CALP 6 TOC

1. Theories of Change
CALP webinar
July 2016

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• “Whosoever wishes to know about the world must learn about
it in its particular details
Knowledge is not intelligence.
In searching for the truth be ready for the unexpected.
Change alone is unchanging.
The same road goes both up and down.
The beginning of a circle is also its end.
Not I, but the world says it: all is one.
And yet everything comes in season.”
• Heraclitos of Ephesus, 500 B.C

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A ToC is not a diagram

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However creative

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Ways people describe theory of change
from Comic Relief Study
• Programme theory/ logic/ approach
• A road map for change
• A causal pathway/ chain/ model/ map
• Pathways mapping
• Intervention theory/ framework/ logic
• A process of open enquiry and dialogue
• A clear and testable hypothesis
• A logic model
• A blueprint for evaluation
• Back to basics
• A direction of travel
• A sense of direction

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Approaches to theory of change
• Approach 1: Those that focus on how projects or programmes
expect to bring change
OR
• Approach 2: Those that explore how change happens more
broadly and then what that means for programme
interventions – including advocacy and influencing!
Theory of Change is simply an on-going process of reflection
to explore change and how it happens – and what that means
for the part we play in a particular context, advocacy
campaign or programme

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THEORY OF CHANGE
Political literacyTechnical tool
ToC is seen as
providing
practitioners with an
opportunity to
engage more
honestly with the
complexity of
change processes.
ToC is seen as
extending the
assumptions/risks
column
of a logical
framework.
Participatory process
Evolving, iterative
A questioning attitudeA questioning attitude

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Change: Slavery Abolished in the UK
1807
British Parliament
Act to abolish the
slave trade from
its colonies
1833-38
Slavery Act in
Parliament leads
to emancipation of
slaves in British
Empire
1700
Slavery is broadly
accepted and
validated and is key
to the production
model.
Slave Rebellions
in the Americas
Independence of
Haiti
Abolitionist laws in
other European
countries
Quakers &
Anglican church
internal pressure
and parliamentary
alliances
Compensation
measures for
"owners"
Research,
evidence and
awareness
raising
Reform of
Parliament in
England

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Oxfam’s emerging Theory of Change

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Oxfam’s Gender Justice Theory of
Change
Community
Household
National
Global
Individual Change
Formal
Systemic Change
Informal
Women’ s access
to resources
Formal institutions,
laws, practicesCultural norms,
values, practices
Women’ s and men’ s
consciousness

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Elements of a Theory of Change for Advocacy
and Influencing
lasting change
=
convinced decision makers
+
credible arguments
+
broad and intense support
+
an infrastructure that sustains change
+
mass attitudes and beliefs that can sustain
change (and sometimes are the change)

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The iterative advocacy planning process
External context & How Change Happens
Defined Problem
Proposed Solution/Overall Theory of Change
SMART Objectives/Outcomes
Power analysis
Strategies & Tactics
Theory of Change
Plan of actions with Timeline
Resources required
MEL Plan & Risk
Alliances
Who to collaborate with?
Targets
Who to influence?
Credible research
Policy analysis and
development
Lobbying
Policy Dialogue
Citizens voice
Media
Alliances
Popular mobilisation

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When analysing the external context it is
important to:
• Grapple with complexity
• Deepen our understanding of power, power
relationships, institutions
• Understand the interaction between political and
economic processes and the trends in distribution of
power and wealth – (see political economy analysis)
• Work out your theory or theories of change in order to
decide HOW to go about your programmes and WHO to
work with

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ToC – A cycle of planning and critical reflection
Power
Analysis

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Develop your unique change pathway – a
way to do it
Backward mapping – outcomes to strategies/activities
1. Clarify your goal – ultimate impact that you want to influence/ achieve (results
statement)
2. Identify long term changes that will support this goal and that you can
influence (indirectly) (long-term outcomes)
3. Work backwards: ask yourselves, in order for this to happen what needs to
change (who would be doing what differently)? (medium-term outcomes)
4. Again: ask “in order for these changes to take place, what has to be different
(who would be doing what differently – what would have to be in place?) (short-
term outcomes) – remember – power mapping
5. Once you have agreed and written up long, medium and short term outcomes,
discuss and agree:
o Who you should be engaging with?
o What you should be doing – yourself and with others?
(strategies/activities)
Link it all to your power analysis

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Change Pathway
(or Outcome Map/Impact Chain)
Overall
Change
Long-term
outcome
Long-term
outcome
Strategies
Medium-term
outcome
Medium-term
outcome
Medium-term
outcome
Medium-term
outcome
Short-term
outcome
Short-term
outcome
Short-term
outcome
Short-term
outcome
Short-term
outcome
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Strategies
Intermediate Outcomes

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5 key questions in the hypothesis of
prospective change
1. What is the long-term change we want to see?
2. Which is the route? In this context and with these
stakeholders and opportunities, what are the most
important short and mid-term outcomes in policies,
practices, ideas and beliefs to reach the long-term
change and with whom?
3. What are the cause-effect relationships between the
different short and medium-term outcomes?
4. Will the strategies deliver the outcomes/change?
5. Are your strategies and outcomes realistic? Are your
assumptions tested?
6. assumptions?

