What Does it Take to Put All Students on the Graduation Path?
1. What Does it Take to Put All Students on the
Graduation Path?
NAF Next 2012
Robert Balfanz
Everyone Graduates Center
School of Education
Johns Hopkins University
2. We are at the start of what
promises and needs to be a
transformational decade in
American Public Education.
Common college and career ready
standards
Next generation assessments and state
accountability
Individual level longitudinal data
Smart integration of technology
Advancements in teacher quality
3. But millions of students are still
attending high-poverty schools
where:
Achievement gaps become achievement
chasms
High school graduation is not the norm
Few high school graduates complete
college
4. This Can Not Continue
There is no work for young adults
without a high school degree
And no work to support a family without
some post-secondary schooling or
training
As a result entire communities are being
cut off from participation in American
society and a shot at the American
Dream. This weakens the Nation
5. It Also Results in Concentrated
and Intergenerational Poverty
81% of adolescents with parents who
have less than a high school degree live
in low income families
27% of adolescents with at least one
parent who has some college or more
education live in low income families
6. How Big is the Nation’s
Graduation Challenge?
Four Million High School Students in
Class of 2010
Three Million Students Received
Diplomas
75% Overall Graduation Rate
60% Graduation Rate for low income-
minority students
Grad Gap = One Million students without
high school diplomas
Nation has gone from 1st to 12th in 25-34
7. The Good News
We Know Why Students Dropout
We Know Which Schools They Dropout
From
We Know the Warning Signs that
Students Are Falling Off the Path to
Graduation
We Know that Progress is Possible
8. There are Four Main Types of
Dropouts
Life Events (forces outside of school
cause students to dropout)
Fade Outs (students do ok in school but
stop seeing a reason for staying)
Push Outs (students who are or perceived
to be detrimental to others in the school)
Not Succeeding in School, School Not
Succeeding with the Student
9. To Move the Graduation Rate to
90% by 2020 We Will Need 600,000
More Graduates: Where Will We Get
Them?
1640 (12%) of high schools with graduation
rates of 60% or less produce half the
nation’s dropouts
3000 high schools (25%) with graduation
rates between 61 and 75% produce 35% of
the nation’s dropouts
The 10,000 high schools (2/3rds) with
graduation rates greater than 75% produce
just 15% of dropouts
10. We Know Where the Nation’s Low
Graduation Rate High Schools are
Located
About half are located in high poverty
neighborhoods in the Nation’s cities
The other half are mainly located
throughout the South and Southwest-rural
low wealth counties, small towns and
urban fringe
Every state has one
25% are in single high school-school
districts
12. Future Dropouts can be Readily
Identified in Significant Numbers as
Early as 6th Grade
The Primary Off-Track Sixth Graders (1996-97) with an
Early Warning Indicator
Indicators for Potential 100%
Attendance
Dropouts:
• Attendance - <85-90% % of 80% Behavior
school attendance students
who are on-
60%
Math
Literacy
track to 40%
• Behavior - “unsatisfactory” graduation
behavior mark in at least 20%
one class 0%
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ar
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6t
7t
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10
11
12
• Course Performance – A
at
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final grade of “F” in Math
G
Grade in School
and/or English or Credit-
Bearing High School Course
Sixth-grade students with one or more of the indicators may have only a
15% to 25% chance of graduating from high school on time or within
one year of expected graduation.
Note: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated
in 10 cities. and Liza Herzog, Johns Hopkins University; Philadelphia Education Fund
Robert Balfanz
13. In High Poverty School Districts,
75% or More of Eventual Dropouts can
be Identified between the 6th and 9th
Grade
Percent of Dropouts That Can Be
Identified between the 6th and 9th
grade-Boston Class of 2003
End of 6th Grade
24% End of 9th Grade
43%
No Off Track
32% Indicator 6th-9th
Grade
14. Major Findings
Students in high-poverty schools who
successfully navigate grades six through
10 on time and on track, by and large,
graduate from high school (75% or
higher graduation rates).
Students in high-poverty schools who
struggle and become disengaged in the
early secondary grades and in particular
have an unsuccessful 6th- and/or 9th-
grade transition do not graduate (25% or
less graduation rates).
