1. Lithium Working Papers Series
The Future of the Lithium Market*
Juan Carlos Zuleta Calderón
* Paper presented at the Second Lithium Supply & Markets
Conference organized by Industrial Minerals held from January
26 to 28, 2010 in Las Vegas, USA

2. 2
The Future of the Lithium Market *
Juan Carlos Zuleta Calderón **
Abstract
In a presentation at the inaugural Lithium Supply & Markets Conference held in Santiago in January
2009
1
, three factors were suggested to determine whether lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries will be
adopted by the global automobile industry in its transition to electric propulsion, namely: the oil
market, technological development and resistance to change. Here this argument is reviewed and
extended in light of some important recent events that have occurred in the world economy. First,
the oil market is reanalyzed not only in terms of yearly oil prices and their volatility but also in relation
to average oil prices and volatility for the last 12 years. Second, technological development is now
discussed in reference to different types of Li-ion batteries as well as other classes of rechargeable
lithium batteries that are beginning to appear in the market. Third, resistance to change is
complemented with acceptance to change. In addition, the original argument is further developed to
show how the above mentioned factors interact among each other and the way the lithium battery
market operates within the Lithium Supply Chain to conform the basis for a more compact model of
lithium battery adoption. Lastly, Bolivia´s lithium prospects are analyzed to see the efforts it is
currently making to develop the world´s largest lithium resource, together with the physical, political
and social challenges, and a preliminary personal view on the industrialization of the Salar de Uyuni.
The oil market
Once the economic recession has been declared to be over, oil prices have
averaged around US$ 76 a barrel during the last quarter of 2009. As anticipated in a
previous article, they could not in fact drop forever and a long run perspective of the
world economy did indeed call for not-so-low oil prices to avoid a supply crisis2
. The
argument that “Peak oil” and climate change may prevent an ever-lasting decrease
of oil prices also appears to be quite relevant today. In addition, although 2009
closed with a yearly average oil price about 38% lower than the value obtained in
2008, this did not diminish the intensity of the electric car race. Of course, prices
are not alone in the oil market as determinants of adoption of Li batteries; price
volatility (i.e. uncertainty) counts as well. But this variable showed a much lower
figure in 2009 than in 2008. Yet, again, the lithium rush was seen to be on the rise.
At first sight, the findings above would demolish the original contention that both oil
price and its volatility may have an important effect on adoption of Li batteries.
However, the argument remains intact if yearly oil prices and their volatility (as
measured by yearly standard deviations) are examined in relation to average values
for a given period of years3
.
* This paper was published by parts on SeekingAlpha.com (See: http://seekingalpha.com/article/188489-the-future-of-the-lithium-
market-part-i, and http://seekingalpha.com/article/188499-the-future-of-the-lithium-market-part-ii).
** Independent lithium economics analyst based in Bolivia
1
See Juan Carlos Zuleta, “Can the Inauguration of the Lithium Era Be Taken for Granted?”, paper presented
at the First Lithium Supply & Martkets Conference held in Santiago Chile in January 2009.
2
See Juan Carlos Zuleta, “Lithium´s Electric Shock”, Industrial Minerals, January 2009.
3
Some time was devoted to define an appropriate period of time for this analysis. To begin with, this effort
was constrained by data availability: Whereas WTI at Cushing provides daily oil prices for the period
01/02/1986 – 12/30/2009, Brent offers such information for the period 05/20/1987 – 12/30/2009 only.
Secondly, from 1986 or 1987 up to 1999 oil prices averaged each year no more than 24,53 dollars a barrel or
23,76 dollars a barrel (depending on the data utilized), but from 2000 on they started to climb and would never
come back to previous figures. However, 1998 was an atypical year since it reflected the lowest values for both
complete series. So it appeared reasonable to establish 1998-2009 as the period of analysis for this study.