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Testing the TOC - What is an
assumption?
• Assumption = something that is accepted as true or certain to
happen but there is no proof (yet)
• Good practice in Theories of Change says “assumptions
must be made explicit, categorised and linked to specific
aspects of the change pathway”
Some common assumptions we make in our work?

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Testing the TOC - What is an
assumption?
• Assumption = something that is accepted as true or certain to happen but there
is no proof (yet)
• Good practice in Theories of Change says “assumptions must be made
explicit, categorised and linked to specific aspects of the change
pathway”
Some common assumptions we make in our work?
• People are not aware of their rights and because of this they don’t act.
• If women participate in politics, they will advance women’s rights.
• If we achieve a pro-poor policy change, positive change for women and
marginalized groups will come.
• If we strengthen civil society organizations, they will influence the
government

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Testing the logic and your
assumptions
For each of the links that you make, ask yourselves the following
sort of questions:
• Why did you think that x would lead to y?
• What might hinder this from happening? (e.g. costs,
opposing views, lack of trust/ capacity/technology, people
losing assets etc.)
• Are there any missing links?
• Who else might need to be involved?
• Looking at the pathway again, are there better ways of
getting to your goal?
• Are there things you are not sure or confident about?
• What do your other stakeholders think?

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If………… Then………

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What do they look like?
• No “official” format – depends on context in which you are developing
one and what type of intervention
For instance
• Policy change focus only
• Focused on attitude and behaviour change as well as political or policy
change at national level
• Part of a “one programme” approach – delivery programme at
community level linked to partners linked to national policy change or
the creation of an enabling environment etc.

26. Examples of theories of change

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Key Strategies: Research, strengthening
women’s capacity in leadership, effective use
of media, public campaigning, working with
women’s movements and champions to
address barriers towards women’s
leadership, coalition building and networking,
policy influencing and advocacy
WOMEN’S RIGHTS THEORY OF CHANGE

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ToC – A cycle of planning and critical reflection
Power
Analysis

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What to do in complex or uncertain
situations ?
• Informed best guess
• Choosing a number of entry points
• Close monitoring
• Willingness to stop or change approach
• Regular moments to reflect and adjust

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TOC and MEAL - Key questions
In Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) there are three critical
questions:
• Are we doing what we said we would do?
• (Internal Validity)
• Are we making a difference?
• (Evaluation)
• Are these the right things to do?
• (Strategic relevance)

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TOC and MEAL plans
Consider what information you need to collect to answer the
following key questions:
• What has changed (positive/ negative/intended or not)?
• For whom?
• How significant is this?
• How did the changes come about? (What factors
contributed to them)
• What if anything did our organisation/programme
contribute?
• What would we do differently next time?
• What information do you need to effectively manage and
evaluate change?

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HOW CAN WE USE THEORIES OF CHANGE?
• Programme/Campaign planning
• To bridge the gap between strategic and operational planning
• To build a joint vision with partners of what we want to achieve and how
we are going to get there
• To show the cause and effect relationships between strategies,
outcomes and long-tern goals with underlying assumptions
• Communication
• To summarise the key elements of a programme for new staff, partners
and donors
• Monitoring and evaluation
• To identify critical evaluation questions and indicators
• Tracking progress to achieving our long-term goals

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Limitations - challenges
• In the construction we tend to think about projects and strategies
(internal) not changes in the society and the power relations
(external)
• Its a snapshot, and personal/collective interpretation
• Can be over optimistic and too simplistic
• Or they generate anxiety due to complexity and uncertainty
• Can be biased by our preferences/ideologies and worldviews
• They do not identify possible changes in the environment that will
challenge the rationale or assumptions made
• Others????

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Useful links
• https://sumus.oxfam.org/influencing-hub/wiki/strategy-design
• https://sumus.oxfam.org/camsa-common-approach-mel-and-strategic-
accountability/wiki/22-program-planning-and-design
• http://www.theoryofchange.nl/sites/default/files/resource/hivos_toc_guideline
s_final_nov_2015.pdf
• http://www.theoryofchange.nl/
• http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/where-have-we-got-to-on-theories-of-change-
passing-fad-or-paradigm-shift/
• http://www.theoryofchange.org/2014/03/28/corelab/
• http://www.theoryofchange.org/library/presentations/

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Useful links
• Http://www.aecf.org/resources/a-guide-to-measuring-advocacy-and-policy/
• http://www.researchtoaction.org/2011/05/theory-of-change-useful-resources/

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41. Questions ANDNEXT
STEPS