countries were heavily
dependent on its exports; once the Depression hit these regions, they be became more
attractable for their land and labor, turning many of those economies into manufacturing
economies (Martinez, 2009).
5. The Employment Act of 1946. After the Depression and World War II, the government in
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 5
America had the responsibility of preventing the situation like the depression. The
Employment Act of 1946 allowed the government to take an active role in maximizing
employment of resources and production, reinforcing its central role of market
stabilization (Santoni, 1986).
The Great Recession. Much like its counterpart in the twentieth century, the Great
Recession was also a time marked with a severe decline in economic activity. The focal point of
this situation occurred in 2007 with the subprime mortgage crisis. While this economic decline
did not last long, it had lasting effects on labor laws that are still being felt. It also resurfaced the
debate of the federal government's role as well as included a question on living entitlements
(right to work, wages, etc..). Interestingly, it highlighted a strong desire for citizen dependence
on the government as many of the resulting reactions were social in nature. Some of the events
that further shape the evolution of labor laws are the following:
1. During the years of the recession, aggregate real GDP dropped about 6% and the
unemployment rate increased 4.7%. This could be due to the increase amount of citizens
going through bankruptcy following the mortgage crisis and claiming unemployment in
the statistics.
2. Commencement of Quantitative Easing in 2008. The tail end of the Recession saw the
emergence of quantitative easing actions of the Federal Reserve (purchasing of mortgage-
backed securities to increase supply of money in circulation). The logic is that if banks no
longer have toxic assets on its books, it can free up more funds to lend to small
businesses and foster investment, which helps employment.
3. Similar stimulus packages in the United States and China in 2009. In 2009, the American
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 6
Recovery and Reinvestment Act was established. Its purpose was to stimulate economic
activity by issuing a transfer payment to firms who meet qualifications denoted by the
government for the aid. The focus was aimed at saving approximately 3 million jobs
(Grunwald, 2010). In China, the stimulus package was aimed toward infrastructure to
facilitate GDP growth. The result was a smaller decrease in its export decline the
following year, measured against other developed nations (Plafker, 2009).
4. Growing resentment of low income citizens of income inequality in 2012. This normative
thought, spurned from Joseph Stigliz's The Price of Inequality, gave rise to questions on
fairness of wages in the labor market and states that the top 1% of citizens share the
majority of the wealth in the United States of America, while the rest share only a
fraction of the wealth (Mankiw, 2013).
5. Growing minimum wage problem, with largest increase occurring for a particular labor
market in 2014. In response to the growing income inequality and difficulty for a job that
provides a living wage, many people in the city of Seattle pressured its city council to
increase the minimum wage to $15 hourly over a period of seven years.
Government Reaction and Business decision making
Because of the downward pressure on gross domestic product during both disasters,
corporations list profits, resulting in rising unemployment. The unemployment that spurned
caused problems for the citizens of the country as they were unable to participate in the
economy, resulting in labor regulations to prevent the problem. By using social programs to
guarantee jobs for the citizens, employment became equalized among all of those who did not
have it. This has the same effect of making a private good into a public good. By equalizing the
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 7
right of employment among citizens, the rivalry has been eliminated; because the government is
taking it upon themselves to solve the issue, the explicit cost to citizens has been eliminated, thus
transforming employment into a public good. The only thing governments could do was respond
to the Great Depression and Great Recession by increasing government expenditures and enact
countercyclical fiscal policies, ones that work to counteract negative trends in the economy.
The primary difference between the reactions are what both problems represented. The
Great Depression, characterized by the inability to get a job due to their unavailability or
negotiate a livable wage, was handled in America by transforming the notion of production into a
right and a good, thus socializing business to fit requirements and establishing precedent for the
government to be the provider for its citizen's financial troubles. This is evidenced by some of
the programs the New Deal, specifically the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933, that set forth
to curtail production by providing subsidies to not plant (Smiley, 2008). In addition to social
programs, the government established the right of the citizens to negotiate better terms of
employment. In 1935, Congress passed the Wagner Act, which allowed individuals to collective
bargain for higher, livable wages through unionization (Zheng, 2011). By allowing individuals to
form a macro demand wage market, business were forced to operate at a desired level of wage
that exceeded their allocated wage costs and reduction in profits because of the rising costs.
In comparison, the Great Recession focused on the income level of the citizens. Because
of normative fairness debates, such as income inequality and minimum wage, the government
responded by using debt to assist firms expand into areas that are deemed as vital (science,
technology, mathematics, etc...) along with job creation. This can be evidenced by the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act and what it set out to accomplish. It gave businesses the
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 8
incentive to invest in capital for expansion to new areas with the backing of the government. The
result is the long time it took to recover the jobs lost and sluggish recovery in the process.
Economic models and thinking
As previously stated, the Great Depression and Recession challenged the way central
authorities aid its citizens during times of economic hardship. Though both hardships have
similar upstarts, the fall out and duration of both were vastly different. One key difference is the
reaction of the Fed in both situations. Due to the quantity theory of money, which states that an
increase in the money supply leads to an increase in price level, the Fed had to be careful in what
actions it took as any action can cause unintended effects, also known as moral hazard. Moral
hazard will be discussed later, but it helps to understand the thought process during both times.
In the basic equation form, the quantity theory of money relates the product of the money supply
and velocity of transactions to the product of the price level and number of transactions that
occur: in other words, M*V = P*T (“Quantity Theory of Money Definition,” 2007). This theory
is the basis of economic thinking in both instances and changed in use.
Economic thinking during the Great Depression
The fallout from the event highlighted the need for collecting information on certain
economic indicators, such as interest rates, market activity, and aggregate employment. Because
the depression had the most noticeable effect on employment, this area was the most heavily
focused on. As seen in the time line, many of the programs created during the New Deal era were
aimed at fostering employment, albeit though production curtailing using debt. The idea is that
rising employment increases the demand for money and market activity, increasing the amount
and velocity of transactions. Appendix A shows that personal income had decreased by 29% in
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 9
the early years of the depression. The need for policy can be evidenced when looking at the
individual inputs to market activity. Perhaps the most staggering is 57% decline in private capital
investment (see Appendix B). While the government made its actions, the Fed invoked
contractionary monetary policies to reduce the amount of money in supply to be used, invoking
an appearance of a stable velocity of money. Because the conditions in the stock market during
the Depression left no room for value investing, a gold outflow from the country was evidenced.
