Despite ongoing lockdowns, European optimism about economic recovery remains steady, except in the United Kingdom, where it is at its highest of the pandemic.
These exhibits are based on survey data collected in the France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom from February 23–27, 2021. Check back for regular updates on the European consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.
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McKinsey Survey: European consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis
1. McKinsey & Company 1
We have seen six fundamental shifts to consumer behavior,
some of which will have a lasting impact
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
4. Stickiness
of digital
2. Signs of
spend recovery
5. Rebalancing
of homebody
economy
6. Evolution
of loyalty
3. Vaccination
triggering spend
upside at
early stage1
1. Steady overall
optimism
Up to 92%
intend to continue
purchasing online
post-COVID-19
(from those who
currently do)
42%
of consumers expect
“extra” spend in
2021 to reward
themselves
67%
of consumers have
changed stores,
brands or the way
they shop
29%
of consumers have
invested in new uses
of their living space
at home
21%
of consumers are
optimistic about
economic recovery
vs 16% in
November, driven
by the UK
optimism boost
+16 increase in
net spend intent
among vaccinated
people vs those
interested in
vaccination for
Germany, +11 for
Spain, but -3 for UK
1. France, Italy not included.
2. McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
European countries are less optimistic than most other markets
Steady overall optimism
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100%
due to rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
10 14 14 18 17
32
21
31
20
37
43
45 46
53 59
50
62
52 67
61
47 41 39
30 24 18 17 17 12
2
25
71
4
‘Optimistic’ change vs November
survey, percentage point +9
+9 +3 +6 +13 +7
0 +4 +3 +5
+1
Mixed The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression/
fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
Brazil
2/20–3/1
Germany
2/23–27
UK
2/23–27
Spain
2/23–27
Italy
2/23–27
France
2/23–27
Japan
2/24–27
US
2/18–22
India
2/20–3/3
China
2/20–3/8
Mexico
2/20–3/2
3. McKinsey & Company 3
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
1. Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Optimism regarding European economic recovery has stabilized at
the same level seen in April, at the height of the first virus wave
Steady overall optimism
29% 32% 30% 31% 32% 32% 30% 31% 31%
24%
52%
52% 54% 55% 53% 54%
55% 53%
55%
19% 16% 16% 14% 15% 14% 15% 14% 16%
21%
June 18–21
Mar 20–22 Mar 26–29 Apr 2–5 April 30–May 3
April 16–19 Sept 24–27
May 21–24
55%
Nov 9–16 Feb 23–27
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 5,232; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 5,338 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 6/18–
6/21/2020, n = 5,645; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 5,641; 4/30–5/03/2020, n = 5,631; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 5,623; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 5,645, 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 5,614; 3/20–3/23/2020, n = 5,035 (Italy, France, Germany, Spain, UK, Portugal),
sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Europe
2020 2021
Mixed: The economy will
be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show
regression/fall into
lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy
will rebound within 2–3
months and grow just as
strong as or stronger than
before COVID-19
4. McKinsey & Company 4
Confidence levels have slightly increased in most markets, with the
strongest improvement in the United Kingdom
Steady overall optimism
1. Q: How is your overall confidence level on economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
37 40
34 35 37
32
51
49
49
53 52
50
12 11
17 12 11
18
Nov
9-16
Sept
24-27
April
30-
May
3
Feb
23-27
May
21-24
June
18-21
17 16 16 17 18 17
60 64 63
66
59
23 20 21 17
23 24
Feb
23-27
May
21-24
June
18-21
Apr
30-
May
3
Sept
24-27
Nov
9-16
59
35 37
31
26
33
21
51 49
57
60
54
62
14 14 12 14 13 17
Jun
18-21
May
21-
May
24
Apr
30-
