Indonesian consumers remain optimistic on the economy, expecting higher incomes and spending. Many tried and plan to keep using digital services and omnichannel methods.
In Indonesia, optimism about future economic conditions increased more than 25 percent over September 2020 from an already high base, boosted by planning for the upcoming holiday season. Eight out of ten consumers say they will dine out, shop for gifts, and redecorate. Out-of-home activities are generally rising but remain far below prepandemic levels. Optimism about the economy is tempered by views of household finances; half predict finances won’t return to normal before June. The loyalty shake-up continues, with 60 percent citing value as their primary reason to try a new brand. New digital behaviors are starting to show evidence of stickiness: 60 percent say they intend to use new shopping methods when the pandemic subsides.
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McKinsey: Survey: Indonesian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis
1. McKinsey & Company 1
Six emerging consumer themes in March 2022
Source: Based on 3rd-party data between Feb 2019 and Aug 2021, as well as longitudinal surveys conducted between Mar 2020 and Aug 2021 in the United
States
1. Year-over-year growth for Mar–June 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–June 2020 growth had COVID-19 not occurred.
1
Rising optimism
Overall, optimism
increased and
pessimism
decreased in 2022
versus 2020
55% of consumers
plan to splurge in
2022, driven by
younger and high-
income consumers
2
Omnichannel is
ascendant
Alternatives to in-store
shopping accelerated
during the COVID-19
pandemic; 60–85% of
consumers intend to
continue their use
Digital and remote
acquisition of services
increased, with strong
intent to continue,
especially in telemedicine
3
Increased intent to
spend
Consumers report
greater net intent to
spend in most
product categories
Exceptions are
products for at-home
activities (eg, food
for home, toys, and
at-home
entertainment)
5
Loyalty shake-up
continues
The majority of
consumers respond
to a stockout by
buying a different
product and/or from
a different retailer
Most of these
consumers report
buying from a
different retailer
4
A tentative return to
out-of-home
Only 29% of
consumers say they
are engaging in out-
of-home activities
Most consumers say
they changed how
they engage in out-
of-home activities,
due to the omicron
variant
6
More planning for large
get-togethers
Almost half of consumers—
including larger shares of
millennials and high-income
consumers—say they are
excited/eager about the
2022 holiday shopping
season
Most consumers plan to
travel and attend get-
togethers for the holidays
2. McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191, % of respondents
15 15
21
14
29 32 29
20
46
56
51 63
48 47
59
75
38
28 27
23 23 21
12
5
29
68
3
Mixed: The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression
or fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
Indonesian consumers are, out of those in all surveyed countries,
among the most optimistic about economic recovery
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to
100% due to rounding.
Japan
3/16–26
Australia
3/16–25
Korea
3/19–26
US
3/1–25
Change in optimistic vs
last wave survey, percentage points
-6 -10 +15 -2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
India
3/11–24
+1
Oct 2021 Oct 2021 Oct 2021
Indonesia
3/16–26
+15
Sept 2020 Nov 2020 June 2020
Germany
3/22–28
France
3/23–28
UK
3/22–29
-10 -9 -12
Oct 2021
Oct 2021
Oct 2021
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
3. McKinsey & Company 3
9 6 9 8 8 3
40
41
52 52
38
29
51 53
39 40
53
68
May 2020 Sept 2020
June 2020
Apr 2020
Mar 20202 Mar 2022
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to
100% because of rounding.
