Birnbach Communications Predictions for 2013

BCI Positioning

Dec. 14, 2011
Predictions for 2013

Why The Story Matters ● www.birnbachcom.com 1

Introduction
• For more than 10 years, Birnbach
Communications has compiled an annual
list of media trends for its clients. The
trends help the agency's clients work more
effectively with
reporters, analysts, bloggers, and
customers on social networking sites.


The Story Still Matters
• Even in a communications age limited by Twitter
to 140 characters, the story and messages
continue to matter, and are an important part of
how companies remain relevant.
• But the impact of social media is that stories
need to be told not just shorter but
differently. They need visuals (still photos and
video); text alone isn't enough. They need to be
more frequent; you can't issue marketing
materials in Jan. and feel you're done for the
year.
• And the stories companies tell must be very
customer focused and be easily shareable. And
stories have to be about offering tips and lessons
learned because social media is all about offering
advice as a way to show a company's expertise.


Corporate Values & Personality
Matter
• As a part of corporate branding, values have always mattered but
corporate personality may not have been important. After all, the
differences between Coke and Pepsi aren’t significant. The same
is true for McDonald's and Burger King. But there is a difference
between Microsoft vs. Apple vs. Google.
• And that's certainly true of what otherwise might seem like
commoditized sectors; insurance branding in advertising seems to
be all about each company's personality -- you don't need to be a
psychologist to grasp the differences between
Geico, Progressive, All-State and Liberty Mutual (Disclosure: we
have done project work for Liberty Mutual). And in 2013 and
beyond, social media will multiply the impact of values and
corporate personality. Companies need to be prepared to
communicate not just their selling proposition but also their values
and personality as they engage with customers via social media.
(Be prepared for a lot of companies to try to appear edgy...even if
they're not.)


Social Media is Relevant for B2Bs
• In 2013, it's not only B2C companies that need a social
media strategy; B2B companies will need one, too, because
it should be clear to them that their customers are
online, whether as part of their personal or professional lives.
Social media isn’t about telling your friends about what
you're having for lunch or sharing the latest LOL cats clip
(or, at least, not only about that). It is where people go to get
and share information.
• B2B companies that have been reluctant to engage on social
media need to realize that social media provides them with
the opportunity to reach customers in ways that ads in
traditional print publications are not doing -- and we think
2013 will be that year.


The Battle for the Living Room
• Who can supply the highest of the ultra high definition TVs?
At CES, there was a battle between OLED (organic light-
emitting diode) versus 4K high definition known as UHD (ultra
high def), which offers four times the pixels of 1080p high-def
displays. However, a similar problem that plagues 3D TV –
lack of 3D content – will likely plague UHD because UHD TVs
work best with video shot in UHD.
• Additionally, UHD requires a lot of memory: UHD movies
need 10 terabytes, which is about 2,500 times more than a
standard HD movie and comes at a time when most
Americans don’t even have one terabyte to hold all their
movies and music.
• Another problem: The huge cost of UHD sets: an 84-inch set
currently costs $25,000 – raising two important questions:
“For the same money, do you buy a car instead?” And “Who
has the wall space to display a seven-foot screen?


Battle Between Different Streaming
Services & Cable
• Until last year, this was basically a battle between
Hulu and Netflix and Amazon Prime. This year, the
market got more crowded, with the entry of Redbox
along with cable and satellite companies now offering
streaming video.
• Don’t expect prices to drop from around $5 to $10 per
month. (If people are subscribing to streamed video
services to watch on their tablets, what are the
implications for TV manufacturers getting ready to sell
$25,000 TVs?)
• Because Netflix is the only public company offering
streamed video, we expect that its earnings will get a
lot of coverage because it will be seen as a belle
weather for the entire industry.


Battle Among Tech Giants
• The media have a boxing ring mentality: They love to report
on the battle between two competing companies. So we
expect continued high level of coverage of
Apple, Google, Samsung and Microsoft in their battle for
supremacy. Of course, those four hypercompetitive
companies are often battling other companies as well.
(Yes, we've included this prediction in prior years – we feel
that the media continues to be fascinated by this story and
see no end in sight.)
• Interestingly, over the past year, Samsung has leveraged
Android to become a major global player in the smartphone
and tablet sectors, which is having an impact on both Apple
(as an iPhone and iPad competitor) and on Google (since
Samsung, as the de facto Android leader, could ask to
renegotiate its agreements with Google, cutting Google’s
margins).


