Professor Alejandro Diaz-Bautista Effects of the Economic Crisis in Latin Ame...
Professor Alejandro Diaz-Bautista Presentation UCSD October 2014.
1. The Calibaja Cross-Border BBuussiinneessss CCoommmmuunniittyy
AAlleejjaannddrroo DDííaazz--BBaauuttiissttaa,, PPhh..DD..
Professor of International Economics at Colef
and
Distinguished Researcher
National Council of Science and Technology
adiazbau@gmail.com
Presentation for the International Diaspora Engagement Alliance –
Diaspora Tour. Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, Institute of the
Americas.
Monday, October 13, 2014 from 12:30 PM to 5:30 PM (PDT)
San Diego, CA.
10. United States - Mexico Border States
10 border states along the border.
• Nearly 2,000-mile (3,169 km or 1,969
miles) of international border.
•The four U.S. border states (California,
Arizona, New Mexico, Texas) include 23
counties that touch the border
•The six Mexican border states (Baja
California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila,
Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas) include 39
municipalities that touch the border.
11. United States - Mexico Border States
The U.S.-Mexico border region is one of
the most important trade corridors for
North American businesses, representing
a $461 billion economic relationship
between the two countries in 2012.
The border region, defined as the 10 U.S.
and Mexican border states, represents a
combined population of nearly 100 million
people and as the world’s fourth largest
economy.
12. Economic Impacts and Expenditures
Shopping is the primary reason to cross into the U.S. for
Baja California residents. Depending on the study, 42 to
68% of border crossers identify shopping as the primary
reason for the visit into Southern California. Other reasons
are social in nature, like visiting family and friends, or are
work related.
During 2010, around 74 percent of crossers entered
California in their private vehicles, since a car allows them
freedom of movement between different shopping locations
in the U.S. as well as enough room to handle the volume of
their purchases.
The estimated average daily expenditures reported by Baja
California visitors into San Diego County and California in
various studies ranges from US $140 per trip to $300 per
trip. The current estimation uses an average amount of
expenditures per trip of $240 per trip as the base case
scenario.
13. Economic Impacts
The annual retail sales to Baja California Cross Border
Visitors are estimated considering an annual rate of
economic growth in Baja California of 2.3%, with a base
case spending of $178 per trip, a high case spending of
$300 per trip and a low case spending of $140 per trip.
The estimation considers that 42% of border crossers
identify shopping as the primary reason for the visit into
Southern California.
The implementation of el “Buen Fin” program is estimated
to have a reduction of 2% on annual retail sales to Baja
California Cross Border Visitors. While the Border Economic
Zone (BEZ) is expected to reduce annual retail sales by
Baja California CrossBorder visitors by al least 8% during
the first few years of the program.
14. Annual Retail Sales in California by Baja California Border Crossers
(Economic Growth Scenario)
9000000000
8000000000
7000000000
6000000000
5000000000
Dollars
4000000000
3000000000
2000000000
1000000000
0
year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Low Spend. Case
High Spend. Case
Base Spend. Case
El Buen Fin Program
BEZ
15. California Baja California Economic
Integration
The California and Baja California border region remains an
example of social and economic integration in North
America, where cross-border shopping is only one aspect of
that economic reality in the border region.
Mexican citizens cross frequently into the U.S. to shop,
work, dine, vacation, and visit friends and family. What
they spend on those visits results in a key contribution to
local border economies in California.
The results reveal annual retail sales by Baja California
Cross Border Visitors in the range of 5.9 to 6.8 billion
dollars along the U.S.-Mexico border, depending on the
complete implementation of the Border Economic Zone
(BEZ) in Baja California and the “El Buen Fin Program”.
The base case scenario shows that Baja California
consumer and economic drain into the U.S. market is
estimated at around 5.9 billion dollars in 2012 and 6.2
billion dollars in 2014, with the implementation of the
Border Economic Zone (BEZ).
22. The Calibaja Cross-Border BBuussiinneessss CCoommmmuunniittyy
AAlleejjaannddrroo DDííaazz--BBaauuttiissttaa,, PPhh..DD..
Professor of International Economics at Colef
and
Distinguished Researcher
National Council of Science and Technology
adiazbau@gmail.com
Presentation for the International Diaspora Engagement Alliance –
Diaspora Tour. Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, Institute of the
Americas.
Monday, October 13, 2014 from 12:30 PM to 5:30 PM (PDT)
San Diego, CA.