2. Average of weekly pulse surveys shown for Mar and Apr 2020.
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Mixed: The economy will
be impacted for 6-12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19
will have lasting impact
on the economy and
show regression or fall
into lengthy recession
Overall optimism in Indonesia has steadily increased
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 3/11–3/24/2022, n = 1,009; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/21/2020, n = 726; 5/20–5/22/2020, n = 715; 4/25–4/26/2020,
n = 711; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 691, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
4. McKinsey & Company 4
Millennials, baby boomers, and vaccinated consumers
drive economic optimism
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
17
46
40
Unvaccinated
47
14
36
Vaccinated
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
3 1 3 3
34
24
34
23
62
75
63
74
Gen Z Baby boomers2
Millennials Gen X
Optimistic Pessimistic
Mixed
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
By generation By vaccination status
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
5. McKinsey & Company 5
28
21 25
19
19
23 13
29
53 55
62
52
Baby boomers3
Gen Z Millennials Gen X
23
40
19
24
58
35
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
24
19
57
Overall
1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
After June 2022
By June 2022
Not affected/already returned
By generation By vaccination status2
Overall, Gen X is least
optimistic about the
return to normalcy
~40% of unvaccinated
consumers are
engaging in normal
routine, reflecting the
highest confidence
Key findings
Less than 25 percent of consumers expect pre-COVID-19 routines to
be delayed beyond June 2022
Expectations for routines returning to ‘normal,’1 % of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
6. McKinsey & Company 6
An increasing proportion of consumers describe their income and
savings as stable
Reduced slightly/a lot About the same Increased slightly/a lot
11
3
63
25
26
72
Past 2 weeks
47
12
41
Past 2 weeks Past month
6
58
17
20
13
77
67
Past 2 weeks
14
28
Past 2 weeks Past month
23 23 21
25 26 28
52 51 51
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past month
1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected the following over the past 1 month/2 weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Household income1
% of respondents
Household spending1
% of respondents
Household savings1
% of respondents
June 2020 Sept 2020 Mar 2022 June 2020 Sept 2020 Mar 2022 June 2020 Sept 2020 Mar 2022
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
7. McKinsey & Company 7
About 30 percent of consumers say their finances are back to
‘normal’; half expect to get there after June 2022
38
29 26
50
24
23
14
9
37
48
60
41
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3
32 36
19
24
49
40
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
32
19
49
Overall
1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
By generation By vaccination status2
~50% of baby
boomers say their
finances either
were not affected
or are back to
normal, vs ~35%
for Gen Z and
millennials
Expectations for personal/household finances
returning to ‘normal,’1 % of respondents
After June 2022
By June 2022
Not affected/already returned
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
8. McKinsey & Company 8
While 55 percent of respondents plan to ‘splurge,’ this intent to spend
is less common among older low- and middle-income consumers
45
55
Mar 2022
Plan on
splurging
Do not plan
on splurging
Millennials
Gen X
Baby boomers2
67 56
Gen Z 80
59 67 81
33 14 100
51 44 52
Generation
Respondents who plan/do not plan to ‘splurge’
or ‘treat themselves’ in 20221
% of respondents
Low
(<8.5M
rupiah/month)
Middle
(8.5M–37.5M
rupiah/month)
High
(>37.5M
rupiah/month)
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–50%
Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, %
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2022? For example, are there categories of products or services you have spent less on over the last year and a half which you feel
you will spend more on in the next 3 months?
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
9. McKinsey & Company 9
Consumers most often say they plan to splurge on apparel, travel,
and dining out
Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1
% of all respondents with intent to splurge
1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in next 3 months. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
50
45
44
40
37
35
31
29
27
22
21
11
9
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Electronics
Apparel, shoes, accessories
Fitness
Travel, lodging, vacation
Out-of-home entertainment
Makeup, skin care products
Personal services
Items for your home
Household essentials
Sports apparel and equipment
Outdoor living
Pets
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
52 51 49 26
36 43 59 42
41 45 46 40
41 42 38 26
38 36 36 42
40 34 34 26
32 30 33 26
24 32 26 58
14 33 30 38
Generational cut
26 24 16 26
18 22 21 26
10 13 8 26
11 8 6 26
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Categories
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Rising optimism | Current as of March 2022
10. McKinsey & Company 10
Omnichannel shopping is more prevalent across categories
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of March 2022
1. Q: Which best describes how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months?
2. Q: Which best described how you have purchased the following categories over the last 3 months?
55
53
43
35
29
26
25
25
25
22
22
21
21
20
17
16
12
12
11
11
9
5
39
43
51
60
59
64
65
59
63
58
68
61
64
65
64
68
72
70
69
67
67
50
6
5
6
5
12
10
10
16
12
20
10
18
15
15
19
16
16
18
19
22
24
45
Pet care services
Consumer electronics
Groceries/food for home
Tobacco products and smoking supplies
Footwear
Vehicles
Home improvement and gardening
Personal-care products
Jewelry
Apparel
Fitness and wellness services
Books, magazines, newspapers
Household supplies
Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine
Pet food and supplies
Kitchen and dining
Home decoration and furniture
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Toys and baby supplies
Skin care and makeup
Accessories
Food takeout/delivery
Only online
Omnichannel
Only in stores
Product searches1 and purchases2 by channel
% of respondents who purchased and searched in these categories in the last 3 months
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
11. McKinsey & Company 11
Younger consumers are significantly more influenced by social
media than others are
1. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. Were you influenced toward a certain brand by a post on social media in the following categories?
