Residential Issues and Trends Forum 2016, Washington DC
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Slides from Lawrence Yun's presentation at the 2016 Residential Issues and Trends Forum in Washington, DC
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Residential Issues and Trends Forum 2016, Washington DC
- 1. LINDA LEE Chair, Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum
- 2. CHRISTIAN ZARIF Vice Chair, Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum
- 3. HOUSING AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK LAWRENCE YUN, PH.D. CHIEF ECONOMIST NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® PRESENTATION IN WASHINGTON, D.C. MAY 12, 2016
- 4. EXISTING HOME SALES – MODERATE RECOVERY 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000
- 5. NATIONAL PENDING SALES INDEX – GOOD SIGNS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 2014 - Jan 2014 - Mar 2014 - May 2014 - Jul 2014 - Sep 2014 - Nov 2015 - Jan 2015 - Mar 2015 - May 2015 - Jul 2015 - Sep 2015 - Nov 2016 - Jan 2016 - Mar Source: NAR
- 6. REGIONAL PENDING CONTRACTS (% CHANGE FROM ONE YEAR AGO TO MARCH) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Northeast Midwest South West
- 7. REGIONAL MEDIAN PRICE CHANGE (3-YEAR PRICE CHANGE FROM 2012 TO 2015) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Northeast Midwest South West
- 8. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INCOME GAP AT 3.8% MORTGAGE RATE 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Northeast Midwest South West Actual Income Qualifying Income
- 9. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INCOME GAP AT 6% MORTGAGE RATE 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Northeast Midwest South West Actual Income Qualifying Income Higher Qualifying Income
- 10. VERY CYCLICAL VACATION HOME SALES (50% DECLINE AND 100% INCREASE) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
- 11. NEW HOME SALES – STILL SUPER LOW (75% DECLINE AND 60% GAIN) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
- 12. SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS – GROSSLY INADEQUATEThousand units 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2016 - Jan
- 13. RISING SHARE OF PRICEY NEW HOMES 0 100 200 300 400 500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Under $200,000 $200,000 range Over $300,000
- 14. NEW HOME PRICE VS. EXISTING HOME PRICE $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan 2013-Jul 2014-Jan 2014-Jul 2015-Jan 2015-Jul 2016-Jan New Existing
- 15. LOW INVENTORY MONTHS SUPPLY 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2000-Jan 2000-Jun 2000-Nov 2001-Apr 2001-Sep 2002-Feb 2002-Jul 2002-Dec 2003-May 2003-Oct 2004-Mar 2004-Aug 2005-Jan 2005-Jun 2005-Nov 2006-Apr 2006-Sep 2007-Feb 2007-Jul 2007-Dec 2008-May 2008-Oct 2009-Mar 2009-Aug 2010-Jan 2010-Jun 2010-Nov 2011-Apr 2011-Sep 2012-Feb 2012-Jul 2012-Dec 2013-May 2013-Oct 2014-Mar 2014-Aug 2015-Jan 2015-Jun 2015-Nov
- 17. EVEN LOWER INVENTORY IN RELATION TO HOUSEHOLDS 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2016 - Jan
- 18. MULTIFAMILY HOUSING STARTS – SUFFICIENTLY ADEQUATE 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2016 - Jan
- 19. RENTAL VACANCY RATE – LOW BUT STABILIZING 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000-Q1 2000-Q3 2001-Q1 2001-Q3 2002-Q1 2002-Q3 2003-Q1 2003-Q3 2004-Q1 2004-Q3 2005-Q1 2005-Q3 2006-Q1 2006-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2009-Q1 2009-Q3 2010-Q1 2010-Q3 2011-Q1 2011-Q3 2012-Q1 2012-Q3 2013-Q1 2013-Q3 2014-Q1 2014-Q3 2015-Q1 2015-Q3 2016-Q1