3. 3
As shown in Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2, both yearly average oil prices and
volatility clearly reflect figures well above their corresponding total averages (for the
period 1998-2009) during the last 5 and 3 years, respectively. The numbers attained
in 2009 do not seem to be as near to the ground. Albeit low, they are still well above
the average for the last 12 years.
Hence because yearly oil prices (beginning 2005) and their volatility (starting in
2007) remained above the average figures over the period 1998-20094
, the trend
towards electrification in the car industry as well as adoption of advanced lithium
batteries to come to grips with this development intensified5
. This resolves the
puzzle as to why despite the recent fall of oil prices and their volatility both car and
Table 1
Movements and Volatility of Oil Prices
Yearly
Average
Yearly
Standard
Deviation
Yearly
Average
Yearly
Standard
Deviation
1998 14,42 1,56 12,48 1,58
1999 19,34 4,54 17,90 5,03
2000 30,38 2,97 28,66 3,40
2001 25,98 3,57 24,46 3,41
2002 26,18 3,21 24,99 2,94
2003 31,08 2,63 28,85 2,48
2004 41,51 5,79 38,26 5,64
2005 56,64 6,26 54,57 6,16
2006 66,05 5,60 65,16 5,87
2007 72,34 12,88 72,44 11,76
2008 99,89 28,46 97,19 28,70
2009 61,88 13,37 61,67 12,32
Total
Average
45,47 7,57 43,89 7,44
Year
Brent (US Dollars Per
Barrel)
WTI at Cushing US Dollars
Per Barrel)
Source: Energy Information Administration. Yearly averages and standard
deviations were obtained using daily oil prices.
4
Using a longer period of time (1986-2009), both yearly average oil prices and volatility show numbers above
their corresponding total averages during the last 6 years.
5
This argument appears to be supported by at least the following facts. First, in November 2005, A123
Systems announced the development of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells based on research licensed from
MIT which have been in production since 2006 and are being used in consumer products, aviation products,
automotive hybrid systems and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) conversions (See:http://en.wikipedia
.org/wiki/Lithium_ion_ battery). Second, beginning 2006 ThunderSky Lithium Battery Limited have been
commercializing LPP batteries for use in Do it Yourself style electric car conversions (See: http://en.wikipedia.
org/wiki/Thunder Sky) and, currently, in the electric cars made by Aptera and QUICC (See: http://en.wiki
pedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery). Third, the announcement by General Motors in January
2007 that by 2010 it will introduce the first mass-produced Li-on powered PHEV into the market and the
almost immediate responses coming from the rest of car makers of the planet.

4. 4
battery manufacturers are still investing billions of dollars in research and
development of different electric cars and advanced lithium batteries. It also
suggests that both car and battery makers may be placing more emphasis on both
yearly oil prices and volatility in relation to total average numbers over a given
period of years rather than simply yearly figures for their decision to invest in the
development of electric cars and advanced lithium batteries.
Figure 1
14,42
19,34
30,38
25,98 26,18
31,08
41,51
56,64
66,05
72,34
99,89
61,88
1,6
4,5 3,0 3,6 3,2 2,6
5,8 6,3 5,6
12,9
28,5
13,4
45,5
7,6
0,00
25,00
50,00
75,00
100,00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USDollarsPerBarrel
WTIOil Prices
(Averages and Standard Deviations)
Yearly Average Yearly Stand. Dev. TOTAL AVERAGE TOTAL STAND. DEV.
Years
Source: Table 1.
Figure 2
12,48
17,90
28,66
24,46 24,99
28,85
38,26
54,57
65,16
72,44
97,19
61,67
1,6
5,0 3,4 3,4 2,9 2,5
5,6 6,2 5,9
11,8
28,7
12,3
43,9
7,4
0,00
25,00
50,00
75,00
100,00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USDollarsPerBarrel
Brent Oil Prices
(Averages and Standard Deviations)
Yearly Average Yearly Stand. Dev. TOTAL AVERAGE TOTAL STAND. DEV.
Years
Source: Table 1.

