Presentation for Retired Veterinarians' Society, Melbourne - 5 October, 2016. Assembles slides from ILRI, CGIAR and Falvey's book 'Beliefs that Bias Food & Agriculture'. Main point is that multiple objectives confuses real food security for food-deficit nations; this includes unthought beliefs in sustainability. Three simple points are concluded: 1) sustained research is essential (this is what sustainability can only mean in practical terms); 2) food (grain) reserves are an essential component of real food security despite their cost and contrary to free trade rhetoric; 3) national food security plans are essential for food-deficit nations, not for major food exporters and such plans should be above other measures if the stability required for governance is to be maintained.
15. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed
Food policy developments in 2015-16
Sustainable
Development Goals
Global goals that call for
local action
COP21
Commitments to
slow GHG
emissions
WTO ministerial
meeting
Pledged to
eliminate
distortionary trade
policiesLow oil & food prices
Oil: Lowest in 11 years
Food: Falling for 4th
year
Refugee crisis
Over 8 million
Syrians food
insecure +
Slow economic growth
Driven by slowdown in
emerging economies
2015Climate change
El Niño: Ethiopia’s
worst drought in 30
years
Source: Fan 2016
16. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed
Historical Modes of food production
12/ 02/ 13 4:33 PMWorld_population_growth_(lin- log_scale).png 1,000×600 pixels
!!!!!!!!!!!!hunting/gathering/herding/agriculture agriculture more sophisticated today alternatives?12/02/13 5:00 PMFile:Population curve.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
F i le : P o p u la t i o n c u r v e .s v g
F r o m W i k i p e d i a , t h e f r e e e n c y c l o p e d i a
P o p u l a t i o n _ c u r v e .s v g !( S V G f i l e , n o m i n a l l y 5 5 0 " 3 2 5 p i x e l s , f i l e s i z e : 1 0 K B )
T h i s i m a g e r e n d e r e d a s P N G i n o t h e r s i z e s : 2 0 0 p x , 5 0 0 p x , 1 0 0 0 p x , 2 0 0 0 p x .
T h i s i s a f i l e f r o m t h e W i k i m e d i a C o m m o n s . I n f o r m a t i o n f r o m i t s d e s c r ip t io n p a g e t h e r e
i s s h o w n b e l o w .
C o m m o n s i s a f r e e l y l i c e n s e d m e d i a f i l e r e p o s i t o r y . Y o u c a n h e l p .
D e s c r ip t io n W o r l d h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n ( e s t .) 1 0 , 0 0 0 B C – 2 0 0 0 A D .
D a t e
S o u r c e o r i g i n a l l y u p l o a d e d t o e n .w i k i p e d i a a s P o p u l a t i o n c u r v e . s v g . T h e d a t a i s f r o m t h e " l o w e r "
e s t i m a t e s a t c e n s u s .g o v ( h t t p : / / w w w . c e n s u s .g o v / i p c / w w w / w o r l d h i s .h t m l ) .
A u t h o r E l T
T h i s w o r k h a s b e e n r e l e a s e d i n t o t h e p u b lic d o m a i n b y i t s a u t h o r , E l T a t t h e E n g l i s h
W i k ip e d i a p r o j e c t . T h i s a p p l i e s w o r l d w i d e .
I n c a s e t h i s i s n o t l e g a l l y p o s s i b l e :
E l T g r a n t s a n y o n e t h e r i g h t t o u s e t h i s w o r k f o r a n y p u r p o s e , w i t h o u t a n y c o n d i t i o n s , u n l e s s
s u c h c o n d i t i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d b y l a w .