- 20. BIG DRIVER OF FUTURE INFLATION RENTS RISING AT 7-YEAR HIGH -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan 2013-Jul 2014-Jan 2014-Jul 2015-Jan 2015-Jul 2016-Jan Renters' Rent
- 21. NO CPI INFLATION – YET, BUT HIGHER FUTURE INFLATION WITH NUDGE RATES HIGHER -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan 2013-Jul 2014-Jan 2014-Jul 2015-Jan 2015-Jul
- 22. RELIEF ON RENT? • If higher rent then higher inflation and higher mortgage rates • If lower rent than lower inflation and steady mortgage rates
- 23. WIDENING METRO HOME PRICES (640% VS. 241% GROWTH FROM 1980) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1980-Q1 1981-Q1 1982-Q1 1983-Q1 1984-Q1 1985-Q1 1986-Q1 1987-Q1 1988-Q1 1989-Q1 1990-Q1 1991-Q1 1992-Q1 1993-Q1 1994-Q1 1995-Q1 1996-Q1 1997-Q1 1998-Q1 1999-Q1 2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1 San Francisco Indianapolis $ thousand
- 24. SAN FRANCISCO AREA OUTMIGRATION • 47,894 out of SF County • 37,378 out of San Mateo County • 73,925 out of Santa Clara County • 71,551 out of Alameda County • Seattle • Portland • Boise • Salt Lake City • Denver • Austin • Raleigh
- 25. WIDENING JOBS MOBILE AND CHARLESTON SC 150 200 250 300 350 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2016 - Jan In thousands
- 26. BOEING AIRPLANE MADE IN CHARLESTON
- 27. WIDENING JOBS NASHVILLE AND MEMPHIS 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2000-Jan 2000-Jun 2000-Nov 2001-Apr 2001-Sep 2002-Feb 2002-Jul 2002-Dec 2003-May 2003-Oct 2004-Mar 2004-Aug 2005-Jan 2005-Jun 2005-Nov 2006-Apr 2006-Sep 2007-Feb 2007-Jul 2007-Dec 2008-May 2008-Oct 2009-Mar 2009-Aug 2010-Jan 2010-Jun 2010-Nov 2011-Apr 2011-Sep 2012-Feb 2012-Jul 2012-Dec 2013-May 2013-Oct 2014-Mar 2014-Aug 2015-Jan 2015-Jun 2015-Nov In thousands
- 28. WIDENING JOBS GRAND RAPIDS AND FLINT 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan 2013-Jul 2014-Jan 2014-Jul 2015-Jan 2015-Jul 2016-Jan In thousands
- 29. JOBS (8 MILLION LOST … 14 MILLION GAINED) 120,000 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan 2013-Jul 2014-Jan 2014-Jul 2015-Jan 2015-Jul 2016-Jan In thousands
- 30. TOP AND BOTTOM STATES FOR JOBS The Best % Gain in 12 months Idaho 3.8 Utah 3.5 Nevada 3.4 Florida 3.0 Washington 3.0 California 2.9 South Carolina 2.9 Oregon 2.7 Arizona 2.3 The Worst % Gain in 12 months Wyoming 0.2 Oklahoma 0.1 Louisiana -0.4 West Virginia -1.8 North Dakota -2.0
- 33. JOBS IN NORTH DAKOTA 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 500 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2016 - Jan In thousands
- 34. JOBS IN PUERTO RICO 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 2000-Jan 2000-Jun 2000-Nov 2001-Apr 2001-Sep 2002-Feb 2002-Jul 2002-Dec 2003-May 2003-Oct 2004-Mar 2004-Aug 2005-Jan 2005-Jun 2005-Nov 2006-Apr 2006-Sep 2007-Feb 2007-Jul 2007-Dec 2008-May 2008-Oct 2009-Mar 2009-Aug 2010-Jan 2010-Jun 2010-Nov 2011-Apr 2011-Sep 2012-Feb 2012-Jul 2012-Dec 2013-May 2013-Oct 2014-Mar 2014-Aug 2015-Jan 2015-Jun 2015-Nov In thousands
- 35. WHO’S ON DECK AFTER PUERTO RICO? States (worst and best) Unfunded Liability % Illinois 57% Kentucky 50% Connecticut 47% Louisiana 44% New Hampshire 43% Tennessee 8% North Carolina 5% South Dakota 4% Washington 2% Wisconsin 0%
- 36. BIGGEST LIES OCCUR … • After Fishing • During a War • Before an Election
- 37. FEDERAL DEBT … CUMULATIVE ( $ MILLION; DEBT HELD BY PUBLIC EXCLUDING INTRA-GOVERNMENTAL HOLDINGS) 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2015 - Jan
- 39. NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES … GOOD-BYE BEN?