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
78
74
74
68
65
64
63
63
62
62
58
53
53
49
49
34
Footwear
Home decoration and furniture
Apparel
Sports and outdoors equipment and supplies
Skin care and makeup
Accessories (eg, handbags, sunglasses)
Jewelry
Consumer electronics
Fitness and wellness services (eg, gym, workout classes)
Personal-care products (eg, soap, shampoo, deodorant)
Home improvement and garden supplies
Vitamins, supplements, and over-the-counter medicine (eg, cough, cold, allergies)
Kitchen and dining
Household supplies (eg, cleaning and laundry)
Pet food and supplies
Groceries/food for home
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
86 80 61 40
75 73 74 72
65 72 67 62
69 69 63 44
62 61 67 100
68 65 62 45
71 62 63 23
60 67 60 33
Generational cut
74 70 50 42
59 64 55 39
56 60 48 35
53 60 48 44
Categories
Categories where respondents were influenced by social media1
% of all respondents
81 72 78
83
48 56 44 38
44 57 44 37
38 46 23 15
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of March 2022
12. McKinsey & Company 12
All consumers surveyed say they engage on social-media platforms
at least once a week
Frequency of engagement with social-media platforms1
% of all respondents
1. Q: What social-media platforms do you engage with, and if so, how frequently?
100 98
92 89
72 69
43 40
27 24
71
2 8 11
28 31
57 60
73 76
29
Twitter
Instagram Facebook TikTok Reddit
Pinterest LinkedIn Snapchat Others
Overall YouTube
Never/less than weekly
Weekly or more
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of March 2022
13. McKinsey & Company 13
7
76
8
10
64
9
15
84
62
14
60
11
66 68 70 72
13
74
6
78
5
86 88
12
Drive-thru lane Direct chat
(eg, WhatsApp/Instagram)
Used an app for 2-hour
or 1-hour delivery
Buy online, pick up in store
Downloaded/used a new store/restaurant app
Used an app for
same-day delivery
Purchased pre-owned
product
Curbside pickup from a restaurant
Downloaded/used
deal-finding plug-ins
Purchased directly from social media
Intent to use when the COVID-19 crisis subsides2
% of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity
User
growth
since
COVID-19
pandemic
1
1. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less) on Q: Which best
describes when you have done or used each of these items?
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates percent who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
Alternatives to in-store shopping accelerated during the pandemic;
60 to 85 percent of consumers intend to continue using each
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of March 2022
14. McKinsey & Company 14
55 83
0
9
74
56 69
53 54 78
70
57
12
66
65
58 59 84
15
60 61 91
80
62
21
63 64
18
6
67
24
68 71 72 73 82
75 76 81
77 79 86
85 89
87 88 90 92
3
0
Online fitness
Telemedicine: physical health
Wellness app
Grocery delivery
Watching online gaming
Video chat: personal
Restaurant food delivery
Online streaming
Videoconferencing: professional
Playing online games
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
TikTok
Telemedicine: mental health
Social media
Virtual hangout:
group buying
Digital banking
Intent to use when the COVID-19 crisis subsides2
% of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity
User
growth
since
COVID-19
pandemic
1
1. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less) on Q: Which best
describes when you have done or used each of these items?