The situation was described that because of the liquidity issues and gold outflow crisis that banks
faced during this era, expansionary policies would be counterproductive (“Monetary policy in
the great depression: What the fed did,” 1992). The limitation to this view is that the
employment issue would dealt with. Contractionary monetary policies, according to the IS-LM
model, suggest that a reduction in supply would lead to an increase in price, also known as rising
interest rates. Therefore, anyone were interested in production capital during this time would be
subject to higher interest rates for loans, causing capital investment to aid in the decline of
unemployment.
Economic thinking during the Great Recession. In comparison with the Great
Depression, the Great Recession had a similar profile: stock market crash, increasing
unemployment, and decreasing market activity. In the 2008 Recession, the velocity of
transactions decreased 12% from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q2 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
2015). The same time range displayed 2% drop in personal income as well as a 28% decline in
private capital investment (see Appendices C and D). Abiding by the same quantity theory of
money that guides policy, this would indicate a problem of unemployment as the demand for
dollars decreased among the aggregate economy. Unlike its 1930's counterpart, the 2013
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 10
Economic Report of the President report cited that the decreasing flow of labor force
participation put downward pressure on real GDP, evidenced by the 3% decrease in real GDP. In
dollar form, that is over $400 billion. Also, while the Depression focused on the right to a job
and changed aggregate thought among the citizens to dependency from the government, the
Recession gave rise to income inequality and living wage debates. This aspect justified
expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, since bank liquidity was not as severe of an issue
during this hardship in the aggregate. The Fed was forced to intervene in those specific instances
where it would pose a major problem.
As a result of the nature of the situation, the government used debt to stimulate private
consumption and private capital investment through its stimulus program. The goal was to
increase the demand for dollars and stimulate production. As mentioned above, the stimulus
program was focused on the technology sector in order to make the country more competitive
abroad. The report foretasted that productivity would increase 2.8% annually from 2013 on.
While this may seems like a decent number, it does present evidence that unemployment will put
a drag the full recovery of the economy and continuance of the structural stagnation state that the
United States of America has been in. In retrospect, this number was accurate, even since the end
of the Recession. On average, GDP has been increasing 2.14%, or almost $300 billion since
2010.
The Federal Reserve had a more serious problem to attend to. Similar to the stock market
crash of 1929, the 2008 Recession was caused by bank investment in highly volatile assets, with
the most notable offenders being Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and American International
Group. Those assets, which were mortgage-based assets, largely increased they incurred and
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 11
drove their stock prices down. Due to the unprecedented nature of the situation, the Fed was
forced to intervene in some way, with respect to the moral hazard problem they face. In the case
of Bear Stearns, the Fed allowed J.P. Morgan to lend $29 billion to purchase those toxic assets
from the firm, with the promise that if the assets appreciate in value to offset the cost of
operating Bear Stearns, the Fed could see a gain. This deal also made the Fed liable for any
losses the assets incurred should J.P. Morgan no longer be able to cover them. Due to the
situation of the proposed bank runs from Bear Stearns because of the losses it incurred, the Fed
had to prevent a massive depression that bank insolvency would cause; however, in doing so, the
Fed took responsibility for the risk that Bear Stearns had imposed on itself: should those assets
lose value greater than what J.P. Morgan could cover, the central bank itself would stand to lose
money and have a spillover effect on the country as a whole.
A similar threat was posed by American International Group (AIG) that same year. The
company, who has a share in many different goods and service industries such as insurance and
construction, had invested a similar set of assets to Bear Stearns. In this case, the market
exposure alone made the solution to the situation difficult to find. As opposed to allowing
another bank to purchase the assets from this firm, the Fed itself loaned the money to AIG for
them to repay once the firm was able to do so. The consequence for AIG is this: because of the
deal made with the Fed and the measures the Fed took to insure against great loss, the $85 billion
is loaned to them would be enough to take control of the whole firm should AIG fail to repay,
implying that the Fed would also be responsible for AIG as well as Bear Stearns.
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, the Principle-Agent Problem, and Moral Hazard
Both the Great Depression and Recession highlighted difficulty of intervention during
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 12
times of hardship. Evidence of economic activity is critical to the country's ongoing survival,
which give the government and the Fed the incentive to correct any issues. The problem arises
when any actions made are not perceived to be in the best interest of the citizens, illustrated by
the moral hazard and principle-agent problems.
The Moral Hazard Problem and Policy
In the 2008 Recession, the velocity of transactions decreased 12% from 2008 Q1 to 2009
Q2 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2015). Faced with this problem, the Fed had to try to
take an action that would reduce the overall effects of moral hazard on the economy. As seen in
the explanation of the IS-LM model, moral hazard is defined by the Fed as a the by-product of
intervention; in other words, it is the externality their actions produce on the citizens of a country
as a whole, due to their third party status in the implementation of the proposed policy. This
explains why the Fed is reluctant to intervene in crisis: their actions could cause bigger long term
problems. Its job is to add an additional layer of insurance against instability and, in doing so,
produce instability.
One such reason for the moral hazard problem when it comes to wages and productivity
is the unfairness associated with wages across different positions and lack of pertinent
responsibility. Since prevailing thought indicates that high standard of living is a right everyone
should have and, thus, a normative public good, a higher wage for someone else or lack of
additional opportunities for the employee will cause them to perform lower than agreed on,
making the moral hazard problem evident. In the case of the suppliers of labor (employees), they
have incentive to not maximize their production but still receive the full benefit of maximizing
their production via a full paycheck. This proves to the employee that the marginal costs
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 13
associated with full employment of their resources outweighs the marginal benefit of fully
employing their resources. It cause the long term productivity, with respect to this employee, to
fall overall.
