Презентація старшого радника World Nuclear Association Філіпа Косте в рамках Міжнародної конференції з нагоди 10-річчя АУЯФ "Український ядерний форум 2019: ядерна енергетика - стан та тенденції розвитку"

1. World Nuclear Association
Reports and contribution to the Fuel Cycle
Philippe Costes
Senior Advisor, World Nuclear Association
Ukrainian Nuclear
Forum 2019

2. 2
The World Nuclear Association
Represents the global nuclear industry
185
Members

3. 3
Nuclear Industry Cooperation
We provide an invaluable forum and commercial meeting place for
our members, who are leaders and specialists in all aspects of the
worldwide nuclear industry.
Nuclear Information
We pride ourselves on providing trustworthy, thoroughly-researched
information on nuclear power via our website, which serves as the
world’s most comprehensive nuclear information source, via World
Nuclear News, and through reports and publications.
Nuclear Communication
With a goal to increase global support for nuclear energy among
key stakeholders and decision makers, we identify important energy
debates and strategically represent nuclear energy’s interests.
Nuclear Training
Through the World Nuclear University programmes, we work with
IAEA, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and WANO to enhance
nuclear education and build nuclear leadership to secure the future
of the industry.
The World Nuclear Association
What do we do?

4. 4
We develop industry positions on the issues that matter through our
Members Groups
We work with industry

5. 5
We inform on nuclear energy
• Free daily nuclear news service
• 185+ papers in our online Information Library
• We produce key publications including:
- The Nuclear Fuel Report
- World Nuclear Supply Chain report
- Industry reports
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/

6. 6
• World Nuclear Association Symposium
every September in London
We hold global events
Delegates
600
39
International
speakers
Countries
represented
35
• World Nuclear Fuel Cycle conference jointly
organised with NEI in April, rotating in
Europe, Asia and USA
• World Nuclear Association Spotlight
conferences in countries developing
nuclear energy – Indonesia, Poland, Brazil,

7. 7
Founding supporters: IAEA, WANO, OECD-NEA and World Nuclear Association
We train the leaders of tomorrow
• Summer Institute
• Short courses
• School on Radiation Technologies
• Nuclear Olympiad
• Executive Enhancement Course
• Extended Leadership Development Workshop
http://www.world-nuclear-university.org/imis20/wnu/

8. 8
We represent the nuclear industry’s interests
where the energy debate is taking place and
deliver targeted information to key influencers
and key international forums
Influencing the energy debate
Decision-makers
Nuclear organisations
Nuclear industry
International media

9. 9
New reports, database and publication
http://www.world-nuclear.org/

10. 10
Harmony: a goal for the nuclear community
At least 1000
gigawatt new
nuclear capacity
by 2050
To meet the growing
demand for a clean and
reliable low-carbon mix.
25% of electricity
supply in 2050
www.world-nuclear.org/harmony

11. 11
Key report and contribution to Fuel Cycle
The Nuclear Fuel Report

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Fuel Report Working Group:
Co-chairs and chairs of the sub-groups
Joint chairs
Fredrik Leijonhufvud Vattenfall
Fletcher Newton TENAM
Chairs of sub-groups
Pierre Beaudoin AREVA
Emmanuel Bouyge EDF
Nikko Collida ConverDyn
Frank Hahne Fluor-BWXT Portsmouth
Rolf Kwasny Consultant
Francisco Tarin ENUSA

13. 13
Project methodology and assumptions
Three demand scenarios:
• Reference case
• Lower case
• Upper case
Generic assumptions underlie each scenario:
• Nuclear economics
• Impact on climate change debate
• Electricity market structure
• Public Acceptance

14. 14
World nuclear generating capacity scenarios*, GWe
(2017 Fuel Report)
* 2017 capacity excludes temporarily closed Japanese reactors.
(GWe)
326 GWe
482 GWe
625 GWe

15. Reference case capacity 2017/2035, GWe
(2017 Fuel Report)

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World uranium requirements to 2035, tU
(tU)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Lower (-0.6%) Reference (2.0%) Upper (3.4%)
58,000 tU
94,000 tU
122,000 tU