May
3
Sep
24-27
Nov
9-16
Feb
23-27
42 39 39 42 40
31
43 47 48
47
47
52
15 13 13 11 14
17
Apr
30 -
May
3
May
21-24
Jun
18-21
Nov
9-16
Sep
24-27
Feb
24-26
24
35
30
37
31
18
58
50
55
47
52
53
18 15 15 17 17
30
Nov
9-16
May
21-24
April
30-
May
3
Feb
18-
22
June
18-21
Sept
24-27
Optimistic Mixed Pessimistic
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
UK France
Germany Italy
Spain
5. McKinsey & Company 5
Household income1
% of respondents
Household spending1
% of respondents
Household savings1
% of respondents
European consumers experienced increased spending and savings
in February, but no change in income since September
Steady overall optimism
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 ; 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 5,232; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 5,338 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK),
sampled to match European general population 18+ years
1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected your (household) income, overall household spending, and amount of income put away as savings over the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Increase slightly/a lot
Reduce slightly/a lot About the same
31%
3% 3%
65%
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
64%
33%
4%
64%
33%
Past 2 weeks
13%
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
11%
52%
37%
50%
37%
16%
48%
36%
Past 2 weeks
19%
17% 17%
54%
Past 2 weeks
33%
29%
Past 2 weeks
50% 49%
32%
Past 2 weeks
Sept 24–27 Nov 9–16 Feb 23–27 Sept 24–27 Nov 9–16 Feb 23–27 Sept 24–27 Nov 9–16 Feb 23–27
6. McKinsey & Company 6
Consumers engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities1
% of respondents
Consumers are still constrained by restrictions preventing
resumption of ‘normal’ out-of-home activities
Steady overall optimism
Overall
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
3. For France, Italy, Spain, and Germany: low income is less than €25,000 per year, medium is €25,000–€49,999, and high is above €50,000. For the UK, low income is less than £25,000 per year, medium is £25,000–£49,999, and high is above £50,000.
11
12
37
27
11
Sep 24–27
Feb 23–27
Nov 9–16
Jun 18–21
May 21–24
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
9%
12%
9%
Vaccinated Interested Cautious Unlikely
17%
Low Medium High
12% 10%
11%
Gen X
8%
Baby boomers
20%
Gen Z
13%
Millenials
10%
By income3
By
generation2
By
vaccination
adoption
~17%
of people unlikely to be
vaccinated are doing
out-of-home activities
~20%
of Gen Z are doing
out-of-home activities
~12%
of low-income consumers
are engaging in out-of-
home activities (but limited
distinction vs other groups)
7. McKinsey & Company 7
Consumers will return to out-of-home activities once1 …
% of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging
More than 60 percent of the population is waiting for restrictions to
be lifted before resuming ‘normal’ out-of-home activities
Steady overall optimism
36
26
23
16
Government
lifts restrictions
Government lifts
restrictions +
other requirements
Vaccination
coverage
COVID-19 no
longer spreading
89%
of people are not
currently engaging
in “normal” out-of-
home activities
Vaccination coverage
Government lifts restrictions and…
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important.
11%
Medical authorities deem safe
7%
Stores, restaurants, and other
indoor places start taking
safety measures
5%
I see other people returning
9%
Vaccine is widely distributed
9%
I have been vaccinated
2%
Family member(s) vaccinated
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
8. McKinsey & Company 8
Meeting family and friends, and dining out are the most missed
activities; most consumers shop in-person for groceries now
47%
35%
Get together with friends
Travel by airplane
41%
Get together with family
17%
Dine at a restaurant or bar
15%
Attend an indoor cultural event
14%
11%
Attend an outdoor event
Stay in a hotel
13%
Go out for family entertainment
12%
Travel more than 2 hrs by car
11%
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Responder % is based on those who previously selected “Yes” to having done the activity once per year prior to the COVID-19 crisis.
2. Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Top activities eager to get back to2
% of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices
87%
shop in-person for groceries,
necessities
53%
work outside home
Most prevalent activities
consumers are engaging in1
% of respondents who did activity
within last 2 weeks
Steady overall optimism
9. McKinsey & Company 9
Expected leisure spend in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
42%
Plan to splurge or
treat themselves
Gen Z
Millennials
Gen X 47%
59%
28%
41%
58%
42%
49%
60% 73%
Generation2 Mid
Low High
Baby boomers
Household income3
26% 31% 38%
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
3. For France, Italy, Spain, and Germany: low income is less than €25,000 per year, medium is €25,000–€49,999, and high is above €50,000. For the UK, low income is less than £25,000 per year, medium is £25,000–£49,999,
and high is above £50,000.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
47%
44%
32%
40%
47%
On average, 42 percent of consumers plan to spend extra to splurge
or treat themselves, especially the younger generation
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–49%
Signs of spend recovery
10. McKinsey & Company 10
Expected leisure categories on which people
plan to splurge or treat themselves in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
57
50
36
31
30
28
24
19
16
Beauty & personal care
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Out of home entertainment
Travel, lodging, & vacation
Apparel, shoes & accessories
Electronics
Items for your home
Fitness, sports, & outdoors
Household essentials
Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves on that category
6
11
34
26
7
37
40
16
30
23
17
13
15
19
15
10
19
13
8
11
8
10
9
12
11
12
12
63
61
45
49
66
36
40
53
46
Anytime
Govt restrictions lifted/COVID-19 stops spreading
I am vaccinated
Family is vaccinated
1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2. Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge/treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
This extra spend is expected across categories but is tied to the
lifting of government restrictions and the virus subsiding
Signs of spend recovery
11. McKinsey & Company 11
Net intent: Above +1
Net intent: -15 to 0
Net intent: Below -15
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1
% of respondents Net
intent2
-2
+4
+4
+6
+16
+17
+9
+11
+10
+14
-15
-1
+3
+10
+15
-20
N/A3
N/A3
Change since
November 2020
N/A3
+14
+1
+4
+3
+13
+4
+11
+17
+17
-35
+13
+17
+12
+15
+10
+12
+11
7
18
31
31
48
66
47
44
56
54
38
13
9
27
46
45
35
33
15
7
16
8
8
9
8
9
9
15
6
Food takeout & delivery
Restaurant
Alcoholic beverages
6
Groceries
Toys & baby
Tobacco products
Quick-service restaurant
5
5
Footwear
6
Apparel
5
Jewelry
Accessories
Household supplies
6
Personal-care products
Skin care & makeup 6
Home & furniture
Sports & outdoors
Home improvement & garden
Kitchen & dining
Decrease
Stay the same
Increase
-51
8
-30
-5
-37
-11
-15
-23
-40
-60
-42
-37
-50
-3
-21
-35
-19
-27
9
22
13
26
42
68
27
51
41
34
44
65
48
66
67
75
73
71
9
13
8
7
9
7
9
9
8
9
Pet food & supplies
Domestic flights
Books/magazines/newspapers
Entertainment at home
Vitamins & OTC medicine
6
Consumer electronics
6
Out-of-home entertainment
Hotel/resort stays
6
Pet-care services
Fitness & wellness
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Vehicles
6
Short-term home rentals
4
Travel by car
Cruises
7
Adventures & tours
4
International flights
5
-3
0
-17
-35
-62
-22
-42
-34
-26
-60
-40
-58
-60
-71
-69
-66
-12
-35
1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
3. Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Spending intent outside of the grocery category remains negative,
however less negative as compared to November
Net
intent2
Change since
November 2020
Signs of spend recovery
12. McKinsey & Company 12
-20
-70
-80
-90
-60
-50
-40
-30
-10
0
10
20
Feb
23
Sep
24
Mar
17
Aug
23
Mar
29
Mar
22
May
10
May
17
May
24
Nov
9
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1
Net intent2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 5,232; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 5,338 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain,
UK); 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 5,645; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 5,641; 4/30–5/03/2020, n = 5,631; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 5,623; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 5,645, 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 5,614; 3/20–3/23/2020, n = 5,035 (Italy, France, Germany, Spain,
UK, Portugal), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Groceries
Consumer electronics
Household supplies
Skin care & makeup
Fitness & wellness
Personal-care products
Apparel
Out-of-home entertainment
Domestic flights
International flights
Net spending intent is picking up in most categories, including
discretionary categories, though it remains negative
1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
Signs of spend recovery
13. McKinsey & Company 13
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Although still negative, net spending intent is picking up in most
categories, including discretionary categories
1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual?
2. Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic?
3. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
-15 to 0 Below -15
Above +1 Below 0
Above +25 +15 to +25 0 to +15
Net intent3
Next 2
weeks
Post-
COVID-19 Evolution
Pet food & supplies -3 -1
Vitamins & OTC medicine -12 -5
Domestic flights -66 12
Hotel/resort stays -69 22
Adventures & tours -60 26
Out-of-home entertainment -62 25
Pet-care services -22 -5
Fitness & wellness -42 9
Personal-care services -34 4
Gasoline -26 16
Short-term home rentals -60 18
Cruises -58 -1
Travel by car -40 19
International flights -71 15
Books/magazines/newspapers -17 -8
Consumer electronics -35 -10
Entertainment at home 0 -7
Vehicles -35 -9
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks1 compared to post COVID-192
% of respondents Net intent3
Post-
COVID-19
Next 2
weeks Evolution
Groceries 0
8
Toys & baby -9
-30
Tobacco products -10
-11
Food takeout & delivery -23
-15
Alcoholic beverages -7
-23
Accessories -11
-50
Household supplies -2
-5
Apparel 0
-37
Quick service restaurant -8
-40
Footwear -5
-42
Home improvement & gardening -2
-19
Restaurant 22
-60
Personal-care products 1
-3
Skin care & makeup 0
-21
Sports & outdoors -5
-35
Home & furnishings -11
-37
Jewelry -19
-51
Kitchen & dining goods -8
-27
Signs of spend recovery
14. McKinsey & Company 14
People interested in the vaccine are more confident that their finances
will return to normal by 2021 end, but less optimistic about routines
Expectations on routines returning to normal1,3
% of respondents
Expectations on finances returning to normal2,3
% of respondents
45
44
34
34
36
29
36
34 68
73
81
70
6
6
8
16
64
52
53
45
Cautious
Vaccinated
61
Interested 58
Unlikely
61
70
X% % of respondents
9%
52%
21%
18%
1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because respondents who answered “2022 and beyond” are not shown here.
2. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because Figures may not sum to 100% because respondents who answered “by 2022 and beyond” are not shown here.
3. Q: How likely are you to get the coronavirus vaccine once it is made available to you? Rated from 1 “not at all likely” to 6 “very likely,” including “I have received the first dose of the vaccine (partially vaccinated)” and “I have already received
both doses of the vaccine (fully vaccinated).” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who stated “Very likely” (6) and “Likely” (5) are considered “interested”; respondents who stated “Somewhat likely” (4) or “Somewhat
unlikely” (3) are considered “cautious”; respondents who stated “Unlikely” (2) or “Very unlikely” (1) are considered “unlikely.”
Already back to normal By Dec 21
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Vaccination triggering spend upside at early stage
15. McKinsey & Company 15
Increase in net spend intent of vaccinated people compared to those
‘interested’ in vaccination is highest for Germany and Spain
1. Q: How likely are you to get the coronavirus vaccine once it is made available to you? Rated from 1 “not at all likely” to 6 “very likely,” including “I have received the first dose of the vaccine (partially vaccinated)” and “I have already received
both doses of the vaccine (fully vaccinated).” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents who stated “Very likely” (6) and “Likely” (5) are considered “interested”; respondents who stated “Somewhat likely” (4) or “Somewhat
unlikely” (3) are considered “cautious”; respondents who stated “Unlikely” (2) or “Very unlikely” (1) are considered “unlikely.”
2. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
3. Q: Over the next 2 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same or less money on these categories than usual?
4. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. It is then multiplied by the % of people who respond as typically
purchasing in that category, to effectively weight the average across categories.