When choosing which situations to intervene in, the Fed does so with the micro moral
hazard problem in mind. The goal of their actions is to foster financial, price, and economic
stability. This is usually best done by having strict guidelines about its actions. Through study of
the information market, the Fed limits the information it give out in terms of what it actually
means. They do this to assist the markets in letting themselves work out; in a sense, it is more
beneficial for the invisible hand principle to correct the problem before directly getting involved.
This is also done to not set any precedents to what actions they take. Without this, situations such
as Bear Stearns or AIG could lead to an incestuous dependence on the Federal Reserve for these
problems.
Once the Fed decides to intervene, it has to carefully select who they will assist and the
terms of the assistance. This is one reason why the third bank in crisis during this time, Lehman
Brothers, was not aided by the Federal Reserve. Assuming that the situation disrupts the goals of
stability the it is charged to do, the Federal Reserve then seeks out ways to have the private
sector solve the problem naturally. If that cannot work, the Fed then sees if the firm has enough
collateral to cover a loan; if it does, the Fed will intervene while working to reduce moral hazard.
If the firm does not have enough in collateral for a loan, such as the case with Lehman Brothers,
the Fed will let the market run its natural course with that firm under the understanding that there
is no moral hazard. This process resembles a larger demonstration of the cost/benefit analysis: in
the case of AIG and Bear Stearns, the benefit to saving those firms (the externalities failure
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 14
would have produced) outweighed the initial short-run costs of monetary policy. In the case of
Lehman Brothers, the costs exceeded the benefits where intervention would not have been
effective.
The Principle-Agent Problem and Policy. In addition to the moral hazards that can arise from
intervention, the principle-agent problem also works to constrain what actions the Fed and
government can make to achieve their goals. This problem occurs when a secondary party in a
contract has more incentive to align its interest with the primary party, though it may not be in
the best interest of the secondary party. In the labor market, this can be seen by the existence of
minimum wage and its controversial nature. Both events gave birth to the notion of a high
standard of living being normative public good. The introduction of unions into the economy
specifically serve to ensure that this occurs, through pushing for wage control laws. These laws,
when passed, increases the minimum amount that an employee is payed; however, due to
employee wages being counted in the cost of doing business, marginal operating costs rise
without the productivity to match the change. In addition to reduction in productivity, with the
increased price of purchasing labor, firms will demand fewer workers and contribute to the
inevitable unemployment rate increase.
The principal-agent problem in the aggregate economy exists when firms must be willing
to accept the price of labor increase, but see a decrease in performance. In order to solve this
problem, the agent must induce the principal to act optimally. This typically the reason firms
employ performance-based incentives (Spaulding, 2014); since these employees inherently have
no incentive to maximize themselves due to the added benefit being non existent, firms sacrifice
more in short-term costs to motivate their labor to increase long-term productivity.
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 15
Executive Pay Changes and the Principle-Agent Problem: Microsoft Example. The
topic of executive pay and fairness is one that sparks thoughts and ideas guided by many positive
and normative economic institutions of thought. In addition to this topic, the issue of the
principal-agent problem has been shown to be one that can not only decrease the value of their
purchased labor inherently, but also be solved using proper performance measurements. In the
case of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), a large technology company that manufactures raw and
finished goods for computers and electronics, the issue was one decided on by shareholders.
Investment Weekly News published an article in October 2009 on Microsoft's executive pay
structure was approved to be decided by its shareholders (“Microsoft Board Authorizes 'Say-on-
Pay; Advisory Vote on Executive Compensation, 2009). This decision was more than likely made
because of the interest of the agents; in this case, the agents (shareholders) had the incentive to
raise executive wages due the burden of corporate responsibility being on those executives and
the self-interest of the shareholders to maximize company value. In other words, allowing the
impartial shareholders to determine wages induces the executives to ensure the performance of
the firm overall. On the firm's side, it allows for those who invest into the company (which raises
company revenue) to determine the direction of the firm while still maintaining control of the
firm. Due to the rising unemployment during this time, firms have the incentive to maintain its
productivity or suffer declining profits. This is one reason why corporate structures would
logically change during such an event: unemployment implies declining productivity, which
leads to long-term problems that only firm leaders are responsible for. Their job is to foster
growth for their firm and worsening economic conditions can cause questions on whether or not
executives deserve the top pay they receive when the rest of the citizens continue to struggle.
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 16
Conclusion and Future Study
This paper analyzed the evolution of economic thinking in the cases of Great Depression and
Great Recession and compared the actions of the central authorities (the government and the
Federal Reserve) in each situation. Both periods of economic decline spawned from similar stock
market and other conditions. An analysis such as this is crucial for the next generation of
business leaders, politicians, and educators in that it provides an understanding to the role of
thinking in all levels of the economy that contributed to the problems that arose. In addition to
the understanding the economic thought and its evolution over time, an analysis like this can be
used to understand the economic condition of the country going forward.
The fallout from each era, seen by the sharp declines in personal income, private capital
investment, and GDP, yielded different results and changed the way American viewed the role of
the government. It forced the long-standing economic institution of capitalism to evolve by
changing the aggregate view of work and production. By modifying the definition of a public
good so that job stability and living wages are standard and has no implicit costs, governments
responded to the Great Depression and Great Recession by increasing government expenditures,
which caused citizens to become more dependent on what the government does. The problem
with this dependency is that government did not fully for non-financial externalities, such as
aggregate thought and perception of the usefulness of its actions; in other words, the government
did not account for the real issues that each era brought with it. The Great Depression,
characterized by the inability to get a job due to their relative unavailability and unlivable wage
that came with most available job, was handled in America by transforming the notion of
production into a right and a good and socializing business to fit requirements, thus setting
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 17
precedent for the government to be the provider for its citizen's financial troubles. In
comparison, the Great Recession focused on the income level of the citizens. Because of
normative fairness debates, the government responded by using debt to assist firms expand into
areas that would bring along with it high-wage job creation. Conversely, in both situations,
countries such as Germany and China used their debt to focused on simplifying production
internally and resulted in faster and stronger recovery in both nations compared to the United
States of America.
