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Session 7b: Part II-Decarbonising freight- Alan McKinnon

  1. Decarbonising Freight Transport a brief overview Professor Alan McKinnon Kühne Logistics University Hamburg 8 March 2023 Foresight workshop : Rethinking Infrastructure for Sustainable, Resilient Development
  2. Developing a Strategy for Decarbonising Freight Transport Collaborate with others Consider possible options 10 C approach Corporate motivation Calculate emissions Commit to targets Cost evaluation Choose appropriate actions Calibrate the strategy Cut emissions Carbon offset
  3. Technology Infrastructure Market Behaviour Energy Regulation Shift freight to lower carbon modes Improve utilization of vehicle capacity Increase energy efficiency Reduce carbon content of energy used external factors affecting logistics decarbonisation company decarbonisation levers TIMBER framework and Freight Decarbonisation Levers Impact of External Factors on the Decarbonisation of Logistics Operations: An Assessment of this Impact in Thirteen Countries including Indonesia (2014 assessment)
  4. Shifting Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes Average carbon intensity of freight transport modes: gCO2 / tonne-km • globally rail share of freight tonne-kms declining • difficult to reverse past modal trends • long term logistical ‘lock-in’ to trucking • few countries managed to increase rail freight share Decline in fossil fuel traffic – hard to replace with other commodities Carbon intensity of trucking falling faster than for rail freight – narrowing the gap rapid growth in rail freight tonnage: raising rail share to 30% by 2030? 4 16 25 51 78 210 612 1128 2198 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 BULK CARRIER VESSEL CONTAINER SHIP FREIGHT TRAIN ROLL-ON ROLL-OFF FERRY ARTICULATED TRUCK RIGID TRUCK VAN AIRFREIGHT LONG-HAUL AIRFREIGHT SHORT-HAUL rail emits 3.3 times less CO2 per tonne-km source: DBEIS / DEFRA 2020 Indonesia: 3-way modal split – road sea rail public policy recommendations take holistic view of freight / logistics market target interventions by sector, commodity and corridor coordination of multiple policy instruments learn from long modal shift policy experience elsewhere
  5. Optimising Capacity Utilisation of Freight Vehicles over-loading of freight vehicles also carries heavy carbon penalty 11 major reasons for under- utilisation of freight vehicles McKinnon (2021) Indonesia: annual emissions of CO2 per truck per annum inflated by between 22 and 54 tons, depending on vehicle type and size, for every 10% increase in overloading. Source: Wahyudi et al (2013) large potential CO2 savings low or negative carbon mitigation costs short-medium term implementation need system-wide CO2 analysis under-loading empty
  6. Optimising Capacity Uutilisation of Freight Vehicles: enablers and public policy interventions public policy interventions digitalisation supply chain collaboration role for multinational companies high capacity transport articulated vehicles – ‘drop and hook’ enforcement of over-loading regulations road user charging advisory schemes support for green freight programmes 54,000 trucks 430 warehouses infrastructural investment / relaxation of truck size and weight limits
  7. changes to business practice: e.g. deceleration fuel economy standards: applied to trucks and ships ship energy efficiency ratings EEDI for new vessels EEXI for existing vessels vehicle operation: IT , training, monitoring eco-driver training telematic monitoring platooning automation fuel savings from slow steaming 4. Increasing the Energy Efficiency of Freight Transport Operations uptake of new technologies -15% -30% 57 48 40 penalties per vehicle sold for non- compliance per gCO2 / tkm 2025-2029 €4250 post 2030 €6800 2019 2025 2030 EU fuel / CO2 standards for new trucks enhanced vehicle maintenance longer term short-medium term trucking retrofitting fuel saving devices shipping 75% of new trucks sold in 2021 in countries with fuel economy standards (IEA, 2022) McKinnon (2016) Freight Transport Deceleration
  8. Increasing the Energy Efficiency of Freight Vehicles wide international variations in carbon intensity of trucking and rate at which it is declining inhibiting factors road freight fuel subsidies poor road infrastructure old, under-maintained vehicles low levels of retrofitting inferior tyres lack of skill / training in fuel- efficient driving vehicle overloading public policy interventions regulatory Fuel economy standards for new and imported trucks financial Phase-out fossil fuel subsidies Vehicle scrappage scheme Subsidies for retrofitting and purchase of low carbon trucks infrastructural Improving road maintenance Relieving congestion advisory Support for green freight programmes, training in eco- driving etc Source: ITF Transport Outlook 2019
  9. Cutting the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy short haul road long haul road rail shipping airfreight battery battery catenary e-methanol biofuel hydrogen hydrogen battery green ammonia e-kerosene e-highway hydrogen hydrogen hydrogen biogas battery battery HVO wind Several low-carbon energy options for each freight mode: uncertainty and disagreement about future energy mix heavily dependent on direct or indirect electrification of the freight transport system coordinating the development of transport and energy infrastructures with the manufacture of new low carbon vehicles and operators’ fleet replacement cycles.
  10. Critical Role of Electrification in Freight Transport Decarbonisation secure adequate and reliable supply of battery materials • mining and processing capacity • Intensifying global competition • geopolitics intensify use of scarce battery materials in the road fleet metric: CO2 savings / kg of battery material / day decarbonisation of electricity supply China: 79% of EV battery production (80% of cobalt processing) Democratic Republic of Congo: 56% of battery-grade cobalt prioritise battery use in commercial vehicles that are used much more intensively than private cars develop networks of fast chargers for electric trucks supplement static with dynamic charging of trucks using ERS catenary micro-generation • downscaling battery size and weight • reducing required static charging capacity prioritise truck decarbonisation with catenary over development of surface- based ERS for all vehicle types 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2018 2040 2040 -10% -32% Stated Policies Sustainable Development scenario gCO2 / kWh Carbon intensity of electricity generation global average Source: International Energy Agency (2019)
  11. Center for Sustainable Logistics and Supply Chains Kühne Logistics University – the KLU Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und Unternehmensführung Grosser Grasbrook 17 20457 Hamburg tel.: +49 40 328707-271 fax: +49 40 328707-109 e-mail: website: Professor Alan McKinnon @alancmckinnon online course