5. Small sample sizes (n =< 50) for Germany and Spain.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Vaccination status1
% of respondents
Already engaging in out-of-home activity2 Net spend intent next 2 weeks over usual3,4
9
52
21
18
Vaccinated5
Interested
Unlikely
Cautious
8%
3%
6%
9%
6%
5%
14%
25%
25%
15%
21%
25% -23
-20
-29
-32
-3
-9
+3
-10
-26
-23
-27
+16
-3
+4
-18
-29
-29
-31
+11
0
+2
Below -10
Net intent difference in
percentage points
Vaccination triggering spend upside at early stage
-10 to 0 Above 0
16. McKinsey & Company 16
Consumers expect to continue with the new digital behaviors they
have developed during the pandemic
3. In-home entertainment and
wellness digital activities
to stay
2. New online buying solutions
are likely to stay, less so for
novel delivery services
1. Increased online purchases
~2 in 3
categories, consumer intend to sustain their
level of online buying post-COVID-19,
especially travel, entertainment, and
personal care
67%
of consumers currently using a wellness
app intend to continue post-COVID-19
62%
of consumers currently buying online
on social media intend to continue
post-COVID-19
vs
69%
of consumers currently streaming online
intend to continue post-COVID-19
29%
of consumers using restaurant curbside
pickup services
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Stickiness of digital
17. McKinsey & Company 17
Ninety-two percent of consumers intend to continue buying online,
especially in the most-purchased categories
48
47
39
57
70
35
67
23
22
41
59
55
82
Personal-care products
Alcoholic beverages
Food takeout
Groceries
Household supplies
Apparel
Footwear
Meal at restaurant
Personal-care services
Quick-service restaurant
Books / magazines / newspapers
Skin care & makeup
Entertainment at home
15
15
39
24
20
27
34
10
23
-2
10
62
40
58
37
62
60
43
42
49
38
64
67
33
55
45
38
51
55
31
45
57
35
69
65
85
15
30
69
94%
currently purchasing
online4
92%
intend to continue
purchasing online
post-COVID-194
Purchase online after COVID-19
Net intent5
after COVID-19
% of online purchase during COVID-19
for most purchased categories
0 to 20
Above 50
21 to 50
Below 0
Net intent5
Since start of
COVID-19
Decrease
or stop
Increase or
stay the same
1. Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? Includes respondents who chose “some online,” “most online,” and “all online.”
2. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select “yes” or “no” for each category. Includes respondents who selected “Yes” for the category.
3. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)?: “No, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount
online;” and “buy more online.”
4. Number indicates respondents who chose at least one category that they purchase online.
5. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
Consumers’ use of online channel during, and after COVID-191,2,3
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Stickiness of digital
18. McKinsey & Company 18
10
51
42
41
39
54
69
42
31
24
10
59
74
65
70
72
Consumers intend to purchase more online post-COVID-19 across
the majority of categories
48%
32%
67%
35%
41%
23%
57%
70%
48%
47%
68%
39%
47%
55%
54%
55%
51%
42%
Restaurant
Groceries
Quick-service restaurant
Tobacco products
Alcoholic beverages
Food takeout & delivery
Apparel
Footwear
Jewelry
Personal-care products
Accessories
Toys & baby
Household supplies
Skin care & makeup
Home & furniture
Sports & outdoors
Home improvement & gardening
Kitchen & dining
54%
49%
82%
59%
69%
21%
32%
32%
22%
41%
22%
24%
24%
33%
32%
20%
Consumer electronics
Pet food & supplies
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Entertainement at home
Pet-care services4
Hotel/resort stays
Books/magazines/newspapers
Entertainment at home
Fitness & wellness4
Personal-care services
Short-term home rentals
Cruises
Adventures & tours
International flights
Domestic flights
Vehicles
Net intent3
post-COVID-19
Since COVID-19 began
Net intent3
post-COVID-19
20
23
17
23
10
15
15
-2
34
17
27
30
24
30
31
21
39
24
Above 50
0 to 20
Below 0 21 to 50
Net intent3
1. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “yes” for the category and currently buying the category.
2. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the
same amount online”; “buy more online.”
3. Net intent is calculated among respondents currently buying online by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
Consumers’ use of online channel during1 and after2 COVID-19
% of respondents buying this category
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Stickiness of digital
19. McKinsey & Company 19
Most categories will benefit from lasting online penetration,
especially entertainment and consumer electronics
1. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount
online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
2. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category.