In addition to the role of the government, the role of the Federal Reserve was also
evident. The Fed acted differently in each situation. In the Great Depression, the Fed used a
contractionary monetary policy to limit the number of bank runs that occurred from the stock
market conditions. In contrast, the stock market conditions during the Recession caused the Fed
to invoke expansionary monetary policies, such as quantitative easing, to bring the economy to a
state a full employment in the realm of the aggregate money supply. The way the Federal
Reserve accomplished this task was through the purchasing of mortgage-backed securities. By
using the main proponent of the disaster, the Fed artificially stabilized the economy; however, in
keeping in mind its moral hazard problem, that left interest rates low on government bonds and
quelled any chance of gaining additional value from them.
This paper also discussed the labor market and how wages are determined. Through a
working definition of the labor market supplier (employees) and those who demand labor
(firms), a view of the problems that exist with the relationship between the two parties was
explored. Two problems can arise from the wage debate: moral hazard and principal-agent. The
moral hazard problem occurs post-contract when one party acts sub-optimally or has information
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 18
that could have changed the terms of the original contract. It creates a free rider problem. The
principal-agent problem exists when secondary parties are forced to align their interest with the
primary party (principal), though the alignment of those interests may not be to the benefit of the
secondary party. The evidence of this is seen in the discussion of executive pay. Using the recent
wage determination change of Microsoft's executives, it can be seen that introducing a
productivity-inducing action can solve both the moral hazard and principal-agent problems.
One thing to consider for future study is the effect of monetary and fiscal policy on
private capital investment. One of the problems with failings of economic policies is that it does
not foster production directly. In the consumption function for GDP, a fiscal stimulus or a
quantitative ease would result in an increase in consumption due to transfer payments. In a
similar fashion to China and Germany's recession responses, monetary or fiscal policy could be
engineered to foster production on a citizen level. This would again challenge the economic
institution of capitalism in that the government is giving something that is not earned, but it is
helping stimulate production on a microeconomic level. It still presents the same challenge as the
implementation of the countercyclical policy. As seen from countercyclical policies in the past
(the 2003 Economic Stimulus being most notable), the intended long-term effects of such actions
do take a long-term to fully be evident.
One striking reason for the focus on private capital investment is that since both the
Depression and Recession had similar starts, they also had similar events leading up to it. The
Great Depression saw the economic prosperity of the Roaring 20's while the Great Recession
enjoyed the economic prosperity of the 1990's. In the 1990's, private capital investment increased
6.88% yearly. Using this model as a base, economic policy can be used to reproduce the effects
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 19
of such times, if planned early enough.
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 20
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Spector, D. (2012, April 3). MAP OF THE DAY: What The Mass Migration Of The 1930s
Looked Like. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from http://www.businessinsider.com/great-
depression-population-change-2012-4
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 1.1.6. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained
Dollars,”www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?reqid=6&step=3&isuri=1&600=1(accessed
January 31, 2015).
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 2.1. Personal Income and Its
Disposition,”www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 22
reqid=6&step=3&isuri=1&600=1(accessed January 31, 2015).
Weber, M. (2011, November 1). INSTITUTE FOR HISTORICAL REVIEW. Retrieved
December 21, 2014, from http://www.ihr.org/other/economyhitler2011.html
Zheng, G. (2011). Wagner act (1935). In The American economy: A historical encyclopedia.
Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.snhu.edu/login?qurl=http
%3A%2F%2Fsearch.credoreference.com.ezproxy.snhu.edu%2Fcontent%2Fentry
%2Fabcamerecon%2Fwagner_act_1935%2F0
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 23
Appendix A
Personal Income change during the Great Depression (1929 – 1935, annualized)
Appendix B
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 24
GDP and Private Capital Investment during the Great Depression (1929-1935, annualized)
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 25
Appendix C
Personal income during the Great Recession (2008-2009, quarterly)
COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 26
Appendix D
GDP and private capital investment during the Great Recession (2008-2009, quarterly)

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  • 1. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 1 Comparison and Analysis of the Evolution of Economic Thought During the Great Depression and Great Recession Johnny Wright Southern New Hampshire University
  • 2. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 2 Abstract This paper compares and analyzes the key differences between the Great Depression and Great Recession, including the major players, role of economic thought, and economic policies that prolonged the duration of both disasters. It is organized into three main categories: the economic thought process that was evidenced from the major players and reactions during each event, the role of the models used to make decisions on economic policy and their limitations, and how business decisions were impacted due to the perceived nature of the situations. As well, in studying the responses of other countries during these devastating times, an area for future study is included that looks into how policy can be maximized to achieve its results and leave little need for additional intervention. Due to the scale of both situations and a seemingly ambiguous response due to the presence of externalities, a solution is needed that minimizes the costs of those externalities and maximizes the benefit of the intervention.
