5. Assessment of everything? Understand everything?
Reality - assessment of priorities
Adrian Judd, OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group Cumulative Effects Assessment
Adapted from Voss & Schmidt
6. Applied science - wicked problems
Rittel & Webber 1973, Churchman 1976
Super wicked problems
1. Time is running out
2. No central authority
3. Those seeking to solve the
problem are also causing it
4. Policies discount the future
irrationally
7. Why use ecosystem approach?
• Political need – international and national commitments
• Operational benefits - trade-offs explicit, ownership of
process, spectrum of approaches able to adapt to complex
challenges
Image: ICES
8. Higher order objectives for the marine system?
Iceland
on route: Preservation of
ecosystems & sustainable
exploitation of resources
Norway
Good ecosystem health &
sustainable use
Regional MPs
EU
Good Environmental
Status, MSFD
Canada
None
USA
No but
many mandates
Foran et al 2016
11. Conceptual model of the Pacific herring
social–ecological system.
Levin et al 2016.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ehs
2.1213/full#ehs21213-fig-0001
Just and safe
operating space
13. Voinov et al. 2016
Adaptive &
revisiting
Co-production of knowledge
14. How best to provide knowledge
to reach/reconcile objectives?
15. I’ve got a tool, and
I’m going to use it!
What’s the question?
16. Are we geared up to address applied
questions?
Impossible to achieve realism, precision, and generality in one model.
Model creation requires trade-off of one of these, often conflicts with
the desire of end-users.
Models are often employed without consideration of their limitations,
e.g. projecting into unknown space without generalism, or fitting
empirical models and inferring causality.
Dickey-Collas et al. 2014. Hazard warning: model misuse ahead.
17. Veracity of evidence
Mixing evidence of differing integrity, sources & certainty
Uusitalo et al. 2016. Exploring methods for predicting multiple pressures on ecosystem recovery.
23. Indicators for management
Miloslavich, et al., GOOS Biol EOV
http://ioc-goos.org/biology
Strong causal links between human activity
creating pressures & changes in ecosystem state
24. DPSIR / APSR
Gimpel et al., 2013; Knights et al., 2013
Greenstreet et al., 2009; Reiss et al., 2010
25. Setting reference points
Pressure indicator
Stateindicator
good
bad
0 high
maximum
?
other information
needed to define
acceptable pressure
→metric
max change
of slope
unsuitable
indicator
From Trenkel et al., and similar to Samhouri et al 2010
26. Not always so clear …
Policy objective set but:
1. insufficient evidence to define targets & formal state assessment
2. links to anthropogenic pressures are either weak or not sufficiently
understood to underpin specific management advice
Shephard et al 2015
Photo: Icelandic Wilderness
27. Survelliance indicators
Shephard et al. 2015. Surveillance indicators and their use in implementation of the MSFD
take action
check pressures
review knowledge
take action
check pressures
review knowledge
28. Priorities for EBFM, list of 26
Science Literature Fishing industry
1 Consider Ecosystem Connections Sustainability
2 Appropriate Spatial & Temporal Scales Develop Long -Term Objectives
3 Adaptive Management Stakeholder Involvement
4 Use of Scientific Knowledge Use of All Forms of Knowledge
5 Stakeholder Involvement Use of Incentives
6 Integrated Management Consider Economic Context
7 Sustainability Acknowledge Uncertainty
Long et al. 2016. Key principles of ecosystem-based management: Fishers perspective
30. Bounded rationality in decision making
rationality of individuals is limited by information they have,
cognitive limitations of their minds, & finite amount of
time they have to make a decision.
Image: tellthemisaidsomething.com/2013/
32. What is ICES?
• Intergovernmental science organization
• 20 countries collaborating to improve
marine science
• Network of over 4000 active research
scientists
• North Atlantic focus
33. ICES provides the knowledge/evidence
for decision making.
“information, knowledge, and advice on the
sustainable management of human activities
affecting, and affected by, marine ecosystems.”
34. Building knowledge for advice
Information
ICES data centre
Understanding
ICES science
Advice for management
ICES advice
35. Application of evidence base
Consequences of catching
fish on its own stock &
management targets
Impacts of fishing on ecosystem,
descriptions and targets
Consideration of priority pressures
on ecosystem structure & function
and consequences for societyICES Advice
40. Workshop January 2016
Explored strengths &
weaknesses of recent
implementation of Ecosystem
Based Management,
focused on challenges
for cross sectoral approaches.
Marshak et al. 2016. International perceptions of an integrated, multi-sectoral EAM.
41. Ingredients for success in EBM
• Develop frameworks for implementation
• Acknowledge power of/ownership between sectors
• Trade-offs
• Use whatever governance mandate exist
• Find a honest champion
• Use momentum but temper expectations
42. 8 tenets for scientists, policy-makers, and managers
(i) engage with players early, often, and continually;
(ii) conduct rigorous human dimensions research;
(iii) recognize the importance of transparently selecting indicators;
(iv) set ecosystem targets to create a system of EBM accountability;
(v) establish a formal mechanism(s) for the review of IEA science;
(vi) serve current management needs, but not at the expense of more integrative ocean management;
(vii) provide a venue for EBM decision-making that takes full advantage of IEA products;
(viii) embrace realistic expectations about IEA science and its implementation.
Photo: Icelandic Wilderness
Samhouri et al 2014
43. For EBM, how we develop & provide the knowledge
is as important as the knowledge itself.
As they leave the science closet,
knowledge brokers need to be aware &
empathetic to the arena they are entering.
Providing the knowledge for
ecosystem based management