Battle for Map Supremacy
• Apparently there’s big business in offering
maps – even though most map providers don’t
charge users for directions. Instead, they
make money through mobile ads and services.
We think that this should get more attention in
2013 as a result of Apple’s initial map app fail.
• Mapping is important because in order to be
successful at enabling (and charging for)
hyperlocal marketing, those companies need
to be proficient at mapping.


Apple TV & the Future of TV
• We could have lumped this one in either the Battle
for the Living Room or streaming video content.
However, given everyone's fascination with what
Apple is doing, we expect to see continued
speculation of how Apple plans to disrupt the TV-
viewing experience through plans for a possible
Apple TV set, and the implications from a
programming and TV set-manufacturing
perspective.
• Despite Apple’s persistent denials that it is not
developing its own TV set, we expect to see more
articles about Apple's effort into redesigning a TV
set for how we watch today.


Automated Home &
Smart Appliance
• As smart appliances and devices like Internet-connected
refrigerators and ovens become available, expect more media
coverage about them. A problem for smart appliance
manufacturers is that people tend to hold onto refrigerators for a
long time so what seems smart today won’t feel so smart a
decade from now.
• Appliance makers will need to find ways to make the displays and
the software running the smart appliances to be easily
upgradeable.
• Another challenge: The lack of interoperability – the ability for one
smart device to be able to communicate effectively with another
smart appliance. If you buy one brand of toaster, will it be able to
“talk” with your refrigerator? If they can’t, you basically have a
Kitchen of Babel. Appliance manufacturers will need to make sure
their appliances can talk to each other (and not just to the apps on
your smartphone).


3D Printers: Not Yet Ready for Prime
Time
• 2013 will be the year in which the media proclaims the arrival
of 3D printers -- which can make three-dimensional solid
copies from an original item. The technology enabling 3D
printers has matured significantly but it still seems somewhat
of an early adopter item. If people have problems with paper
jams in regular printers, just imagine the potential problems
with 3D printers.
• We think that obstacles to purchasing 3D printers, for most
households, include limited use for most households, the
learning curve on how to use it, costs of the necessary
supplies to create 3D replicas, and the need for technical
support. We do expect that media and blogger coverage of
3D printers will focus on how cool it is, and that the business
press will look at the implications for U.S. manufacturing.


3 Most Important Trends:
Mobile, Mobile, Mobile
• More than anything else, what’s driving innovation is the need for
mobile access. The great enablers of mobile include: Increased
wireless network speeds and the increased push of cloud
computing. It's in developing the latest apps to serve the latest
tablets, smartphones and hybrids.
• We don't necessarily want to use our phones to actually speak to
other people but we want phones that have apps that allow us to
communicate with our appliances (even if we're not home), to allow
us to work (even if we're not in the office), to shop for and pay for
items (whether we're in the store or at the beach), and to access
information we need with no connectivity or bandwidth issues.
• If your products are not optimized for mobile by 2018, you may not
be in business.
• Also important: mobile ads and mobile search.


Forecast: cloud is everywhere
• Cloud computing, which stores applications and content
offsite so you can access it on any device, is a big driver of
mobile computing.
• In 2013, more companies will rely on the cloud for access to
proprietary information that would have been inconceivable
just a few years ago. And while the benefits of cloud
computing includes lower cost, there could be a backlash
about hidden costs as consumers realize that over time they
may be paying out more than if they relied on portable storage
devices, which are less convenient but offer a one-time cost.
(Of course, another benefit to the cloud is that your content is
automatically backed up elsewhere by your cloud provider.)
We also expect a few outages this year that but that they
won't have much impact on the cloud's momentum. We also
think that resistance to the cloud is futile.


BYOD will be go mainstream
• After increasing in corporate and media
consciousness for the past two years, we
expect that BYOD (Bring Your Own Device to
the office), a term that refers to employees
using their own smartphones and tablets at
work, instead of sometimes less-
powerful, less user-friendly devices and
applications, will become pervasive enough
that the media will be able to refer to it
without having to spell it out. (By the
way, BYOD is another benefit of the cloud.)


