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China
GDP Growth ,[object Object]
Chinese Modern Economic History ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Reform and Opening” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Consequences of partial reform ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China’s Financial Challenges
Ageing in China (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ageing in China (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
[object Object],[object Object]
Policy Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rapid credit and liquidity growth has boosted real investment and led concerns of a bubble. Monetary policy tightening  - interest rates increased by 100 bps and reserve requirements by 450bps
Fear of “Panda Bears” is financial system with poor price signals and politically directed lending has misallocated credit. Opaque banking system, off balance sheet exposures – especially local authority debt
China – A Property Bubble?
Implications for China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India
Resilient to the crisis
Demographics promising
Very different growth paths. India has lower savings and investment, poor infrastructure, labour laws and restrictions on FDI. Not good for manufacturing so pursued services
The major problems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
The next stage ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Can India grow as fast as China? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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