  • 3. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 3 Comparison and Analysis of the Evolution of Economic Thought During the Great Depression and Great Recession The 20th century and the beginning part of the 21st century are times that have truly changed the United States of America, both physically and mentally, in many different sectors. These changes can influence long-term and short-term outcomes, ultimately making them socially costly or beneficial in retrospect. Determining what benefits are needed is crucial in situations where the central authority must do more than simply enforce: they must lead. One of the major ways it has to lead concerns the well-being of its citizens during times of distress and the use of economic policy. The Great Depression and Great Recession are distressing times that challenged the central authority's central way of leading by its Keynesian policies. Using this thinking, both the government and Federal Reserve took actions to invoke economic activity. In terms of physics, both entities tried to impact a slowing object by exerting enough force on it. In order to understand the economic state of the country that resulted from both eras, it is necessary to study the role of the major inputs of both disasters and examine the cost/benefit analysis of each against the other. This paper examines key economic indicators during both times, as well as the fallout from both events, using appropriate qualitative and quantitative analysis. Event Time lines and Characteristics The Great Depression The Great Depression (1929-39) was a period marked as one of the largest economic downturns, not only for the United States of America, but for the entire world economy. It is often characterized by the large amounts of layoffs, migration, and morale decline. During that time, real output in America fell almost 30%. The severity of the situation the macroeconomic
  • 4. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 4 role and perspective of federal government in its role of maximizing employment: policies changed from facilitation to provision with the assistance perspective changed to that of dependence. A few of the events that cause this change are the following: 1. The stock market crash of 1929. This event signaled the loss of aggregate household wealth in American and globally. The loss of wealth indicates downward pressure on output since those people no longer have any way to contribute economic activity like they use to. 2. The migration westward in search of opportunity. Following the stock market crash, there was a period of migration west. The state population grew about 25% during the years of the depression (Spector, 2012). 3. Two new world leaders: Franklin Roosevelt and Adolf Hitler. Roosevelt's presidency is marked by the popularity and passage of New Deal Programs, aimed at strengthening employment through reducing production to raise price levels (Smiley, 2008), achieved by government expenditures. Similarly, the same year, Hitler used government expenditures for public work creations, essentially using debt to foster employment of its citizens and increase production (Weber, 2011). 4. The decrease in GDP in America and abandonment of the gold standard left Latin American countries on the verge of default on their debts. Those countries were heavily dependent on its exports; once the Depression hit these regions, they be became more attractable for their land and labor, turning many of those economies into manufacturing economies (Martinez, 2009). 5. The Employment Act of 1946. After the Depression and World War II, the government in
  • 5. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 5 America had the responsibility of preventing the situation like the depression. The Employment Act of 1946 allowed the government to take an active role in maximizing employment of resources and production, reinforcing its central role of market stabilization (Santoni, 1986). The Great Recession. Much like its counterpart in the twentieth century, the Great Recession was also a time marked with a severe decline in economic activity. The focal point of this situation occurred in 2007 with the subprime mortgage crisis. While this economic decline did not last long, it had lasting effects on labor laws that are still being felt. It also resurfaced the debate of the federal government's role as well as included a question on living entitlements (right to work, wages, etc..). Interestingly, it highlighted a strong desire for citizen dependence on the government as many of the resulting reactions were social in nature. Some of the events that further shape the evolution of labor laws are the following: 1. During the years of the recession, aggregate real GDP dropped about 6% and the unemployment rate increased 4.7%. This could be due to the increase amount of citizens going through bankruptcy following the mortgage crisis and claiming unemployment in the statistics. 2. Commencement of Quantitative Easing in 2008. The tail end of the Recession saw the emergence of quantitative easing actions of the Federal Reserve (purchasing of mortgage- backed securities to increase supply of money in circulation). The logic is that if banks no longer have toxic assets on its books, it can free up more funds to lend to small businesses and foster investment, which helps employment. 3. Similar stimulus packages in the United States and China in 2009. In 2009, the American
  • 6. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 6 Recovery and Reinvestment Act was established. Its purpose was to stimulate economic activity by issuing a transfer payment to firms who meet qualifications denoted by the government for the aid. The focus was aimed at saving approximately 3 million jobs (Grunwald, 2010). In China, the stimulus package was aimed toward infrastructure to facilitate GDP growth. The result was a smaller decrease in its export decline the following year, measured against other developed nations (Plafker, 2009). 4. Growing resentment of low income citizens of income inequality in 2012. This normative thought, spurned from Joseph Stigliz's The Price of Inequality, gave rise to questions on fairness of wages in the labor market and states that the top 1% of citizens share the majority of the wealth in the United States of America, while the rest share only a fraction of the wealth (Mankiw, 2013). 5. Growing minimum wage problem, with largest increase occurring for a particular labor market in 2014. In response to the growing income inequality and difficulty for a job that provides a living wage, many people in the city of Seattle pressured its city council to increase the minimum wage to $15 hourly over a period of seven years. Government Reaction and Business decision making Because of the downward pressure on gross domestic product during both disasters, corporations list profits, resulting in rising unemployment. The unemployment that spurned caused problems for the citizens of the country as they were unable to participate in the economy, resulting in labor regulations to prevent the problem. By using social programs to guarantee jobs for the citizens, employment became equalized among all of those who did not have it. This has the same effect of making a private good into a public good. By equalizing the
  • 7. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 7 right of employment among citizens, the rivalry has been eliminated; because the government is taking it upon themselves to solve the issue, the explicit cost to citizens has been eliminated, thus transforming employment into a public good. The only thing governments could do was respond to the Great Depression and Great Recession by increasing government expenditures and enact countercyclical fiscal policies, ones that work to counteract negative trends in the economy. The primary difference between the reactions are what both problems represented. The Great Depression, characterized by the inability to get a job due to their unavailability or negotiate a livable wage, was handled in America by transforming the notion of production into a right and a good, thus socializing business to fit requirements and establishing precedent for the government to be the provider for its citizen's financial troubles. This is evidenced by some of the programs the New Deal, specifically the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933, that set forth to curtail production by providing subsidies to not plant (Smiley, 2008). In addition to social programs, the government established the right of the citizens to negotiate better terms of employment. In 1935, Congress passed the Wagner Act, which allowed individuals to collective bargain for higher, livable wages through unionization (Zheng, 2011). By allowing individuals to form a macro demand wage market, business were forced to operate at a desired level of wage that exceeded their allocated wage costs and reduction in profits because of the rising costs. In comparison, the Great Recession focused on the income level of the citizens. Because of normative fairness debates, such as income inequality and minimum wage, the government responded by using debt to assist firms expand into areas that are deemed as vital (science, technology, mathematics, etc...) along with job creation. This can be evidenced by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and what it set out to accomplish. It gave businesses the