Jobs, unemployment & recruiting
• There will be a lot of coverage on the impact of
ObamaCare, regulations, taxes, and spending cuts on job creation
and job growth -- with prescriptive op-ed articles in the New York
Times taking drastically opposing perspectives from those appearing
in the Wall St. Journal.
• Expect that immigration reform, particularly H1B visas needed by
skilled foreign employees to work in the U.S., will also get a lot of
coverage. Interestingly, while unemployment figures remain higher
than either party would like, high tech and biotech companies are
having difficulty finding qualified job candidates to fill open job --
making H1B visas an important issue.
• Expect that some to make the argument that the way to solve the
job creation issue is a matter of addressing priorities within our
education system, such as our lack of science and math
teachers, which decreases the number of students interested in
science and math. (However, in our polarized environment, expect
opposition to spending more on education and job training.)


Businesses will continue to push STEM
• Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) probably
won't generate a lot of media attention but we think it will
continue to an important trend. More schools are focused on
STEM projects (to the extent that few media articles actually
feel the need to spell out what the acronym stands for), and
more far-thinking businesses in related fields are realizing
they need to support STEM projects in order to nurture future
employees.
• FIRST, a robotics competition founded by inventor Dean
Kamen, is flourishing because its LEGO-based robotics
competition for elementary students is popular while its
robotics competition for high school students draw increased
support from businesses, executives who agree to
mentor, etc. (Disclosure: we have done project work for
FIRST.) STEM may not generate much coverage in 2013 but
we still think it is an important trend.


App burnout

• There are probably a million apps now on
iTunes, Android Market, Google Apps
Marketplace, Windows Phone Apps Store, but most of us
use only a fraction of the apps we downloaded.
• Just because there’s an app for that, doesn’t mean
people actually use the app after downloading it.
• One implication is that it will start becoming difficult to
get potential users to download new apps. We expect
more coverage of this trend – way more apps than users
– discussing the implications for app developers and the
smartphone environment.


Mobile Search
• Search continues to be important, but mobile
search, which includes hyperlocal functions
(i.e., points of interest immediately around
your smartphone), will become increasingly
important in 2013.
• While Google has a tremendous lead, expect
media coverage for smaller, as yet unknown
but more focused players to emerge. After
all, Google is a lot more than just a search
engine; it’s about driverless
cars, computerized glasses, etc.


Robotics will generate buzz

• We're not at a point of having humanized
(if fussy) droids like C3P0 but we expect
that advances in robotics to generate
some coverage in even the more staid
business publications (beyond Wired and
Fast Company).


Biotech consolidation
• The biotech sector is undergoing significant change
from a variety of pressures that include the continued
high cost of drug development and structural
pressures from ObamaCare. We've seen a lot of
consolidation among Big Pharma (which should be
known as Bigger Pharma) and the rise of virtual
biotechs, shifts in research funding from Big Pharma
to VCs.
• Increased regulation and scrutiny will make drug
development more complex (i.e., expensive) but the
FDA is also focused on spurring development of more
cost-effective alternatives. Either way, expect that the
biotech is evolving, and will continue to evolve over
the next two years.


Regulatory changes will continue to
impact financial services firms
• The challenge will be staying ahead of the
changes. New banking and financial
regulations will generate coverage, as does
articles that examine the potential
implications. But the daily work of how to
meet those regulations rarely ever get the
media's attention because the work involved
is so technical.
• The lack of media coverage doesn't mean
that how companies deal with regulatory
change isn't a compelling trend.


Premature deathwatch of things that
are very much alive
• One type of story reporters and bloggers like to
write is the purported death of various, usually
popular items, devices or technology. PowerPoint
to email to texting and beyond have been
proclaimed dead, even as those technologies
continue to be used. We suspect these death
wishes are a backlash to ubiquity combined with
enormous frustration with the tech itself.
• The list of tech whose reported death is an
exaggeration seems destined to grow larger with
every year so here are candidates for 2013