17. 17
Uranium requirements vs supply Reference
Scenario
• The amount of production
expected from mines under
development, planned mines
and prospective mines has
fallen away almost completely
since 2015.
• In the Reference Scenario, the
gap between projected
demand and supply that opens
up after 2023 would need to be
filled by production from
‘reserve projects’.
• Continued inventory
accumulation is to be expected
up to 2022 some of which will
be available to the market
(tU)

18. 18
Secondary supplies outlook (2017 Fuel Report)
 Global commercial inventories 2016 – 250,000 tU :
• Utility inventories – 146,000 tU
• Uranium producer inventories
• Other fuel cycle participants’ inventories
 Government inventories (US DOE ̴100,000 tUeq)
 Fuel banks (US, France, UK, Russia, Kazakhstan)
 Highly enriched uranium (US, Russia)
 Recycling of materials from reprocessing
 Re-enrichment of depleted uranium (1,218,000 tU)

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Secondary supplies scenarios to 2035
(2017 Fuel Report)
• US DOE excess inventory
continues to be disposed of
at approx.2ktU/year
• Excess enrichment capacity
used for underfeeding leading
to as much as 7ktU/year
• ERU and MOX contribute
approx. 2ktUeq/year rising
over time
• Additional secondary supplies
are assumed from Russia of
1-3ktU / year from mid-2020s
(tU)

20. 20
Uranium requirements vs supply
Reference Scenario (2017 Fuel Report)
• The amount of production
expected from mines under
development, planned mines
and prospective mines has
fallen away almost completely
since 2015.
• In the Reference Scenario, the
gap between projected
demand and supply that opens
up after 2023 would need to be
filled by production from
‘reserve projects’.
• Continued inventory
accumulation is to be expected
up to 2022 some of which will
be available to the market
(tU)

21. 21
Uranium requirements vs supply
Upper and Lower Scenarios (2017 Fuel Report)
(tU) (tU)
Upper Case Lower Case

22. 22
Conversion market outlook (2017 Fuel Report)
Capacity should be sufficient
to meet Reference Scenario
demand until 2030
Key Assumptions
• Russia and China are
able to meet domestic
conversion requirements
• Capacity utilisation is
readily increased
tU

23. 23
Enrichment market outlook (2017 Fuel Report)
• Enrichment capacity is
more than sufficient in the
medium term.
• China is assumed to build
capacity to meet domestic
requirements.
• American Centrifuge Plant,
GLE and Eagle Rock are
not included.
• Allowance made for
obsolescent centrifuges.
• Incremental centrifuge
capacity is relatively easy
to add.
ThousandSWU

24. 24
Fuel fabrication market outlook (2017 Fuel Report)
LWR fabrication demand, tHM
• Global fabrication
capacity is sufficient to
meet demand but the
market is highly
segmented and
bottlenecks for
particular fuel designs
could occur.

25. 25
Fuel Report results and the Harmony goal
GWe
TWh
2014 2050
0 0
200
400
600
800
25% of
generation
11% of
generation 396
GWe
1250
GWe
10000
TWh
Additions
1000
GWe
8000
TWh
Retirements
150
GWe
2411
TWh
1200
1000
11000
7000
5000
3000
9000
1000
Source: World Nuclear Association. Growth required for nuclear energy to
supply 25% of electricity in 2050 under demand forecast of two-degree
scenario (see IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015.
Assumption: 91% capacity factor)

26. 26
- Since COP 24, Nuclear power is considered as needed in order to achieve
successfully an affordable energy decarbonisation by 2050
- Reactor technologies? Off the shelf existing technologies – mainly large scale
reactors -, providing the Industry masters time and budget.
- Front-end fuel cycle?
- Next decade will need exploration and mining developments for
reference scenario and even more for Harmony goal.
- Time to Market is key
- … Look for the 2019 Nuclear Fuel Report !
Conclusions

27. Thank You - дякую вам