15. Post-Secondary Success Appears to
be Strongly Related to a Strong 9th
Grade Year
Sneak Peak from Forthcoming Report on
Post-Secondary Success Indicators with
Alliance for Excellent Education:
“In a major state to have a 75% chance
of post- secondary attainment - 9th graders
needed to attend 95% of the time, have
a B average, no course failures, no
behavioral incidents, and be on age for
grade. Only 20% of the cohort reached
these milestones.”
16. Solutions Exist and Break
Through Progress is Possible
In the last decade about a quarter of states
and the largest 100 cities have made
substantial progress in increasing their
graduation rates
25% more have made some progress, 25%
have more or less stayed the same, and
25% have gone backwards
National Graduation Rate increased from 72
to 75% (120,000 more graduates)
17. Change in Graduation Rates, 2002–
2009
Half the states move forward.
Half do not.
Progress
Challenge
18. If learning is inherently joyful and
exciting, and students want to
succeed,
why do we have these outcomes?
19. Because by and large the schools
they attend are not designed or
organized to meet the educational
challenges they face.
20. Three Hypotheses on Why
We underestimate the degree or nature
of these schools’ educational
challenges.
We do not design schools attuned to the
developmental needs of students in
general and students who live in poverty
in particular.
We do not integrate efforts to make
attending school worthwhile with efforts
to make schools places where students
21. What we face is a giant engineering
challenge of creating schools
designed to meet the challenge of
graduating all students prepared
for college and career and
within them getting the right
support to the right students at
the right time at the scale and
intensity required.
23. Focus on the ABC’s - Attendance
Measure chronic absenteeism-students
who miss 20 or more days
Create programing that compels
students to come to school - e.g. most
engaged students often found in
cognitively rich activities which combine
teamwork with performance (Robotics,
debate, drama, chess etc.)
Build attendance problem solving
capacity within schools and in
25. Focus on ABC’s - Behavior and
Effort
Model and teach resiliency and self-
management/organization skills
Model and teach staying out of trouble
skills
Build Success Scripts in student’s heads
(effort leads to success), work to
undermine Failure Scripts (life is
capricious, withholding effort keeps you
psychologically safe)
26. We need to be honest that in over-
stressed and under-supported
environments there is a gap between
teachers having high
expectations and students having
high aspirations and a strong belief
that they will be realized. This
leads to diminished effort.
27. To Combat This We Need to Build
Capacity at Teacher, School, and
District Levels
Teachers-collaborative, diagnostic, and
intervention skills (not a GP but House)
Districts and States-managing a
portfolio of schools with different
structures based on need and partners
that provide capacities
28. Focus on ABC’s - Course
Performance
Provide course coaching-assistance,
support, and on occasion even advocacy
which enables students to succeed in
their courses-including monitoring
assignment completion, and preparation
for tests and quizzes, and help with
catching up when absent
Make sure tutoring efforts are linked
tightly with needs and expectations of
student’s courses- (don’t work on
29. Focus on ABC’s – Policy
Schools and communities need to measure and act on
chronic absenteeism-the number of students who miss
a month or more of school (also measure those who
miss a week or less)
Schools and communities need positive behavior
support programs and alternatives to suspensions and
may need to re-examine their disciplinary policies
Schools and communities need effective second
chance and credit recovery programs which hold
students accountable but provide a reason for them to
keep trying
Need to measure students who dropout of school
before high school
30. The Importance of NAF and CTE
Core strategy for “Fade Outs” by
establishing clear pathways from high
school to adult success
Provides more opportunities for students to
learn effort leads to success
“Minds On” work provides a reason for
students to come to school
Demonstrates the power of adult
collaboration-teams of adults working
together to create effective learning
environments can achieve more in high
31. We Will Know
We Are Making Progress When . . .
Schools have strong prevention strategies and cultures
that encourage students to attend, behave, and try
Schools have readily accessible and teacher friendly
early warning systems and diagnostic tools to understand
the academic and socio-emotional needs behind student
disengagement
Schools are organized so teams of teachers work with
manageable numbers of students, supported by a second
shift of adults, with time built in and honored during the
school day for collaborative data-driven work
Clear and supported pathways to college and career
readiness at the scale and intensity required from sixth
32. For More Information
Visit the Everyone Graduates Center website
at www.every1graduates.org
E-mail Robert Balfanz at rbalfanz@jhu.edu
