Key graphs and information from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

1. Agricultural prices are expected to
remain constrained
50
100
150
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Index 2002-04 = 100 FAO Food Price Index (real)
Prices spiked due to a
« perfect storm »
of market shocks reinforced
by policy responses
Real prices to be constrained
by strong supply growth,
ample stocks, and
weakening demand growth

2. Growth in demand for agricultural commodities
slows down – except for dairy
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27
Cereals Meat Fish Fresh dairy Sugar Vegetable oil
%
Due to per capita demand growth (food & other uses) Due to population growth
Average annual growth rate in demand

3. Most additional food demand will come from
Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27
Cereals Meat Fish Fresh dairy Sugar Vegetable oil
Rest of World MENA China India Sub-Saharan Africa OECD
Mt/decade
Growth in demand

4. Meat and fish: Convergence in consumption
patterns remains limited
Per capita food consumption, 2027
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SSA India China MENA OECD World
Fish Sheepmeat Poultry Pigmeat Beef and vealkg/ cap

5. Dairy: Strong growth in fresh dairy products
in India will continue
Per capita food consumption of milk solids, 2027
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
SSA India China MENA OECD World
Butter Whole milk powder Skim milk powder Cheese Fresh dairykg/cap

6. Aquaculture is on track to overtake capture
fisheries globally
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aquaculture Total capture Capture for human consumptionMt

7. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Maize Protein meals Other coarse grains Wheat Cereal bran Others
Mt 2015-17 2027
Maize and protein meals increase their share
of the global feed mix

8. Biofuel growth slows down
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
bln L World ethanol production World biodiesel production

9. Feedstocks for biofuels will account
for a stable share of demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
% Maize used for biofuels Sugarcane used for biofuels Vegetable oil used for biofuels

10. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Sub-Saharan
Africa
South and East
Asia
Middle East
and North
Africa
Americas Eastern Europe
and Central
Asia
Oceania Western
Europe
%
2015-17 2027 Growth, 2015-17 to 2027 (right axis)USD billion
Production will grow fastest
in developing regions
Agriculture and fisheries production (constant 2004-06 prices)

11. The share of agricultural production traded
is expected to remain constant
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
% 2015-17 2027

12. Trade: Specialisation between regions
is increasing over time
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
USD bln
Agricultural trade balances by region, in constant value, 1990-2027
Americas
Oceania
Eastern
Europe and
Central Asia
Western
Europe
Sub-Saharan
Africa
MENA
South and
East Asia

13. The Middle East and North Africa will remain
dependent on imports
Share of imports in domestic consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Wheat Rice Oilseeds Vegetable
oil
Sugar Beef Poultry Sheep Milk Fish
% 2015-17 2027

14. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
USD/t
Real maize price: Baseline and 90% interval
Grey range includes 90% of
simulated prices from the
stochastic analysis
Despite downward trend, risk of temporary price
increases remains