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
Digital and remote acquisition of services also increased, with strong
intent to continue, especially for telemedicine
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of March 2022
15. McKinsey & Company 15
Cryptocurrency
20
7
38
30
44
14
6
48
37
A drive-thru line for a fast-food restaurant
19
Curbside pickup from a restaurant 31
14
43
Augmented reality/virtual reality
12
43
Delivery within 2 hours or 1 hour
40
12
33
9
43
Buy online, pick-up in store
17
53
5 35
47
13
38
Social-media direct purchase
Deal-finding plug-ins
11
33
42
13
12
7
New store/restaurant app
42
13
37
38
13
9
Online secondhand products
Tried making something myself/DIY project
39
29
11
10
13
6
NFTs (digital assets)
35
46
18
4
40
7
Same-day delivery
32
41
11
45
7
Direct chat (eg, WhatsApp, Instagram)
42
30
16
Changed my primary grocery store
29
47
14
10
Shopped at a new store
43
5
4
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
32
11
Personal care/grooming at home
46
28
12
14
Consumers continue to say they are trying pickup, delivery
services, and digital assets, with some increased usage observed
Just started using Using less Using Same Using more
Intent to
continue2
71
62
74
71
69
77
80
88
79
73
79
72
69
84
84
90
78
74
Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items?1
% of respondents who have used in the last 3 months
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of March 2022
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “I have not used in the
last 3 months”; “I have used in the last 3 months at the same rate as before”; “I have used this more in the past 3 months than before”; “I have used this less in the past 3 months than before.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
16. McKinsey & Company 16
Consumers have adopted at-home alternatives to out-of-home
activities, with more than 70 percent intending to continue
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19
started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
Wellness app (eg, meditation) 11
41
Online personal training, fitness
5
41
31
10
Virtual hangouts and video chats for personal use
8
53
6
7 38 44
Remote learning for myself
5
52
38
13
4
18
Restaurant food delivery
Used TikTok
48
9
4
36
9
31
7
Grocery delivery
9
57
32
7
Playing online games
Online streaming
7
56
28
7
11
5
Video conferencing for professional use
49
Telemedicine for physical health care
27
37
33
11
19
45
36
52
4
13
55
35
4
Watching online gaming
46
52
8
Telemedicine for mental health care
18
Remote learning for my kids
43
40
10
7
50
42
2
25
36
36
18
10
Virtual hangouts for group-buying
37
4
7
Used digital banking/fintech application
Used social media
74
78
77
82
81
65
63
65
79
67
56
91
65
72
75
52
85
Intent to
continue2
Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items?1
% of respondents who have used in the last 3 months
Just started using Using less Using same Using more
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of March 2022
17. McKinsey & Company 17
−20
−60
−80
−70
−30
−50
−40
−10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
June
2020
Sept
2020
Mar
2022
Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1
Net intent2
Net intent to spend is increasing in discretionary categories
Skin care and makeup
Groceries
Consumer electronics
Fitness and wellness
Household supplies
Personal-care products
Apparel
Domestic flights
International flights
Out-of-home
entertainment
1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/24/2022, n = 1,009; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/21/2020, n = 726; 5/20–5/22/2020, n = 715; 4/25–4/26/2020,
n = 711; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 691, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
Increased intent to spend | Current as of March 2022
18. McKinsey & Company 18
Overall, consumers report greater net intent to spend, with a few
exceptions, such as groceries, tobacco, toys, and household supplies
Net intent >1
Net intent −15 to 0
Net intent: < −15
7
28
30
45
53
45
42
48
56
24
20
7
17
48
37
44
30
32
10
25
14
15
9
18
16
24
15
20
21
16
15
16
18
10
Apparel
Groceries/food for home
Tobacco and smoking
Food takeout/delivery
Household supplies
Quick-service restaurant
Restaurant
Footwear
Jewelry
Accessories
Toys and baby supplies
Personal-care products
Skin care and makeup
Kitchen and dining
Home decoration, furniture
Sports and outdoors
Home improvement, garden
Decrease Increase
Stay the same
16
11
15
32
50
42
25
22
34
15
37
48
27
40
35
39
46
43
45
29
14
11
17
14
26
12
18
15
23
26
23
21
17
17
Out-of-home entertainment
Entertainment at home
Consumer electronics
Hotel/resort stays
Pet food and supplies
Vitamins and OTC medicine
Books/magazines/newspapers
Pet care services
Fitness and wellness
Vehicles
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Adventures and tours
Short-term home rentals
Cruises
Travel by car
International flights
Domestic flights
10
10
Net
intent2
14
−18
−39
−25
−12
4
−22
3
−32
−5
−14
−12
−17
−30
33
−27
1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
3. Data not available or insufficient sample (n < 50) in Nov 2020 survey.
Change since
Sept 2020
Change since
Sept 2020
−6 N/A3
28
−6
16
12
6
13
13
8
18
4
11
27
−9
41
1
15
−26 13
Net
intent2
25 −11
−18 −5
−4 6
−31 4
−38 12
−36 5
−24 21
−32 8
−46 4
0 −14
−5 −26
12 4
4 24
−32 7
−28 N/A3
−13 N/A3
−21 N/A3
Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16/2022–3/26/2022, n = 1,020; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesia’s general population
18+ years
Increased intent to spend | Current as of March 2022
19. McKinsey & Company 19
Consumers’ plans to increase spending are similar across vaccination
status, except for personal-care items and entertainment
1. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
2. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual?
+3
percentage points
Likelihood of
vaccinated vs
unvaccinated people
to spend
For selected categories
Net intent1 for expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual2
Unlikely Cautious Interested Vaccinated
Groceries
Food takeout and delivery
Restaurant
Quick-service restaurant
Home decor
Home and garden
Personal-care items
Fitness and wellness
Entertainment at home
International flights
9
−10
−15
−20
−65
26
0
−100
−22
−100
44
23
−10
−71
−75
−100
−5
70
−9
0
10
−2
−2
52
−38
−77
11
7
32
18
26
−5
−39
−32
−32
−28
13
3
14
−17
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Increased intent to spend | Current as of March 2022
20. McKinsey & Company 20
Increases in spend are mainly driven by higher-volume
purchases and switching to premium brands
6
9
9
8
8
2
4
13
3
12
13
7
10
9
2
6
10
8
34
39
36
42
39
42
39
27
38
30
36
34
36
24
32
22
26
29
11
26
31
29
32
33
36
43
38
38
44
45
39
40
48
37
47
47
49
27
25
21
22
23
22
17
22
20
7
14
16
27
19
36
17
16
Household supplies
Groceries
Food takeout/delivery
Personal-care products
Meals at restaurants
Home and decoration
Meals at quick-serve rest
Pet food and supplies
Pet care services
Vitamin and minerals
Kitchen and dining
Apparel
Footwear
Accessories
Consumer electronics
Vehicles
Skin care and makeup
Personal-care services
Increase in price
Increase in income
Larger quantity
Premium brands/products
1. Q: Please indicate the main reason for planning to spend more on the following categories.
Reasons for increase in spend1
% of respondents who increased spend
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Increased intent to spend | Current as of March 2022
21. McKinsey & Company 21
Decreases in spend are mainly driven by shifts in spend to
other categories
29
19
21
21
18
19
29
8
19
20
13
18
19
19
15
21
24
15
36
26
22
21
24
16
25
21
22
22
16
17
18
19
17
16
23
20
12
14
12
13
18
27
25
24
17
12
11
13
13
15
16
14
20
19
21
39
43
43
35
37
21
45
41
43
57
51
48
46
50
50
29
43
3
2
2
1
4
2
2
3
4
1
3
1
1
4
4
Kitchen and dining
Household supplies
Pet food and supplies
Groceries
Meals at quick-service rest
Food takeout/delivery
Meals at restaurants
Vehicles
Personal-care products 0
Pet care services
1
Vitamins and minerals
Apparel
Footwear
Accessories
Personal-care services
Consumer electronics
Home and decoration
0
Skin care and makeup
Reduced price
Decrease in income
Smaller quantity Spend more on other categories
Switch to less expensive
1. Q: Please indicate the main reason for planning to spend less on the following categories.
Reasons for decrease in spend1
% of respondents who decreased spend
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Increased intent to spend | Current as of March 2022
22. McKinsey & Company 22
Overall
51
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
28
30
Gen Z Baby boomers3
Millennials Gen X
32 28
22
Low (<8.5M
rupiah)
28
Medium (8.5M–
37.5M rupiah)
High (>37.5M
rupiah)
32
29
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2. Gen Z are people under 26 years old, millennials are 26–41 years old, Gen X are people 42–57 years old, baby boomers are 58 years old and above.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
By
generation2
By
vaccination
adoption
By monthly
income
~32%
of Gen Z are doing out-
of-home activities
~32%
of high-income
households are doing
out-of-home activities
~51%
of people who are
unvaccinated are doing
out-of-home activities
Consumers engaging in out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents
Even with delta and omicron variants present, half of unvaccinated
consumers say they are engaging in out-of-home activities
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population
18+ years
A tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of March 2022
29
22
Mar 2022
Sept 2020
23. McKinsey & Company 23
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment
Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar
Go to a hair or nail salon
Go out for family entertainment
Attend an indoor cultural event
Attend an outdoor event
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Get together with family
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Get together with friends
Did this in past 2 weeks
63
80
63
52
64
78
82
93
76
95
95
98
90
87
70
89
75
70
75
59
Travel more than 2 hours by car
Work outside my home
Use a ride-sharing service
Travel by airplane
Use public transportation
Go to a shopping mall
Shop for groceries/necessities
Shop for non-necessities
Travel by train
Stay in a hotel
Rent a short-term home
Did this in past 2 weeks
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
50% and above
Less than 50%
Consumers increased all out-of-home activity since February, with
largest increases for social activities, indoor dining, and fitness
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
A tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of March 2022
1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19 but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs pre-COVID-19”; “Doing this just
as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.”