Note: Thresholds of categories are defined by the terciles. The 1st tercile of Intent occurs at 62%, and the 2nd occurs at 66%.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Greater online presence
Less-accelerated online shift Sustained shift to online
Intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
80
50
70 80
60
Footwear
Fitness & wellness
Skin care & makeup
Jewelry
Food takeout & delivery
Alcoholic beverages
Toys & baby
Accessories
Pet food & supplies
Household supplies
Tobacco products
Personal-care services
Sports & outdoors
Home & furniture
Home improvement & gardening
Consumer electronics
Kitchen & dining
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Apparel
Groceries
Entertainment at home
Books/magazines/newspapers
Stickiness of digital
20. McKinsey & Company 20
11%
7%
2%
2%
2%
8%
10%
3%
6%
2%
4%
12%
4%
1%
19%
16%
2%
2%
4%
9%
8%
7%
13%
4%
9%
8%
4%
6%
8%
2%
1%
2%
2%
2%
7%
7%
5%
5%
2%
2%
Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru
In-store self-checkout
Restaurant delivery
Restaurant curbside pickup
Pay more for one-hour delivery
Grocery delivery
Meal-kit delivery
Used deal-finding plug-ins
Pay more for same-day delivery
Buy online for in-store pickup
Store curbside pickup
Used a new store/restaurant app
Purchased pre-owned products
Purchased directly from social media
1%
2%
Using same/less Using more Just started using
43%
47%
52%
45%
80%
29%
53%
37%
56%
73%
63%
77%
40%
40%
Consumers continue to try delivery and pickup services for the first
time, and to intensify their use of the services
Intent to
continue,2 %
Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents currently using/doing
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing
now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Stickiness of digital
21. McKinsey & Company 21
However, less than half of consumers intend to stick with
restaurant pickup and delivery once the pandemic subsides
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
1. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2. Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: “Just started using since coronavirus started”; “Using more since coronavirus started”; “Using less since coronavirus started”; “Using about
the same since coronavirus started.” Possible answers not included: “not using.”
3. Median values of the data set are used as the inflection points. Penetration median = 17%, intent to use median = 52%.
5
55
45
40
35
15
25
35
50
25
30 60 65 70 75 80
In-store
self-checkout
Used deal-finding plug-ins
Pay more for
two-hour delivery
Restaurant delivery
Grocery delivery
Meal-kit delivery
Pay more for
same-day delivery
Quick-serve restaurant
drive-thru
Store curbside pickup
Restaurant curbside pickup
Buy online for
in-store pickup
Purchased
pre-owned products
Used a new store/restaurant app
Purchased directly from social media
Intent to use after COVID-191,3
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2,3
Accelerated by COVID-19
~55–75% of
consumers expect
to continue digital
with COVID-19
acceleration
Disruptive growth
~45–55% of
consumers expect
to continue digital
activities with
more disruptive
growth during
COVID
Emphasized by COVID-19
Limited shift with
COVID-19
User growth: 0–19% User growth: 20–39% User growth: 40–59% User growth: 60%+
Stickiness of digital
22. McKinsey & Company 22
70%
43%
39%
54%
39%
43%
52%
67%
49%
63%
55%
80%
68%
49%
56%
50%
17%
2%
5%
3%
3%
2%
27%
9%
4%
6%
25%
11%
32%
11%
17%
7%
4%
2%
6%
5%
29%
11%
7%
8%
29%
11%
5%
14%
10%
7%
5%
4%
6%
4%
2%
1%
2%
2%
6%
3%
5%
Remote learning: my children
Videoconferencing: professional
Online streaming
Video chat: personal
2%
Remote learning: myself
1%
Telemedicine: physical
Online fitness
Wellness app
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
TikTok
1%
Social media
1%
Telemedicine: mental
2%
1%
Digital exercise machine
Playing online games
2%
Watching e-sports
Personal care/grooming at home
At-home activities such as online streaming, social media, and
cooking have increased, and videoconferencing is gaining usage
Using same/less Using more Just started using
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents currently using/doing Intent to continue2 %
Stickiness of digital
23. McKinsey & Company 23
44
41
38 39 42
55
50
43
40 55
45 46 47 78
60
48 66
49 50 51
35
67
52 53 59
54 65
56 76
57 58 61 62 63 64 70
45
77
68 69 71 81
72
25
0
73 74 75 79 80
5
15
Video conferencing:
Professional
Telemedicine:
Mental
Online streaming
Digital exercise machine
Video chat:
Personal
Online fitness
Remote learning:
Myself
Remote learning:
My children
Telemedicine:
Physical
Used social media
Playing online
games
TikTok Watching e-sports
Cooked regularly
Personal care/grooming
at home
Wellness app
1. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2. Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: “just started using since coronavirus started”; “using more since coronavirus started”; “using less since coronavirus started”; “using about
the same since coronavirus started.” Possible answers not included: “not using.”