  • 8. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 8 incentive to invest in capital for expansion to new areas with the backing of the government. The result is the long time it took to recover the jobs lost and sluggish recovery in the process. Economic models and thinking As previously stated, the Great Depression and Recession challenged the way central authorities aid its citizens during times of economic hardship. Though both hardships have similar upstarts, the fall out and duration of both were vastly different. One key difference is the reaction of the Fed in both situations. Due to the quantity theory of money, which states that an increase in the money supply leads to an increase in price level, the Fed had to be careful in what actions it took as any action can cause unintended effects, also known as moral hazard. Moral hazard will be discussed later, but it helps to understand the thought process during both times. In the basic equation form, the quantity theory of money relates the product of the money supply and velocity of transactions to the product of the price level and number of transactions that occur: in other words, M*V = P*T (“Quantity Theory of Money Definition,” 2007). This theory is the basis of economic thinking in both instances and changed in use. Economic thinking during the Great Depression The fallout from the event highlighted the need for collecting information on certain economic indicators, such as interest rates, market activity, and aggregate employment. Because the depression had the most noticeable effect on employment, this area was the most heavily focused on. As seen in the time line, many of the programs created during the New Deal era were aimed at fostering employment, albeit though production curtailing using debt. The idea is that rising employment increases the demand for money and market activity, increasing the amount and velocity of transactions. Appendix A shows that personal income had decreased by 29% in
  • 9. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 9 the early years of the depression. The need for policy can be evidenced when looking at the individual inputs to market activity. Perhaps the most staggering is 57% decline in private capital investment (see Appendix B). While the government made its actions, the Fed invoked contractionary monetary policies to reduce the amount of money in supply to be used, invoking an appearance of a stable velocity of money. Because the conditions in the stock market during the Depression left no room for value investing, a gold outflow from the country was evidenced. The situation was described that because of the liquidity issues and gold outflow crisis that banks faced during this era, expansionary policies would be counterproductive (“Monetary policy in the great depression: What the fed did,” 1992). The limitation to this view is that the employment issue would dealt with. Contractionary monetary policies, according to the IS-LM model, suggest that a reduction in supply would lead to an increase in price, also known as rising interest rates. Therefore, anyone were interested in production capital during this time would be subject to higher interest rates for loans, causing capital investment to aid in the decline of unemployment. Economic thinking during the Great Recession. In comparison with the Great Depression, the Great Recession had a similar profile: stock market crash, increasing unemployment, and decreasing market activity. In the 2008 Recession, the velocity of transactions decreased 12% from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q2 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2015). The same time range displayed 2% drop in personal income as well as a 28% decline in private capital investment (see Appendices C and D). Abiding by the same quantity theory of money that guides policy, this would indicate a problem of unemployment as the demand for dollars decreased among the aggregate economy. Unlike its 1930's counterpart, the 2013
  • 10. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 10 Economic Report of the President report cited that the decreasing flow of labor force participation put downward pressure on real GDP, evidenced by the 3% decrease in real GDP. In dollar form, that is over $400 billion. Also, while the Depression focused on the right to a job and changed aggregate thought among the citizens to dependency from the government, the Recession gave rise to income inequality and living wage debates. This aspect justified expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, since bank liquidity was not as severe of an issue during this hardship in the aggregate. The Fed was forced to intervene in those specific instances where it would pose a major problem. As a result of the nature of the situation, the government used debt to stimulate private consumption and private capital investment through its stimulus program. The goal was to increase the demand for dollars and stimulate production. As mentioned above, the stimulus program was focused on the technology sector in order to make the country more competitive abroad. The report foretasted that productivity would increase 2.8% annually from 2013 on. While this may seems like a decent number, it does present evidence that unemployment will put a drag the full recovery of the economy and continuance of the structural stagnation state that the United States of America has been in. In retrospect, this number was accurate, even since the end of the Recession. On average, GDP has been increasing 2.14%, or almost $300 billion since 2010. The Federal Reserve had a more serious problem to attend to. Similar to the stock market crash of 1929, the 2008 Recession was caused by bank investment in highly volatile assets, with the most notable offenders being Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and American International Group. Those assets, which were mortgage-based assets, largely increased they incurred and
  • 11. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 11 drove their stock prices down. Due to the unprecedented nature of the situation, the Fed was forced to intervene in some way, with respect to the moral hazard problem they face. In the case of Bear Stearns, the Fed allowed J.P. Morgan to lend $29 billion to purchase those toxic assets from the firm, with the promise that if the assets appreciate in value to offset the cost of operating Bear Stearns, the Fed could see a gain. This deal also made the Fed liable for any losses the assets incurred should J.P. Morgan no longer be able to cover them. Due to the situation of the proposed bank runs from Bear Stearns because of the losses it incurred, the Fed had to prevent a massive depression that bank insolvency would cause; however, in doing so, the Fed took responsibility for the risk that Bear Stearns had imposed on itself: should those assets lose value greater than what J.P. Morgan could cover, the central bank itself would stand to lose money and have a spillover effect on the country as a whole. A similar threat was posed by American International Group (AIG) that same year. The company, who has a share in many different goods and service industries such as insurance and construction, had invested a similar set of assets to Bear Stearns. In this case, the market exposure alone made the solution to the situation difficult to find. As opposed to allowing another bank to purchase the assets from this firm, the Fed itself loaned the money to AIG for them to repay once the firm was able to do so. The consequence for AIG is this: because of the deal made with the Fed and the measures the Fed took to insure against great loss, the $85 billion is loaned to them would be enough to take control of the whole firm should AIG fail to repay, implying that the Fed would also be responsible for AIG as well as Bear Stearns. Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, the Principle-Agent Problem, and Moral Hazard Both the Great Depression and Recession highlighted difficulty of intervention during