D a t a
18. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed
Technology is critical for a global food
system in sustainable development
New food
system
Efficient
Inclusive
Climate-smart
Sustainable
Nutrition- and health-
driven
Business-friendly
Over half of SDGs relate to
food security and nutrition
Source: Fan 2016
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Wheat Rust: 117 million hectares protected; >60 million households food secure
Asia 1965-85: income up 190%; food security for 1.8 billion
Improved Maize: now 75% of land under cereal cultivation
Cassava Mosaic Virus & Mealybug: yields up 40%; 29 million fed
Re-Greening the Sahel: > 5 million hectares transformed; 3 million additional people fed
Argentina Pampas: 22 million hectares sustainable; world leader in soybean production
Indo-Gangetic Plain: 1.8 million hectares; income gains $340 per household
Bangladesh: 67% reduction in well costs; doubled rice production; 22 million more fed
China: Yield increases of 15-31%; 63% of rice is hybrids; 60 million more fed
Tilapia Philippines: increased 186%; benefitted 19-23 million consumers
Land-tenure reform in China 1978-84: grain up 34%; incomes by 137%
CGIAR: Examples of Impact
23. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed
Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed
by 2050
From 2bn−3bn
tonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bn
tonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m
tonnes meat each year
More Livestock Products Demand
24. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed
Connecting the Milk Grid
Smallholder dairy in India
1970–1996
• Challenge:
• Innovation:
• Impact:
Author: Kenda Cunningham
Dairy demand outpacing supply; smallholders unable to
access national dairy markets
Creation of a national milk grid and organization of dairy
cooperatives to improve production and marketing
India becomes a top global dairy producer; incomes double
for 9 million direct beneficiaries, 73% of whom are
landless farmers
NDDB
25. www.ifpri.org/millionsfed
Conquering the Cattle
Plague
The global effort to eradicate
rinderpest
1950–2001
• Challenge:
• Innovation:
• Impact:
Authors: Peter Roeder and Karl Rich
Highly contagious livestock disease killing 95% of the animals it
infects as it spreads across Asia and Africa
Coordinated global effort to develop improved vaccine,
surveillance systems, and protect livestock-based livelihoods
Only time an infectious disease has been eradicated since
smallpox; 40 million poor livestock keepers benefitted
PeterRoeder
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NOVEL VACCINE PRODUCTION
Infection Immune response to
infection
Immune to re-infection
Candidate vaccine antigens
(antigen discovery)
Proof-of-concept vaccine trials
(antigen delivery)
Antibodies and
immune T-cells
Infection or vaccine trials
Both approaches
28. www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfed
New tools allow us to look in new places for sources
of variation – including wildlife
Comparative gene network
and sequence analysis allows
to ask new kinds of questions
about genomes – eg “what is
different about this (group of)
species compared to all other
mammals”
“traditional” linkage mapping requires crosses – so initial discovery is
limited to variants within a species
Cow NDama KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSPLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK
Cow Boran KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK
Human KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCEREHSTVPWFVKQCIEAVEK
Pig KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCERENSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK
Chicken KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHLVCEHENSTVPQFVRQCIKAVER
Salmon KFISRRPSMKTLQEKGIIKDRVFGCHLLALCEREGTTVPKFVRQCVEAVEK
The reason is that, if we fail, the consequences will affect every person on the planet.
Modern wars are often driven by scarcities of food, land and water.
Dafour, Rwanda, Eritrea, the Balkans were all destabilized, at root, by squabbles over these resources. Going further back, the French and Russian civil wars both grew out of bread crises. We know that hunger breeds war.
The UK Ministry of Defence – which developed this threat map – America’s CIA, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Oslo Peace Research Institute all identify food scarcity as a trigger for revolution, government collapse and wars, possibly even nuclear.
Riots correlate to rice/cereal price peaks
Posititve: biological understanding assists food and agriculture, and health for greater numbers
FAO yearbook fishery and aquaculture 2012: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3740t.pdf
Farmed food fish total value in 2012: $137 billion
FAOSTAT accessed 20 October 2015 http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/rankings/commodities_by_regions/E
Values in 2013:
Cow milk: $198 billion (international $)
Rice: $190 billion
Indigenous pig meat: $172 billion
Indigenous cattle meat: $171 billion
Indigenous chicken meat: $137 billion
Figures from: Alexandratos N and Bruinsma J (2012) World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. The 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Agriculture Development Economics Division, FAO, Rome.
All types of food are needed – diversity of food
Specifically, the world will need:
1 billion tonnes more cereals to 2050
1 billion tonnes dairy products each year
460 million tonnes meat each year
The Animal Bioscience Program addresses genetics, genomics, epidemiology and diagnostics of livestock species (cattle, pigs, camel, sheep, poultry and goats), some specific diseases (Trypanosomiasis, East Coast Fever, African swine fever, Peste des Petits Ruminant) and some categories of disease particularly Zoonotic diseases and emerging infectious diseases. The bulk of the research is done in Africa and has the potential to impact the rest of the world, supporting the development of strategies for control and eradication of transboundary diseases, enhancing animal productivity and improving food and nutritional security.
‘old fashioned’ genome mapping identified variants – slow and costly. But nowhere to go with it
New big data approaches allow us to look in new ways.
And now we have genome editing to validate and deliver. TIME FOR A NEW ROUND OF FUNCTIONAL GENOMICS TO UNDERSTAND ADAPTATION
These views developed in this book – highlighting some BIASES