- 41. BORROWERS NOT DEFAULTING – ESPECIALLY VETERANS (SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATE) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2005 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q1 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q3 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q3 2011 - Q1 2011 - Q3 2012 - Q1 2012 - Q3 2013 - Q1 2013 - Q3 2014 - Q1 2014 - Q3 2015 - Q1 2015 - Q3 All Mortgages VA Mortgages
- 42. RISING HOUSING WEALTH 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2000-Q1 2000-Q4 2001-Q3 2002-Q2 2003-Q1 2003-Q4 2004-Q3 2005-Q2 2006-Q1 2006-Q4 2007-Q3 2008-Q2 2009-Q1 2009-Q4 2010-Q3 2011-Q2 2012-Q1 2012-Q4 2013-Q3 2014-Q2 2015-Q1 2015-Q4 Real Estate Value Mortgage Debt $ billion
- 43. MORTGAGE RATES SAY TODAY’S HOMEBUYERS ARE LUCKIEST IN A GENERATION 0 5 10 15 20 1971 - Jan 1974 - Jan 1977 - Jan 1980 - Jan 1983 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1989 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1995 - Jan 1998 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2016 - Jan %
- 44. BUT UNLUCKIEST IN BECOMING HOMEOWNERS 60 62 64 66 68 70 1970-Q1 1971-Q4 1973-Q3 1975-Q2 1977-Q1 1978-Q4 1980-Q3 1982-Q2 1984-Q1 1985-Q4 1987-Q3 1989-Q2 1991-Q1 1992-Q4 1994-Q3 1996-Q2 1998-Q1 1999-Q4 2001-Q3 2003-Q2 2005-Q1 2006-Q4 2008-Q3 2010-Q2 2012-Q1 2013-Q4 2015-Q3 %
- 45. STUDENT LOAN … NAR-ASA STUDY IMPLIES 5 YEAR DELAY (IN $BILLION) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2006… 2006… 2007… 2007… 2008… 2008… 2009… 2009… 2010… 2010… 2011… 2011… 2012… 2012… 2013… 2013… 2014… 2014… 2015… 2015…
- 46. HOMEOWNERSHIP PARTICULARLY LOW FOR MINORITY HOUSEHOLDS 72.1 41.5 45.3 53.0 0 20 40 60 80 White Black Hispanic Other ? %
- 47. HOMEOWNERSHIP PARTICULARLY LOW FOR MINORITY HOUSEHOLDS 72.1 41.5 45.3 53.0 0 20 40 60 80 White Black Hispanic Asian ? %
- 48. TUITION COSTS AT HARVARD?
- 49. FORECAST
- 50. ECONOMIC FORECAST 2014 2015 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast GDP Growth 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% Job Growth +3.0 million +2.6 million +1.6 million +2.2 million CPI Inflation 1.6% 0.3% 1.7% 3.0% 10-year Treasury 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8%
- 51. HOUSING FORECAST 2014 2015 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast New Home Sales 437,000 500,000 540,000 600,000 Existing Home Sales 4.9 million 5.3 million 5.4 million 5.5 million Median Price Growth + 5.7% + 6.8% +4.5% 3.2% 30-year Rate 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 4.6%
- 53. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION STRONG FEELINGS, FOR AND AGAINST
- 54. POLLS: PEOPLE DO NOT LIKE TRUMP OR CLINTON! SAY NO TO DEMOCRACY AND YES TO PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS? Singapore - – Had no Democracy – Higher per capita income than U.S. – Futuristic city – English: official language – Strong private property rights protection
- 55. REALTORS® BELIEVE IN DEMOCRACY AND PROPERTY RIGHTS
- 56. THE HONORABLE ELIZABETH WARREN Senator, (D – Massachusetts)