The document discusses analyzing trade-offs at the landscape/watershed level. It describes moving from analyzing indicators individually to analyzing trade-offs and synergies between indicators like economic, environmental and social factors. It also discusses challenges like accounting for the population of farms and spatial interactions, and using representative or sample farms, simulations, and other parsimonious approaches to analyze these trade-offs ex-ante at larger scales.

1. Trade-offs at landscape/watershed level
The assessment
Jetse Stoorvogel
Soil Geography and Landscape Group
Wageningen University
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

2. Trade-offs at landscape/watershed level
The assessment
 From indicators to trade-offs/synergies
 The unique element of the landscape/watershed level
 Analysing the tradeoffs
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

3. The indicators
The objective The indicators
 Rural development  Economic indicators
 Environmental sustainability  Environmental indicators
 Payments for Ecosystem services  Social Indicators
 ...  ...
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

4. Single factor solutions
The case of soil erosion
in Machakos, Kenya
More people, Less erosion
Tiffen et al., 1994
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

5. Analysis in a single dimension
The indicators
$
 Economic indicators
Cost/benefit
 Environmental indicators
analysis
 Social Indicators
 ...
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

6. Trade-off analysis
Environmental
quality
Trade-off
Agricultural productivity
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

7. Trade-off analysis
Environmental
quality
Synergy
Agricultural productivity
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

8. Scale levels – starting point
Regression models at two scale levels for arable crops in Ecuador
De Koning et al., 1998
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

9. Characteristics of different scale levels
Farm
Landscape/
Watershed
Region/
Continent
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

10. How do we deal with the population of
farmers? – representative farms
Farm Farm Farm Farm
Type Type Type Type
I II III IV
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

11. How do we deal with the population of
farmers? – sample of farms
Sample of farms
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

12. How do we deal with the population of
farmers? – population of farms
Statistical description
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

13. How do we deal with the population of
farmers? – population of farms
Strata Strata Strata Strata
I II III IV
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

14. How do we deal with the population of
farmers? – All farms
All farms
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

15. Simulating representative farms
 How representative are representative farms?
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

16. Example: variation in a case Western Kenya
Variable Explained variance
# of adults 26.6 %
Dist. to market 0.7%
Farm size 5.3%
Education 64.6%
Total TLU 1.4%
Fertilizer 0.8%
Salasya and Stoorvogel, 2010
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

17. Simulating representative farms
 How representative are representative farms?
 Generalization of the farm scale models
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

18. Simulating a sample of farms
 Inherent productivity
(crop growth simulation models)
 Land management: crop selection and
management
(econometric simulation model)
 Environmental impact
(Erosion, pesticide leaching, fertility
loss….)
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

19. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

20. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

21. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

22. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

23. Pathways of poverty
Manure availability
Maize price
Poverty
Low
High
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

24. Simulating a population of farms
 What is the question?
● Comparison of two systems (Adoption, PES, CC)
 Parsimonious approach
● E.g., Adoption is an economic choice
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

25. Simulating a population of farms
PES
Opportunity cost
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

26. Simulating a population of farms
PES
Derivation of adoption
rate from spatial
distribution of
opportunity cost
Case3
PES0
Case 2
( ) Rate
100
Case 1
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

27. Climate change impacts for Vihaga (Kenya)
Seasonal loss
% of farm population
Claessens et al., 2012
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

28. Simulating all farms
 The case of spatial interactions
Claessens et al., 2010
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen

29. Tradeoffs for the
landscape/watershed
 Idiosyncrasy
 Standardization
(harmonization)
 parsimonious
approaches
 Ex-ante analysis
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen