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Models for Risk Aggregation and Sensitivity Analysis:  An Application to Bank Economic Capital Hulusi Inanoglu and Michael Jacobs, Jr. Enterprise and Credit Risk Analysis Divisions June 2009 The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency or the Department of the Treasury.
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background and Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background and Motivation (continued) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary and Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary and Conclusions (continued) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Review of the Literature ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Review of the Literature (continued) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology: Value-at-Risk  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Value-at-Risk: The Variance-Covariance Approximation  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Value-at-Risk: The Variance-Covariance Approximation (continued)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology: The Method of Copulas  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology: The Method of Copulas (continued)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology: The Method of Copulas (continued)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology: The Method of Copulas (continued)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology: The Method of Copulas (continued)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Data Description ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Empirical Results: Summary Statistics (Call Report Data)
Empirical Results: Summary  Statistics (Call Reports & CRSP)
Empirical Results: Summary  Statistics (Call Report Variables)
Empirical Results: Summary  Statistics (Call Report & CRSP)
Empirical Results: Summary Statistics (Risk Proxies)
Historical Quarterly Risk Proxies:  Loss Distributions (1984-2008)
Historical Quarterly Risk Proxies:  Loss Distributions  (Top 200 Banks 1984-2008)
Historical Quarterly Risk Proxies:  Time Series  (1984-2008)
Historical Quarterly Risk Proxies:  Time Series  (Top 200 Banks 1984-2008)
Pairwise Correlations: Pearson vs. Spearman (5 Risk Types 1984-2008)
Pairwise Correlations, Scatters & Histograms (5 Risk Types 1984-2008)
Pairwise Correlations, Scatters & Histograms: 5 Risk Types (Top 200 Banks 1984-2008)
Spearman Correlations:    5 Risk Types Transformed Data
Spearman Correlations:    5 Risk Types Transformed Data (Top 200 Banks)
Dependograms of Multivariate Groupwise Independence Tests
Dependogram of Multivariate Groupwise Independence Tests – Top 200 Banks
Multivariate Groupwise Independence Tests: P-Values
Alternative Risk Measures: 99.97 th  Percentile VaR
99.97 th  Percentile Dollar VaR Across Banks and Methodologies
99.97 th  Percentile VaR/BVA Across Banks and Methodologies
99.97 th  Percentile VaR Diversification Benefit Across Banks and Methodologies
Genest et al (2009) Copula Goodness-of-Fit Test P-values Across Banks and Methodologies
Discussion of 99.97 th  Percentile VaR and % Diversification Benefit & GOF Tests of Model Fit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Alternative Risk Measures: 99 th  Percentile Expected Shortfall
Normal Approximation  Loss Distributions
Normal Approximation  Loss Distribution: Top 200 Banks
Empirical Copula Simulated  Loss Distributions
Empirical Copula Simulated  Loss Distribution: Top 200
Gaussian Copula Simulated  Loss Distributions
Gaussian Copula Simulated  Loss Distribution: Top 200 Banks
Gaussian Copula vs. Normal Approximation & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions
Gaussian Copula vs. Normal Approximation & Empirical Copula Loss Distribution: Top 200 Banks
T-Copula Simulated  Loss Distributions
T-Copula Simulated  Loss Distribution: Top 200 Banks
Student-T Copula vs. Normal Approximation & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions
Student-T Copula vs. Normal Approx. & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions: Top 200 Banks
Archimadean (Gumbel) Simulated  Loss Distributions
Archimadean (Gumbel) Simulated  Loss Distribution: Top 200 Banks
Gumbel Copula vs. Normal Approximation & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions
Gumbel Copula vs. Normal Approx. & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions: Top 200 Banks
Archimadean (Clayton) Simulated  Loss Distributions
Archimadean (Clayton) Simulated  Loss Distribution: Top 200 Banks
Clayton Copula vs. Normal Approximation & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions
Clayton Copula vs. Normal Approx. & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions for Top 200
Archimadean (Frank) Simulated  Loss Distributions
Archimadean (Frank) Simulated  Loss Distribution: Top 200 Banks
Frank Copula vs. Normal Approximation & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions
Frank Copula vs. Normal Approx. & Empirical Copula Loss Distributions for Top 200
Bootstrap Analysis of Risk Measures: 99.97 th  Percentile VaR
Bootstrap of Correlations: 99.97 th  Percentile Dollar VaR Across Banks and Methodologies
Bootstrap of Margins: 99.97 th  Percentile Dollar VaR Across Banks and Methodologies
Bootstrap Analysis of Risk Measures: VaR Diversification%
Bootstrap of Correlations: 99.97 th  Perc. VaR % Diversification Benefit Across Banks and Methodologies
Bootstrap of Margins: 99.97 th  Perc. VaR % Diversification Benefit Across Banks and Methodologies
Discussion: Bootstrap of 99.97 th  Perc. VaR & % Diver. Benefit Across Banks and Methodologies  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Normal Approximation
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Normal Approximation  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification Percentage: Normal Approximation
Bootstrapping of Diversification Percentage: Normal Approximation  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Empirical Copula
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Empirical Copula (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification Percentage: Empirical Copula
Bootstrapping of Diversification Percentage: Empirical Copula  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Gaussian Copula (Correlations)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk  (Correlations): Gaussian Copula (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: Gaussian Copula (Correlations)
Bootstrapping of Diversification % (Correlations): Gaussian Copula (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Gaussian Copula (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk  (Margins): Gaussian Copula  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: Gaussian Copula (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Diversification % (Margins): Gaussian Copula  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk:  T- Copula (Correlations)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk  (Correlations): Student-T Copula  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: T-Copula (Correlations)
Bootstrapping of Diversification % (Correlations): Student-T Copula  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk:  T-Copula (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk (Margins) : Student-T Copula  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: T-Copula (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %  (Margins): Student-T Copula  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Archimadean Gumbel (Correl’s)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk (Correlations) : Archimadean Gumbel (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: Archimadean Gumbel (Correl’s)
Bootstrapping of Diversification % (Correlations) : Archimadean Gumbel (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Archimadean Gumbel (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk (Margins): Archimadean Gumbel  (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: Archimadean Gumbel (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Diversification % (Margins): Archimadean Gumbel (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Archimadean Clayton (Correl.’s)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk (Correlations): Archimadean Clayton (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: Archimadean Clayton (Correl.’s)
Bootstrapping of Diversification % (Correlations): Archimadean Clayton (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk: Archimadean Clayton (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Value-at-Risk (Margins): Archimadean Clayton (Top 200 Banks)
Bootstrapping of Diversification %: Archimadean Clayton (Margins)
Bootstrapping of Diversification (Margins): Archimadean Clayton (Top 200 Banks)
Summary of Contributions and Major Findings ,[object Object],[object Object]
Directions for Future Research ,[object Object],[object Object]

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