Premature DeathWatch:
Tech Edition
• e-Readers: Just as ebooks are outselling hardcopy books, we
expect a backlash affect saying that e-readers are dead because of
the iPad and the iPad Mini. Yet we think e-readers will continue to
sell because they weigh less and are easier to hold than tablets and
because their screens are designed to be read in full sunlight
(something you can’t do on an iPad)
• Flash: Because of the popularity of Apple devices that are designed
not to use Flash, some people have predicted Flash’s death. But
there are still a lot of PCs out there that can use Flash. We say it’s
not dead yet.
• PCs: Last year, we said we expected that Post-PC would be a term
we’d hear a lot – and we did – but though PC sales are
declining, there’s still some life in PCs yet. There are still some
things that you can do more easily and efficiently on a PC than a
tablet so don’t write them off – just yet. We think Ultrabooks and
devices like Microsoft’s Surface Pro (part-PC/part-tablet) will
continue to be in use through the end of the decade.


Entertainment Edition
• Cable TV: With all the articles about cord-cutting, you’d think all households
were abandoning cable. That’s not the case, exactly. There are still
programming like sports and local TV that you can’t easily get via
Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, etc. And if you have to pay for all the
streaming services to replicate cable, you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated
when you cobble together different services and that you’ll wind up paying
several hundred bucks a year.
• 3D TVs and 3D glasses: Though it was the much hyped tech from last
year’s CES, 3D TVs never took off. The reason: There’s just not enough 3D
content available to make it worth purchasing 3D TVs. A year later, there’s
still not enough 3D content, and it doesn’t look like much is being
developed, except for some 3D movies, which also aren’t meeting
expectations. But if 3D movies didn’t die in the 1950s, when they were
pioneered, we bet that 3D isn’t completely dead. Another reason people
proclaim the death of 3D TVs is the launch of 4K and OLED TVs, which
offer ultra high definition screens the size of entire walls. However, those
UHD sets are also ultra expensive so we don’t expect to see them in
everyone’s living room for some time. Please note: we do think 3D glasses
for living room use is dead.


Entertainment Edition
• Blu-ray machines and DVDs: Typically the deaths of Blu-ray and DVDs
are proclaimed for the same root cause: people prefer to stream video
rather than own DVDs that can be scratched and destroyed and can only be
played on certain devices (like Blu-ray players) that you can’t easily take
with you everywhere. But the fact is lots of people own lots of DVDs, and
we don’t think people are going to be willing to throw their collections into
the scrap heap of history just yet. Besides, DVDs offer featurettes that you
can’t access from streaming video sites, which is often why people buy
DVDs of their favorite movies. Also, for some households, the easiest way
to access the streaming sites is through their Blu-ray players so don’t them
out just yet.
• Radio: Funny thing is that radio was supposed to have died years ago
when MTV launched in 1979. Yet radio continues on, even in an era of
iTunes. That’s not true of cassette tapes, as evidenced that no new cars
come equipped with tape players and that last year Sony actually stopped
producing the Walkman, its pioneering portable music player. We’ll know
radio is dead when car manufacturers stop including radios in new cars. But
until that time, consider radio’s death to be premature.


Premature DeathWatch
• Landlines and cellphones that aren’t smartphones: The death of
the landline has been foretold for several years. And while we know
of some people who have given up their landline and only use a
cellphone, and even more people who maintain a landline but never
check their landline’s voicemail, the vast majority of Americans
continue to own a landline even if they don’t use it regularly. What’s
saving the landline? Packages that combine phone, Internet and
cable offerings and because a landline is probably the cheapest
communications service most of us use. As for dumb phones, they’ll
continue as long as parents want to equip their kids with a phone for
emergencies but one that won’t distract them as a smartphone will.
• CES: Last year we said CES was being supplanted by SXSW, which
focuses more on social media and apps. We stand by that but we
don’t think CES is dead, it’s just declining in impact. There were far
fewer articles and broadcast stories covering the latest CES tech but
CES still gets covered (even if to say how boring it was).


Premature DeathWatch: Office Edition
• Press releases: Reporters have been wishing for press releases to
die just as VCs have been wishing the death of PowerPoint so that
they never have to be bored again in another pitch meeting. Despite
social media, there’s still a place and a value to press releases.
• Paper: Back in June 1975, BusinessWeek published an article
called “The Office of the Future” that included some prescient
thoughts that have come true – like messages available on a “TV-
display terminal with keyboard” – along with this: “Some believe that
the paperless office is not that far off.” Some feel that the cloud will
finally get rid of paper because you will be able to access your files
everywhere so you won’t need paper. However, printed
materials, including press kits and presentation folders, are still
important ways to transmit information in ways that support and
extend branding. Based on the clutter we see in many offices, we
don’t think a paperless office is actually going to happen or that it’s
necessarily a sign of progress (except for having less messy
offices).