  • 12. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 12 times of hardship. Evidence of economic activity is critical to the country's ongoing survival, which give the government and the Fed the incentive to correct any issues. The problem arises when any actions made are not perceived to be in the best interest of the citizens, illustrated by the moral hazard and principle-agent problems. The Moral Hazard Problem and Policy In the 2008 Recession, the velocity of transactions decreased 12% from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q2 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2015). Faced with this problem, the Fed had to try to take an action that would reduce the overall effects of moral hazard on the economy. As seen in the explanation of the IS-LM model, moral hazard is defined by the Fed as a the by-product of intervention; in other words, it is the externality their actions produce on the citizens of a country as a whole, due to their third party status in the implementation of the proposed policy. This explains why the Fed is reluctant to intervene in crisis: their actions could cause bigger long term problems. Its job is to add an additional layer of insurance against instability and, in doing so, produce instability. One such reason for the moral hazard problem when it comes to wages and productivity is the unfairness associated with wages across different positions and lack of pertinent responsibility. Since prevailing thought indicates that high standard of living is a right everyone should have and, thus, a normative public good, a higher wage for someone else or lack of additional opportunities for the employee will cause them to perform lower than agreed on, making the moral hazard problem evident. In the case of the suppliers of labor (employees), they have incentive to not maximize their production but still receive the full benefit of maximizing their production via a full paycheck. This proves to the employee that the marginal costs
  • 13. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 13 associated with full employment of their resources outweighs the marginal benefit of fully employing their resources. It cause the long term productivity, with respect to this employee, to fall overall. When choosing which situations to intervene in, the Fed does so with the micro moral hazard problem in mind. The goal of their actions is to foster financial, price, and economic stability. This is usually best done by having strict guidelines about its actions. Through study of the information market, the Fed limits the information it give out in terms of what it actually means. They do this to assist the markets in letting themselves work out; in a sense, it is more beneficial for the invisible hand principle to correct the problem before directly getting involved. This is also done to not set any precedents to what actions they take. Without this, situations such as Bear Stearns or AIG could lead to an incestuous dependence on the Federal Reserve for these problems. Once the Fed decides to intervene, it has to carefully select who they will assist and the terms of the assistance. This is one reason why the third bank in crisis during this time, Lehman Brothers, was not aided by the Federal Reserve. Assuming that the situation disrupts the goals of stability the it is charged to do, the Federal Reserve then seeks out ways to have the private sector solve the problem naturally. If that cannot work, the Fed then sees if the firm has enough collateral to cover a loan; if it does, the Fed will intervene while working to reduce moral hazard. If the firm does not have enough in collateral for a loan, such as the case with Lehman Brothers, the Fed will let the market run its natural course with that firm under the understanding that there is no moral hazard. This process resembles a larger demonstration of the cost/benefit analysis: in the case of AIG and Bear Stearns, the benefit to saving those firms (the externalities failure
  • 14. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 14 would have produced) outweighed the initial short-run costs of monetary policy. In the case of Lehman Brothers, the costs exceeded the benefits where intervention would not have been effective. The Principle-Agent Problem and Policy. In addition to the moral hazards that can arise from intervention, the principle-agent problem also works to constrain what actions the Fed and government can make to achieve their goals. This problem occurs when a secondary party in a contract has more incentive to align its interest with the primary party, though it may not be in the best interest of the secondary party. In the labor market, this can be seen by the existence of minimum wage and its controversial nature. Both events gave birth to the notion of a high standard of living being normative public good. The introduction of unions into the economy specifically serve to ensure that this occurs, through pushing for wage control laws. These laws, when passed, increases the minimum amount that an employee is payed; however, due to employee wages being counted in the cost of doing business, marginal operating costs rise without the productivity to match the change. In addition to reduction in productivity, with the increased price of purchasing labor, firms will demand fewer workers and contribute to the inevitable unemployment rate increase. The principal-agent problem in the aggregate economy exists when firms must be willing to accept the price of labor increase, but see a decrease in performance. In order to solve this problem, the agent must induce the principal to act optimally. This typically the reason firms employ performance-based incentives (Spaulding, 2014); since these employees inherently have no incentive to maximize themselves due to the added benefit being non existent, firms sacrifice more in short-term costs to motivate their labor to increase long-term productivity.
  • 15. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 15 Executive Pay Changes and the Principle-Agent Problem: Microsoft Example. The topic of executive pay and fairness is one that sparks thoughts and ideas guided by many positive and normative economic institutions of thought. In addition to this topic, the issue of the principal-agent problem has been shown to be one that can not only decrease the value of their purchased labor inherently, but also be solved using proper performance measurements. In the case of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), a large technology company that manufactures raw and finished goods for computers and electronics, the issue was one decided on by shareholders. Investment Weekly News published an article in October 2009 on Microsoft's executive pay structure was approved to be decided by its shareholders (“Microsoft Board Authorizes 'Say-on- Pay; Advisory Vote on Executive Compensation, 2009). This decision was more than likely made because of the interest of the agents; in this case, the agents (shareholders) had the incentive to raise executive wages due the burden of corporate responsibility being on those executives and the self-interest of the shareholders to maximize company value. In other words, allowing the impartial shareholders to determine wages induces the executives to ensure the performance of the firm overall. On the firm's side, it allows for those who invest into the company (which raises company revenue) to determine the direction of the firm while still maintaining control of the firm. Due to the rising unemployment during this time, firms have the incentive to maintain its productivity or suffer declining profits. This is one reason why corporate structures would logically change during such an event: unemployment implies declining productivity, which leads to long-term problems that only firm leaders are responsible for. Their job is to foster growth for their firm and worsening economic conditions can cause questions on whether or not executives deserve the top pay they receive when the rest of the citizens continue to struggle.
