Assessing the implications of long term climate trends and interconnected risks.

1. Global Risks, Trends, and Water
Implications for Climate Change
Lauren Alexander Augustine, Ph.D.
National Academy of Sciences
OECD High Level Risk Forum
December 2015

2. Bottom Line
1. Water security affects multiple aspects of
development, security, and economy on the
global scale
2. Climate change effects on water and drought
are not linear processes, and they can often
have unintended cascading effects
3. Strategies for having more positive outcomes
for climate change will require multi-
stakeholder approaches
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3. GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS
Climate Change and Water
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4. Risks and Trends
Risk: an uncertain event or condition, that if it
occurs, can cause substantial negative impact
Trends: long-term patterns that currently take
place that can/could amplify risks
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5. Global Risks and Impacts
5World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2015

6. Statistics on Water
• About 70% of the worlds current fresh water withdrawals
are used for agriculture; up to 90% in the world’s least
developed countries
• 1 billion people lack access to improved water today
– 2.7 billion people –40% of the world’s population—suffer water
shortages at least one month per year
– OECD estimates 4 billion people could live in water scarce areas
by 2050
• Water management is strongly related to governance
• Water and Energy: US uses 40% of fresh, surface water for
energy production; Europe about 30%; and demand for
water for energy and industry is estimated to rise by 70% in
Asia by 2030
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7. World Urbanization 2010-2050
7Map: WWF Living Planet Report, 2012

8. Water Stress Around the World
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9. Forecasts for Drought
9Map: NCAR Palmer Drought Severity Index 2011.

10. In sum
“Wet areas get wetter; dry areas get drier.” Don
Wuebbles, National Climate Assessment 2014
• Places facing water stress now will likely
face more intense water stress in the
future under conditions of climate change
• Water scarcity affects several other
aspects of the environment, economy,
and society
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11. FOOD SECURITY, WATER SECURITY
AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Inter-related Risks
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12. Food Security
• Agriculture systems strain to meet food needs
today
• Compound today’s challenge with a growing global
middle class that seeks a cereal-intensive meat-
rich diet, increasing demand by an additional 60%
• Agriculture competes with other uses for land—
urbanization, forestry, mining, bioenergy
• Agriculture depends on water
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13. “A hungry world is a dangerous world.
Without food, people have only three options:
They riot, they emigrate or they die. None of
these are acceptable options.”
~ Josette Sheeran of the U.N. World Food
Program
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14. Water Security and Competition
• Withdrawals of freshwater have increased
threefold over the last 50 years
• Water demand expected to rise by 40% by 2030
• Agriculture increasingly uses groundwater supplies
for irrigation in addition to surface water supplies
• Water also used for energy production, mineral
extraction and domestic uses
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15. Governance of Water
Who gets the water? Farmers? Fish? Cities?
Energy?
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16. THREE, NO FOUR, EXAMPLES
A Non-linearity to Water Security, Food Security, and Climate Change
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17. Russia: 2010
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18. Russia, Heatwave 2010
• Killed an estimated 15,000 people in Russia
• Created price spikes in the international cereal
markets
• Sharp increases in wheat prices after the
Russian 2010 heatwave was felt most keenly in
North Africa (largest wheat importing region in
the world)
• Price of bread was one subject of the initial
protests that became the 2011 Arab Spring
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19. Syria, 2006-2011
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20. Syria, Drought 2006-2011
• Prolonged drought in Syria (linked to climate
change) affected 1.3 million people
• Farmers in the rural areas couldn’t farm, so they
went to the cities to find work
• Drought was a contributing factor to a rural-urban
migration that heightened tensions in the nation’s
cities
• Conflict in those cities erupted, and a civil war
broke out, still in progress today
• Civil war has resulted in major migration and the
creation of the Syrian refugee crisis
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21. 21

22. East Africa Drought, 2011-2012
• Created a food crisis in Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti,
and Ethiopia; affected 13 million people
• Included war-ravaged Somalia
• An estimated 250,000 people died from the
resulting famine
• Some assistance efforts were impeded by Al-
Shabaab, related security risks continue today
• Created a humanitarian crisis, including major
migration flows and disease outbreaks
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23. Fourth Case, Unfolding now
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24. US Drought, 2012-???
• Unclear how long the drought will last
• Affects large swaths of productive agricultural
land
• Raises risk of wildfire
• California’s economy is among the top 10
economies of the world, driven in part by its
agricultural production
• How will this drought affect the world food
markets?
• What is the role of this drought on US food
security and world food security?
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25. In these cases…
• Private sector, governments, and NGO
organizations have/had a role to play in the
drought/heatwave scenarios and how they
played out
• Humanitarian efforts were/are required to
improve health and safety of the most
vulnerable
• The costs are substantial in economic and
human terms
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26. WRAPPING IT ALL UP
Almost done…
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27. Bottom Line
1. Water security affects multiple aspects of
development, security, and economy on the
global scale
2. Climate change effects on water and drought
are not linear processes, and they can often
have unintended cascading effects
3. Strategies for having more positive outcomes
for climate change will require multi-
stakeholder approaches
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28. As a way forward
• Understand the universality of climate-water
issues in our changing world
• Consider new approaches that include
1. Better understanding of risks in order to better
manage those risks,
2. Developing key partnerships among multiple and
diverse stakeholders
3. Avoiding “short-termism” in dealing with the climate-
water nexus, since conditions will manifest over long
time frames
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29. THANK YOU!
Laugustine@nas.edu
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