Current engagement in out-of-home activities1
% of respondents who said they are doing this in the same or a modified way
24. McKinsey & Company 24
1. Q: With the rise of the omicron variant of COVID-19, how, if at all, has your out-of-home behavior changed?
6
10 12
15
53
61
55
36
25 24
1 2
Low (<8.5M
rupiah)
Medium (8.5–
37.5M rupiah)
High (>37.5M
rupiah)
7
11
20
59
48
28 25
2
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
11
59
28
2
Overall
Engage less
Engage more
Engage same as
before omicron
Engage with
adjusted behavior
By monthly income By vaccination status
Higher-income
consumers are less
cautious when
going out
A quarter of
unvaccinated
consumers have not
reduced or changed
their out-of-home
behavior during the
spread of the omicron
variant
Key findings
Adjustments to out-of-home behavior due to prevalence of omicron variant,1 % of respondents
Roughly 90 percent of consumers have changed the way they
engage in out-of-home activities, because of the omicron variant
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
A tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of March 2022
25. McKinsey & Company 25
1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this at all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19, but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs. pre-COVID-19”;
“Doing this just as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.”
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment
8
94
Go out for family entertainment
Get together with family
92
8
92
6
Go to a hair or nail salon
Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar
91
9
91
Attend an indoor cultural event
13
11
89
Attend an outdoor event
8
92
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
11
89
Go to the gym or fitness studio
87
9
Get together with friends
17
86
83
14
Shop for groceries/necessities
Rent a short-term home
88 12
94
Shop for non-necessities
17
Go to a shopping mall 10
6
90
Use public transportation
Work outside my home
92
Travel more than 2 hours by car
83
Use a ride-sharing service
7
93
6
Travel by airplane
6
94
94
Travel by train
Stay in a hotel
7
93
8
Doing less, doing in a modified way
Doing as much as and in the same way as pre-COVID-19
Level of engagement in out-of-home activities1
% of respondents having engaged in activity pre-COVID-19
Most consumers—about 80 to 95 percent, depending on the
behavior—have modified their behavior when out of home
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
A tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of March 2022
26. McKinsey & Company 26
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-19 pandemic,1 % of respondents
The pandemic resulted in a work or study change for almost three-
fourths of consumers and home renovations for nearly half
61
13
19
16
29
14
15
3
4
8
8
14
Moved into a smaller home
Set up a gym at home
Decided to change jobs
Worked more from home
Started homeschooling children
Renovated/remodeled my home
Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat)
Sold a property
Set up a specific work-from-home space
Moved into a bigger home
Bought a property
Apply for loans
Mar 2022
1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
2. Total percentage of people who chose option(s) in the category.
Work/study change
Pet adoption
House move
Home renovation
Investments/
divestments
Total,2
%
15
72
7
45
15
14
Applied for loan
from bank/fintech
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
A tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of March 2022
27. McKinsey & Company 27
Milestones for the Indonesian population not yet engaging with out-of-home activities1
% of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging
31 33
11
25
Government
lifts restrictions
Government lifts
restrictions and
other requirements
Vaccination
coverage
COVID-19 no
longer spreading
71%
of people are not
currently engaging
in ‘normal’ out-of-
home activities
Vaccination coverage
Government lifts restrictions and …
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already
participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
15%
Medical authorities deem safe
14%
Stores, restaurants, and other
indoor places start taking safety
measures
4%
I see other people returning
3%
Vaccine is widely distributed
7%
I have been vaccinated
1%
Family member(s) vaccinated
Cautious consumers cite government restrictions and omicron’s
spread as primary reasons for delaying out-of-home activities
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
A tentative return to out-of-home | Current as of March 2022
28. McKinsey & Company 28
90
64
51
49
40
33
28
Different retailer/store/website
Different brand
Any new shopping behavior
New digital shopping method
New shopping method3
New social commerce shopping
Private label/store brand
Consumer behavior change has been more extensive among
younger and higher-income consumers
91 6
Income cut
Generational cut
All consumers
Intent to continue behavior2
1. Q: Over the past 3 months, which of the following have you done? 10% replied “None of these.”
2. Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before 3 months ago”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before 3 months ago”; ”will
keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before 3 months ago.” Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before 3 months ago” and “will keep doing this and NOT go
back to what I did before 3 months ago.”
3. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
Behaviors since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
90 13
87 −1
90 N/A
87 5
84 1
Millennials
Low
(>8.5M
rupiah)
Medium
(8.5M–
37.5M
rupiah)
High
(>37.5M
rupiah)
Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers
85
93 96 91 96
84 76
50
69 68 68 64
57 55
41
45 61 53 63
49 32
39
53 55 51 66
42 40
36
43 47 39 62
34 18
21
37 36 34 57
31 12
29
33 36 27 38
21 10
Change from Sep
2020, percentage
points
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of March 2022
29. McKinsey & Company 29
Consumers facing stockouts are more likely to substitute retailer or
brand than to wait for products to become available
1. Q: Over the last 3 months, have you wanted to buy something and not been able to purchase it because it was out of stock or otherwise not available?
2. Q: The most recent time this happened (when you wanted to buy something and it was not available), what did you do?
32
68
Mar 2022
Could not purchase
at least 1 item
Able to purchase
all items
Respondents who planned to purchase
something but could not, due to unavailability1
% of respondents
37
21
16
19
6
Did not buy anything
Bought the product
at different retailer
Bought a different brand or similar
product at a different retailer
Bought a different product
at the same retailer
Waited until product was available
at the same retailer
All consumers who could not make a planned
purchase2
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of March 2022
30. McKinsey & Company 30
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top 3
Value was a primary reason for brand switching; for younger
consumers, better quality came next
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store
brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Wanted to treat myself
Supporting local businesses
Products are in stock
Better value
Better prices, promotions
Better shipping, delivery cost
31
Larger package sizes
2
More sustainable, better for the environment
Shares my values
The company treats its employees well
Wanted variety, change from my normal routine
Better quality
Natural, organic
7
12
13
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Available where I’m shopping (ie, in store or online)
Cleaner, safer
13
17
12
47
5
11
5
38
10
26
10
16
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Novelty
Personal choice
Purpose-driven
Quality/organic
Convenience
Health/hygiene
Availability 12
Value 64
31
45
48
16
7
21
Baby
boomers2
Gen Z/
millennials Gen X
15 15
21
47 30
51
14 0
13
6 0
5
12 7
15
12 21
14
10 21
13
5 6
3
3 0
1
39 44
35
10 28
5
25 22
29
32 29
30
9 0
14
12 15
11
15 22
16
8 6
5
All consumers
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
x Net % of respondents per category
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of March 2022
31. McKinsey & Company 31
Almost half of consumers are excited about the holiday
shopping season, including majorities of high-income and
millennial consumers
9 2 3 0
45
45
54 58
46
53
42 41
Baby
boomers2
Gen Z Millennials Gen X
1. Q: Which best describes your general attitude toward the holiday shopping season? Selected from "Anxious," "Stressed," "Neutral," "Eager,“ "Excited," and "Other."
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
3
50
47
Overall
Excited/
eager
Neutral
Stressed/
anxious
Consumer attitudes toward the 2022 holiday shopping season1
% of respondents
By monthly income By generation
9 4 1
54
54
45
37 42
54
Medium
(8.5M–37.5M
rupiah)
Low
(<8.5M
rupiah)
High
(>37.5M
rupiah)
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Holiday outlook | Current as of March 2022
32. McKinsey & Company 32
Vaccinated consumers are much more likely than the unvaccinated
to be excited/eager about the holiday shopping season
1. Q: Which best describes your general attitude toward the holiday shopping season? Selected from "Anxious," "Stressed," "Neutral," "Eager," "Excited," and "Other."
Consumer attitudes toward the 2022 holiday shopping season1
% of respondents
3
50
47
Stressed/
anxious
Overall
Excited/
eager
Neutral
4
90
47
10
49
Vaccinated
0
Unvaccinated
By vaccination status
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Holiday outlook | Current as of March 2022
33. McKinsey & Company 33
Majorities of consumers plan to spend about the same as or more
than last year across categories except large household appliances
48
26 27
18 19
65
29
45 41
47
57
14
23 29 32 35
24 21
Personal travel Family travel Out-of-
home eating
Gifts (for
myself and
others)
Redecorate my
home/put out
seasonal items
Large
household
appliances
Key findings
1. Q: If you compare the upcoming holidays 2022 with the ones last year, how much do you plan to change your spending level in the following categories?
Will spend more Will spend about the same Will spend less
Holiday spending plans in 2022 vs 20211
% of respondents who plan to spend on the category during the holidays in 2022
Family travel, out-of-home eating
and gifts are the categories with
most respondents who say that
they will spend more this year vs
last year
Majority of consumers plan to
spend less on large household
appliances vs last year
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Holiday outlook | Current as of March 2022
34. McKinsey & Company 34
Most consumers plan to travel and attend a get-together during the
upcoming holiday
1. Q: What best describes what you expect to do for the holidays this year [2022]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: What best describes your holiday get togethers last year [2020]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Change by monthly income Change by generation
14 31 25
25 15 24 29 32
16 −1 −16 11 −15 −2
−4 −12
−1 −8 −7 −3 −3 −12
−6 −4
−30 −16 −6 −22 −14 −10
−14 −17
Medium
(8.5M–37.5M
rupiah)
Low
(<8.5M
rupiah)
High
(>37.5M
rupiah) Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers3
Change
from 2020,2
percentage
points
Holiday plans in 20221
% of respondents
< −3 Between −3 and +3 > +3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
37
38
10
16
Will not travel but will have a family/friends
get-together outside my immediate family
Will travel to and attend a large
get-together with family and friends
Will travel to a limited family get-together
Do not plan to travel and will limit getting
together to immediate family only
Holiday outlook | Current as of March 2022
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020; 9/22–9/28/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population
18+ years
35. McKinsey & Company 35
More than half of consumers plan to shop at different retailers than
last year; the leading factor on where to shop is safety
59
25
49
18
11
Shop at a different place
Shop more online
Shop more at local/independent stores
Shop more in person
Shop earlier
1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different from last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Anticipated different holiday shopping behaviors1
% of respondents
Reasons to change place to shop
during holiday season
% of respondents
24
45
19
Check more things off
my list at once
More value for money
COVID-19
considerations
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Holiday outlook | Current as of March 2022
36. McKinsey & Company 36
Many consumers, especially youngers ones, plan to shop
more online
49
18
11
Shop more in person
Shop more online
Shop earlier
Income cut
Gen Z
Millen-
nials Gen X
Baby
boomers2
Shopping behaviors
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different compared to last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Anticipated shopping behavior change for 2022
holidays,1 % of all respondents Generational cut
65 44
49 26
16 29 11 9
15 14 12 2
50 51 47
14 16 22
10 11 12
Medium
(8.5M–
37.5M
rupiah)
Low
(<8.5M
rupiah)
High
(>37.5M
rupiah)
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Holiday outlook | Current as of March 2022
37. McKinsey & Company 37
Better price and quality are the top two factors in consumers’
decisions about where to shop
53
22
34
27
36
4
22
51
13
24
12
3
Better prices, promotions
Better shipping, delivery costs
Ability to see products in person
Convenience
Product availability
Better quality
Easy to shop across store and online
Ability to purchase most gifts from 1 place
Unique items offered
Cleaner, better hygiene measures
Supporting local businesses
Company treating its employees well
Generational cut
37
44
12
28
1
44
21
1
11
41
20
Gen Z
35
63
29
31
9
11
14
6
7
49
23
23
Millennials
38
44
21
36
4
25
8
3
24
42
30
24
Gen X
33
64
24
37
4
9
10
1
2
71
21
23
Baby
boomers2
40
1. Q: Please tell us what your primary considerations will be when deciding where to shop. Please select up to 3.
2. Baby boomers include traditional or silent generation.
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Primary considerations when deciding where to shop1
% of respondents
Availability
Value
Convenience
Quality
Health/hygiene
Purpose-driven
Uniqueness
54
63
x Net % of respondents per category
55
51
13
24
15
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/16–3/26/2022, n = 1,020, sampled and weighted to match the Indonesian general population 18+ years
Holiday outlook | Current as of March 2022