5. 5
Technological Development
In just a year since the inaugural LS&M09 conference, technological development in
the advanced lithium battery industry appears to have progressed significantly, both
in terms of its focus and the number of new lithium batteries that are reportedly part
of different research projects.
In terms of its focus, it is now amply acknowledged that breakthrough innovations
are likely to take place in different kinds of Li-ion batteries, not just lithium iron
phoshate (LFP) batteries6
. After the hype generated by the launching of the first
mass-produced range extended electric vehicle (REEV) by Chinese firm Buying
your Dreams (BYD) using LFP batteries in December 2008, the concentration now
appears to have shifted towards Manganese Spinel Cathodes manufactured by
Lucky Goldstar (LG) Chemical from Korea which is working with its US subsidiary
Compact to provide Li-ion batteries to General Motors (GM) for its Volt car, and
NEC from Japan, Nissan´s official Li-ion battery supplier for its Leaf automobile.
But there is also an important effort underway with lithium-nickel cathodes by
Panasonic, which has recently established a partnership with Tesla to help it lower
the cost of its Li-ion batteries and extend the range of its cars including the planned
model S, a cheaper and more efficient electric car than its Roadster, which still uses
a lithium cobalt battery. According to a recent article7
, “Panasonic’s partnership with
Tesla is part of a larger strategy to dominate the market for advanced automotive
batteries”. Panasonic already leads the production of nickel-metal hydride (NiMH)
batteries for hybrid vehicles. With Sanyo, the largest Li-ion battery maker in the
world, a subsidiary it bought in December 2009, it is likely to continue providing
NiMH batteries to Toyota, Honda and Ford, and start “manufacturing lithium-ion
batteries for the plug-in hybrid version of the Toyota Prius”. Likewise, the nanowire
battery invented in 2007 has constituted another interesting Li-ion research project
in 20098
. It essentially consists of replacing the standard graphite anode with
silicon, which is meant to store ten times more lithium than graphite http://en.wiki
pedia. org/wiki/ Nanowire_battery). Lastly, Hyundai is reportedly expected to use
Lithium-ion Polymer (LiPo) batteries, which have technologically evolved from Li-ion
batteries, for its Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_
polymer battery).
With respect to new research projects, last year Lithium-Sulfur batteries have also
received some attention. Following a Technology Review article, these batteries
have potentially a higher energy density than lithium-ion batteries, but have typically
been too expensive, unsafe, and unreliable to make them commercially available.
Of these problems, perhaps the most difficult one remains cost mainly because they
use lithium metal, the most expensive form of lithium9
. In addition, in November
2009 the University of Dayton Research Institute has announced the development
6
One important exception is A123 Systems, which has just struck a deal to supply LFP batteries to Fisker
Automotive for the Fisker Karma PHEV to be launched late this year in the US.
7
See Kevin Bullis, “Tesla to Use High-Energy Batteries from Panasonic”, Technology Review, January 13,
2010 (http://www.technologyreview.com/business/24352/?nlid=2664).
8
See Katherine Bourzac, “More energy in Batteries”, Technology Review, November 06, 2009
(http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23893/).
9
See Kevin Bullis, “Revisiting Lithium-Sulfur Batteries”, Technology Review, May 22, 2009
(http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22689/).

6. 6
of the world´s first solid-state, rechargeable lithium air battery, designed to address
the fire and explosion risk of other lithium rechargeable batteries and pave the way
for development of large-sized lithium rechargeables for a number of industry
applications, including hybrid and electric cars (See: http://news.udayton. edu/News
Article/?contentId=25610). These batteries are purported to have higher energy
density than ion batteries due to the lighter cathode (oxygen) they use and the fact
that this material is freely available in the environment and does not need to be
stored in the battery.
Much has been said about the lower power density of batteries compared with
lithium fuels. Li-ion batteries achieve the highest density of 200.2 Wh/kg, whereas
gasoline attains 12899.2 Wh/kg (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density).
Hence the energy density of gasoline would be 64.4 times higher than that of Li-ion
batteries. These numbers are essentially consistent with Engerer and Horn
(2010)10
. However, following a study from the Technical University of Zurich, cited
by these authors, when the higher efficiency of the electric motor is accounted for,
the energy density of gasoline would be net about 14-15 times higher than that of
Li-ion batteries. Using Li-air batteries could therefore contribute to reducing
substantially this relation or even inverting it11
. It should then come as no surprise
that Li-air batteries are considered to be one of “the five technologies that could
change everything” over the next few decades (See: http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB10001424052748703746604574461342682276 898.html#articleTabs%3D
comments). The question remains as to the impact of this development on the
lithium market, particularly considering that this kind of batteries will probably use
more lithium than Li-ion ones12
.
Under normal conditions, it seems reasonable to expect that technological
development in the next ten years will follow a similar diversified path as the one
observed in 2009 with Li-ion batteries aimed at facilitating the launching of the first
mass-produced electric cars in the US and other developed countries, while starting
to gradually focus more on Li-air batteries, which are likely to take over the market
towards the beginning of the next decade. However, whether or not Li-ion batteries
become some sort of “transitional technology” will definitely depend on how soon Li-
air batteries are commercially available.
10
See Hella Engerer and Manfred Horn, “Natural Gas Vehicles: An Option for Europe”, Energy Policy, Vol.
38, pp. 1017-1029, 2010.
11
When fully developed, Li-air batteries are expected to have practical specific energies of 1000.8 Wh/kg
(See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_air_battery). So the “gross” energy density of gasoline would be
only 12,89 times higher that of Li-air batteries. After accounting for the higher efficiency of the electric motor,
the energy density of gasoline would end up being net just about 3.2 times higher than that of Li-air batteries.
However, following the same source of information, theoretically, Li-air batteries could achieve even higher
specific energies: 5200 Wh/kg (including oxygen) and 11140 Wh/kg (excluding oxygen). With these values, it
would be possible to invert the relation in favor of Li-air batteries because the energy density of such advanced
storage systems would become between 1.7 and 3.7 times higher than that of gasoline.
12
As of now, there is no information on lithium requirement per kWh in Li-air batteries. However, since they
use lithium for both their anode and cathode, chances are they will require more lithium per kWh overall than
Li-ion batteries. This is also endorsed by the fact that the lithium utilized in the anode is metallic lithium.
Under these circumstances, one can wonder whether this will place additional pressure on the supply of lithium
in the world in about a decade or so.