  • 16. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 16 Conclusion and Future Study This paper analyzed the evolution of economic thinking in the cases of Great Depression and Great Recession and compared the actions of the central authorities (the government and the Federal Reserve) in each situation. Both periods of economic decline spawned from similar stock market and other conditions. An analysis such as this is crucial for the next generation of business leaders, politicians, and educators in that it provides an understanding to the role of thinking in all levels of the economy that contributed to the problems that arose. In addition to the understanding the economic thought and its evolution over time, an analysis like this can be used to understand the economic condition of the country going forward. The fallout from each era, seen by the sharp declines in personal income, private capital investment, and GDP, yielded different results and changed the way American viewed the role of the government. It forced the long-standing economic institution of capitalism to evolve by changing the aggregate view of work and production. By modifying the definition of a public good so that job stability and living wages are standard and has no implicit costs, governments responded to the Great Depression and Great Recession by increasing government expenditures, which caused citizens to become more dependent on what the government does. The problem with this dependency is that government did not fully for non-financial externalities, such as aggregate thought and perception of the usefulness of its actions; in other words, the government did not account for the real issues that each era brought with it. The Great Depression, characterized by the inability to get a job due to their relative unavailability and unlivable wage that came with most available job, was handled in America by transforming the notion of production into a right and a good and socializing business to fit requirements, thus setting
  • 17. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 17 precedent for the government to be the provider for its citizen's financial troubles. In comparison, the Great Recession focused on the income level of the citizens. Because of normative fairness debates, the government responded by using debt to assist firms expand into areas that would bring along with it high-wage job creation. Conversely, in both situations, countries such as Germany and China used their debt to focused on simplifying production internally and resulted in faster and stronger recovery in both nations compared to the United States of America. In addition to the role of the government, the role of the Federal Reserve was also evident. The Fed acted differently in each situation. In the Great Depression, the Fed used a contractionary monetary policy to limit the number of bank runs that occurred from the stock market conditions. In contrast, the stock market conditions during the Recession caused the Fed to invoke expansionary monetary policies, such as quantitative easing, to bring the economy to a state a full employment in the realm of the aggregate money supply. The way the Federal Reserve accomplished this task was through the purchasing of mortgage-backed securities. By using the main proponent of the disaster, the Fed artificially stabilized the economy; however, in keeping in mind its moral hazard problem, that left interest rates low on government bonds and quelled any chance of gaining additional value from them. This paper also discussed the labor market and how wages are determined. Through a working definition of the labor market supplier (employees) and those who demand labor (firms), a view of the problems that exist with the relationship between the two parties was explored. Two problems can arise from the wage debate: moral hazard and principal-agent. The moral hazard problem occurs post-contract when one party acts sub-optimally or has information
  • 18. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 18 that could have changed the terms of the original contract. It creates a free rider problem. The principal-agent problem exists when secondary parties are forced to align their interest with the primary party (principal), though the alignment of those interests may not be to the benefit of the secondary party. The evidence of this is seen in the discussion of executive pay. Using the recent wage determination change of Microsoft's executives, it can be seen that introducing a productivity-inducing action can solve both the moral hazard and principal-agent problems. One thing to consider for future study is the effect of monetary and fiscal policy on private capital investment. One of the problems with failings of economic policies is that it does not foster production directly. In the consumption function for GDP, a fiscal stimulus or a quantitative ease would result in an increase in consumption due to transfer payments. In a similar fashion to China and Germany's recession responses, monetary or fiscal policy could be engineered to foster production on a citizen level. This would again challenge the economic institution of capitalism in that the government is giving something that is not earned, but it is helping stimulate production on a microeconomic level. It still presents the same challenge as the implementation of the countercyclical policy. As seen from countercyclical policies in the past (the 2003 Economic Stimulus being most notable), the intended long-term effects of such actions do take a long-term to fully be evident. One striking reason for the focus on private capital investment is that since both the Depression and Recession had similar starts, they also had similar events leading up to it. The Great Depression saw the economic prosperity of the Roaring 20's while the Great Recession enjoyed the economic prosperity of the 1990's. In the 1990's, private capital investment increased 6.88% yearly. Using this model as a base, economic policy can be used to reproduce the effects
  • 19. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 19 of such times, if planned early enough.
  • 20. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 20 References Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M2 Money Stock[M2V], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/, January 25, 2015. Grunwald, M. (2010, August 26). How the Stimulus Is Changing America. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2013826,00.html Insurance companies; patent issued for method and system for reconciling equity hedge funds. (2013). Insurance Weekly News, , 111. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.snhu.edu/login? url=http://search.proquest.com/docview/1267773447?accountid=3783 Mankiw, N. (2013). Defending the One Percent. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(3), 21-34. Martinez, I. (2009, April 6). Latin America and the Great Depression. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from http://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2009/Martinezgreatdepression.html Microsoft corp.; Microsoft board authorizes "say-on-pay" advisory vote on executive compensation. (2009). Investment Weekly News, , 338. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.snhu.edu/login?url=http://search.proquest.com/docview/200894533? accountid=3783 Monetary policy in the great depression: What the fed did, a. (1992).Review - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,74(2), 3. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.snhu.edu/login? url=http://search.proquest.com/docview/227768298?accountid=3783 Pittenger, W. L., M.A.I. (2011). A brief look at the dodd-frank act. Real Estate Issues, 35(3), 23- 25. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.snhu.edu/login? url=http://search.proquest.com/docview/858668561?accountid=3783 Plafker, T. (2009, October 22). A Year Later, China's Stimulus Package Bears Fruit. Retrieved
  • 21. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 21 December 21, 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/23/business/global/23iht- rglobalchin.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Quantity Theory Of Money Definition | Investopedia. (2007, May 17). Retrieved February 1, 2015, from http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantity_theory_of_money.asp Rosenblum, H., DiMartino, D., Renier, J., & Alm, R. (2008, October 1). Fed Intervention: Managing Moral Hazard in Financial Crises. Retrieved February 2, 2015, from http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/eclett/2008/el0810.pdf Santoni, G. (1986, November 1). The Employment Act of 1946: Some History Notes. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/86/11/Employment_Nov1986.pdf Smiley, G. (2008, January 1). Great Depression. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html Spaulding, W. (2014, January 1). Wage Differentials. Retrieved December 8, 2014, from http://thismatter.com/economics/wage-differentials.htm Spector, D. (2012, April 3). MAP OF THE DAY: What The Mass Migration Of The 1930s Looked Like. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from http://www.businessinsider.com/great- depression-population-change-2012-4 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 1.1.6. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars,”www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?reqid=6&step=3&isuri=1&600=1(accessed January 31, 2015). U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 2.1. Personal Income and Its Disposition,”www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?
  • 22. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 22 reqid=6&step=3&isuri=1&600=1(accessed January 31, 2015). Weber, M. (2011, November 1). INSTITUTE FOR HISTORICAL REVIEW. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from http://www.ihr.org/other/economyhitler2011.html Zheng, G. (2011). Wagner act (1935). In The American economy: A historical encyclopedia. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.snhu.edu/login?qurl=http %3A%2F%2Fsearch.credoreference.com.ezproxy.snhu.edu%2Fcontent%2Fentry %2Fabcamerecon%2Fwagner_act_1935%2F0
  • 23. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 23 Appendix A Personal Income change during the Great Depression (1929 – 1935, annualized) Appendix B
  • 24. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 24 GDP and Private Capital Investment during the Great Depression (1929-1935, annualized)
  • 25. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 25 Appendix C Personal income during the Great Recession (2008-2009, quarterly)
  • 26. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION 26 Appendix D GDP and private capital investment during the Great Recession (2008-2009, quarterly)