3. Median values of the data set are used as the inflection points. Penetration median = 17%, intent to use median = 52%.
New entertainment and wellness habits show strong lasting power,
unlike videoconferencing, telemedicine, and remote learning
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Intent to use after COVID-191,3
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
Emphasized by COVID-19
Limited shift with
COVID-19
Accelerated by COVID-19
~65–75% of
consumers expect
to continue current
level of digital
wellness
accelerated during
COVID-19
~40–55% of
consumers expect
to continue current
level of remote
communication,
learning, health
platforms with
disruptive
COVID-19 growth
Disruptive growth
User growth: 0–19% User growth: 20–39% User growth: 40–59% User growth: 60%+
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2,3
Stickiness of digital
24. McKinsey & Company 24
About one-third of consumers made major life changes involving
their work setup and home renovation
1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 40% consumers selected “none of these.”
2. For France, Italy, Spain, and Germany: low income is less than €25,000 per year, medium is €25,000–€49,999, and high is above €50,000. For the UK, low income is less than £25,000 per year, medium is £25,000–£49,999, and high is above
£50,000.
Set up a specific work-from-home space
Decided to change jobs
Reassessed my investment portfolio
Bought a car
Went back to school
Worked more from home
Renovated/remodeled my home
2%
3%
Set up a gym at home
Bought a property
Sold a property
Permanently moved to a new city
8%
Permanently moved to the countryside
Moved into a bigger home
6%
Permanently moved in with family
Moved into a smaller home
Permanently moved to the suburbs
Got a new pet at home (e.g., dog, cat)
3%
29%
8%
14%
12%
11%
8%
2%
1%
3%
2%
2%
8%
Pet adoption 8%
Home
renovation
29%
Investments/
Divestments
18%
House move 10%
of which
38%
are high-income2 group
(vs 24% in total
sample3)
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191
% of respondents
Work/study
change
36%
Rebalancing of homebody economy
Details next
x% Net % of respondents per category
25. McKinsey & Company 25
13
8
7
1
1
-1
-3
-4
-5
-5
-8
-8
-9
-9
-9
-13
52%
51%
70%
43%
39%
54%
62%
51%
66%
42%
67%
37%
54%
48%
78%
51%
TikTok
Playing online gaming
Telemedicine mental
Personal care/grooming at home
Online fitness
Digital exercice machine
Remote learning: my children
Videoconferencing: professional
Social media
Wellness app
Telemedicine physical
Online streaming
Video chats for personal use
Watching e-sports
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Remote learning: myself
After COVID-19, 57 percent of European consumers expect to
resume pre-pandemic habits regarding work from home
Plan to continue or increase usage
Prior to COVID-19, only 15% of the European workforce worked from
home (5.4% regularly and 9% occasionally)2
Diff. with those
who did not,4
percentage point
1. Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Asked of respondents who selected “Worked more
from home" in the Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Possible answers: "I will not do this at all“; "I will do this less often“; “I will do this about the same“; “I will do this more.“
2. 2020 publication by the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. Figures are for EU 27 countries.
3. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? Respondents who selected “Worked more from home.“ Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis
subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Respondents who selected: “I will keep doing what I am doing now“ or “I will increase this.“
4. Difference between respondents who selected “Worked more from home“ and those that did not state to work more from home.