7. 7
Acceptance of and resistance to change
As originally defined, resistance to change is referred to actions by “governments,
companies and individuals with vested interests to prevent the emergence of lithium
battery technologies mainly because this will put at serious risk their current or
future privileges or advantages”13
. Here this concept is extended so as to begin
discussing also about the positive side of the coin, namely the activities performed
by the same players to promote the adoption of such advanced energy storage
systems in their plausible search for national energy independence or security,
sustainable development or just more efficient forms of transportation. For reasons
of space, in what follows, the topic will be examined once again with reference to
governments and companies only.
In terms of governments, last year it was argued that some oil producing countries
may be indeed “seeking a lead in clean energy”14
. But of course this is probably not
the case for all of them, particularly those that have not been able to sufficiently
diversify their economies. So there is always a possibility that some oil producing
countries would be interested in the failure of lithium. On the other hand, 2009 has
been emblematic in terms of the billionaire financial support provided by the
government to the emerging electric car and lithium battery industries in the US.
Nevertheless, the behaviour of the US government has not been exempt from some
contradictions and confusion15
. In addition, tax incentives aimed at the introduction
of “green cars” are beginning to proliferate all over the world.
Regarding companies, last year this topic was taken up exclusively in terms of the
role of state-owned petroleum enterprises in the adoption of Li-ion batteries by the
car industry16
. But of course other companies may have to do a great deal with the
lithium business as well, even within the car industry itself. One case in point is
Toyota17
.
Somewhat surprisingly, there are some signs that Toyota’s strategy has started to
change significantly by the end of 2009. Two reasons appear to explain this
behaviour. First, following the tremendous hype produced by other major car
makers such as GM and Nissan that by the end of this year will be launching the
first mass-produced lithium-powered REEVs and BEVs in the US, it seems that
Toyota has begun to realize that their previous arguments against use of lithium in
different kinds of electric vehicles (Li-ion is not a proven technology and there is no
13
See Juan Carlos Zuleta, “Revisiting Peak Lithium or Lithium in Abundance”, EV World.Com,
(http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1491), June 24, 2008.
14
See Juan Carlos Zuleta, “Can the Inauguration of the Lithium Era Be Taken for Granted?”, paper presented
at the First Lithium Supply & Markets Conference held in Santiago Chile in January 2009.
15
See Juan Carlos Zuleta, “The Obama Audit Task Force and the Volt”, EV World.Com, (http://evworld.
com/blogs/index. cfm?authorid=209& blogid=728& archive=1), April 18, 2009; Juan Carlos Zuleta, “The
Illusion of Lithium Batteries?”, EV World.Com, (http://evworld.com/article.cfm? storyid=1688) April 22,
2009; Juan Carlos Zuleta, “Critiquing John Petersen´s `The Plug-in Vehicles Scam`”, Seeking Alpha.Com,
(http://seekingalpha.com/article/134927-critiquing-john-petersens-the-plug-in-vehicle-scam), May 04 2009.
16
See Juan Carlos Zuleta, “Can the Inauguration of the Lithium Era Be Taken for Granted?”, paper presented
at the First Lithium Supply & Markets Conference held in Santiago Chile in January 2009.
17
For a critical view of Toyota`s and Honda`s perspective on plug-in electric cars, see: Juan Carlos Zuleta,
“Why Toyota and Honda Dislike Lithium?”, EV World.Com, (http://evworld.com/blogs/index.cfm?authorid=
209&blogid=711 &archive=1), March 29, 2009.