Premature DeathWatch: Office Edition
• The Office: Not the NBC sitcom, which will go off the air this
year, but the need for offices as we’ve used them. There have been
a spate of illustrated articles portraying offices of the future based on
the impact of new or nearly here technology – the result: articles that
still play off the concept of the paperless office (see below) and
office hoteling, a first-come, first-serve concept for allocating
temporary office space within large companies that has been around
for more than a decade. From our perspective, people love to hate
their offices, and these articles that often depict an officeless future
are more wish fulfillment than actual transformation. That
said, current technologies like cloud computing and
videoconferencing do facilitate working from locations other than
from an office, and we’ve seen a steady increase in telecommuting
and working from home, leading to articles about tech in bed – but
for a lot of jobs, an office will remain necessary.


Social Media Edition
• Privacy: Facebook and most social media has basically killed off the
traditional definition of privacy -- nothing new about that. But pundits
proclaim privacy is dead overlook the fact that each time Facebook
revises its privacy policies, there's often media coverage and a
negative response. (Of course, the negative response has never
stopped Facebook.)
• Social media gurus: Actually, this is not a media trend as much as
it is a Twitter trend for people to identify themselves as social media
gurus. One recent study reported there are 181,000 social media
gurus, ninjas and mavens on Twitter. Most of the ones we see claim
to be gurus and to be able to help you generate thousands of
followers – yet, anecdotally, many so-called gurus have relatively
few followers themselves.
• Media relations: Social media is no longer just for early-adopting
B2B companies but media relations continues to be important. By
the end of the decade, both media relations and social media will
converge into a single integrated effort.


Ongoing Stories: Political Edition
• The implementation and implications of ObamaCare: What works, what
doesn't; why it will take years to achieve its goals, why it won't achieve its
goals; how healthcare delivery systems need to be revamped -- whatever
your political beliefs and personal experiences, you can bet that you can
see it expressed in an op-ed article somewhere and then countered by
letters to the editor.
• Gun control laws: Another very hot button political issue that will continue
to generate coverage throughout the year. Also expect that reform of our
mental health system to get a lot of coverage. (What hasn't received
coverage to date is that part of the reason the mental health system was
dismantled in the 1960s and 1970s was due to costs, not just abuses
against patients in the system. The costs and privacy issues related to
mental health reform should generate some coverage in 2013.)
• Deficits, spending cuts, taxes, etc.: As with healthcare, expect that
editorial and op-ed pages as well as political radio and TV shows will be
littered with opposing perspectives of the steps the country should take.
Debate may be worthwhile but don't expect Congress to be any less
dysfunctional.


Ongoing Stories: Security Edition
• Cybercrime and cyberwarfare: There will be a lot of articles about China
as a source for cyberespionage and policy articles about how the U.S.
should protect itself from its largest creditor. Expect regular front-page
coverage about the latest exploits against the U.S. and U.S. companies. A
big concern: our security and intelligence agencies don't have enough
trained personnel to protect against and prevent cyberattacks; and they lack
the resources to fully identify and prosecute cybercriminals. We also expect
to see a rise in the number of stories about cyberstalking and “revenge
porn,” where jilted exes post incriminating (and often false) information as a
way to get back at former spouses, lovers, and friends.
• Privacy: Usually to be filed as Facebook and privacy, and what consumers
should do to protect their privacy. But, despite the recent news that Kim
Kardashian is quitting her reality show because she's ready to keep some
aspects of her life private, expect two things: 1) Kardashian and boyfriend
Kanye West will not keep photos of their soon-to-be born baby under wraps;
and 2) Most of the rest of us will continue to abridge our own privacy by
posting comments, updates and photos on a growing range of social media
platforms.