21%
57%
19%
3%
Work from home more
Work only from home
Work from home the same
Work outside home more
24%
will either work only
from home or do so
more than before
COVID-19
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Rebalancing of homebody economy
Diff. Above +9 Diff.: 5 to 9 Diff.: Below 0
Diff.: 0 to 4
Use of digital services3
% respondents who worked more from home during the crisis
Work from home after COVID-19 as compared to before
COVID-19,1 % respondents
26. McKinsey & Company 26
Have you done any of the following since COVID-19 started1,2
% of respondents
Sixty-seven percent of consumers have tried a new shopping
behavior since COVID-19 started
36%
33%
26%
25%
23%
Different retailer/store/website
New digital shopping method
New shopping method 3
Different brand
Private label/store brand
67%
of consumers have
tried a new shopping
behavior since
COVID-19 started1
86%
of Gen Z have tried a
new shopping
behavior
1. Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 40% consumers selected “none of these.”
2. Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before
coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
3. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
4. Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
79%
69%
85%
86%
82%
Intent to
continue4
Evolution of loyalty
27. McKinsey & Company 27
After value and convenience, supporting local businesses is a top
criteria when choosing where to shop
1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three.
Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three
30%
26%
18%
22%
17%
16%
11%
20%
7%
5%
4%
13%
11%
22%
12%
7%
6%
Products are in stock
Shares my values
Better prices/promotions
Less crowded / has shorter lines
Better value
More easily accessible from my home
Better shipping/delivery costs
Offers good delivery/pickup options
Can get all the items I need from one place
Supporting local businesses
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options
The company treats its employees well
Wanted to treat myself
Better quality
Offers natural/organic options
Cleaner / has better hygiene measures
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
X% Net % of respondents per category
Value 55%
Convenience 53%
Purpose-driven 30%
Availability 23%
Quality/organic 17%
Personal choice 22%
Health/hygiene 6%
37%
of Gen Z but only
27% of Gen X and
baby boomers
selected
purpose-driven
reasons
Evolution of loyalty
28. McKinsey & Company 28
Value drives brand switching across all markets except the United
Kingdom, where quality and availability are key drivers
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand.
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three, selected reasons
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Value 67%
Novelty 41%
Purpose-driven 35%
Convenience 22%
32%
Quality/organic
Availability 27%
Personal choice 35%
Better value
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried
Supporting local businesses
Is more sustainable/better for the environment
Wanted to treat myself
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Better quality
Products are in stock
Is available where I’m shopping
Better prices/promotions
X% Net % of respondents per main reason
Top 5 reasons per country
Better shipping/delivery costs
45
38
39 37
11
39
40
39 40
8
16
13
17 19
29
24
29
30 30
26
21
26
32 25
21
12
27
22 23
31
14
18
18 13
12
11
33
21 25
24
16
15
30 19
17
19
19
24 28
35
28
30
31 12
33
18
29
25 18
25
Evolution of loyalty
29. McKinsey & Company 29
Beyond finding value, feeling the need to try something new is an
important driver of brand switching, as is a brand’s purpose
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand.
2. For France, Italy, Spain, and Germany: low income is less than €25,000 per year, medium is €25,000–€49,999, and high is above €50,000. For the UK, low income is less than £25,000 per year, medium is £25,000–£49,999, and
high is above £50,000.
40%
39%
16%
11%
27%
24%
19%
15%
9%
6%
21%
19%
22%
16%
27%
22%
12%
Better prices/promotions
Is more sustainable/better for the environment
Better value
Better shipping/delivery costs
Supporting local businesses
Larger package sizes
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Shares my values
The company treats its employees well
Wanted to treat myself
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Better quality
Is natural/organic
Products are in stock
Is available where I’m shopping
Cleaner / has better hygiene measures
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
41%
of high-income but
only 32% of
low-income
respondents
selected
purpose-driven
reasons2
Net % of respondents per category
X%
Value 67%
Personal choice 35%
Novelty 41%
Convenience 22%
Purpose-driven 35%
Quality/organic 32%
Health/hygiene 12%
Availability 27%
Evolution of loyalty
30. McKinsey & Company 30
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or
guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice
based on information currently available and do not contain all of the
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