8. 8
sufficient lithium on earth) can no longer stand on their own. In this connection, as
limited as it might be, its new plan aimed at putting 500 lithium-ion-powered PHEVs
on fleet-trial in Japan, Europe and the US, must be seen as an important step
forward. Second, as is well known, Panasonic has been Toyota’s partner in the
production of nickel metal hydride (NMH) batteries for its “star” hybrid electric
vehicle (HEV) “Prius”. But Panasonic’s recent acquisition of Sanyo may unfold a
new set of circumstances for Toyota. It could in fact enable the motor giant to
become a key player in the new electric car market to be formed following the
launching of GM’s Volt and Nissan’s Leaf later this year.
Interactions among the Different Determinants of Adoption of Li Batteries
As shown in Figure 3, the arguments previously discussed may become more
complex. In what follows an effort is made to show some examples of how
adoption itself influences its very determinants and how they in turn interact among
each other to form a cumulative causation model.
Relation # 1: As adoption of Li batteries proceeds, the demand for oil could tend to
be diminished, eventually leading to a price decrease which discourages adoption
of Li batteries. This could be ameliorated by a pro-change government that places a
tax on gasoline, while providing more funding for technological development, for
example.
Relation # 2: As adoption of Li batteries proceeds, acceptance of change will
increase (and resistance to change will decrease), further encouraging adoption as
well as financial support for technological development and government policies
aimed at energy independence.
Relation # 3: As adoption of Li batteries proceeds, technological development will
be encouraged, further promoting adoption, while tending to diminish the demand
for oil, and eventually leading to a price decrease which discourages adoption of Li
batteries. As in Relation # 1, this could be controlled by a pro-change government
with some specific policy directed to limit the supply of oil, for example.
Figure 3
OIL MARKET
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
ACCEPTANCE
OF / RESISTANCE
TO CHANGE
ADOPTION OF LI BATTERIES
Source: Based on Juan Carlos Zuleta, “Revisiting Peak Lithium or
Lithium in Abundance”, EV World.Com, June 24, 2008.

9. 9
The Lithium Supply Chain
To enrich the analysis, in Figure 4, the notion of Lithium Supply Chain is introduced.
In its most basic form, this concept implies a set of relations among the three
markets in terms of supply and demand which can be explained as follows. First,
the EV Market demands Li-batteries which in turn requires lithium from the resource
market. Second, the resource market supplies lithium to the Li battery market which
in turn supplies Li batteries to the EV market. It is clear that, other things being
equal, the new markets also interact with the determinants of Li battery adoption,
while they may themselves be influenced by other factors.
A new set of relations can therefore be established as follows.
Relation # 4: As the price of oil increases, the demand for Li may tend to increase,
because the demand for Li batteries will be increased due to an increase in the
demand for electric cars. But as the supply of Li increases, the price of oil will
decrease because the supply of Li batteries may also increase, encouraging the
production of electric cars, while further discouraging the demand for oil.
Relation # 5: As technological development (say of Li-air batteries) proceeds, more
and more Li will be required because the demand for Li batteries will also be
increased, due to a greater demand for electric cars. But if there is no sufficient
lithium to meet the additional requirement of the resource, the prices of lithium will
increase discouraging that specific type of technological development, because the
demand for Li batteries will have most likely decreased due to a reduction in the
demand for electric cars in view of the increase of the cost of the batteries.
Relation # 6: As the acceptance of change (say on the part of the government)
increases, the demand for electric cars will also augment tending to diminish the
price of electric cars which in turn will further encourage the acceptance of change.
Figure 4
OIL MARKET
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
ACCEPTANCE
OF / RESISTANCE
TO CHANGE
LI
BATTERY
MARKET
LI
MARKET
EV
MARKET
LITHIUM SUPPLY CHAIN
Source: Figure 3.

10. 10
Bolivia´s Lithium Prospects
As is well known, with its 5,4 million MT of Li content (US Geological Survey),
Bolivia holds the world´s largest reserves of lithium. Since May 2008 the
government has been developing a pilot plant to obtain around 480MT of Li
Carbonate a year. As of October 2009 the progress of the plant showed a delay of
at least 6 months which implies that it will become fully operational only in 2011. In
addition, the government has announced that it will invest US$ 350 million on an
industrial plant to produce between 20,000 and 30,000 MT of Li Carbonate
beginning 2015.
The lithium endeavour in Bolivia faces at least three different kinds of challenges.
First, at the political level, the government has decided to go on its own According
to the Project Director the plant will be completely owned by the state because: (1)
Bolivia has the largest reserves of lithium in the world; (2) that is the only way to
ensure that the benefits will be reinvested in the region and in the country; (3)
Bolivia should guarantee the supply of Li to the world on clear market conditions;
and (4) exploitation and industrialization of Li should be sustainable and integral.