Ongoing Stories: Money Edition
• Salaries paid women vs. men. There were a few articles percolating in
2012 that men continue to get paid more than women for the same jobs. We
think there’s a good chance that this issue will rightfully garner more
attention in 2013.
• Cashless payments. Last year, we said that digital wallets or e-wallets will
would be mainstream by 2017. At the end of 2012, we moved that up to
2016. We now rarely go anywhere without our phones, and we already use
our smartphones to make purchases online so it makes sense that we will
forgo carrying a wallet.
• Key issues that remain include: There are several competing e-wallets
standards being developed by often fierce competitors who in some cases
are working together – but they need to find a way they can work together;
you don’t want to be in a situation where your Google Wallet doesn’t work
because the retailer is using Isis from AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. Another
key issue is the systems retailers will need to deploy to accept cashless
payments; we’re not sure that Near Field Communications (NFC) readers
will take off because of the additional cost to retailers. We expect the
industry to solve this in order to facilitate the mainstreaming of e-wallets.


Ongoing Stories: Money Edition
• Crowdsourcing/daily deals: We think the media isn’t tired
yet of reporting on interesting stories about companies that
crowdsourced their way to success. But the bar has been
raised because the fact that you’re crowdsourcing isn’t
enough to generate coverage – your company has to be
doing something else that’s relevant. Meanwhile, the daily
deal business has lost buzz – we’re not saying it’s going
away, just that there will be fewer stories about daily deal
sites, with one exception. We expect coverage of Groupon
from a business, management and share-price perspective.
• Fees: We don’t actually expect there to be a lot of coverage of
how companies use fees to cover costs and raise revenues.
However, we expect companies to continue to rely on fees on
services they used to provide for free to boost their bottom
lines.


Ongoing Stories: Misc. Edition
• Made in the USA: Look for stories about small manufacturers
whose business is growing as a result. This is the result of
rising costs in India, China, Russia and Brazil, which will make
the benefits out offshore outsourcing decline enough to make
it more attractive to bring some manufacturing back home.
• Star Wars: Not the Reagan-era defense system, but the
actual Star Wars. With the next installment of Star Wars
expected to reach movie theatres in 2013 (assuming there will
still be movies theatres, and that we're not all downloading the
latest releases on our many devices), we can expect a
growing number of articles and references in pop culture to JJ
Abrams' next movie, including much speculation about the
actors (will Harrison Ford reprise Han Solo?), the story, etc.


Ongoing Tech Trends
• Cloud computing: This trend started in 2010 and quickly became
mainstream.
• Hybrid IT: Part on premise, part in the cloud: Companies need the
best of both cloud computing and on-premise technology. We see
this as a hot tech trends.
• The battle of tablets: After several years of breathless media
coverage, the battle for tablet supremacy began when
Apple, recognizing a vulnerability in its product line, launched the
iPad Mini. Last year, we said it was a two-horse race between iPads
and the Kindle Fire but expect a third player to gain traction – enter
the Samsung Galaxy. This story has just begun.
• Gaming for business: Gaming will continue to be integrated into
business and training apps to keep people engaged and
entertained.
• Big data: The media will continue to cover big data as it continues
to go mainstream…until big data is supplanted by the next data
trend.


Ongoing Tech Trends
• Consumerization of enterprise apps: Enterprise apps had been
hard-to-use but the mobile and BYOD trends has meant that
formerly ugly enterprise apps now must be intuitive and easy to use.
This push for ease of use also comes from the millennials, who
expect enterprise apps to work like consumer apps.
• Second screens: Increasingly people watch television programs
with their tablets, too, so they can comment real-time on what
they’re watching. Helping customers express themselves and buy
while they’re watching TV is going to be an important from a
marketing perspective in the coming years.
• Infographics: We expect companies to use infographics – visual
representations of information like survey data – to make information
shareable via social media but we don’t expect print media to reprint
corporate inforgraphics because they typically take up too much of a
user’s screen, particularly on smartphones. That doesn’t mean
infographics are not worth producing, it just means B2B companies
need to be realistic in terms of goals for their use.


Questions?
Comments?
Agree or Disagree?
Let us know
Norman Birnbach
Birnbach Communications
781.639.6701
birnbach@birnbachcom.com
www.birnbachcom.com
www.twitter.com/normanbirnbach


Birnbach Communications Predictions for 2013

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