Back to the future. A retrospective look through the crystal ball at 6 Cyber security predictions from the rise Intrusion prevention to the loss of privacy

2. Visions of the Future?
2002 + 10 years from now
1.The rise of Intrusion Prevention Systems (IPS)
2.Widespread corporate use of instant messaging
3.Convergence of information warfare and information security
4.Cyber terrorism and directed energy weapons
5.Emergence of holographic storage, quantum cryptography or AI
6.The loss of privacy

3. Holistic Intrusion Prevention Systems
Predicted - 2004/2005
The emergence of holistic Intrusion Prevention and the demise of
Intruder Detection
Definition of holistic:
“Concerned with wholes rather than analysis or separation into parts”
Signature (or pattern) matching. This method is sometimes called “content-based”
and it incorporates what is often referred to as “deep packet inspection”
capabilities.
Behavioural assessment. This method is sometimes referred to as anomaly-based,
statistical-based, or rate-based

4. Holistic Intrusion Prevention Systems
Predicted - 2004/2005

5. Corporate use of Instant Messaging system, associated data
loss & threats
Predicted - 2006/2007
Instant messaging threats have taken malware delivery to a new
level. Yahoo!® Messenger, Skype™ and Windows Live® Messenger
are used as attack vectors for complex malware payloads.
Clickjacking:

6. Corporate use of Instant Messaging system, associated data
loss & threats
Predicted - 2006/2007

7. The convergence of Information Warfare and Information
Security
Predicted - 2007/2008
Strike back capabilities in Defensive Information Security systems
and adaptive security eco-systems
• Firewalls
• IPS/IDS
• Honeypots
Sidewinder provides an administrator with great flexibility to define
an extensive set of security "alarms", each with its corresponding
"strikeback" responses.

8. The convergence of Information Warfare and Information
Security
Historical - 1998
The hacktavists group Electronic Disturbance Theatre (EDT) On
September 9, 1998, launched a denial of service program called
FloodNet against the Pentagon.
Pentagon strikes back by
launching a denial of service
attack of its own.
A Java Applet named "Hostile
Applet" was placed in the
Pentagon' web site that was
designed to activate whenever
FloodNet was directed towards it.

9. The convergence of Information Warfare and Information
Security
Predicted - 2007/2008,
Actual - 2013/2014 – adaptive security ecosystems and maturity
Executive Order 13636 - Improving Critical Infrastructure
Cybersecurity

10. Cyber-terrorism, attacks on critical national infrastructure
using EMP/HERF weapons.
Predicted - 2009/2010
Possible use of direct energy weapons to disrupt national critical
infrastructure

11. Cyber-terrorism, attacks on critical national infrastructure
using EMP/HERF weapons.
Predicted - 2009/2010
H.E.R.F. – High Energy Radio Frequency [HERF guns are able to shoot
a high power radio signal at an electronic target and put it out of
function.]

12. Cyber-terrorism, attacks on critical national infrastructure
using EMP/HERF weapons.
Predicted - 2009/2010
E.M.P. – Electromagnetic Pulse [destroys the electronics of all
computer and communication systems in quite a large area]

13. Cyber-terrorism, attacks on critical national infrastructure
using EMP/HERF weapons.
Predicted - 2009/2010
E.M.P. – Electromagnetic Pulse [destroys the electronics of all
computer and communication systems in quite a large area]

14. Cyber-terrorism, attacks on critical national infrastructure
using EMP/HERF weapons.
Predicted - 2009/2010
No public disclosures of attacks using advanced weaponry

15. The emergence of holographic storage, quantum
communications/cryptography or artificial intelligence.
Predicted - 2011/2012
1. Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD)
2. Quantum computing, cryptography
3. Artificial Intelligence (AI) - Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Security concerns/interests:
• Threat analysis and response
• Data mining and pattern analysis (Big data)
• Adaptive heuristic penetration testing
• AI blended attacks and network defences
“I’ll be back”

16. The emergence of holographic storage, quantum
communications/cryptography or artificial intelligence.
Predicted - 2011/2012
1. Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD)
2. Quantum computing, cryptography
3. Artificial Intelligence (AI) - Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

17. The loss of Privacy.
Predicted - 2012/2013
Surveillance Society
“Taken away….”
Social Networks
“Given away…”

18. The loss of Privacy.
Predicted - 2012/2013
Eroding of civil liberties due to anti terrorism and national security
legislation

19. The loss of Privacy.
Predicted - 2012/2013
Rise of social media, citizens are giving away there personal data,
and privacy