Industry Analysts Caroline Gabriel and Joe Madden present their latest Small Cell Forecasts, explain their underlying methodology and assumptions in turn followed by a challenging Q&A session. Insightful and free from hype. Strongly recommended.

1. ThinkSmallCell
Webinar
Series
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-­‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts

2. Agenda
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
• IntroducHon,
David
Chambers,
ThinkSmallCell
• Analyst
Forecasts
and
AssumpHons
• Caroline
Gabriel,
Maravedis-­‐Rethink
• Joe
Madden,
Mobile
Experts
• QuesHon
and
Answer
Session
• Conclusion

3. The
different
categories
of
small
cells
Small
Cells
OR
Femtocells
Residen,al
Enterprise
Small
Cells
Urban
Rural
3

4. Planned
vs
Unplanned
3G
Licensed
Spectrum
Planned
(locaHon
pre-­‐
determined
prior
to
site
build)
Unplanned
(locaHon
unknown
unHl
operaHonal)
4G/LTE
Licensed
Spectrum
3G
Urban
LTE
Urban
3G
Rural
Small
cells
Enterprise
Small
Cells
ResidenHal
Small
Cells
ResidenHal
Small
Cells
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
LTE
Rural
Small
cells
Enterprise
Small
Cells
Unlicensed
Spectrum
Enterprise
Wi-­‐Fi
ResidenHal
Wi-­‐Fi
4

5. Issues
with
small
cell
forecasts?
• Contrast
between
residenHal
femto
vs
planned
Small
Cells
– Tens
of
millions
of
residenHal
femtocells
vs
few
million
Small
Cells
• It’s
always
“next
year”?
– How
confident
can
we
be
that
Small
Cell
uptake
isn’t
a
false
dawn?
• Volume
vs
revenue?
– Which
sector
of
Small
Cells
has
most
revenue
associated
with
it
• What
impact
will
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
have?
• How
do
Small
Cell
forecasts
differ
between
radio
technologies?
– 3G
UMTS,
3G
CDMA,
4G/LTE,
TD-­‐LTE,
MulH-­‐Mode
3G/LTE/Wi-­‐Fi
5

6. Analyst
Viewpoint
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-­‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts

7. January
Public access small cells forecast
2014
Units
Shipped
annually
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2012
2013
2014
Outdoor
www.maravedis-­‐bwa.com
2015
2016
2017
2018
Indoor
Copyright
©
Maravedis
Inc
2014.

8. January
Trends and drivers
2014
8,000,000
www.maravedis-­‐bwa.com
7,000,000
6,000,000
No
of
sites
Changing
focus:
Indoor
Wi-­‐Fi
integraHon
Managed
services
Enterprise
Added
value
services
•
MulHmode
and
new
ecosystem
are
criHcal
•
SHll
obstacles
but
they
are
changing
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2014
Cellular
only
2015
Dual-­‐mode
cellular
2016
WiFi/cellular
2017
2018
WiFi
only
Copyright
©
Maravedis
Inc
2014.

9. Analyst
Viewpoint
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-­‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts

10.
Mobile
Experts
LLC
§ Founded
in
2002
§ 6
Analysts
+
office
staff
§ Analysts
are
20-­‐year
experts
in
their
respective
topics
§ Focused
exclusively
on
mobile
radio
equipment

11. Annual
Small
Cell
Forecast
§ Residential
Femtocells—not
a
compelling
ROI
for
operators
§ Enterprise
Small
Cells
will
grow
with
new
business
models
§ Big
potential
but
slow
growth
due
to
a
new
business
model
§ Carrier-­‐deployed
Small
Cells
will
grow
along
with
data
demand

12. Methodology
§ Top-­‐down
inputs:
§ 32
mobile
operators
§ Deployment
history
and
plans
§ Bottom-­‐up
inputs:
§ 18
semiconductor
suppliers
§ Quarterly
shipment
updates
§ Tracking
by
band,
by
power
level
§ Cost
Modeling:
§ We
compare
TCO
models
with
operators
on
$/bit
to
understand
their
deployment
priorities

13. Audience
Poll
-­‐
QuesHon
How
closely
do
these
analyst
forecast
match
your
own
predicHons?
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Analysts
are
too
opHmisHc/too
high
About
right
Analysts
are
too
pessimisHc
I
have
absolutely
no
idea
Too
many
uncertainHes
to
predict
with
any
confidence
13

14. Audience
Poll
-­‐
Response
14

15. Q&A
Session
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-­‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts

16. Closing
Comments
Small
Cell
Analyst
Forecast
Spotlight
David
Chambers
Founder
and
Senior
Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline
Gabriel
Head
of
Research
Maravedis-­‐Rethink
Joe
Madden
Founder
and
Principal
Analyst
Mobile
Experts

17. More
informaHon
• More
resources/informaHon
at
ThinkSmallCell.com
– Sign
up
for
our
free
monthly
newsleeer
– www.thinksmallcell.com/webinars
• Small
Cell
Forum
documents
– scf.io
• Contact
today’s
analysts
– ThinkSmallCell:
– Mobile
Experts:
– Maravedis-­‐Rethink:
www.thinksmallcell.com
www.mobile-­‐experts.net
www.maravedis-­‐rethink.com
17

18. Our
Next
Webinar
Small
Cells:
Going
to
Volume
• Speakers
include
– Nick
Johnson,
Founder
and
CTO,
ip.access
– Simon
Brown,
CEO,
ip.access
• Thursday
13th
February
2014
– 8am
PST/11am
EST/4pm
GMT/5pm
CET
• heps://aeendee.gotowebinar.com/register/
1481253624939123458